The Three Things You Need to Know About Tsunami Preparedness Patrick Corcoran, Oregon Sea Grant, 10.11.13 NSF/CEETEP Workshop for Coastal Educators, October 11-14, Astoria, OR
The Bottom Line Giant Earthquakes Happen Here! They Occur Regularly in Geologic Time. Our Last One Was in 1700 (313 yrs) Given 10k year Averages, We are well within the Window of Recurrence (75% of M8-9 events would have happened by now given the historic record) We are the First Generation since western settlement to know of our risk. We need to become prepared commensurate with the risk First step: EXPECT IT! It will change your life.
The 3 Things You Need to Know The difference between Local and Distant tsunamis The location of High Ground are where you live, work, and play along the coast How to Reconnect with loved ones following Local events Source: Patrick Corcoran, Sea Grant Extension, Oregon State University
OSG Hazards Outreach Specialist Came for Weather/ Stay for the Tsunamis My focus: Earthquake + 30 minutes. Essential messages for regular people Balancing education and messaging. But trending toward more messaging. I want to change your behavior!
Education vs. Messaging
Greatest Challenges Human risk perception. Human s are neurologically challenged to deal with this! Understanding probabilities and relative risks. We underestimate the likelihood of a destructive earthquake, and overestimate the likely scale of inundation We have no cultural context to guide our desired behavior. We are profoundly vulnerable, and don t even know it. Scientific consensus for Cascadia only 25+ years. We are the first generation since western settlement to know that we get giant earthquakes and tsunamis. Cultural resistance.
Greatest Opportunity! We are the first generation since western settlement to know that we get giant earthquakes and tsunamis! Can we change our behavior in alignment with what we KNOW will occur? Hmmmm
The First Step is to Expect it! Source: 2010 issue of Cascadia
EXPECT IT! It will change your life
30 year probabilities of selected hazards USGS Press release 2008, adapted from Earthquake Basics DOGAMI 2013 Outcome: 30-year Probability of Occurrence Being In A Car Accident 59.9% 50-year old Oregon Male Will Die 40.3% 50-year old Oregon Female Will Die 27.1% At Least One 100-year Flood 26.0% 30-year old Oregon Male Will Die 10.8% Magnitude 8-9 Cascadia Subduction Earthquake & Tsunami 10.0% * Your Vehicle Stolen 9.5% 30-year old Oregon Female Will Die 6.4% You Are Robbed 3.0% Have Residential Fire 1.2% Killed In Car Accident 0.9% * USGS Press Release April 14, 2008 54
Questions How many of you locked your car? Why? How many of you have a Go-Kit in your car? Why Not?
Are Dice More Your Thing? Pick two numbers, and roll the dice. That s how likely it is to get a local event 37% probability in the next 50 years of a M8 or M9is greater than a 1:3 Chris Goldfinger, OSU
EXPECT IT! Then what?
The 3 Things You Need to Know The difference between Local and Distant tsunamis The location of High Ground are where you live, work, and play along the coast How to Reconnect with loved ones following Local events Source: Patrick Corcoran, Sea Grant Extension, Oregon State University
Local Tsunamis Created by a local earthquake
Distant Tsunamis Caused by distant earthquake
Local Earthquake If you FEEL a large earthquake: immediately duck down, cover your head from falling debris, and hold on until the shaking stops. If you re in the inundation zone, evacuate immediately to high ground. If not, stay put, or moved to open ground. Avoid landslides, power lines, gas leaks, and fires. Administer first aid and help others. Expect aftershocks and related trauma and damage. Execute your family plan. What did you say you were going to do? Do your kids have the discipline to do it? Do you?
The Great Shake Out http://www.shakeout.org/ Excellent preparation for the Big One Good excuse for reluctant supervisors Non structural improvements are easy
A large earthquake IS your warning that tsunamis are on their way in 15 30 minutes!!
Local Tsunamis The areas vulnerable to flooding by tsunamis include all beaches, shorelines, coastal waterways, and wetlands. Much development and infrastructure exists in these areas. Map your lifestyle. Locate where you live, work, and play on inundation maps. Know where to go when the next Big One occurs. There will be no warning, you will have 15 30 minutes to get to high ground. Save yourself first Source: Patrick Corcoran, Sea Grant Extension, Oregon State University
Run Uphill!
Where s High Ground? The New Maps (Oregon) May be the most significant cultural milestone since Lewis and Clark claimed Ocian in View Evacuation brochures and Tsunami inundation maps are different Map your lifestyle. Know where to go, bro!
New Maps! DOGAMI Evacuation Brochures portray the worst case scenario for both local and distant events. Get maps at city halls, fire stations, and online at http://www.oregongeology.org/tsuclearinghouse/ Tsunami inundation maps (TIM): Show range of the inundations of the past 19 events. More nuanced. For planning purposes. Washington state tsunami maps http://www.emd.wa.gov/hazards/haz_tsunami.shtml#tsunamievacuation Maps http://www.shakeout.org/washington/ Northern California / HSU: Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group http://www.humboldt.edu/rctwg/
Evacuation Brochures
19 M9 s in past 10,000 years! Source: Adapted from DOGAMI, 2013
Tsunami Inundation Map (TIM)
Map Exercise Oregon Tsunami Clearinghouse Maps and Apps Google Earth
How Do I Reconnect With Family? DISTANT event? Phones, roads and infrastructure may be busy, but intact. Drive home, call home, or stay overnight with friends. LOCAL event? Instruct loved ones to get to high ground, stay there overnight, and find each other the next day. ID a non-local contact person for everyone to call. Do not rush to meet at a designated place as that will likely require family to re-enter danger zones. Power and all phones will be out. Many roads and bridges will be damaged. You will likely not be in communication for a while. Insist that everyone knows what to do to be safe wherever they are. Don t re-enter inundation zones for 24 hours. Talk through these scenarios. Source: Patrick Corcoran, Sea Grant Extension, Oregon State University
You Mean MY Dysfunctional Family?! Yes. Do your loved ones understand that we get this infrequent but real hazard? Do they Expect it? Will they take distant events in stride; but when the earth quakes, will they move to high ground, stay there overnight, and find you the next day? Are you sure?
Field Educators Understand your tsunami footprint and know where high ground is at all locations Carry a Go Bag in your work rig? Know who else are you responsible for. Colleagues, adults, kids? What are your responsibilities for their tsunami evacuation? Seek opportunities to educate colleagues and learners about our relative risk, and how to increase our preparedness Talk to your loved ones about what if scenarios with you working on the coast
Field Scenarios Local Duck, cover, hold Get you, and your people, to high ground Stay safe overnight Reconnect with loved ones Distant Monitor media, avoid adding to confusion Get your people back to their people Avoid over-evacuation Any other professional responsibility?
Overwhelming Opportunities Political leadership and government support Businesses and Chambers of Commerce Schools, hospitals and public heath, educators Public works, ODOT, planning departments Individuals, families, and neighborhoods, CERTS.
We re Culturally Unprepared Research has only in the past 25+ years revealed that Cascadia erupts in Great (M9) earthquakes and tsunamis. It s understandable that we re behind the curve. But, we must make up for lost time. We must prepare commensurate with the risk which is great. In Japan 2011, 20k people tragically died. But over 200k were in the inundation zone at the time. So, 90% of Japanese successfully evacuated!