HAZUS-MH: A Predictable Hurricane Risk Assessment Tool for the City of Houston and Harris County Presented by Melvin G. Spinks, P.E., President Annie Ding, PhD, GISP October 29, 2008 Rice University
Contents Overview of HAZUS-MH Harris County hurricane and flood risk assessment Real-time supporting disaster operations during Hurricane Rita, Tropical Storm Edouard,, and Hurricane Ike City of Houston Wind Reporting Tool Hurricane Ike ground truth
Overview of HAZUS-MH Developed by FEMA under contract with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) A GIS-based application package Predicts loss estimates based on current scientific knowledge of the effects of hurricane winds, floods, and earthquakes
Overview of HAZUS-MH Estimates debris and shelter needs Provides tools to model mitigation strategies Can be used to predict wind damage based on National Hurricane Center real-time Hurricane Advisories Can be used to support disaster event preparation & post storm recovery
Hurricane Wind and Flood Risk Assessment for Harris County County Wide Risk Assessment (Level 1) Hurricane Wind and Flood risk analysis using default building inventory & LiDAR DEM Watershed Analysis A Level 2 analysis for a pilot watershed using local building inventory data & LiDAR DEM Evaluation of HAZUS-MH with HEC-FDA
Harris County Hurricane Wind Risk HAZUS-MH Level 1 Modeled Category Building Stock Exposure Expected Building Damage (count) Essential Facility Functionality Building-Related Economic Loss (Million Dollars) Total Hospitals Schools Total Debris (Million Cubic Yards) Fire Stations Police Stations Building Loss Business Interruption # People Needing Short Term Shelter Residential Commercial Residential Commercial Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale 1 2 3 5 $244 Billion (868,176 Buildings) 1,168 16,587 165,294 686,977 1,108 16,223 161,738 670,945 48 300 2,898 12,672 100% 99% 36% 0% 100% 100% 12% 0% 100% 100% 14% 0% 100% 100% 24% 0% 48 585 4,101 51,984 46 558 3,560 39,776 1 21 380 7,660 1 64 758 10,751 49 649 4,859 62,736 0.2 1 7 44 0 192 3,522 56,134
Level 2 Analysis White Oak Bayou Watershed Area: 111 sq mi Population: 416,000 Census Blocks: 5,221 Local appraisal data LiDAR DEM (15 x 15 ) Using FIT TSARP Cross Sections
Level 2 Analysis Comparing Analysis Results Economic Loss Economic Loss in Millions $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Level1 Level2 Residential HEC- FDA $0 0.2% Flood Frequency $500 Commercial 500-Year Floodplain FIT vs. TSARP TSARP: Tropical Storm Allison Recovery Project Economic Loss in Millions $400 $300 $200 $100 Level1 Level2 HEC- FDA HEC-FDA: USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center Flood Reduction Analysis $0 0.2% Flood Frequency
HAZUS-MH Supports Disaster Operations During Rita, Edouard,, and Ike
Ike Facts Made landfall on September 13, 2:10 am Landfall as Category 2 at Port Bolivar Winds of 110 mph Effected 25 counties and parish in Texas and Louisiana Third most costliest hurricane to ever hit the United States 31.5 billion estimated damage ($27 billion US coastal area) Wikipedia
HAZUS-MH runs begin at 10 am on Sept. 10, 2008 Advisory #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 Release Time (CDT) 9/10/08, 12:00 pm 9/10/08, 5:00 pm 9/11/08, 9:00 am 9/11/08, 11:00 am 9/11/08, 5:00 pm 9/11/08, 10:00 pm 9/12/08, 7:00 am 9/12/08, 10:00 am 9/12/08, 5:00 pm 9/12/08, 10:00 pm Ike Economic Damage Advisories were released to Elected Officials, Public Officials, and Emergency management Agencies
Hurrevac Advisory #38 IKE 9/10/2008 10:00AM CDT Direct Economic Losses of approximately $0.6M in wind-induced building and content damage for 5 counties Hurrevac Advisory #46 IKE 9/12/2008 10:00AM CDT Direct Economic Losses of approximately $15 billion in wind-induced building and content damage for 5 counties Hurrevac Advisory #49A IKE 9/14/2008 4:00PM CDT Direct Economic Losses of approximately $9 billion in wind-induced building and content damage for 5 counties
Houstonhidefromthewind.org City of Houston Wind Data Website
Hurricane Ike Ground Truth - Aftermath Model Validation Wind Field Debris Shelters Building Damages
Ike Landfall WeatherFlow Sensor & Florida Coastal Monitor Program Tower Location
Observed Peak Gust Wind 73 75 92 68 86 83 75 89 116 75 81 89 112 WeatherFlow Sensor & Florida Coastal Monitor Program Tower Location
Kemah Max Gust: 75 mph Max Mean: 54 mph Precision WeatherFlow sensor installed, calibrated, and maintained by WeatherFlow
Pierce Junction Max Gust: 86 mph Max Mean: 58 mph Precision WeatherFlow sensor installed, calibrated, and maintained by WeatherFlow
Modeled Wind Field Peak Gust
Wind Data Comparison 140 Observed Wind (mph) 120 100 80 60 40 20 y = 0.9708x R 2 = 0.9349 WeatherFlow Data CFMP Tow er Data Linear 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Modeled Wind (mph)
Tree Debris Modeling with HAZUS-MH Default Data Ground roughness length Tree inventory Stems per acre Tree heights Predominate tree type Collection factor Bulking factor
Surveyed 49 Census Tracts
Tree Debris Data Comparison 12 11 Surveyed (Cubic Yard/Household) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 y = 1.0967x R 2 = 0.4246 Tree Debris Linear (Tree 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Modeled (Cubic Yard/Household)
Debris Estimation (Million Cubic Yards) Source of Estimation City of Houston Harris County Texas HAZUS-MH Tree Debris 2.1 2.7 13 USACE HAZUS-MH Other Debris HAZUS-MH (L1) Beaumont Enterprise Debris Picked Up 2.4 4.5 4-7 No Data 4.1* 2.1 4.8 1.3-3 No Data 1.4** 8 21 No Data 18.3 No Data *City of Houston project total on 10/15/08: 5.6 million cubic yard; **As of 10/5/08. Harris County refer to areas within county boundary but outside City of Houston limits
Future Tree Debris Modeling with Improve Local Data Ground roughness length Tree inventory Stems per acre Tree heights Predominate tree type Collection factor Bulking factor
Ike Shelters Shelter Location Number of Residents Number of Shelters Source Austin Convention Center 6,000 "Hurricane Ike Evacuees Move From Austin Shelter", CBS 42 Reporter: Bettie Cross, 9/25 9:29am; www.keyetv.com San Antonio 4,864 14 "S.A. shelters brace for long haul", www.mysanantonio.com, Web Posted: 09/16/2008 Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex 1,919 24 "Thousands of Hurricane Ike evacuees take shelter in Dallas, Tarrant County"; dallas.bizjournals.com; Dallas Business Journal; 9/15/2008 Dallas 1,279 4 "Thousands of Hurricane Ike evacuees take shelter in Dallas, Tarrant County"; dallas.bizjournals.com; Dallas Business Journal; 9/15/2008 Waco 1,650 "Evacuees remain in Waco as Hurricane Ike cleanup continues", Cindy V. Culp, wacotrib.com, 9/16/2008 Greater Houston Area 1,832 24 "Red Cross to open shelters after Ike passes", blogs.chron.com, 9/12/2008; "First Lady visits Ike shelter in Houston"; /www.kvue.com, October 4, 2008; www.chron.com Others 15,456 "Red Cross to open shelters after Ike passes", blogs.chron.com, 9/12/2008; www.kvue.com, October 4, 2008 Statewide 33,000 317 "S.A. shelters brace for long haul", www.mysanantonio.com, Web Posted: 09/16/2008
Ike Building Damages HAZUS-MH estimated Ike wind-induced building damage (Level 1) Texas Statewide Number of Structures: 6.6 million Estimated Damage: 460,000 Value of Structures: $1,328 billion Estimated Damage: $10 billion
Ike Building Damages HAZUS-MH estimated windinduced building damage (Level 2*) Harris County Number of Structures: 1.2 million Estimated Damage: 326,000 (27%) Value of Structures: $258 billion Estimated Damage: $5.3 billion (2%) *HAZUS-MH Level 2 analysis based on HCAD 2008 certified data.
Summary HAZUS-MH can provide reliable economic damage estimates for communities subject to floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Information can be generated near real-time and also pre- and post-disaster for storm and hurricane events on a county-level. With HAZUS-MH, government officials can better plan safe and secure communities ahead of severe storms.
Related Publications Evaluation of HAZUS-MH Flood Model with Local Data and Other Program,, A. Ding, J. F. White, et. al., Natural Hazard Reviews, Vol. 9(1), February 2008. Harris County, Texas Uses HAZUS-MH for Risk Assessment and Hurricane Preparedness, FEMA Website: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/hz_harriscotx.shtm City of Houston OEM Wind Data Website: http://houstonhidefromthewind.org/
Thank you & Questions