45.6% 2.5% Likely Obama

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1 Colorado Results For 9/21/2012-9/22/2012 Contact: Doug Kaplan, Executive Summary On the afternoon and evenings of September 21 22, 2012, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm, and Capitol Correspondent conducted a survey of 765 likely voters in Colorado regarding their likely vote for a given presidential candidate. The poll carries a margin of error of 3.4%. Overall, among likely voters, holds a 4.7% lead at 50.2% compared to s 45.5%, with 4.3% of likely voters still undecided % likely 2.5% Presidential Race 2.1% likely 4.3% Undecided 0.7% likely Romney The group of undecided voters is likely larger than 4.3%, given that another 2.8% indicated only a somewhat preference towards a given candidate. A summary of the results is presented in the following pages. 1.4% Romney 43.4% likely Romney 1

2 Survey Questions 1. Are you registered to vote? (Yes, No) No crosstabs available for this question because if an individual answered no, the questionnaire stopped. 2. How likely are you to vote in this year s presidential elections? ( unlikely, Unlikely, unlikely, likely,, likely) When looking at just the very likely category, s lead declines to +1.9%, with 3.7% of likely voters still undecided. Likelihood to vote - overall sample Likelihood to vote 73.3% % 42.3% 7 6 unlikely % 3.8% 1.9% 1.9% 45.4% likely % 1.5% 3.7% 0.7% 1.5% % 4. likely likely Undecided likely Romney Romney likely Romney unlikely 0.7% Unlikely 1.1% unlikely likely likely Note: The unlikely, Unlikely, likely, and categories lacked sufficient sample size and are therefore not reported in the presidential crosstabulation. 2

3 3. In which party are you either registered to vote or do you consider yourself a member of? (Democrat, Republican, independent or minority party) holds a 77. to 18.3% advantage among Democrats, whereas Romney holds a 86.8% to 11.5% advantage among Republicans. The current slight edge for is stemming from Independent/Other voters. Political affiliation - overall sample % Democrat Political Affiliation 4.8% % Independe.. Republican % 50.4% % 0.9% 6.7% 1.8% 1.7% 2.7% 1.7% 84.1% 28.6% Party affiliation % likely Likel.. likely Oba.. Undecided likely Ro.. Romney likely Romney 200 Political affiliation by likelihood to vote % Democrat Republican Independent/Other 50 0 Democrat Republican Independent/Other % unlikely 1.8% Unlikely 1.8% likely 78.6% likely 10.3% unlikely 1.6% unlikely 0.8% likely 87.3% likely 21. unlikely 0.6% Unlikely 1.3% unlikely 9.6% likely 67.5% likely 3

4 4. What race do you identify yourself as? (White/Caucasian, African-American, Hispanic, Asian, Other) The poll makeup was 83.8% White, 9.1% Hispanic, and 7.1% Other or Refuse. On the whole, Romney holds a 45. to 44.2% lead among very likely White voters, and holds a 53.3% to 36.7% lead among very likely Hispanic voters and a 45.5% to 31.8% very likely Other race voters. 9 Race - overall sample 6 Race % White % % 1.5% 2.6% 4.1% 1.1% 1.5% Hispanic % 6.7% 3.3% 36.7% % 7.1% White Hispanic Other Other 4 2 likely 4.5% likely 9.1% Undecided likely Romney 31.8% 9.1% Romney likely Romney 4

5 5. Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation? (Roman Catholic, Protestant/other non-denominational Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Other/no affiliation) The largest voting groups by religious affiliation are Protestant/Other Christian, Not affiliated or Other, and Catholic. Of these groups, holds a 8.3% lead among likely voters and a 64.4% to 29.6% lead among voters not affiliated with a specific religion. On the other hand, Romney strength stems from Protestant/Other Christian voters, where he holds a 20.4% lead. Religious Affiliation - overall sample Religious Affiliation 45% 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% 17.1% 42.8% 35.9% Catholic Protestant/Ot her Christian Jewish % 35.2% % 2.8% 4.2% 3.5% 6.3% 3.5% 37.5% 54.9% % Catholic Protestant/Other Christian 3. Jewish 1.1% Muslim Other/Not affiliated Other/Not affiliated 4 2 likely 1.7% 6.8% likely 5.9% Undecided likely Romney 0.8% Romney Note: sample size on Muslim voters was not large enough to warrant crosstabulation reporting. 28.8% likely Romney 5

6 6. How old are you? (18-29, 30-49, 50-64, Over 65) Overall, has an advantage among the under 50 voting group, while Romney gains his advantage among the over 50 age group. The distinctions are most apparent when looking at the younger voting age population (18-29) in comparison to the older voting age population (65+), where holds a 28 point advantage among the former, while Romney has a 15 point advantage among the latter. Age - overall sample Age group 4 35% 40.8% % % % 41.8% 2.8% 2.8% 5.7% 1.4% 2.1% 46.9% 45.9% 15% 15.5% 14.6% % 3.1% 51.1% % 2.1% 8.5% 2.1% 5% likely likely Undecided likely Romney Romney likely Romney 6

7 7. What is your Gender? (Male, Female) Overall, Romney holds a lead among men of 47.9% to 47.7%, whereas has a lead among women by a 50.9% to 44.4% margin. Gender - overall sample 6 Gender 5 45% Men % 46.7% 35% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 1.2% 3 25% % 40.2% 2 Women 15% % 4.7% 1.8% 2.4% 5% Men Women likely likely Undecided likely Romney Romney likely Romney 7

8 8. If the presidential election were held today, whom would you vote for? ( likely,, likely, Undecided, likely Romney, Romney, likely Romney) The dashboard below summarizes the survey. Overall, as has always been the case, it appears the currently undecided will decide the race. Gender Political Affiliation Men Women % 4.2% 50.3% 4.2% 0.6% 4.2% 4.7% 1.8% 46.7% 1.2% 40.2% 2.4% Indep.. Repu.. Dem.. % of.. % of.. % of % 50.4% % 5.9% 4.8% 1.8% 6.7% % % 1.7% 16.3% 84.1% 28.6% Catholic Protestant/Ot her Christian Jewish Other/Not affiliated likely.. Somew hat lik.. Undec.. Somew hat lik.. Romn.. likely.. likely.. Somew hat lik.. Undec.. Somew hat lik.. Romn.. likely.. likely Somew hat likely.. Undec.. Somew hat likely.. Romn.. likely Romn.. Presidential Race % 2.5% 2.1% 4.3% % o.. % o.. %.. % o Religious Affiliation 52.1% 37.5% 4.2% 6.3% 35.2% 54.9% 2.8% 3.5% 3.5% % 1.7% 6.8% 5.9% 28.8% 0.8% White Hispanic Other 5 likely.. Somew hat lik.. Undec.. Somew hat lik.. Romn.. likely.. likely Oba.. Oba.. Some what likely.. 0.7% Unde.. Some what likely.. Rom.. likely Rom.. 1.4% 43.4% % of.. % of.. % of Race 44.2% % 2.6% 4.1% 1.1% 1.5% 53.3% 36.7% 6.7% 3.3% 45.5% 31.8% 4.5% 9.1% 9.1% Note: the statistical methodology comprised weighing sex and age for anticipated voting proportions for the 2012 General Election. 8

9 Colorado Crosstabs, Sep 25, 2012 Wednesday September 26 15:00: Page 1 log type: smcl opened on: 26 Sep 2012, 15:00:04. tab2 howlikelytovote partyaffiliation race religiousaffiliation age sex ra ce_ presidentialelection, cell chi2 lrchi2 nofreq - tabulation of howlikelytovote by partyaffiliation How likely to Party affiliation? vote? Democrat Indepdend Republica Total likely unlikely Unlikely likely unlikely Total Pearson chi2( 8) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 8) =. - tabulation of howlikelytovote by race How likely to Race? vote? Total likely unlikely Unlikely likely unlikely Total Pearson chi2( 16) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 16) =. - tabulation of howlikelytovote by religiousaffiliation How likely to Religious affiliation? vote? Catholic Jewish Muslim Other Protestan Total likely unlikely Unlikely likely unlikely

10 Colorado Crosstabs, Sep 25, 2012 Wednesday September 26 15:00: Page 2 Total Pearson chi2( 16) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 16) =. - tabulation of howlikelytovote by age How likely to Age? vote? Total likely unlikely Unlikely likely unlikely Total Pearson chi2( 12) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 12) =. - tabulation of howlikelytovote by sex How likely to Sex? vote? Female Male Total likely unlikely Unlikely likely unlikely Total Pearson chi2( 4) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) =. - tabulation of howlikelytovote by race_ How likely to Race_ vote? Hispanic Other White Total likely unlikely Unlikely likely unlikely Total Pearson chi2( 8) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 8) =. - tabulation of howlikelytovote by presidentialelection

11 Colorado Crosstabs, Sep 25, 2012 Wednesday September 26 15:00: Page 3 How likely to Presidential election vote? 0 L L Romney SL SL Romney U ndecided VL VL Romney Total likely unlikely Unlikely likely unlikely Total Pearson chi2( 28) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 28) =. - tabulation of partyaffiliation by race Race? Party affiliation? Total Democrat Indepdendent/Other Republican Total Pearson chi2( 8) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 8) =. - tabulation of partyaffiliation by religiousaffiliation Religious affiliation? Party affiliation? Catholic Jewish Muslim Other Protestan Total Democrat Indepdendent/Other Republican Total Pearson chi2( 8) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 8) = Pr = tabulation of partyaffiliation by age

12 Colorado Crosstabs, Sep 25, 2012 Wednesday September 26 15:00: Page 4 Age? Party affiliation? Total Democrat Indepdendent/Other Republican Total Pearson chi2( 6) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 6) = Pr = tabulation of partyaffiliation by sex Sex? Party affiliation? Female Male Total Democrat Indepdendent/Other Republican Total Pearson chi2( 2) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 2) = Pr = tabulation of partyaffiliation by race_ Race_ Party affiliation? Hispanic Other White Total Democrat Indepdendent/Other Republican Total Pearson chi2( 4) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = Pr = tabulation of partyaffiliation by presidentialelection Presidential election Party affiliation? 0 L L Romney SL SL Romney Undecided VL VL Romney Total Democrat Indepdendent/Other Republican Total Pearson chi2( 14) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 14) =. - tabulation of race by religiousaffiliation

13 Colorado Crosstabs, Sep 25, 2012 Wednesday September 26 15:00: Page 5 al Religious affiliation? Race? Catholic Jewish Muslim Other Protestan Tot Total Pearson chi2( 16) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 16) =. - tabulation of race by age Age? Race? Total Total Pearson chi2( 12) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 12) =. - tabulation of race by sex Sex? Race? Female Male Total Total Pearson chi2( 4) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) =. - tabulation of race by race_ Race_ Race? Hispanic Other White Total Total

14 Colorado Crosstabs, Sep 25, 2012 Wednesday September 26 15:00: Page 6 Pearson chi2( 6) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 6) =. - tabulation of race by presidentialelection Presidential election Race? 0 L L Romney SL SL Romney Undecide d VL VL Romney Total Total Pearson chi2( 28) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 28) =. - tabulation of religiousaffiliation by age al Religious Age? affiliation? Tot Catholic Jewish Muslim Other Protestant/Other Chri Total Pearson chi2( 12) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 12) =. - tabulation of religiousaffiliation by sex Religious Sex? affiliation? Female Male Total Catholic Jewish Muslim Other Protestant/Other Chri Total

15 Colorado Crosstabs, Sep 25, 2012 Wednesday September 26 15:00: Page 7 Pearson chi2( 4) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) =. - tabulation of religiousaffiliation by race_ Religious Race_ affiliation? Hispanic Other White Total Catholic Jewish Muslim Other Protestant/Other Chri Total Pearson chi2( 8) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 8) =. - tabulation of religiousaffiliation by presidentialelection Religious Presidential electi on affiliation? 0 L L Romney SL SL Romne y Undecided VL VL Romney Total Catholic Jewish Muslim Other Protestant/Other Chri Total Pearson chi2( 28) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 28) =. - tabulation of age by sex Sex? Age? Female Male Total Total Pearson chi2( 3) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 3) = Pr = tabulation of age by race_

16 Colorado Crosstabs, Sep 25, 2012 Wednesday September 26 15:00: Page 8 Race_ Age? Hispanic Other White Total Total Pearson chi2( 6) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 6) = Pr = tabulation of age by presidentialelection Presidential election Age? 0 L L Romney SL SL Romney Undecide d VL VL Romney Total Total Pearson chi2( 21) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 21) =. - tabulation of sex by race_ Race_ Sex? Hispanic Other White Total Female Male Total Pearson chi2( 2) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 2) = Pr = tabulation of sex by presidentialelection Presidential election Sex? 0 L L Romney SL SL Romney Undecide d VL VL Romney Total Female Male Total

17 Colorado Crosstabs, Sep 25, 2012 Wednesday September 26 15:00: Page 9 Pearson chi2( 7) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 7) =. - tabulation of race_ by presidentialelection Presidential election Race_ 0 L L Romney SL SL Romney Undecide d VL VL Romney Total Hispanic Other White Total Pearson chi2( 14) = Pr = likelihood-ratio chi2( 14) =.. log type: smcl closed on: 26 Sep 2012, 15:00:18