Pacific Ocean Boundary Ecosystems & Climate Study
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1 Pacific Ocean Boundary Ecosystems & Climate Study This research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation and US GLOBEC Program through the Physical and Biological Oceanography programs An international effort that shares data and methods PIs: E. Di Lorenzo, A. Bracco, J. Keister, P.T. Strub, A. Thomas, P.J.S. Franks NOAA Co-PIs: S. Bograd, W. Peterson, R. Mendelssohn, F. Schwing Japanese Collaborators: S. Chiba, Y. Sasai, H. Sasaki, M. Nonaka, B. Taguchi, A. Ishida South American Collaborators: O. Pizarro, R. Escribano, J. Rutllant, S. Hormazabal, V. Montecino Canadian Collaborators: D. Mackas, M. Foreman, A. Pena, W. Crawford
2 GOALS of POBEX 1) Understand, quantify and compare how large-scale climate variability has affected boundary ecosystems in the Pacific 2) Explore the range of uncertainties in responses of these ecosystems to climate change Main HYPOTHESIS Large-scale Climate Variability and Change Regional boundary ocean processes Ecosystem Dynamics upwelling, mixing 1 mesoscale structure 2 phytoplankton transport dynamics zooplankton
3 Japanese Earth Simulator Global Eddy-Resolving Model (OFES) 10 km resolution Modeling approach of POBEX Surface Ocean Currents
4 Modeling approach of POBEX Japanese Earth Simulator Global Eddy-Resolving Model (OFES) 10 km resolution KOE NEPD ROMS-NPZD PASSIVE Tracer ROMS-NPZD PASSIVE Tracer PCCS Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere ROMS-RSM ROMS-NPZD PASSIVE Tracer Surface Ocean Currents
5 Modeling approach of POBEX Regional Models with Passive Tracers 1 No coherent long-term observations exist to date across boundary region POBEX provides the first high-resolution modeling attempt Indices of Transport and Upwelling Statistics 2 Growing evidence lower-trophic levels are sensitive to changes in transport and connectivity Ecosystem Observed Timeseries (e.g. zooplankton)
6 Transport and Upwelling Statistics for Pacific Boundaries ROMS-GOA ROMS-Newport Combes et al., 2009, JPO, 39(4), Interannual and decadal variations in cross-shore mixing in the Gulf of Alaska. ROMS-CCS Keister et al., 2010, GCB, submitted Zooplankton species composition linked to ocean transport in the Northern California Current Combes et al., 2010, JPO, submitted Cross-shore transport variability in the California Current: Ekman upwelling vs. eddy regime Combes et al., 2010, JPO, submitted Modeling interannual and decadal variability in the Humboldt Current upwelling system. ROMS-PCCS
7 Transport and Upwelling Statistics for Pacific Boundaries
8 Transport and Upwelling Statistics for Pacific Boundaries
9 Transport and Upwelling Statistics for Pacific Boundaries Combes et al, submitted
10 EXAMPLE of testing Hypotheses on the link between changes in transport and ecosystems: The HYPOTHESIS the Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the intrusion of warm/cold copepod species in the Northern California Current A warmer coastal waters PDO Index colder coastal waters B more warm water community CCI Copepod Community Index anomaly more cold water community
11 EXAMPLE of testing Hypotheses on the link between changes in transport and ecosystems The TEST use model passive tracers to track the warm/cold copepod species intrusions Keister et al., 2010, Global Change Biology, submitted Zooplankton species composition linked to ocean transport in the Northern California Current
12 EXAMPLE of testing Hypotheses on the link between changes in transport and ecosystems The TEST use model passive tracers to track the warm/cold copepod species intrusions Keister et al., 2010, Global Change Biology, submitted Zooplankton species composition linked to ocean transport in the Northern California Current
13 Low-Frequency Zooplankton and Transport Dynamics in the KOE S. Chiba (JAMSTEC, Japan), J. Keister (UW, USA) H. Song (UCSD), B. Taguchi (JAMSTEC), V. Combes and E. Di Lorenzo(GaTech, USA) 1 Generate Forward ROMS-KOE integration OFES Model 10 km resolution Passive Tracer Study Area 2 Perform Adjoint integration to assess where water masses are coming from in regions 1 and 2 3 Diagnose relationship between changes in Zooplankton and source waters
14 Research updates and findings:
15 Model Data Archive available on Georgia Tech OpenDAP Server
16 Challenges of basin-scale synthesis research Problems 1)The need for data from multiple collaborators from many nations. 2)The ability (inability) of international colleagues to focus on projects together. Solutions 1)Open collaboration and data-sharing 2)(a wish ) Increased availability of funding that can cross country-boarders.
17 Pacific Ocean Boundary Ecosystems & Climate Study This research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation and US GLOBEC Program through the Physical and Biological Oceanography programs An international effort that shares data and methods PIs: E. Di Lorenzo, A. Bracco, J. Keister, P.T. Strub, A. Thomas, P.J.S. Franks NOAA Co-PIs: S. Bograd, W. Peterson, R. Mendelssohn, F. Schwing Japanese Collaborators: S. Chiba, Y. Sasai, H. Sasaki, M. Nonaka, B. Taguchi, A. Ishida South American Collaborators: O. Pizarro, R. Escribano, J. Rutllant, S. Hormazabal, V. Montecino Canadian Collaborators: D. Mackas, M. Foreman, A. Pena, W. Crawford
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