The Role of Wilderness in Climate Change Adaptation

Transcription

1 The Role of Wilderness in Climate Change Adaptation A Case Study of the Northern Rockies Greg Aplet, Bo Wilmer

2 Goal: Sustaining Ecosystem Services Sustaining the full suite of benefits we receive from wildlands. provisioning services (e.g., food, drug precursors, renewable energy) regulating services (e.g., carbon sequestration, waste decomposition, nutrient cycling) supporting services (e.g., water purification, crop pollination, pest control) cultural services (e.g., recreation, scientific discovery, spiritual inspiration) preserving services (e.g., biodiversity protection, hedging against uncertainty)

3 Sustainability: Old problem, new urgency Sustainability, by my definition, refers to maintenance of the potential for our land and water ecosystems to produce the same quantity and quality of goods and services in perpetuity. Preventing degradation of productive capacity. Preventing loss of biodiversity. J. F. Franklin (1993)

4 What do we mean by wildlands? Controlled Self-willed Urban Novel Wilderness Backcountry Frontcountry Rural Ecological Condition Pristine

5 The Land Use Gradient Controlled Self-willed C&O Canal Vacant Lot Downtown Chesapeake Bay Fire-excluded Ponderosa Pine Forest Pine Plantation Arctic Refuge Everglades Curtis Prairie Novel Pristine Ecological Condition

6 Directions of Management Controlled Self-willed Novel Pristine

7 Management Options Under Global Change Controlled Self-willed Novel Ecological Condition Pristine Pressure of Global Change Climate Change Invasive Species Pollution Fragmentation/Land-use

8 Adaptation One goal: Sustaining ecosystem services by maintaining productive capacity and biodiversity. A diversity of approaches: Resist Change Guide Change Accept Change A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change. IPCC Adaptation Report

9 A Portfolio of Approaches: IUCN Protected Area Categories Category Ia: Category Ib: Category II: Category III: Category IV: Category V: Category VI: Strict nature reserve Wilderness area National park Natural monument Habitat / species management area Protected land/seascape Managed resource protected area

10 Treatment Constraints

11 A Balanced Allocation Ia. Strict Nature Preserve Ib. Wilderness Area II. National Park III. Natural Monument IV. Habitat Mgmt. Area V. Land/Seascape VI. Managed Resource Protected Area Unprotected

12 The Ideal Experimental Landscape Well balanced in area Evenly distributed across environmental gradients Well connected across environmental gradients Acres (1000s) >11000 Elevation (feet) VI V IV III III I

13 So, how balanced is our portfolio?

14 What about the Northern Rockies?

15 The Northern Rockies: A relative wealth of protected areas

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17 Protected Area Balance in the Northern Rockies

18 Elevational Representation 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 Acres 10,000,000 8,000,000 Ia Ib II III IV V VI NA 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, Elevation

19 Ia

20 30.0% Category Ia. Strict Nature Reserves 25.0% 20.0% Full Range Ia 15.0% Best Connected Patch 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%

21 Ib

22 30.0% Category Ib. Wilderness Areas 25.0% 20.0% Full Range Ib 15.0% Best Connected Patch 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%

23 II

24 30.0% Category II: National Parks 25.0% 20.0% Full Range II 15.0% Best Connected Patch 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%

25 VI

26 Latitudinal Representation Acres Ia Ib II III IV V VI NA Latitude (degrees)

27

28

29 Conclusion: Northern Rockies Case Study A relative wealth of protected areas Not well balanced Some classes connect well across elevation All classes need latitudinal connectivity

30 Climate Change Adaptation and Wilderness An experimental approach with wilderness as one part One goal: Sustaining ecosystem services by preventing the loss of productive capacity and biodiversity Wilderness will play a critical role Humility, health, high elevation Better connectivity needed for all protected areas