A Multi-Hazard Evaluation of Vulnerability using GIS along Cape Hatteras National Seashore, NC

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A Multi-Hazard Evaluation of Vulnerability using GIS along Cape Hatteras National Seashore, NC Tom Allen¹, Burrell Montz¹, JP Walsh¹, Tom Crawford² ¹East Carolina University, ²Saint Louis University Presented by Michael Flynn¹, Coastal Resources Management PhD Student

http://roadtripusa.net/day_20061029.content

Michael Flynn

Michael Flynn

Michael Flynn

Michael Flynn

Michael Flynn

Michael Flynn

http://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Hurricane Irene six hours before landfall on Aug 27

Hurricane Irene (2011) Pea Island Wildlife Refuge Rodanthe

http://coast.noaa.gov/slr/

http://coast.noaa.gov/slr/

http://coast.noaa.gov/slr/

http://coast.noaa.gov/slr/

Task Agreement No. P13AC01432 Piedmont South Atlantic Cooperative Ecosystems Studies Unit Task Agreement Between National Park Service And East Carolina University To Identify Cultural Resources Sites Affected by Sea Level Rise at Cape Hatteras National Seashore

Principal Investigators Dr. Tom Allen Department of Geography East Carolina University Dr. Burrell Montz Department of Geography East Carolina University Dr. JP Walsh Department of Geology East Carolina University Dr. Tom Crawford Center for Sustainability Saint Louis University

Steve Earley Scope of Work East Carolina University will work closely with NPS staff and scientists to model local sea level rise and evaluate the vulnerability of 27 Historic Structures at Cape Hatteras National Seashore.

http://www.meylercapital.com/2015/03/alternatives-and-the-marketing-hour-glass/ Project Objective ECU will identify the risk level of each structure and identify the estimate timelines for potential impact and alternative relocation of structures and districts.

Cape Hatteras National Seashore There are 27 historic structures located within 5 areas of interest. Bodie Island Coast Guard and Light Station Little Kinnakeet Hatteras Light Station Hatteras Weather Bureau Ocracoke Light Station

Bodie Island Light and Coast Guard Station

Little Kinnakeet

Cape Hatteras Light Station, Ranger Station, and CCC Cabins

Cape Hatteras Light Station, Ranger Station, and CCC Cabins Michael Colligan

Hatteras Weather Bureau

Ocracoke Light Station

Roger Bansemer Multi-Hazard Approach Coastal Erosion DSAS LRR Storm Surge SLOSH MOMs Sea Level Rise Bathtub Hydrodynamic

Completed Projects Historical Shoreline Change Effects of climatology on net shoreline movement Elevation Change Assessment following storm events

Completed using USGS Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) What method and shorelines should be used to project future shoreline position? Net Shoreline Movement End Point Rate (NCDCM) Linear Regression Rate 2D vs 3D considerations How do you account for nourishment? What about estuarine shorelines?

NDBC Diamond Shoals Station 41025 Historical Data NDBC Diamond Shoals Station 41025 Historical Data Annual Mode Annual Average Year WD (deg) WSP (m/s) D GST (m/s) WVHT (m) DPD (s) APD (s) 2003 215 6.9 8.4 1.5 7.7 5.3 2004 233 7.1 5.6 1.4 7.5 5.0 2005 18 7.0 8.6 1.5 8.0 5.3 2006 7 7.1 8.7 1.5 7.8 5.2 2007 13 7.6 9.4 1.5 7.5 5.1 2008 214 7.4 9.1 1.6 8.0 5.3 2009 226 7.3 8.9 1.6 7.9 5.3 2010 234 7.2 8.8 1.5 8.0 5.3 2011 237 5.1 5.1 1.5 7.5 5.1 Std. Dev 0.68 1.48 0.05 0.20 0.12

Wind Direction (Degrees) Wind Speed (m/s) Wave Height (m) Wave Period (s) NDBC Diamond Shoals Station 41025 Historical Data Annual Wind Analysis Annual Wave Analysis 300 10.0 1.7 9.0 250 200 150 100 50 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 WD (deg) WSP (m/s) D GST (m/s) 1.6 1.5 1.4 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 WVHT (m) APD (s) DPD (s) Linear (WVHT (m)) 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year 0.0 1.3 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year 0.0

Wind Direction (Degrees) Wave Height (m) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Wave Period (s) Wind Speed (m/s) NDBC Diamond Shoals Station 41025 Historical Data Annual Wind Analysis 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 WD (deg) WSP (m/s) D GST (m/s) Year Annual Wave Analysis 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 WVHT (m) APD (s) DPD (s) Linear (WVHT (m)) Year

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Wave Height (m) Wave Period (s) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Wind Direction (Degrees) Wind Speed (m/s) NDBC Diamond Shoals Station 41025 Historical Data Annual Wind Analysis 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 WD (deg) WSP (m/s) D GST (m/s) Year Annual Wave Analysis 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 WVHT (m) APD (s) DPD (s) Linear (WVHT (m)) Year

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Wave Height (m) Wave Period (s) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Wind Direction (Degrees) Wind Speed (m/s) NDBC Diamond Shoals Station 41025 Historical Data Annual Wind Analysis 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 WD (deg) WSP (m/s) D GST (m/s) Year Annual Wave Analysis 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 WVHT (m) APD (s) DPD (s) Linear (WVHT (m)) Year

Wind Direction (Degrees) Wind Speed (m/s) Wave Height (m) Wave Period (s) NDBC Diamond Shoals Station 41025 Historical Data Seasonal Wind Analysis Seasonal Wave Analysis 350.0 12.0 2.0 10.0 300.0 10.0 1.8 9.0 8.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 WD (deg) WSP (m/s) D GST (m/s) 1.6 1.4 1.2 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 WVHT (m) APD (s) DPD (s) Linear (WVHT (m)) 50.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Season 0.8 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Season Should we pay attention to seasonal variation? What effect does it have on shoreline position?

2009 USACE Aug 16-24 CHARTS Grid Size: 2 +/- 0.75m Hor +/- 0.2m Ver 2009 USGS Nov 27,29 Dec 1 EAARL Grid Size: 2 +/- 1.0m Hor +/- 0.15m Ver

2009 USGS Nov 27,29 Dec 1 EAARL Grid Size: 2 +/- 1.0m Hor +/- 0.15m Ver 2011 NGS Aug 28-29 Riegl Q680i-D Grid Size: 2 +/- 1.0m Hor +/- 0.3m Ver

2011 NGS Aug 28-29 Riegl Q680i-D Grid Size: 2 +/- 1.0m Hor +/- 0.3m Ver 2012 USGS Nov 5-29 Optech Gemini Grid Size: 1 +/- 0.194m Hor +/- 0.147 0.075m Ver

Roger Bansemer Future Work Storm Surge Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Nor Easter Use MOM Sea Level Rise 20, 40, 80, 120 cm scenarios Future geomorphological change Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Inlet Opening Potential Dune Hazard Analysis Tool (DHAT)

http://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Inputs National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) Digital Elevation Model DEM derived slope Dikes derived from NWI Tidal datum and SLR data from NOS/CO-OPS

Inputs National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) Digital Elevation Model DEM derived slope Dikes derived from NWI Tidal datum and SLR data from NOS/CO-OPS

Inputs National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) Digital Elevation Model DEM derived slope Dikes derived from NWI Tidal datum and SLR data from NOS/CO-OPS

Inputs National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) Digital Elevation Model DEM derived slope Dikes derived from NWI Tidal datum and SLR data from NOS/CO-OPS

Inputs National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) Digital Elevation Model DEM derived slope Dikes derived from NWI Tidal datum and SLR data from NOS/CO-OPS

http://coastal.geology.ecu.edu/nccohaz/maps/inlet_potential.html Method Simple cross-section measurements of island volume above sea level (Perkins et al., 2007, Walsh et al., submitted) Plan to update using most recent LIDAR derived DEM

Roger Bansemer Deliverable Final report and maps documenting the hazards that threaten the 27 historic structures forecasted 30 years in 5 year increments. A protocol that other parks can use to perform a similar assessment E-mail questions/comments to flynnmi13@students.ecu.edu

E-mail questions/comments to flynnmi13@students.ecu.edu

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