An Application of Hydrometeorological Information Weather-proof Café: Hydro-meteorological information in managing weather risks 17 19 November 2012 National Taiwan University, Chinese Taipei Nikos Viktor B. Peñaranda Department of Science and Technology (DOST) Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
A. Severe Weather Cases (early 2012) B. Challenges and Response
A.) Severe Weather Cases - Tropical Cyclone Gener {Saola}: 28 July 02 Aug - Enhanced Habagat {SW Monsoon}: Aug 06 08
28 July 02 August 2012
Direct Effect Enhancement of the SW Monsoon Production of an accessory vortex meso-cyclone / mesovortex (unprecedented) Track of TC {Saola} 130/160 (max/gust) peak 10-24 mm/h rainfall (core)
TC Saola: Enhanced SW Monsoon
RAINFALL Distribution Climatological: JULY
TC Saola: Meso-cyclone / Mesovortex RADAR SATELLITE
TC Saola: Meso-cylone / Mesovortex 12:00 UTC 7/28/12 18:00 UTC 7/28/12 00:00 UTC 7/29/12 06:00 UTC 7/29/12 12:00 UTC 7/29/12 18:00 UTC 7/29/12 00:00 UTC 7/30/12 * 850mb Vorticity Courtesy of CIMMS
TC Saola: Meso-Cyclone Passage 1010.0 1005.0 July 29, 2012 Pressure (hpa) 1000.0 995.0 990.0 IBA 985.0 SUBIC BAY 980.0 SCIENCE GARDEN 975.0 CABANATUAN CITY BAGUIO CITY 970.0 AMBULONG 965.0 0000 0300 0600 0900 1200 1500 1800 2100 1004.0 1002.0 1000.0 998.0 996.0 994.0 992.0 Time (UTC) Port Area Station (Manila) Recorded Pressure at QC July 30, 2012, 2 AM 00Z 03Z 06Z 09Z 012Z 015Z 018Z 21Z 00Z 03Z 06Z 09Z 012Z 015Z 018Z 21Z Barograph at the Weather Forecasting Center in Pressure Speed Quezon City 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 ms-1 Iba Subic Baguio Map of LUZON Cabanatuan Manila Ambulong
Casualties*: Dead (54), Injured (35), missing (3) Reports*:maritime (34), flooding (15), landslides (5), storm surges (4), river/lake overflow (7) Cost: Php 728,331,305* (~ US$17,341,222) Track of TC {Saola} 7 th Tropical Cyclone to Affect the Philipines this year Developed w/in the Philippine Area of Responsibility Infrastructure (41.3%) Agriculture (58.3%) Property (0.4%) * NDRRMC - Office of Civil Defense
06 08 August 2012
TRACK of TC Haikui Courtesy of CIMMS
Satellite and Rainfall Maps for 6, 7, 8 AUGUST 2012
HABAGAT DAMAGES*: Php 3,182,311,115.19 (~ US$ 75,769,312.3) Affected Population 992,562 families / 4,451,711 persons Casualties Infrastructure Agriculture Flooded Areas Dead: 109 Missing: 2 P 777,828,063.46 P 2,404,483,051.19 61 Cities/ Municipalities from NCR, Reg. 3 & IV-A * NDRRMC - Office of Civil Defense
Date EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS Highest daily rainfall recorded at Science Garden Station (01 Jan 1961-08 Aug 2012) Rainfall (mm) % of Monthly Normal Rainfall Tropical Cyclone in PAR Remarks Sept. 26, 2009 455.0 90.24% TS Ketsana (Sep 24-27) TS crossed C. Luzon Aug 7, 2012 391.4 77.62% No TC TS Haikui far N near China June 7, 1967 334.5 66.34% No TC TY Billie @ S of Japan Aug 6, 2012 323.4 64.14% No TC TS Haikui far N near China Aug 8, 2012 292.6 58.03% No TC TS Haikui over China Sept. 2, 1970 276.5 54.84% TS Norming (Sep 2-8) TS @ NE of Luzon to Taiwan Sept 4, 2000 267.0 52.96% TS Maring (Sep 2-8) TS @ E-NE-W of Luzon Monthly Normal Rainfall for August at Science Garden (1981-2010) = 504.2 mm
B.) Challenges and Response Initiatives by DOST and PAGASA
Key Issues Extreme rainfall that is associated with a tropical cyclone outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). High spatial variability of Rainfall within the tropical cyclone Formation of sub-synoptic vortices, aggravation by local effects, etc.
Current Initiatives Utilizing Social Media and SMS (text) in information dissemination Decision Support Systems for End Users Rainfall Warning System (RWS) Independent warning protocol for rain Data from Doppler radars, rain gauges and AWS Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) Under the collaborative work of DOST agencies and the academe
Rainfall Warning System RAINFALL VALUES (mm) MEANING DISSEMINATION WARNING Rainfall observation is 7.5mm SATELLITE Community AND AWARENESS RADAR MONITORING This will be to 15mm within 1 hour is FLOODING IS POSSIBLE in disseminated thru expected to fall and most likely low-lying areas and areas near SMS, Twitter and to continue for the next 3 the river channel. website hours. IDENTIFY THE WEATHER SYSTEM Rainfall observation is more than 15mm up to 30mm within 1 hour and most likely to continue or if continuous rainfall for the past 3 hours is more than 45mm to 65mm. Rainfall observation is more than 30mm within 1 hour or if continuous rainfall for the past 3 hours is >65mm Community PREPAREDNESS FLOODING IS THREATENING NO TSTM-WS Synoptic Community RESPONSE SERIOUS FLOODING is EXPECTED Take necessary precautionary measures End User This will be disseminated thru SMS, Twitter and website YES This will be disseminated thru SMS, Twitter and website HR-WS Advisory Alert Action
NOAH
Department of Science and Technology (DOST) Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)