Energetic particle effects on the atmosphere and climate

Transcription

1 Energetic particle effects on the atmosphere and climate E. Rozanov Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

2 Precipitating energetic particles GCR Electrons Low Energy (<30 KeV): From plasma-sheat to auroral oval VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 GCR Medium to High Energy: From the Radiation Belts to subauroral area Solar Protons: polar cap Galactic cosmic rays: From outside to everywhere Vertical distribution depends on particle energy Rodger and Clilverd, Nature, 2008

3 Types of precipitating energetic particles based on energy deposition altitude VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 Instanteneous Mironova et al., 2015

4 Processes VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 Ionization Ion and neutral chemsitry Particle precipitation Microphysics Transport GEC Ozone chemistry Clouds Ozone, Climate

5 Processes

6 Ionization products e - N 2 N + N 2 + VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 H + (H 2 O) n HSO 4 - (HNO 3 ) n NO 3 - (HNO 3 ) n O 2 N O N * O + O + 2 NOx HOx

7 Stratospheric ozone depletion by NO x and HO x Nitrogen: Hydrogen: VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 NO + O 3 NO 2 + O 2 NO 2 + O NO + O 2 ========================== O 3 + O 2O 2 OH + O 3 HO 2 + O 2 HO 2 + O OH + O 2 ========================== O 3 + O 2O 2 From D. Lary

8 Downward transport of thermospheric NO x Rodger, 2008

9 Polar ozone depletion and SW heating rates Karami et al., 2015,APCD

10 Polar ozone depletion and LW cooling rates VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 January Polar 10% O 3 depletion AER LBL code? Karami et al., 2015,APCD

11 Downward propagating response or top-down mechanism EPP cooling and O 3 decrease VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 Solar UV heating and O 3 increase Thomson & Wallace (1998) Kodera and Kuroda, (2002) Hadley sell shift and... (J.Haigh)

12 SPE effects

13 SPE effects on the atmosphere Jackman et al., 2011

14 SPE effects on the atmosphere VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 HO x driven NO x driven Temporal evolution of relative O3 changes with respect to 26 October 2003 in MIPAS observations averaged over 70 o 90 o N. Figure is reproduced from Funke et al. (2011).

15 775 AD SPE effects on the atmosphere Sukhodolov et al. (2016)

16 775 AD SPE effects on Total Ozone 775 Sukhodolov et al. (2016)

17 Electron effects

18 Effects of electrons Up to -20% in August at 8 hpa High Ap Low Ap composite, Fytterer et al. (2015)

19 Effects of electrons Up to -20% in July at 3 hpa High Ap Low Ap composite, Damiani et al. (2016)

20 Effects of electrons Up to -10% in August at 8 hpa EPP - noepp, 60 o S-90 o S, Rozanov et al. (2012) No MEE

21 Effects of electrons Missing MEE VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, % at 8 hpa MEE effects, Arsenovich et al. (2016)

22 Effects of electrons Weak thermospheric source VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 NO y (ppbv) at 60 km (70 o S-90 o S). Red (standard run), blue (new boundary conditions) and green (standard run with MEE). MIPAS data are shown in black. Rozanov et al., (2016)

23 Effects of electrons Thermospheric source from MIPAS VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 Up to -10% in July at 2 hpa Auroral electron effects, EMAC, Matthes et al. (2016)

24 Surface climate response

25 EPP and surface climate VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 Surface air temperature changes in the northern winter hemisphere from model calculation including energetic electron precipitation (Rozanov et al. 2005). Difference between surface air temperatures for the high Ap (geomagnetic activity index) minus low Ap years from 1957 to 2006 (Seppälä et al. 2009). Adapted from McCrea et al. (2015).

26 EPP and surface climate VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 DJF, SOCOL v2.0, all EP Rozanov et al., 2012 NDJ composite High D1 - Low D1 from GISS Maliniemi et al., 2013

27 EPP and surface climate AA index, Roy et al. (2016)

28 EPP vs UV effects on surface climate MEE Arsenovic et al., 2016 VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 UV Chiodo et al., 2016

29 GCR effects

30 Tropospheric ozone production by NO x and HO x From Volz-Thomas et al. 1990

31 Effects of GCR NOx VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 O 3 SOCOL, Calisto et al., (2011: ASP) CMAM, Semeniuk et al., (2011: ASP)

32 Effects of GCR SOCOL, Calisto et al., (2011: ASP) WACCM, Jackman et al., (2016)

33 Conclusions

34 Achievements during VarSITI period VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 Recent observations and modelling studies showed that the understanding of energetic particle influence on the ozone layer and surface climate is growing Characterization of the energetic electron effects on the atmospheric chemistry; Robust estimate of GCR influence on tropospheric ozone; Finding more indications of surface climate and ozone layer response to energetic particles.

35 Main challenges VarSITI, Albena, Bulgaria, 9 June, 2016 Understand the processes behind downward propagation of the perturbations from the middle atmosphere; Study of the energetic particle contribution to the past and future climate and ozone layer changes; Convince climate community to consider energetic particles as climate forcing; Intensify work on the GEC role in climate change.

36 END