Growth and future perspectives of Urban Agglomerations and cities in Andhra Pradesh: Census Data Analysis

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1 Introduction Growth and future perspectives of Urban Agglomerations and cities in Andhra Pradesh: Census Data Analysis By C.P.Prakasam P.Ramani International Institute for Population Sciences Deonar, Mumbai Urbanization is a natural consequence of economic changes that take place in state or country, which contributes population development. At the same time, urbanization helps to contribute the growth process at large. The positive role of urbanization is often overshadowed by the evident deterioration in the physical environment and quality of life in the urban areas caused by widening gap between demand and supply of essential services and infrastructure. This results from increasing population, pressure on urban centers. The pressure of population on urban areas is mainly due to rural poverty and rural-urban migration, more so to million plus cities. Many detailed planning problems have arisen in the context of rapid growth of population of cities, urban agglomeration (U.A) and million plus cities. This rapid growth of cities and urban agglomerations have led to concentration of population at a particular location and created imbalance in the total development. Further this concentration of population at different nodes has brought out various demographic, socio-economic problems. As a minimum requirement, planner and researchers should know the growth of urban agglomerations (UA) in the past and will grow in future. The cause and consequence of growth of population in the cities and urban agglomerations have been discussed at length by various authors viz: Bose Ashish (1978), Jain M.K (1977), Jain M.K. et.al, (1993), Mitra Ashok (1980), Prakasam, Upadhyay, (1987), Bhagat R., B., (2002, 2004). Majority of these studies deals with urban growth and growth of small towns. In this study an attempt is made to look in to the recent data collected from Census and on the basis of these data sets project future growth of urban agglomerations and cities in Andhra Pradesh. Urban Scenario in Andhra Pradesh According to recent census count Andhra Pradesh comprises 27.8 percent urban population and the rest in rural areas. Percent urban population increased from in 1961 to in 2001 (Table 1). Four urban agglomerations (U.A) in 1971 increased to 37 in The exponential growth rate of UA in Andhra Pradesh (Table 1) rises from 2.92 in 1971 to 3.96 in 1981 declines to 1.37 during 2001.Decennial in exponential growth rate and increase in number of urban agglomerations indicates that small towns and class I cities are emerging in to Urban agglomerations and changes in classification in definitions of UA from one decade to another, Urban-rural migration; better infrastructure facilities in urban areas and economic and industrial development in UA are few among many contributory factors for Urban and city growth.

2 Census Year Census Year Total Number of U.A Table: 1: Trends in Urbanization Andhra Pradesh Total Population Total Urban Population Percent Decennial Growth Urban Population Absolute Percent Annual Exponential Growth Rate (4 U.A) (4 U.A.) (15 U.A.) (37 U.A.) Source: Provisional Population Totals, Paper-2 of 2001, Rural-Urban Distribution of Population, Series-29, Census of India-2001 Urban Population Growth by Size Class of Towns and Cities Urban population is classified in to six classes in Indian census. The Class I comprises cities i.e., urban places having 100,000 and more population. Class I is further divided in to urban agglomerations and Cities. Class II comprises population 50,000-99,999 and Class III with 20,000 to 49,999. Class II and Class III together is also called Medium Towns. Class IV and Class V comprises with population 10,000 to 19,999 and 5, respectively. Less than 5,000 marked as Class VI includes urban areas. Table 2 gives number of urban agglomerations/cities/ towns and population in each size class in Andhra Pradesh from 1901 to Table: 2: Number of Urban Areas/Cities and Percentage of Population in each Size-class in Andhra Pradesh: *Excludes Class I: 4 UA in 1971, 4 UA in 1981, 15 UA in 1981 and 37 UA in All Classes Class I Class II Class III Class IV Class V Class IV U.A. U.A. U.A. U.A * * * * Source: Provisional Population Totals, Paper-2 of 2001, Rural-Urban Distribution of Population, Series-29, Census of India-2001 U.A. U.A. U.A

3 It has been observed from Table 2 that Class I number of urban areas/cities (Large towns) found to be very low and increased up to 39 in 2001.Same trend was observed with Medium Towns (Class II and Class III). There was substantial decline in number of small towns (Class IV, Class V) after Percentage of population in Class I cities/towns found to be around 50 percent in 1971 increased to 75 percent in From the table 2 it was evident that there is shift in population from small towns to Class I cities contributing decline in number and percentage of population in Small and Medium towns during Urban concentration found to be more in Class I and UA in Andhra Pradesh in the recent periods (Table 2). Fig: 1: Percent Urban Population by Size Class in Andhra Pradesh Percent UA Population by Size Class in Andhra Pradesh Percent Population Census Years ( ) Class I Class II Class III Class IV Class V Class VI Urban Rural Growth in Andhra Pradesh It has been observed from Table 3 that in 1971 urban growth rate was increased to in 1981 declined to in Decline in urban growth rate found to be more than rural growth rate. The decline in growth rate of urban areas during 2001 may be attributed to: 1). Development of rural growth centres, 2) after formation of 1125 revenue Mandals, all Mandals headquarters have become centres of socio-economic activities and as a result arresting the migration of people to town areas (urban areas) and 3) reduction in urban areas in 2001 due to declassification of 79 census towns, which did not full fill the criteria for being classified as urban areas. Table 3: Urban Rural growth rates in Andhra Pradesh ( ) Census Growth Rate Total Year Urban Rural

4 Level of Urbanization in the Districts of Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh comprises 23 districts with Hyderabad district having 100 percent urban population during 1991, Next highest percent urban population to total district population found to be in Rangareddi district (Fig.2), which is adjacent to Hyderabad district. Between the other districts Visakhapatnam having percent urban population, followed by Krishna (32.37) followed by rest of the districts. Mahbubnagar district found to have least urban population in 2001 (Table 4). The change in percentage of urban population to total district population during 1991 and 2001 (Fig: 2) reveals that in Andhra Pradesh there are eight districts creased their percentage urban population and other 15 districts decreased percent urban population during inter census period ( ). To understand the tempo urbanization, percentage of urban population to total urban population has been calculated for all the district of Andhra Pradesh for the census period 1991 and Hyderabad district contributes maximum percentage around 18 percent (Table 4) to state urban population followed by Rangareddi district. Visakhapatnam, Fig: 2 Percentage of Urban Population to total Population in the Districts of Andhra Pradesh: Krishna, Guntur districts contribute 6-7 percent of state urban population. Among 23 districts in Andhra Pradesh, Mahbubnagar and Srikakulam districts found to have least urban population. Comparison between two census periods in terms of percent urban to district population showed that Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram districts in costal Andhra Pradesh, Anantapur and Chittoor districts in Rayalaseema region and Adilabad, Nalgonda and Rangareddi in Telangana region showed increase in percent urban population (Fig2). Hyderabad district showed no change in percent urban as it has achieved 100 percent growth in urban and reached saturation level in Regions Increased during Decreased During Costal Andhra Visakhapatnam (13) Krishna (16) West Godavari (15) Vizianagaram (12) Guntur (17), East Godavari (14) Srikakulam (11) Rayalaseema Anantapur (22) Kurnool (21) Nellore (19) Chittoor (23) Cuddapah (20) Prakasam (18) Telangana Adilabad (01) Mahbubnagar (07) Nizamabad (02) Nalgonda (08) Karimnagar (03) Warangal (09) Rangareddi (06) Medak (04) Khammam (10) Hyderabad (no change)

5 Percent urban to total urban population between 1991 and 2001 period shows that (Fig 3), Visakhapatnam district in costal Andhra region, Hyderabad, Rangareddi, Medak Fig: 3 Percentage of Urban Population to total and Adilabad districts in Telangana urban in the Districts of Andhra Pradesh region, Anantapur and Chittoor districts in Rayalaseema region increase in percentage. Analysis from Table 4, Fig: 2 and Fig: 3 revealed that urbanization is increasing in the border districts in Andhra Pradesh. Increase in urban population in Rangareddi district may be due to out growth of Hyderabad UA. Industrial development in Visakhapatnam, migration from other states to Medak and Anantapur districts and increase in agglomerations in Chittoor district are contributory factors for urban growth in these districts. Increased during Decreased During Hyderabad (05) Krishna (16) Warangal (09) Rangareddi (06) Guntur (17) Nellore (19) Visakhapatnam (13) East Godavari (14) Cuddapah (20) Anantapur (22) Kurnool (21) Khammam (10) Chittoor (23) West Godavari (15) Prakasam (18) Adilabad (01) Karimnagar (03) Mahbubnagar (07) Nalgonda (08) Nizamabad (02) Srikakulam (11) Medak (04) Vizianagaram (12) Growth of Urban Agglomerations (UA) The growth of urban population in twenty three districts of Andhra Pradesh was further examined by analyzing Urban Agglomerations (UA). Outgrowths of cities and towns are also treated as urban in the census. Each such towns and cities along with its outgrowths and with adjoining towns are termed as urban agglomerations. Considering this concept 2001 census classifies 37 locations as UAs in Andhra Pradesh. The growth rate of population in 37 UAs considering 2001 data as base shows that (Table 5) highest growth rate was observed in Mancherial (62.78), Tirupati (37.76), Suryapet (35.90), Adilabad (34.89) and least Urban agglomeration growth was observed in Rajahmundary (2.95) and Eluru (1.36). Out of 37 urban agglomerations 17 UAs are having percentage of growth rate between 20 and 37and 14 UAs are having percentage of growth rate between 10 and 20.Five districts are having less than 10 percent growth rate (Table 5).

6 Table: 4: Districts by percentage of urban population to total urban population, Percent urban to total district population in Andhra Pradesh District %Urban to total urban population Change (1991 to 2001) %Urban to total District Population Change (1991 to 2001) Hyderabad Same Rangareddi Visakhapatnam Krishna Guntur East Godavari Anantapur Chittoor Kurnool West Godavari Karimnagar Adilabad Warangal Nellore Cuddapah Khammam Prakasam Nalgonda Nizamabad Vizianagaram Medak Mahbubnagar Srikakulam

7 Table 5: Growth rate of Urban Agglomerations in Andhra Pradesh ( ) Urban Agglomerations Growth Rate Urban Agglomerations Growth Rate Mancherial UA Warangal UA Tirupati UA Vijayawada UA (Distts 16 & 17) Suryapet UA Gudur UA Adilabad UA Cuddapah UA Karimnagar UA Adoni UA Madanapalle UA Ongole UA Anantapur UA Mahbubnagar UA Miryalaguda UA Bhimavaram UA Palacole UA Bheemunipatnam UA Khammam UA Chirala UA Hyderabad UA (Dists 04,05 & 06) Kurnool UA Nalgonda UA Tanuku UA Srikakulam UA Kakinada UA Gadwal UA Narasaraopet UA Nandyal UA Ramagundam UA 9.8 Kavali UA Vizianagaram UA 9.59 Nellore UA Kothagudem UA 2.97 Visakhapatnam UA Rajahmundry UA 2.95 Eluru UA 1.36 Future Growth of Urban Agglomerations in Andhra Pradesh The future city population estimates depends upon the past growth rates. By using the growth rate of city/urban agglomerations and its population, U.N.( )as suggested a method of Projections of urban, rural and city population. A brief description of the method is given below and for further details one can see U.N. If t and t-n are the two time periods than the urban-rural ratio (URR) is obtained as follows: PU + URR( ) ( t) t 1.0 URR( t) =.. (1) Where PU (t) is the proportion urban at time t, and if r denotes the rate of growth of URR 1 URR( t) = ln n URR( t n) r.. (2)

8 The equation (2) can be written as: r = 1 l n n U ( t) l R( t) n U ( t n _ R( t n) 1 U ( t) = l n U ( t n) n R( t) R( t n) UGR (n)-rgr (n). (3) Where U(t), R(t), U(t-n), R(t-n) are the population of urban and rural for the time periods of t and t-n. This r has been identified as urban-rural growth rate difference (URGD). By using URG future population estimates are computed as: URR (t) = URR (t c) e URGD (t-t c ) (4) The t c is the date of census (estimate) close to t. For estimation of city population equation (4) has been modified as the ratio of city population to the population of the rest of country excluding the city concerned. The rate of growth of city is given by R = CGR (n) - RCGR (n) Where CGR and RCGR are growth rates of UA and the rest of the UA in respective districts of Andhra Pradesh, by using above r (CRCGD), future estimates of UA population is obtained by CRGR (t) = CRGR (t c ) e (n) CRCGD The use of CRCGD for a longer period of time would leads to wrong results because CRCGD depends upon growth rates of the past. Hence by using the regression method following equation has been developed on the data obtained from the all UA in Andhra Pradesh. The equations are CUGD = ln (UA) CGRH = UGR + CUGD CGR (t-n), t = W 1 CGR 1 + W 2 CGRH Where W1=.8,.6,.4,.2 and W2=.2,.4,.6,.8 for respective years of projection of population of UA.

9 UA growth rate (CGR) is obtained by above equation and substituted in the following equation to obtain future population. (n) CGR C (t) = C (t-n) e By using above of population projections of UA in Andhra Pradesh have been computed and given in Table 6. Table 6: Projected population of Urban Agglomerations in Andhra Pradesh ( ) Total Population 1991 Total Population * 2011* 2016* 2021* Names of Urban Agglomerations Hyderabad (Distts 04,05 & 06) Visakhapatnam U.A Vijayawada U.A (Distts 16 & 17) Warangal U.A Rajahmundry UA Nellore UA Kakinada Kurnool Tirupati U.A Cuddapah Anantapur Ramagundam UA Karimnagar Eluru Khammam Vizianagaram U.A Chirala Adoni Nandyal UA Ongole UA Bhimavaram Mahbubnagar Adilabad Mancherial Srikakulam UA Nalgonda UA Madanapalle Kothagudam Suryapet UA Miryalaguda Kavali Palacole UA Tanuku UA Gudur Gadwal * Projected population of Urban Agglomerations by considering 2001 census as base.

10 Summary and Conclusions: In this paper an attempt is made to analyses census data to understand level of urbanisation, growth of urban agglomerations, and project the population of Urban Agglomerations in Andhra Pradesh considering 2001 as base period. For the projection of Urban Agglomerations the method suggested by UN (1985) known as URGD projection method has been used. According to recent census count Andhra Pradesh comprises 27.8 percent urban population and the rest in rural areas. Percent urban population increased from in 1961 to in 2001.Urban concentration found to be more in Class I and UA in Andhra Pradesh in the recent periods. There is a study growth of Class I and UA from 1961 to 2001 census period followed by decline in small towns. Among the 23 districts in Andhra Pradesh, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram in Costal Andhra region, Anantapur and Chittoor in Rayalaseema region and Adilabad, Nalgonda, Rangareddi in Telangana areas showed increasing level of urbanisation during decade. Other 15 districts showed declining trend in level of urbanization. Since Hyderabad district achieved 100% urbanisation in 1991 showed no change in the level. As Hyderabad districts reached 100% urbanisation, the growth has been distributed to the neighboring district viz: Rangareddi, hence the urban growth in Rangareddi found to be high among other districts of Andhra Pradesh. Further percentage of urban population to total urban population in Andhra Pradesh showed same trend. The projected percentage of urban population by districts showed that Rangareddi will achieve 89 percent growth by 2021 followed by Visakhapatnam. In Andhra Pradesh among 37 Urban Agglomerations, apart from Hyderabad UA and Rangareddi UA, other Urban Agglomerations viz: Visakhapatnam UA ( ), Vijayawada UA ( ) will have maximum urban population by 2021in Andhra Pradesh. Tanuku UA, Gudur UA and Gadwal UA are least in urban population growth. Keeping in view of the growing population in UA and cities, planners should make necessary development programs to meet the required infrastructure facilities in terms of transportation, communication facilities, and health and housing facilities. Further urban planners should focus on development of medium and small towns which will prevent migration to urban agglomerations.

11 References 1. Bose, Ashish: India s Urbanisation, , Studies in Demography, No.10, I. E.G., Tata McGraw Hill Publisher, New Delhi. 2. Jain M. K.: Interests Variation in the trends of Urbanisation in India , IIPS, Mimeograph, Mitra, Ashok et.al. Population and area of Cities, Towns and Urban Agglomerations , Allied Publisher, Bombay, Prakasam, C.P. ; Upadhyay, R.B.: Population Projections of Million Plus Cities in India, Journal of Institute of Economic Research, Dharwar, Vol. No Bhagat, R.B.: Dynamics of Urban Population Growth by size Class of Towns and Cities in India, Demography India, Vol. 33, No.1 (2004), Pp Bhagat, R.B., 2002: Challenges of Rural-Urban Classification for Decentralized Governance, Economic and Political Weekly, 37 (25): Jain, M.K., Ghosh, M. and Kim, W.B., 1992: Emerging Trends of Urbanisation in India, Occasional Paper No.1 of 1993, Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India, New Delhi 8. UN, 1985: Estimates and Projections of Urban, Rural and City Populations, : the 1982 Assessment, Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, New York, 1985.

12 Appendix I: Table: Estimated Percentage of urban population to total District Population During in Andhra Pradesh District Hyderabad Rangareddi Visakhapatnam Krishna Guntur Adilabad Anantapur Cuddapah East Godavari Nellore Kurnool Chittoor Khammam West Godavari Karimnagar Warangal Vizianagaram Nizamabad Prakasam Medak Nalgonda Srikakulam Mahbubnagar