(Global) CAMS system current and upcoming (and past) versions modelling aspects
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1 (Global) CAMS system current and upcoming (and past) versions modelling aspects Johannes Flemming, Zak Kipling, Vincent Huijnen, Samuel Remy, Anna Agusti- Panareda, CAMS development section at ECMWF, CAMS 42 and CAMS 43 development teams
2 Atmospheric Composition in the IFS NWP model Dynamic, physics, transport ECMWF s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)
3 The way forward Improved integration of aerosol and chemistry scheme (and also GHG ) formation of secondary aerosols (Nitrate, Sulphate) Aerosol modulation of chemical process (heterogeneous reaction, photolysis attenuation) Wet and dry deposition fluxes as new CAMS products (total N, Fe in DD) On- line calculation of fluxes Diagnostics and evaluation required Attribution of fluxes and emissions Tagged tracers Flux estimation Link to NWP Tracer in Radiation Link to land surface scheme (Land use, vegetation) Resolution upgrades Better representation of surface fluxes Update to 137 Level (model at top at 80 km) Improvement of computational performance overall flexibility Single precision experimentation Performance analysis and optimization
4 Computational cost of including Atmospheric Composition in IFS Cost of atmospheric composition in NWP (CB05 + AER) Model simulation only : x 5 more expensive Data assimilation suite: x 2 more expensive (40 x more expensive than forecast)
5 Load imbalance and IFS domain de- composition Time spent in Photolysis routine for ach MPI process IFS grid IFS domain de- composition
6 C - IFS aerosol and chemistry schemes Aerosol (LOA/LMD- Z) Chemistry (CB05) Zak Kipling SS small SS mid SS large NO x H 2 O 2 CH 4 CO HNO 3 O 3 CH2O PAR C2H4 OLE ALD2 DU small DU mid DU large CH 3 OOH PAN ROOH ONIT C 5 H 8 SO 2 DMS OM hphob OM hphil BC hphob BC hphil SO 2 SO 4 NH 3 SO 4 NH 4 MSA CH 3 COCHO O 3 (strat) Rn Pb NO HO2 CH3O2 OH NO 2 NO 3 N 2 O 5 HO 2 NO 2 C 2 O 3 ROR XO2 XO2N NH2 CH3OH HCOOH RXPAR NO 3 fine NO 3 coarse NH 4 MCOOH ISPD NO x A C 2 H 6 C 2 H 5 OH C 3 H 8 C 3 H 6 C 1 0H 1 6 NO 3 (aerosol) CH 3 COCH 3 ACO 2 IC 3 H 7 O 2 HYPROPO 2 PSC
7 C - IFS aerosol and chemistry schemes Aerosol (LOA/LMD- Z) Chemistry (CB05) SS small SS mid SS large NO x H 2 O 2 CH 4 CO HNO 3 O 3 CH2O PAR C2H4 OLE ALD2 DU small DU mid DU large CH 3 OOH PAN ROOH ONIT C 5 H 8 SO 2 DMS OM hphob OM hphil BC hphob BC hphil SO 2 SO 4 NH 3 SO 4 NH 4 MSA CH 3 COCHO O 3 (strat) Rn Pb NO HO2 CH3O2 OH NO 2 NO 3 N 2 O 5 HO 2 NO 2 C 2 O 3 ROR XO2 XO2N NH2 CH3OH HCOOH RXPAR NO 3 fine NO 3 coarse NH 4 MCOOH ISPD NO x A C 2 H 6 C 2 H 5 OH C 3 H 8 C 3 H 6 C 1 0H 1 6 NO 3 (aerosol) CH 3 COCH 3 ACO 2 IC 3 H 7 O 2 HYPROPO 2 PSC
8 C - IFS aerosol and chemistry schemes Aerosol (LOA/LMD- Z) Chemistry (CB05) Zak Kipling SS small SS mid SS large NO x H 2 O 2 CH 4 CO HNO 3 O 3 CH2O PAR C2H4 OLE ALD2 DU small DU mid DU large CH 3 OOH PAN ROOH ONIT C 5 H 8 SO 2 DMS OM hphob OM hphil BC hphob BC hphil SO 2 SO 4 NH 3 SO 4 NH 4 MSA CH 3 COCHO O 3 (strat) Rn Pb NO HO2 CH3O2 OH NO 2 NO 3 N 2 O 5 HO 2 NO 2 C 2 O 3 ROR XO2 XO2N NH2 CH3OH HCOOH RXPAR NO 3 fine NO 3 coarse NH 4 MCOOH ISPD NO x A C 2 H 6 C 2 H 5 OH C 3 H 8 C 3 H 6 C 1 0H 1 6 NO 3 (aerosol) CH 3 COCH 3 ACO 2 IC 3 H 7 O 2 HYPROPO 2 PSC
9 I n t r o d u c i n g n i t r a t e a e r o s o l One- way coupling Two- way coupling Background: surface nitrate aerosol from 2014 cycling forecast Circles: AIRBASE observations S. Remy
10 Nitrate aerosol: impact vs. AERONET obs ref 1- way 2- way
11 D r y D e p o s i t i o n H N O Dry deposition from EURAD Working on evaluating and improving wet and dry deposition fluxes could become joint topic for regional and global modelling groups 19/05/
12 IFS GHG forecast: new developments CO 2, CH 4 and linear CO high resolution forecast 1. Coupling with CO 2, CH 4 and CO analysis. 2. Resolution upgrade: from 16 to 9 km. 3. Upgrade in the mass fixer to ensure monotonicity. 4. Upgrade in emissions (EDGAR4.2FT2010) 5. Tagged tracers to monitor: Ø Biomass burning (CO, CO 2, CH 4 ) Ø Anthropogenic emissions (CO, CO 2, CH 4 ) Ø Biogenic fluxes (CO 2, CH 4 ) Ø Ocean fluxes High resolution (9km) L137 Low resolution (80km) L137 Low resolution (80km) L60 High resolution transport and low resolution fluxes Anna Agusti- Panareda
13 Example of tagged tracers for XCO 2 DAY 5 FORECAST Anna Agusti- Panareda BIOGENIC ANTHROPOGENIC OCEAN FIRES
14 10 Years of Atmospheric Composition Forecast at ECMWF Carbon Monoxide at 500 hpa T YEARS COMPOSITION Forecast at ECMWF First NRT publication on web site 17 th of May 2007
15 Evaluation of CO (PBL) at Frankfurt (MOZAIC/IAGOS) Note: NRT CRT was nudged to O- suite Start of Composition NRT osuite with dta assimilation: IFS/AER- MOZART C- IFS (IFS- MOZART retired) T511 resolution upgrade
16 Evaluation of tropospheric ozone at Legionowo Ozone in the Planetary Boundary Layer over Legionowa/Poland
17 Summmary Over the last 10 years the quality of the GEMS/MACC/CAMS global NRT system has greatly improved Effort needed to maintain this progress in present and future Attracting more user by: Smaller errors of existing CAMS products New CAMS products such as deposition fluxes new tracers (e.g HCN, phosphorus, Fe content in dust, volcanic ash and SO2, stratospheric chemistry ) Further development of the global CAMS model remains a rewarding scientific and technical challenge
18 Evaluation of CO (PBL) at Frankfurt (MOZAIC/IAGOS) Control Forecast without assimilation evnj ( ) (bug fixes) ez2m ( ) - MOZ.3 f45r ( ) - MOZ.3 f7kn ( ) - MOZ3 (stratofix, SO2 added) fkya ( ) (MOZ3.5 MACCity scaled) g4o2 ( C- IFS (with aerosol ) geuh ( ) gjjh ( ) gnhb ( present Start of Composition NRT osuite with dta assimilation: IFS/AER- C- IFS MOZART (IFS- MOZART retired) T511 resolution upgrade O- suite with data assimilation, with aerosol f1kd ( ) MOZ.3 f93i ( ) fnyp ( ) MOZ.3.5, T255 g4e2 ( ) C- IFS, T255 g9rr ( ) 0001 ( present) T511
19
20 Evaluation of stratospheric ozone at Neumayer Station Control Forecast without Note: assimilation evnj ( ) NRT (bug CRT fixes) was nudged ez2m ( ) - MOZ.3 to O- suite f45r ( ) - MOZ.3 f7kn ( ) - MOZ3 (stratofix, SO2 added) fkya ( ) (MOZ3.5 MACCity scaled) g4o2 ( C- IFS (with aerosol ) geuh ( ) gjjh ( ) gnhb ( present Start of Composition NRT osuite with dta assimilation: IFS/AER- MOZART O- suite with data assimilation, with aerosol f1kd ( ) MOZ.3 f93i ( ) fnyp ( ) MOZ.3.5, T255 g4e2 ( ) C- IFS, T255 g9rr ( ) 0001 ( present) T511
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