Risk Identification using Hazus

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1 Risk Identification using Hazus City of Boston, Suffolk County, MA Dave Shortman, GISP, CFM 6/21/2016

2 Agenda Objective Project Location Hazus Overview Hazus Level 2 Risk Assessment Comparison and Reporting of Results Conclusions 2

3 3 Objective

4 Objective The main objective of the study was to determine the potential economic loss associated with coastal flooding Also to compare results from Hazus 2.1 to 3.1 4

5 5 Project Location

6 6 Project Location - Suffolk County, MA

7 Hazus Overview

8 Hazus FEMA s HAZards United States (HAZUS) tool is designed to produce loss estimates for use by federal, state, regional and local governments and private enterprises in planning for risk mitigation, emergency preparedness, response and recovery HAZUS includes capabilities to analyze earthquakes, floods and hurricane winds Hazus was recently updated with census 2010 data

9 Damage Levels of Analysis Link HAZUS with Hydraulic Model Community-Specific Damage Functions 45% Distribution of Terrain 40% Level 3 Percentage of Area 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Open/Coastal Light Suburb. Med. Suburb. Dense Suburb. Urban Level 2 Modify Building Inventory Aerial Photo Flood Depth Level 1 Building Count Number of Buildings by Specific Occupancy 20 0 RES1 RES2 RES3 RES4 RES5 RES6 Use Default Databases Level 1 9

10 Flood Model Methodology Estimate Losses Determine Damage Define and Overlay Inventory Define Hazard: Flood Surface Land Surface 10

11 Level 1 Analysis Floodplain Boundary

12 Level 1 Analysis Buildings with Substantial Damage

13 Level 1 Analysis Total Losses

14 14 HAZUS Level 2 Risk Assessment

15 Boston Harbor HAZUS Study Level 2 analysis using historic flood hazard information and census data Effective Flooding (1990) Level 2 analysis using detailed engineering data along with census data Preliminary (2013) and Revised Preliminary (2015, new effective) Modified Level 2

Defining the Hazards Topographic data from FEMA s Charles River HUC 8 LiDAR FY2010 Flood surface generated from Effective Data (1990 FIS, study performed in 1987) Preliminary Data (November 15, 2013)

16 Defining the Hazards Topographic data from FEMA s Charles River HUC 8 LiDAR FY2010 Flood surface generated from Effective Data (1990 FIS, study performed in 1987) Preliminary Data (November 15, 2013) Revised Preliminary Data (July 9, 2015) Using CHAMP/WHAFIS results along with updated elevation data we developed depth grids that are compatible with the HAZUS model Census data from Hazus 2.1 & 3.1

17 Defining the Hazards Topographic data from FEMA s Charles River HUC 8 LiDAR FY2010 Flood surface generated from Effective Data (1990 FIS, study performed in 1987) Preliminary Data (November 15, 2013) Revised Preliminary Data (July 9, 2015) Using CHAMP/WHAFIS results along with updated elevation data we developed depth grids that are compatible with the HAZUS model Census block data from Hazus 2.1 & 3.1

18 Waterfront Development Areas South Boston Waterfront (Effective SFHA overlay) Coastal Updates

19 Waterfront Development Areas South Boston Waterfront (Preliminary SFHA overlay) Coastal Updates

20 Waterfront Development Areas East Boston Shorefront (Effective SFHA overlay) Coastal Updates

21 Waterfront Development Areas East Boston Shorefront (Preliminary SFHA overlay) Coastal Updates

22 Defining the Hazards MEDFORD Topographic data from FEMA s Charles River HUC 8 LiDAR FY2010 Flood surface generated from Effective Data (1990 FIS, study performed in 1987) Preliminary Data (November 15, 2013) Revised Preliminary Data (July 9, 2015) Using CHAMP/WHAFIS results along with updated elevation data we developed depth grids that are compatible with the HAZUS model Census block data from Hazus 2.1 & 3.1 N SOMERVILLE CAMBRIDGE Fenway Charles River Legend whdepth2015 Value High : Low : Back Bay Town Boundary Neighborhoods South End West End Beacon Hill Bay Village EVERETT Mystic River Charlestown Chinatown North End Downtown Leather District Fort Point Channel BOSTON South Boston Waterfront South Boston CHELSEA Boston Harbor East Boston Miles Chelsea River REVERE WINTHROP Boston Harbor Hazus Woods Hole Group Residential Total Loss

23 Defining the Hazards Topographic data from FEMA s Charles River HUC 8 LiDAR FY2010 Flood surface generated from Effective Data (1990 FIS, study performed in 1987) Preliminary Data (November 15, 2013) Revised Preliminary Data (July 9, 2015) Using CHAMP/WHAFIS results along with updated elevation data we developed depth grids that are compatible with the HAZUS model Census block data from Hazus 2.1 & 3.1

24 Dasymetric Data Hazus 2.1 Hazus

25 25 Results

26 Mystic River Total Losses Effective Hazus 2.1 Hazus 3.1 MEDFORD REVERE EVERETT SOMERVILLE CHELSEA Chelsea River Charlestown East Boston WINTHROP CAMBRIDGE West End North End Charles River Back Bay Beacon Hill Bay Village Downtown Leather District Chinatown Fort Point Channel Boston Harbor Fenway South Boston Waterfront South End BOSTON South Boston Legend TotalLoss 0 Town Boundary Neighborhoods N Miles Boston Harbor Hazus Effective Total Loss

27 Mystic River Total Losses Revised Preliminary Hazus 2.1 Hazus 3.1 MEDFORD REVERE EVERETT SOMERVILLE CHELSEA Chelsea River Charlestown East Boston WINTHROP CAMBRIDGE West End North End Charles River Back Bay Beacon Hill Bay Village Downtown Leather District Chinatown Fort Point Channel Boston Harbor Fenway South Boston Waterfront South End BOSTON South Boston Legend TotalLoss 0 Town Boundary Neighborhoods N Over Miles Boston Harbor Hazus Revised Preliminary Total Loss

28 Summary Hazus 2.1 Results: Overall Exposure: $32,381.1M Damages: Effective Total: $305M Building Loss: Contents Loss: Other Loss*: $141.5M $158.5M $50.1M Revised Preliminary Total: $973.2M Building Loss: Contents Loss: Other Loss*: $345.7M $592.7M $34.8M Hazus 3.1 Results Overall Exposure: $94,466.4M* Damages: Effective Total: $268.8M Building Loss: Contents Loss: Other Loss*: $119.9M $145.0M $3.9M Revised Preliminary Total: $1,274.6M Building Loss: $434.1M Content Loss: $800.9M Other Loss: $39.7M *Other Loss Includes Inventory, Relocation, Income, Rental Income, and Wage Losses

29 Structure Density Boston North Structures Added to Preliminary SFHA Coastal Updates

30 Population Density Boston North Population Density for Structures Within the Preliminary SFHA Coastal Updates Structure Density Population Density for Structures Within the Preliminary SFHA

Changes Since Last FIRM Community Change Area Increase Area mi 2 mi 2 Area Decrease mi 2 Area Net mi 2 Boston CHHA 5.3 2.0 0.0 2.0 Boston SFHA 12.3 2.8 0.2 2.6 Boston NonSFHA 2.0 1.4 0.0 1.4 Chelsea CHHA 0.

31 Changes Since Last FIRM Community Change Area Increase Area mi 2 mi 2 Area Decrease mi 2 Area Net mi 2 Boston CHHA Boston SFHA Boston NonSFHA Chelsea CHHA Chelsea SFHA Chelsea NonSFHA Revere CHHA Revere SFHA Revere NonSFHA Winthrop CHHA Winthrop SFHA Winthrop NonSFHA Suffolk County CHHA Suffolk County SFHA Suffolk County NonSFHA Change Definitions CHHA coastal high hazard area (Velocity zone increase/decrease SFHA special flood hazard area increase/decrease (Zone A, AE, AO, AH) NonSFHA 0.2% Annual Chance Flood increase/decrease

32 Comparison to HAZUS-MH Values in Draft Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan Analysis done by Metropolitan Area Planning Commission Earthquake Damages 5.0 magnitude with an epicenter in downtown Boston - $3,450.0M 6.0 magnitude with an epicenter on Cape Ann - $431.7M 6.5 magnitude with an epicenter in central New Hampshire - $457.1M Wind Damages 1938 Hurricane - $372.2M Hurricane Carol (1954) - $819.6M Hurricane Irene (2011) - $8.6M Riverine and Stream Flooding (100 year event) Charles River Watershed - $16.6M Mother Brook Watershed - $105.6M Muddy River Watershed - $81.1M Mystic River Watershed - $9.0M Combined - $212.3M

33 Conclusions Updated SFHA and topographic data provide more accurate results Hazus 3.1 gives an up to date assessment of exposure and damages Boston coastal housing and commercial stock has gained significant value since 2000 census Coastal development has increased Barring a major event the growth in Boston will continue Hazus with 2020 census? Flood Risk Assesment Database cannot handle these values (Long data type ~ 2.1 billion)

34 Questions?

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