WCRP/WWRP-THORPEX Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Mitch Moncrieff (NCAR) and Duane Waliser (JPL/CalTech) Co-Chairs, YOTC Science Planning Group

Transcription

1 WCRP/WWRP-THORPEX Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Mitch Moncrieff (NCAR) and Duane Waliser (JPL/CalTech) Co-Chairs, YOTC Science Planning Group FIGURE 1. Primary temporal scales of tropical convection (diurnal, seasonal) and the discrete spatial spectrum of organized moist convection [mesoscale convective systems (MCS), synoptic waves, and the MJO]. The discrete spectrum exhibits a further level of coherence: i) mesoscale systems are families of cumulonimbus; ii) synoptic waves are families of cumulonimbus and MCS); MJO is an envelope of superclusters, MCS, and cumulonimbus). Understanding the upscale effects of convective organization is a crucial element of the MJO, monsoons, and lower-frequency aspects, e.g., ENSO, climate variability. 1

2 FIGURE 2. Three principal components of the YOTC project: i) High-resolution global analysis and prediction; ii) observational analyses of satellite, field-campaign and in-situ data; iii) research involving diagnostic studies of the global prediction models, cloudsystem resolving models, idealized numerical models, and theory. Coordinated jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)-THORPEX, the YOTC project involves institutions, research groups and individuals world-wide. Draws from high-resolution climate models, global NWP, cloud-system resolving models, super-parameterization, dynamical models; satellite and field observations; theory. YOTC is a response to the tropical convection of the PDP section of the THORPEX Science Plan and the 2006 ICTP Workshop. Scientific emphasis: Tropical moist convection, its multi-scale organization and interaction with the global circulation, e.g., MJO; convectively-coupled waves; the monsoons; easterly waves and tropical cyclones; tropical-extratropical interaction; diurnal cycle. Intersection of weather and climate (timescales up to seasonal or seamless prediction). 2

3 Science elements: Effects of organized moist convection in the km (mesocale) range. Interaction between moist convection and convectively coupled tropical waves. Scale-invariance: ~1000 km supercluster and ~100 km mesoscale convective systems. Weather-climate intersection: Use insights from global weather prediction models to accelerate climate model development, e.g., represent (presently missing) meso-convective circulations, and the diurnal cycle over continents. Comparative role of cumulus parameterization and explicit convective organization in high-resolution models. YOTC Science Plan is published, YOTC Implementation Plan is a live web document ( includes links to data, science documents, meetings, collaborations, and general information. For more information see Moncrieff et al. (2007), Waliser and Moncrieff (2008). YOTC Project Office based at NCAR is supported jointly by NSF, NOAA, and NASA through the US THORPEX Executive Committee (USTEC). Summary of accomplishments Outreach: YOTC science sessions at the fall AGU'08, spring AGU'09, AMS'09, AGU'10, AGU Meeting of the Americas 10. About 100 YOTC presentations, e.g., 3rd Joint Scientific Committee for WWRP; 3 rd THORPEX Science Symposium; 13 th Session of the Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM); 2009 VAMOS Science Team meeting; 2010 North American THORPEX Workshop in Mexico; 2010 MJO Task Force Workshop in Busan, Korea. YOTC paper included in a Compendium for the World Climate Conference - 3 (WCC3), WMO, Geneva (solicited by GEO). YOTC presented as a compelling example at the 2010 GEOSS Meeting of Ministers, Beijing, China (solicited by GEO). Coordinated papers describing YOTC submitted to BAMS (Moncrieff et al. 2010, Waliser et al. 2010). Chapter in AGU book on climate dynamics (Moncrieff 2010) highlights role of organized tropical convection at the weather-climate intersection. 3

4 Data sets: High resolution analyses and deterministic forecasts, with diabatic and other process-oriented fields archived: ECMWF at T799 (about 25km). The Year includes El Nino, La Nina, and Arctic Oscillation conditions, unique information on short-term climate variability. YOTC-ECMWF database (May 2008-April 2010) analysis, forecasts and special process-oriented diagnostics) ported to NCAR, available via a web-based interface. Also available: NASA/GMAO GEOS5 (¼ degree), and NCEP at about 35km. NASA HQ supported development of a satellite data analysis and dissemination framework for YOTC (YOTC-Giovanni) completed. Transpose AMIP CMIP5 Model Evaluations YOTC-ECMWF Analysis 4 periods; 16 5-day hindcasts in each 9 proposed subprojects, e.g. Cloud Regimes, Williams; MJO, Moncrieff. Modeling Group Pledges EC-Earth (Frank Selten) IPSL (Sandrine Bony) Met Office (Keith Williams) Meteo France (Michel Deque) MIROC (Masahide Kimoto) MPI (Bjorn Stevens) MRI (Masahide Kimoto) NCAR (David Williamson) Figure 3: The plate on the right (courtesy Matt Wheeler) illustrates MJO activity during the Year. Weak and short lived MJOs during the first part gave way to strong successive MJOs during the latter part. The red bands show the four transpose AMIP periods identified for the Transpose AMIP (CMIP5) model evaluation involving eight climate models. 4

5 Goddard Giovanni System for YOTC (YOTC-GS) The Goddard Giovanni for YOTC project at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) and Data Information Services Center facilitates NASA satellite data usage by providing a way for the YOTC community to easily read, subset, visualize, access, and harmonize data from multiple space-borne sensors. Two beta Giovanni prototypes have been released recently: YOTC-GS L3 is a web-based graphics and analysis tool to explore Level 3 data products (MODIS Terra, Aqua AIRS, AMSR-E, TRMM, etc.) YOTC-GS L2 is a web-based graphics and analysis tool to explore Level 2 data products (TRMM, AIRS, Merged IR, QuikSCAT, AMSR-E, etc.) YOTC-GS L3 contains daily mosaics of 88 parameters ranging from cloud top temperature to aerosol optical depth, providing environmental conditions of both global and regional scales in 2 and 3 dimensions. 7 functions are available for data analysis and visualization. Users can download analysis results, original data or subsets for further analysis as well. YOTC-GS L2 provides an easy access to Level-2 satellite orbital data, also known as swath data. Currently there are ~14 parameters for profile and 60 parameters for swath. With YOTC-GS L2, users can plot a profile or generate a swath map for an event displayed in the map selection area (see Figure 1). Additional tools are the Hurricane Data Analysis Tool (HDAT: allowing to access 11 years of geostationary IR data and generate customized B/W and false color imagery and animation. Other useful Giovanni tools can be found in: All Giovanni tools are web-based, allowing to access data without data and software downloading. Additional resources for the Giovanni Systems are available: 5

6 FIGURE 4: Example of a MJO event using YOTC-GS and other Giovanni tools: a) Hovmöller diagram showing an eastward propagation of precipitation; b) Relative humidity time-pressure cross section map showing a dry period after the rain event; c) Averaging OLR maps showing the eastward propagation of convective clouds; d) Relative humidity latitude-pressure cross section map averaged during the rain event, showing a high concentration of moisture near the surface in the south of the raining area and dry areas centered at 600 mb in both north and south of the raining area; e) Accumulated rainfall maps showing the eastward propagation of precipitation; and f) Overlay of the TRMM daily rainfall and the QuikSCAT streamlines showing cyclonic flows near the southern edge of the rainband. 6

7 Collaborative research ongoing/in development Multi-model transpose-amip experiments (i.e., climate models run in weather mode) addressing critical issues challenging weather and climate models involving 5-day initialized forecasts for the YOTC period (see Fig. 3). Global cloud-system resolving model experiments focused on YOTC periods of interest: Japan NICAM, UK Cascade, NASA GMAO, and NCAR models. Tropical intraseasonal multi-model (~15 models) 20-year hindcast experiments with additional output and analysis focused on the YOTC period, in association with CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel (AAMP) and Asian Monsoon Years (AMY). Extension of the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison (GPCI) for the June-August 2008 period during the Year. Synergistic forecast and analysis study in the Atlantic sector of easterly waves, tropical cyclones and their modulation by intraseasonal variability. Tropical-extratropical interaction studies on summer and winter T-PARC including the life cycle and impacts of tropical convection on the prediction and predictability of mid-latitude weather variability, e.g., extratropical-transition effects on storm tracks. Future developments Advocate support for the research phase of the YOTC project. Continue advocacy of the YOTC project at the national and international level, including involvement of the tropical nations. Convene the YOTC International Science Symposium, May 16-19, 2011, Beijing, China in conjunction with the 8 th Asian Monsoon Years (AMY) Workshop, see Contributions to emerging initiatives, e.g., sub-seasonal prediction? References Moncrieff, M.W., M. Shapiro, J. Slingo, and F. Molteni, 2007: Collaborative research at the intersection of weather and climate. WMO Bulletin, 56, Moncrieff, M.W., 2010: The multiscale organization of moist convection and the intersection of weather and climate. AGU Geophys. Monog, 189, Why does Climate Vary? Ed. D. Sun and F. Bryan, Moncrieff, M.W., D.E. Waliser, M.A. Shapiro, G.R. Asrar, and J. Caughey, 2010: Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC): The scientific basis. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., submitted. Waliser, D.E., M.W. Moncrieff, 2008: Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Science Plan,WMO/TD-No. 1452, WCRP -130, WWRP/THORPEX- No 9, 26 pp. 7

8 Waliser, D. E., M. Moncrieff, D. Burridge, A. Fink, D Gochis, B. N. Goswami, B. Guan, P. Harr, J. Heming, H.-H. Hsu, C. Jakob, M. Janiga, R. Johnson, S. Jones, P. Knippertz, J. Marengo, H. Nguyen, M. Pope, Y. Serra, C. Thorncroft, M. Wheeler, R. Wood, and S. Yuter, 2010: The "Year" of Tropical Convection (May 2008 to April 2010): Climate Variability and Weather Highlights. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., submitted. 8

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