RUPOK An Online Risk Tool for Road Network. Michal Bíl, Jan Kubeček, Rostislav Vodák
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1 RUPOK An Online Risk Tool for Road Network Michal Bíl, Jan Kubeček, Rostislav Vodák
2 RUPOK Online application Interactive webmap Spatial database Includes Hazards, Vulnerabilities, Risks List of critical infrastructures
3 RUPOK
4 A spatial database of road traffic interruptions Data on road traffic incidents Police Road administrators External systems Xml HTTP POST export The Integrated Traffic Information System for the Czech Republic Filters (works automatically) RUPOK ( CLIENT Spatial database
5 No. of interrupted road links Online data on traffic incidents We are able to monitor hazardous processes today Spatial databases provide online data on road closures Animation June 2013 flood Data source: NDIC Jan Feb Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 June 2013 flood
6 Computation of natural hazards along roads Combined Floods Landslides Snow
7 Computation of natural hazards along roads Combined Floods Landslides Snow
8 RUPOK - vulnerabilities DIRECT COSTS Motorway Costs in CZK Local road
9 RUPOK - vulnerabilities INDIRECT COSTS Detour time
10 RUPOK - vulnerabilities INDIRECT COSTS Traffic intensities
11 Cause of a road blockage RUPOK: Spatial database of road network interruptions ( present)
12 Landslide hazard on transportation links is directly related to A Exposure (spatial information from the official landslide database) B Recorded landslides (real events new traffic interruptions recorded by road administrators) C Regional landslide susceptibility (expert involved) D The road / railway link length
13 Exposure of transportation networks to landslides A Portion of road and railway sections within a landslide zone to all sections in the district [%] Roads Railways More than 50 % of transportation links in a given area are closer than 50 m to a landslide The values based on data from the spatial landslide database administered by the Czech Geological Survey
14 B Recorded landslides using online messages
15 Regions with higher susceptibility to landsliding C Geo-located data on traffic interruptions due to landsliding 7 Landslide susceptibility values as stated by an expert 1 5 Records within the red areas Landslides usually took place on natural slopes Records outside the red areas Landslides usually took place on road or railway embankments or rockfalls 10 Area with the highest landslide susceptibility
16 Transportation link length matters D The longer is a road link the higher is the landslide hazard (probability of a landslide occurrence along a link increases) The higher hazard due to the longer road link % % Road length: 13.6 km Road length: 6.7 km
17 Computation of natural hazards along roads A+B+C+D What is the probability of at least one traffic interruption caused by a landslide over the next year?
18 Visualization of landslide hazard along roads Generalized level Detailed level
19 Distribution of landslide hazard along roads for 3 periods Approx. 99 % of all road links The impacts of 1997 event
20 How reliable are the landslide hazard values? Landslide hazard will decrease over the following period Traffic interruptions are related to computed landslide hazard These links were not interrupted Underestimated landslide hazard (hazard close to 0, but the road interrupted twice)
21 Examples of landslide hazard
22 Landslide hazard values for 3 periods (1st , 2nd , 3rd ) Landslide hazard (%) Very low hazard, but a landslide occurred in the 3 rd period One landslide recorded No exposure to landslides The lowest regional landslide susceptibility (1) Very short road link A landslide occurred at an artificial slope
23 Landslide hazard values for 3 periods (1st , 2nd , 3rd ) Landslide hazard (%) Medium and constant hazard Three landslides recorded No exposure to landslides The lowest regional landslide susceptibility (1) Long road link Rockfalls on steep slopes above the road
24 Landslide hazard values for 3 periods (1st , 2nd , 3rd ) Landslide hazard (%) High but decreasing hazard Spatial data on landslides (official database) Two landslides recorded only within the 1 st period Road exposed to landslides The highest regional landslide susceptibility (10) Long road link
25 Issues related to state-wide landslide hazard computation State-wide coverage, but low detail (computations based on spatial data, no field works) Source of landsliding: natural or artificial slopes An automated system of traffic blockage data relies on filters which expect correctly written messages (some messages are not then received) Hazard values can be affected by one isolated extreme event
26 Summary A state-wide spatial database of road and railway traffic interruptions due to landsliding (RUPOK.CZ) Landslide hazard was computed for the entire Czech transportation network Data uncertainty even low landslide hazard does not mean that landsliding cannot occur at such places Transportation network administrators should be prepared for traffic blockages and should therefore focus on network resilience improvement as preventive measures
27 Related publications Andrášik, R., Bíl, M., Slovák, R. (2016). How (not) to work with small probabilities: Evaluating the individual risk of railway transport. Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice Proceedings of the 26th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL Bíl, M., Andrášik, R., Zahradníček, P., Kubeček, J., Sedoník, J., Štěpánek, P. (2016). Total water content thresholds for shallow landslides, Outer Western Carpathians. Landslides 13, Bíl, M., Vodák, R., Kubeček, J., Bílová, M., Sedoník, J., (2015): Evaluating Road Network Damage Caused by Natural Disasters in the Czech Republic between 1997 and Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 80, Vodák, R., Bíl, M., Sedoník, J. (2015). Network robustness and random processes. Physica A 428, Bíl, M., Kubeček, J., Andrášik, R., (2014): An Epidemiological Approach to Determining the Risk of Road Damage due to Landslides. Nat Haz. 73 (4),
28 Related publications
29 Thank you RUPOK.CZ Questions? Michal Bíl
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Climate Division: CA 1 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) Jan 52.4 35.4 43.9 69
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Climate Division: CA 2 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) Jan 53.5 37.6 45.6 78
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Climate Division: CA 6 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) Jan 66.1 38.3 52.2 91
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Climate Division: CA 1 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 1 Number of s (3) Jan 56.2 4.7 48.5 79 1962
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Climate Division: CA 1 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) Jan 50.2 31.2 40.7 65+
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Climate Division: CA 4 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) Jan 61.4 33.1 47.3 82+
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Climate Division: CA 5 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 59.3 31.5 45.4 80 1976
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Climate Division: CA 7 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 44.5 29.3 36.9 69 1951
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Climate Division: CA 2 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 53.3 37.1 45.2 77 1962
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Climate Division: CA 2 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 53.3 31.8 42.6 74+ 1975
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Climate Division: CA 2 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 53.7 32.7 43.2 79 1962
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Climate Division: CA 6 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 68.5 45.7 57.1 90 1971
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Climate Division: CA 7 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 56.0 35.7 45.9 83 1975
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Climate Division: CA 7 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 1 Number of s (3) 64.8 45.4 55.1 85 1971
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Climate Division: CA 7 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 1 Number of s (3) 65.5 38.7 52.1 87 1962
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Climate Division: CA 7 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 58.8 34.3 46.6 81+ 1948
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Climate Division: CA 7 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 70.4 44.2 57.3 95 1971
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Climate Division: CA 4 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) Jan 56.4 43.6 50.0 77
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Climate Division: CA 7 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) Jan 54.4 36.9 45.7 77+
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