Operational sea ice forecasting and navigation service for Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition (CHINARE)
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1 Operational sea ice forecasting and navigation service for Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition (CHINARE) Lin Zhang, Chunhua Li, Qinghua Yang, Shang Meng, Ming Li, Qizhen Sun and Jiechen Zhao National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, China 13 MAY
2 Who we are National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center(NMEFC) A part of State Oceanic Administration(SOA) An exclusive state-authorized institution which provide forecasting service to CHINARE Operational forecasting service from the first CHINARE in 1984 to present 2
3 NMEFC'S Departments Polar Environmental Research & Forecasting Division
4 Forecast Service - NMEFC The Polar environmental research & forecasting division and the Marine weather forecasting division are responsible for the Antarctic station and navigation forecasting respectively. (Antarctic,1984-) (Arctic,1999,2003, 2008,2010,2012,2014) Great Wall station(1985-,overall view) Xuelong Zhongshan station(1989-) 4
5 Polar observations (weather, sea ice and ocean) Polar forecasting service (weather, sea ice and ocean)
6 Antarctic Meteorological Observation Joint work with CAMS (Chinese Academy of Meteorology Science). Weather observational field (Great Wall Station) Zhongshan meteorological station
7 Meteorological Observation Onboard automatic weather stations (AWS) onboard Xuelong
8 Satellite Receiving System Onboard
9 Antarctic fast ice wintering observation From CHINARE 26, (a) Antarctic fast ice observation field, (b) fixed and (c) mobile radiation station. ( )
10 CHINARE : CNR4 Radiation and albedo Snow thickness: sonar + manual Ice thickness: 2 IMB + drilling Ice(Snow) Skin temperature Air surface temperature 2013: EM-31 ice thickness survey Spectral albedo IMB improvement 2014: Air-ice Eddy turbulent fluxes Micro-CTD profiles IMB(Ice Mass Balance)
11 Ice drilling IMB Spectral albedo EM-31 thickness survey
12 albedo albedo (a) OBS( 0. 70) PW79( 0. 75) HI RHAM(0.65) ARCSYM(0.65) CCSM3( 0. 67) CCSM3- M( 0. 70) Year 2010 (b) OBS( 0. 49) PW79( 0. 57) HI RHAM(0.63) ARCSYM(0.63) CCSM3( 0. 57) CCSM3- M( 0. 49) (a) (b) Year 2011 Albedo parameterization results vs observation (Yang et al., AS, 2015, submitted)
13 Ice thickness (cm) Ice growing rate (cm d 1) First year ice Multi year ice Snow depth (cm) Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Difference of first-year and multi-year fast ice (Zhao et al., 2015, in preparison)
14 Satellite Monitoring L/X satellite receiving system L:NOAA15 19 / AVHRR X:Terra Aqua / MODIS orbits every day,8 9G
15 Satellite Monitoring & Application 15
16 Polar observations (weather, sea ice and ocean) Polar forecasting service (weather, sea ice and ocean)
17 Polar weather forecast d03 d02 Model: Polar WRF Resolution: 30km; 10km; 3.33km
18 Polar weather forecast operational weather forecasting for polar regions Products includes: Sea level pressure, temperature,humidity, precipitation tendency Surface wind directon and speed 850hPa, 700hPa and 500hPa geopotential height
19 Sea ice forecasting system Atmospheric Forcing NCEP GFS / Polar WRF Initialization: Nudging AMSR2 Sea ice concentration MITgcm Ocean Model VP Ice Model Output h: Ice concentration Thickness Velocity Flow chart
20 Sea ice forecasting system Ensemble-Filter sea ice data assimilation multivariate data assimilation summer ice thickness improvement (not expected). SMOS ice thickness assimilation leads to much better thickness forecasts (expected), and better concentration forecasts (not expected). (Yang et al., AoG, 2014; JGR, 2014; QJRMS, 2015)
21 Sea ice forecasting system b.aspx
22 Ice concentration long-term forecast from NCEP CFSv2 (1-3 month lead time) a.forecast b.oberservation Collaboration with NCEP
23 Arctic and Antarctic sea ice seasonal outlook Statistic model based; The prediction provides support for the CHINARE planning.
24 Li and Li (2014) Li and Li (2014), submitted to SIPN (Sea Ice Prediction Network); ice outlook/2014/august 24
25 Sea Ice Service for CHINARE Ice analysis based on SAR
26 Ice Service commercial ship Ice service for Chinese commercial shipping in Arctic
27 Emergency forecasting Service when Xuelong Trapped in the Antarctic, 2014
28 Emergency forecasting Service when Xuelong Trapped in the Antarctic,
29 International Cooperation
30 Thanks for your attention! Please feel free to contact us if you have any questions Lin Zhang: Qinghua Yang: 30
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Climate Division: CA 2 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 53.3 31.8 42.6 74+ 1975
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Climate Division: CA 2 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 53.7 32.7 43.2 79 1962
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Climate Division: CA 6 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 68.5 45.7 57.1 90 1971
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Climate Division: CA 5 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 59.3 31.5 45.4 80 1976
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Climate Division: CA 7 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 44.5 29.3 36.9 69 1951
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Climate Division: CA 7 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 56.0 35.7 45.9 83 1975
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Climate Division: CA 7 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 1 Number of s (3) 64.8 45.4 55.1 85 1971
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Climate Division: CA 7 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 1 Number of s (3) 65.5 38.7 52.1 87 1962
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Climate Division: CA 2 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 53.3 37.1 45.2 77 1962
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Climate Division: CA 7 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 58.8 34.3 46.6 81+ 1948
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Climate Division: CA 7 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) 70.4 44.2 57.3 95 1971
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Climate Division: CA 1 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) Jan 57.9 38.9 48.4 85
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Climate Division: CA 4 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) Jan 49.4 37.5 43.5 73
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Climate Division: CA 5 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) Jan 56.6 36.5 46.6 81
Climatography of the United States No
Climate Division: CA 4 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) Jan 55.6 39.3 47.5 77
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Climate Division: CA 5 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) Jan 44.8 25.4 35.1 72
Climatography of the United States No
Climate Division: CA 6 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 100 Number of s (3) Jan 69.4 46.6 58.0 92
Climatography of the United States No
Climate Division: CA 4 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 1 Number of s (3) Jan 58.5 38.8 48.7 79 1962
Climatography of the United States No
Climate Division: CA 1 NWS Call Sign: Month (1) Min (2) Month(1) Extremes Lowest (2) Temperature ( F) Lowest Month(1) Degree s (1) Base Temp 65 Heating Cooling 1 Number of s (3) Jan 57.8 39.5 48.7 85 1962
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