Climate of the Philippines and the sea surface temperature effect on summer monsoon rainfall in the Philippines
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1 International Workshop on Climate Downscaling Studies at Tsukuba, October 4, 2017 Climate of the Philippines and the sea surface temperature effect on summer monsoon rainfall in the Philippines Jun Matsumoto *, **, Hiroshi TAKAHASHI *,**, DADO Julie Mae Borejon *, Dzung Nguyen-Le ***, and Marcelino Villafuerte II **** * Department of Geography, Tokyo Metropolitan University (TMU) ** Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science Technology (JAMSTEC) *** Hokkaido University **** Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Mt Pinatubo Lahar and Mt. Arayat on the way from Manila to Baguio, March 2012
2 Outline of this talk 1. Climatic seasonal changes of regional rainfall and wind at 850 hpa in the Philippines by 5-day mean TRMM and ERA_Interim data, respectively. 2. The effect of spatial resolution on simulated rainfall over the western Philippines 3. The potential impact of sea surface temperature on rainfall over the western Philippines For items 2&3: Using WRF-ARW v3.6.1 Model
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8 2. Effect of spatial resolution on simulated rainfall over the western Philippines What resolution can RCMs reproduce summer monsoon rainfall on the northwestern coast of the Philippines? Dado, J.M. & Takahashi, H.G Effect of spatial resolution on simulated rainfall over western Philippines, Geogr. Reps. Tokyo Metrop. Univ. 52:
9 WPH o N o E >50 70 % of annual rainfall occurs in June-August during Southwest Monsoon Season (SWM) 9
10 Model & experimental setup WRF-ARW v3.6.1 Domains 1. D01 25km 2. D km 3. D02 8km, nested in 40km 4. D02 5km, nested in 25km D01 25km D01 40km 1 2 D km D02 8km 3 Simulation Period June to August D01 25km D02 5km 10
11 Model & experimental setup WRF-ARW v3.6.1 Boundary Conditions Atmospheric --- ERA Interim SST --- NOAA monthly OISSTv2 Parameterization Microphysics --- WSM 6- class graupel D01 25km D01 40km 1 2 D km D02 8km 3 - Planetary boundary layer -- Mellor-Yamada-Janjic 4 Land surface --- Unified NOAH No cumulus convective parameterization D01 25km D02 5km 11
12 Data for evaluation of monthly rainfall 1. APHRODITE Asian Precipitation Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (Yatagai et al. 2012) - Daily rainfall from deg resolution 2. Seven (7) stations from PAGASA Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration - Daily rainfall amount, Stations span the WPH region. 12
13 Monthly rainfall amount WRF model vs APHRODITE Rainfall amount improved in the higher resolution models. 13
14 Model performance in terms of spatial distribution of monthly rainfall Climatological mean ( mean) rainfall Location of the 7 PAGASA stations per STATION for every month June, July, August Grids are for visualization purposes only, not the actual model grids 14
15 JUNE JULY AUGUST 12.5 km has the closest distribution to PAGASA in terms of climatological rainfall distribution 5km is better than 25km downscaling improves model s spatial variation of rainfall thru minimizing RMS difference 15
16 3. Potential impact of sea surface temperature on rainfall over the western Philippines What is the impact of local SST west of the Philippines on the summer monsoon rainfall on the northwestern coast of the Philippines? Dado, J.M. & Takahashi, H.G Potential impact of sea surface temperature on rainfall over the western Philippines, Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 4:23, DOI /s
17 Can SST affect rainfall west of the Philippines? 850 mb winds (vectors) + SST (shaded contours) [ o C] m/s 17
18 Model & experimental setup Boundary Conditions Atmospheric: ERA Interim Sea surface temperature: NOAA monthly OISSTv2 Parameterization Microphysics: WSM 6-class graupel Planetary boundary layer: Mellor-Yamada-Janjic Land surface: Unified NOAH No cumulus convective parameterization (CCP) D01 25km D02 5km 18
19 WRF-ARW v Simulation Period: June to August, Resolution analysis: 5km, nested within 25km domain -- ERA Interim atmospheric boundary condition -- NOAH Land Surface Model -- No cumulus convective parameterization (CCP) CTL experiment w/ monthly mean SST data from NOAA OISST v2 CLM experiment w/ monthly climatological SST ( ) from NOAA OISST v2 Compare CTL and CLM results Determine the sensitivity of rainfall to the variations of SST 19
20 SST impact For each year, CTL CLM SENSITIVITY / ANOMALY 20
21 SST impact WPH WSST WPH o N o E WSST o N o E 21
22 Spatial distribution of monthly rainfall vs TRMM-PR Results 22
23 SST impact on rainfall REGRESSION ANALYSIS relationship between rainfall sensitivity to SST anomaly in WSST region Pctl-clim (mm) SST anomaly (K) Regression coefficient Slope -> rate of change of rainfall per 1K SST warming Theil-Sen method Estimate trend using median slope among all lines through all pairs of points 23
24 SST impact on rainfall SPATIAL MAP of the regression coefficient regression coefficient of the rainfall sensitivity to the SST anomaly in the WSST region 24
25 SST impact on rainfall + - significant values at the 90% significance level determined by correlation coefficients based on 29 degrees of freedom. Positive rainfall sensitivity to 1-K SST warming over the domain. Higher and statistically significant sensitivity was observed for oceanic rainfall near the WSST region. Rainfall in the WPH increased by ~100 mm K -1 SST warming in the WSST 25
26 Conclusions 1. Onset of southwest monsoon is very abrupt in mid-may, while it retreats gradually from the north in mid- September, and fully retreat in late October. 2. Best RCM resolutions reproducing summer monsoon rainfall on the northwestern coast of the Philippines: 12.5km for spatial distribution of climatological monthly rainfall, 5km for interannual monthly rainfall amount. 3. Positive SST anomalies in WSST region induce positive rainfall anomalies in the WPH region. Based on regression analysis, WPH rainfall is modulated by interannual variation in WSST by ~100mm per 1K SST warming.
27 The END Thank you!. Sunset in the Manila Bay on March 27, 2007
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