JRC research activities on floods 1 Flood early warning (Europe) EFAS: European Flood Alert System IMPRINTS (DG RTD project): flash flood early warning EU-FLOOD-GIS ETN-R Explore African and Global early warning systems Climate Change effects on water cycle: Flood Risk Pan-European assessments Increased inclusion of important European lakes (FI, SE) Land Use and Flood Risk Land use scenario models: Pan-European land use scenario model (100m resolution) (ENV-JRC + contractors) Run scenarios in line with CC emission scenarios Technical support work to Flood Directive Database of past floods Visualization of flood information in WISE Other activities GFDS: Global Flood Detection System GDACS: Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System Revised website: http://floods.jrc.ec.europa.eu
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 8/23/02 0:00 8/24/02 0:00 8/25/02 0:00 8/26/02 0:00 8/27/02 0:00 8/28/02 0:00 8/29/02 0:00 8/30/02 0:00 8/31/02 0:00 Dessau/Rosslau Wittenberg Torgau Riesa Dresden Labe Decin Labe/Usti N.L. Vltava/Prague The European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 2 EU Flood GIS Realtime H-Q data Historical Data 120 forecasts daily 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 8/23/02 0:00 8/24/02 0:00 8/25/02 0:00 8/26/02 0:00 8/27/02 0:00 8/28/02 0:00 8/29/02 0:00 8/30/02 0:00 8/31/02 0:00 Dessau/Rosslau Wittenberg Torgau Riesa Dresden Labe Decin Labe/Usti N.L. Vltava/Prague Static Data Europ. Data Layers 24/365 Web-Interface Meteo -Data 25 organisations Expert Knowledge of Member States Impact: earlier crisis preparedness actions by national civil protection (e.g. HU, RO) Support to EU Flood Directive, river basin Action Plans for floods (Danube, Elbe), and EU Civil Protection (MIC)
Po flood 2009 (28-29 April) 3
Realtime river discharge data: ETN-R initiative New: ES, HR, BU, PL 4 Next: inclusion of FR and RO data
Updating EFAS forecasts in near-real time with ETN-R data 5 Combined weather and model uncertainty updated old
Pan-European HydroMeteo metadata & database ( EU-FLOOD-GIS ) Meteo data currently supplied in NRT (< 24h) 1. EU-Synop 2. DE - DWD+Ecomet+AMDA 3. EU- Meteo Consult 4. CH-MeteoSwiss 5. IT-ARPA-Emiglia Romana 6. ES-SAIH-Ebro 7. CZ-CHMI 8. SK-Met. Service SK 9. HU-Met. Service HU 10.AT-ZAMG (INKA grids) 11.SI-Met. Service SI 12.NO-Met. Service NO 6
From European to African and Global flood early warning systems 2500 2000 1500 1000 1977 flood observed simulated 1981 flood Two pilot studies: Juba/Shabelle river basins Somalia - Ethiopia) 500 0 Zambesi river basin (Southern Africa) Collaboration exist between JRC and Dartmouth Flood Observatory, Princeton University, Washington State University 7 12/31/1976 3/31/1977 6/30/1977 9/30/1977 12/31/1977 3/31/1978 6/30/1978 9/30/1978 12/31/1978 3/31/1979 6/30/1979 9/30/1979 12/31/1979 3/31/1980 6/30/1980 9/30/1980 12/31/1980 3/31/1981 6/30/1981 9/30/1981 12/31/1981 hindcast Spring 1981 for Belet Weyne (Shabelle, Somalia)
Setup for a Global Flood Alert System (work in progress) Data R&D End-Users 8 ECMWF Operational EPS ECMWF TIGGE Operational EPS NOAA NWS Princeton & Washington State Univ EC - MIC Civil Protection EUMETSAT SAF-products (precipitation, snow) Global Flood & Drought Forecast Model (Daily-Monthly) WFP Emergency Response GMES Geoland2-products (landcover, NDVI) JRC Deltares Utrecht Univ National Authorities GRDC Global runoff data Other aid Organisations e.g. Red Cross
Global Flood Detection System (GFDS) detecting floods based on (MODIS) satellite data Based on detecting changes in wet/dry fraction Useful for areas where measurements are lacking > outside Europe To assist MIC, UN and other aid-organisations to have near-realtime info on floods Feeds into GDACS 9
Climate change effects on river floods (summary of 8 scenarios) Number of scenarios (out of total eight experiments) showing a decrease (plot a) or increase (b) in Q 100 of more than 5% in the scenario period 10 Dankers, R., and L. Feyen, 2009. Flood hazard in Europe in an ensemble of regional climate scenarios, J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2008jd011523. Next step: include coastal flood risk (coll. Univ Southampton)
Potential benefits of flood mitigation 11 exp ann dam (billion ) 250 200 150 100 50 control scenario A2 A2, EU27 damage = 31 billion damage = +75% protection rp = 10 26 y Protection HQ10: From 40 > 71 billion Difference: 31 billion Euro Protection 10 > 26 yr Protection HQ100: From 6.5 > 18 billion Difference: 11 billion Euro potential Protection 100 > 400 yr benefits cost of adaptation 0 1 10 100 1000 protection ctrl (rp in yrs)
Other information on FLOODS on the JRC FLOODS Portal 12
ONGOING floods, as reported by the Nat. Hydr. Services 13
ARCHIVE of EFAS forecasts open to public 14
Overview Information on National Institutes 15
16 Thank you! For further Information: http://floods.jrc.ec.europa.eu ad.de-roo@jrc.ec.europa.eu