Conservation planning for adaptation to climate change: an operational framework

Transcription

1 Conservation planning for adaptation to climate change: an operational framework Bob Pressey & Steve Williams, Jeremy Vanderwal, Stephen Garnett, Ary Hoffmann, Jeff Price, John Scott, Luke Shoo, Collin Storlie, Martin Taylor, Rachel Warren, Brendan Wintle, Colin Yates, Diogo Alagador, Lorena Falconi

2 IPCC identified natural ecosystems as the most vulnerable sector (I was very concerned about the message from Martin Parry talk where funding for adaptation in this sector was ignored despite the fact that water, human health, primary industries, coastal protection ALL rely heavily on healthy functioning ecosystems)

3 Early Predictions Globally 18 35% of species predicted to be highly vulnerable to extinction due to climate change Thomas et al. 2004, Nature

4 How do we deal with this threat? Conservation planning for climate change (terrestrial) Adaptation Mitigation Spatial / Temporal design Implementation Management Emission reduction Carbon sequestration Biofuels Carbon credits

5 Effective adaptation actions aimed at minimising the loss of biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem function rely on an understanding of: 1. the spatial/temporal patterns of biodiversity 2. the processes causing these patterns 3. links between biodiversity and ecosystem functions and resilience 4. how changes will impact on these processes 5. dynamic conservation planning that balances tradeoffs and provides informed prioritisation options (both in space and time) of adaptive actions that maximise the bang-for-our-buck.

6 Informed adaptation We need to carefully assess the vulnerability of species, habitats, processes and ecosystems so we can prioritise our responses What? Where? When? Why? Is there anything we can do?

7 What do we need? 1. Predictions about responses of species, habitats and ecosystem processes (e.g. movements of geographical ranges, contraction into refugia, responses to altered patch dynamics of rainfall, flowering, fire) 2. New patterns and combinations of threats and synergies (e.g. agriculture, habitat fragmentation, sea level rise, altered fire regimes + invasive species)

8 What do we need? 3. New targets for species and other features (e.g. to reflect vulnerability to new threats, population sizes for adaptation, populations pre-adapted to change) 5. Spatial and temporal priorities for protection of internal refugia, climatic gradients to external refugia (these will vary in steepness, length, and ease of protection) 6. Spatial & temporal priorities for restoration 7. Spatial & temporal priorities for translocation

9 Assessing vulnerability and predicting impacts is VERYcomplex but it IS possible.

10 Environmental gradients to capture the maximum biodiversity values for the minimum costs

11 Some remaining challenges in design of gradients for climate change Planning ahead: understanding the relative efficiency of planning ahead vs planning for now, then adding areas for adaptation later (Hannah et al. 2007) Variable effectiveness of gradients limited dispersal rates, synergies with habitat fragmentation, possible need for translocation, differing management needs and effectiveness, restoration

12 More challenges What are appropriate planning responses to the uncertainty inherent in models of climate change and biological responses? Climatic responses can be modeled for only a minority of species; for the others, generic design (with even less certain effectiveness) is needed Location and design of gradients, combined with land use patterns, determine which species will be able to adjust their distributions (especially important in regions with many narrow endemics)

13 And Tradeoffs necessary between alternative conservation values (elements of biodiversity pattern and process) exacerbated by ongoing attrition of biodiversity Threat (likelihood or imminence)

14 Conservation Planning & Climate Change - workshop ASPECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Species / Habitats / Processes responses to changing climate Interactions between climate change and other threatening processes CONSERVATION PLANNING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Objectives for planning and management Regional design for protection Management of conservation areas Planning and management under uncertainty Tools to balance targets, trade-offs, uncertainty and costs Performance measures for planning and management

15 Will predicted future climate affect this species? Is there sufficient ecological plasticity? Is there sufficient evolutionary potential? Is there useful geographic variation? Are there adequate internal refugia? Is there suitable climate elsewhere? Is there a suitable movement pathway?

16 Assessing the vulnerability of rainforest biodiversity to climate change: Will adaptation be enough? Steve Williams, Jeremy VanDerWal, Bob Pressey & Luke Shoo Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change School of Marine & Tropical Biology James Cook University Townsville

17

18

19 Most biologically rich area in Australia with many unique species Mike Trenerry ~ 10,000 sq km rainforest

20 Vertebrate Species Richness Temperature / Elevation Number of Species Elevation (m)

21 Assessing vulnerability and predicting impacts on a species is complex.

22 Lemuroid Ringtail Possum Williams & VanDerWal, in prep; VanDerWal et al, 2009, Am Nat.

23 Rainforest Species Richness (196 species) Worst 0 Average Species Richness Best

24 Number of crit. endangered species - changes in total population size Huge variation between best and worst case % species Crit Endangered and only surviving in small refugia

25 Changes in total population size 35 % OK 10 % Vulnerable 11 % Endangered 14 % Critically Endangered 30% Extinct

26 Climatic Extreme Events So far, most research on predicting the impacts of climate change has used the increase in measures of average climate such as mean annual temperature. However, most biological impacts will depend on the extremes: Heat waves Drought Fires

27 Extreme temperature events at 1200 m site: The number of consecutive days where daily maximums were above the 90th percentile (~28 º C) No Lemuroids Lots of Lemuroids Few Lemuroids

28 What adaptation actions are possible to protect a system where 84% of the species rely on cool refugia?

29 Cool Refugia Where will they be? How big do they need to be to be effective? Which species will benefit? What factors will threaten these refugia? How do we protect, enhance and manage them?

30 Cool Refugia

31 Cool Refugia A map showing the maximum temperature actually experienced by an organism in any part of the region Shoo, Vanderwal & Williams. Glob Change Biol 2010

32 Existing thermal refugia

33 High value refugia already in protected area: Biodiversity refugia based on Degraded landscape with overlayed Manage other distributions stressors of all potential to be high value High 200 value such rainforest as refugia weeds/ferals vertebrates refugia and connection NOT in to protected modelled area: using averaged other refugia: Maxent Potential future for assisted distributions of Potential 7 Land translocation GCMs acquisition for at acquisition 4 deg to C &/or these off increase Off-reserve refugia management agreements Maintain Habitat corridors restoration Re-establish refuge corridor for movement and gene flow

34 Spatial / Temporal Dynamics Conservation planning needs consideration of both spatial and temporal dynamics across scales ranging from a single log to the whole continent (this is now becoming possible with sophisticated computing and modelling techniques developed in the CTBCC)

35 Spatial & Temporal Dynamics Gouldian Finch (Erythrura gouldiae) Collaboration: CTBCC Vanderwal, Williams CSIRO Kutt, Reside Australian Wildlife Conservancy Spatial & Temoral Dynamics Refugia Climatic Extremes Biogeographic barriers Connectivity Climate variability Population size in refugia Dispersal / gene flow potential

36

37 Beyond the single species 250+ tropical savanna birds Number of overlapping 90 th percenble refugia Current reserve system?

38 Beyond the single species 250+ tropical savanna birds Number of overlapping 90 th percenble refugia Current reserve system?

39 Intrinsic Adaptation / Resilience How much potential does each species have to adapt via: ecological flexibility evolutionary capacity resilience

40

41 Sensitivity & Resilience Physiology Microhabitat buffering based on field data on activity patterns and microhabitat utilisation and measurement How much of does buffering the inclusion of these factors change relative vulnerability and thereby our conservation planning targets and priorities? Spatial scale of operation (area of viable pop.) Dispersal ability Ecological Specialisation Reproductive characteristics Distribution modelling with uncertainty (average 10 GCMs, 3 scenarios, 10 climate variables, vegetation; model eval stats & expert)

42 TAXA SPECIES Common_name Rank FROG Taudactylus rheophilus Northern Tinkerfrog BIRD Prionodura newtoniana Golden Bowerbird 2 +9 BIRD Sericornis keri Atherton Scrubwren FROG Cophixalus aenigma Tapping Nursery-Frog 4 - FROG Cophixalus exiguus Bloomfield Nursery-Frog 5 +9 FROG Cophixalus hosmeri Pipping Nursery-Frog 6-5 FROG Cophixalus neglectus Tangerine Nursery-Frog 7-1 MAMM Dasyurus maculatus Spotted-tailed Quoll FROG Mixophyes carbinensis. 9-5 BIRD Acanthiza katherina Mountain Thornbill BIRD Colluricincla boweri Bowers Shrike-Thrush BIRD Oreoscopus gutturalis Fernwren FROG Cophixalus monticola Mountain Top Nursery-Frog FROG Cophixalus concinnus Beautiful Nursery-Frog REPT Techmarscincus jigurru Bartle Frere Skink 15-13

43 Utilising much more sophisticated modelling gives a more robust picture with quantitative estimates of uncertainty. (qualitative results not much different) Prioritisation DOES need to consider individual species characteristics and landscape/ microhabitat buffering in refugia very important. Landscape refugia & extreme events (and the interaction) will be a crucial component of adaptation management to protect Australia s biodiversity.