The Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project

Transcription

1 The Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Bridging the gap between weather and climate Slide 1 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016 Co-chairs: Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF) Andrew Robertson 1 (IRI)

2 Mission Statement To improve forecast skill and understanding on the sub seasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high impact weather events To promote the initiative s uptake by operational centres and exploitation by the applications community To capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services Slide 2 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016

3 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Interactions and teleconnections between midlatitudes and tropics Sub-Projects Madden-Julian Oscillation Monsoons Africa Extremes Verification Research Issues Predictability Teleconnection O-A Coupling Scale interactions Physical processes Slide 3 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016 Modelling Issues Initialisation Ensemble generation Resolution O-A Coupling Systematic errors Multi-model combination S2S Database Needs & Applications Liaison with SERA (Working Group on Societal and Economic Research Applications)

4 Conferences/Education outreach June 2015: 3 day workshop on Sub seasonal to seasonal predictability of monsoons (Jeju, Republic of Korea) April 2016: 3 day workshop co organized with MJO TF on intra seasonal processes and prediction in the Maritime Continent. Singapore Nov, 2015: 2 week training course at ICTP (Trieste, Italy) for young scientists from developing countries Slide 4 WGNE Meeting 29 April

5 Slide 5 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016 S2S Database

6 S2S Database Daily real time forecasts + re forecasts 3 weeks behind real time Common grid (1.5x1.5 degree) Variables archived: about 80 variables including ocean variables, stratospheric levels and soil moisture and temperature Slide 6 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016

7 Contributing Centres to S2S database Data provider (11) Archiving centre (2) ECMWF NCEP EC UKMO Météo France ISAC HMCR KMA CMA JMA BoM Slide 7 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016

8 S2S partners Timerange Resol. Ens. Size Freq. Hcsts Hcst length Hcst Freq Hcst Size ECMWF D 0-46 T639/319L /week On the fly Past 20y 2/weekly 11 UKMO D 0-60 N216L85 4 daily On the fly /month 3 NCEP D 0-44 N126L64 4 4/daily Fix /daily 1 EC D x0.6L40 21 weekly On the fly weekly 4 CAWCR D 0-60 T47L17 33 weekly Fix /month 33 JMA D 0-34 T319L /weekly Fix /month 5 KMA D 0-60 N216L85 4 daily On the fly /month 3 CMA D 0-45 T106L40 4 daily Fix daily 4 CNRM D 0-32 T255L91 51 Weekly Fix /monthly 15 CNR-ISAC D x0.56 L54 40 weekly Fix /month 1 HMCR D x1.4 L28 20 weekly Fix weekly 10 Slide 8 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016

9 Slide 9 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016

10 S2S Database current status Open access to researchers from ECMWF (since May 2015) and CMA (since Nov 2015). Subset of data also available from IRI. Data from nine data providers: ECMWF, NCEP, JMA, BoM, CMA, Météo France, HMCR, ISAC and UKMO Total size of the database: 37.7 Tbytes: real time: 5 Tbytes re forecast: 32.6 TBytes Plans End of 2016: all 11 Data Providers Add new ocean sub surface and sea ice variables Compute and archive indices such as MJO RMMS, SSW index, Weather regimes, Tropical storm tracks, Monsoon indices to be available for the research community from ECMWF and IRI servers. Slide 10 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016

11 Use of the S2S database Since May registered users from 65 countries at ECMWF 139 register users mostly from China at CMA ECMWF Server Slide 11 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016

12 Slide 12 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016 ECMWF S2S server statistics

13 Linkage with CBS A major goal of S2S is to support CBS operational sub seasonal activities Research into sub seasonal predictability under S2S will be conducted in close liaison with developing infrastructure and procedure for operational sub seasonal prediction as they develop under CBS.] It has been proposed to use the S2S database to exchange real time data for CBS activities. Near rt data S2S database + rfcsts lead centre Subset in near real-time WMO users S2S producing centres Slide 13 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016 S2S data portal (3-weeks behind RT) Research and application community 13

14 Slide 14 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016 S2S sub projects

15 MJO Subproject MJO and Maritime Continent (MC) Interactions: Evaluating State of the Art & Characterizing Shortcomings In collaboration with the WGNE MJO Task Force Major Objectives: Assess current model simulation fidelity and prediction forecast skill over the MC across time scales, with emphasis on the MJO, and identify and rectify model biases. What roles do: 1) multi-scale interactions, 2) topography and land-sea contrast, and 3) ocean/land-atmosphere coupling play in the MC-MJO interaction and how do they influence predictability over the MC. Modeling Resources to Exploit 1) S2S Database, 2) MJOTF-GASS Multi-Model Exp and 3) ISVHE Future Field Campaign Year of Maritime Continent (YMC) is a multi-nation effort to carry out a field campaign in investigating multi-scale weather/climate processes over the MC. Workshop Spring 2016 MC Workshop, Singapore sponsored by S2S and MJOTF. Nexus of 1) land, atmosphere & ocean interactions and 2) multi-scale interactions: diurnal, mesoscale, synoptic, subseasonal, seasonal & interannual. Slide 15 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016

16 Local Sponsor & Host Workshop on Intraseasonal Processes and Prediction in the Maritime Continent April 2016 in Singapore Scientific Organization Invitation Only Workshop : Over 50 Participants Assess and advance understanding of MJO-MC interactions with the intention of improving subseasonal prediction in the MC and globally. Session 1: Interactions of the MJO in the MC Region with the Diurnal Cycle Session 2: Interactions of the MJO in the MC Region with Synoptic Variability, the Monsoons, and Interannual Variability Session 3: Interactions of the MJO in the MC Region with the Ocean Session 4: Interactions of the MJO in the MC Region with the Land Sessions 5 & 6: Model Simulations of Subseasonal Variability in the MC Region Summary for S2S Newsletter In Preparation Slide 16 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016

17 Workshop on Intraseasonal Processes and Prediction in the Maritime Continent Local Sponsors: Meteorological Service Singapore and National Environment Agency: Ms. Chin Ling Wong (Director General), Chris Gordon (CCRS Director), Chloe Lim, Krysania Tan Local Organizing Committee: Chris Gordon (CCRS), Teo Chee Kiat (Nanyang Technological U), Tieh Yong Koh (SIM University), Krysania Tan (CCRS) International Organizing Committee: Tieh Yong Koh (Nanyang Technological Univ), Eric Maloney Slide (Colorado 17 State Univ), WGNE Tetsuo Meeting Nakazawa 29 April 2016 (S2S ICO), Andrew Robertson (IRI), Frederic Vitart (ECMWF), Duane Waliser (NASA JPL), Steve Woolnough (U. Reading), Chidong Zhang (U of Miami)

18 Africa sub project Main Goal To develop skilful forecasts on the S2S time scale over Africa and to encourage their uptake by national meteorological services and other stakeholder groups. Objectives: Assess the performance of forecasts for 5-40 days ahead using the S2S forecast archive, with focus on rain-day frequency, heavy rainfall events, dry spells and monsoon onset/cessation dates, with relevance to agriculture, water resources and public health. Develop metrics for measuring the success of forecasts in ways that are useful for farmers and other stakeholder communities. Improve understanding of the climate modes that drive sub-seasonal variability in Africa and their representations in models. The Africa sub-project will work with post-africa Climate Conference 2013 framework (recently named Climate Research for Development CR4D) to connect international with African climate communities. An S2S activity is envisaged to be one of the first CR4D pilot activities, through a joint CR4D-S2S proposal to Future Earth program funding. Slide 18 WGNE Meeting 29 April

19 Monsoon sub project Major Objectives: Development of a set of scientifically and societally relevant intra-seasonal forecast products and metrics that are applicable to all the major monsoon systems which can be monitored with operational real-time forecast systems. Case studies of predictability of monsoon onsets Updates: Sponsored workshop on S2S Predictability of Monsoons in Jeju Korea June 2015 Demonstration project for prediction of active/break episodes of Australian summer monsoon published (Marshall and Hendon 2015), which can be applied to other monsoons: developed simple rainfall and circulation indices that can be monitored with observations (served on S2S-subproject web page) and verified with forecasts, quantified observed and simulated role for MJO, assessed depiction of active/break cycles and verified forecast skill from one model in S2S archive, estimated potential forecast improvement due to improved prediction of the MJO Initiated contact with the new Asian-Australian Monsoon and American Monsoon Task Teams (under WCRP-Monsoon Panel) to lead similar study for other monsoons. Slide 19 WGNE Meeting 29 April

20 Monsoon sub project Slide 20 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016

21 Extreme weather sub project Major Objectives: Evaluate the predictive skill and predictability of weather regimes and extreme events (droughts, floodings, heat and cold waves) Assess the benefit of multi-model forecasting for extreme events Improve understanding of the modulation of extreme weather events by climate modes. Sub-seasonal prediction of tropical storms Case studies selected for the strong societal impact A case study already completed: March 2013 cold wave over Europe. Next cases will includes will include intense tropical cyclone Pam and intra-seasonal variability of precipitation over the US west coast during the 2015 El-Niño event. Slide 21 WGNE Meeting 29 April

22 Tropical Cyclone Pam case study Multi-model prediction of TC strike probability anomalies March 2015 (NCEP/ECMWF/BoM/JMA/CMA) 2015/02/19 day /02/26 day Slide 22 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016

23 Modulation of tropical cyclone density anomaly by MJO MJO Phase 2-3 MJO Phase 4-5 MJO Phase 6-7 MJO Phase 8-1 OBS ECMWF NCEP JMA BoM Multi Slide 23 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016

24 Regimes based on clustering of daily anomalies for 29 cold seasons ( ) 500 hpa geopotential Obtain well-known Euro-Atlantic regime patterns k means clustering applied to EOF pre-filtered data (retaining 80% of variance) m 2 s 2 Slide 24 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016 October 29,

25 Predicting skill associated with the Euro Atlantic Regimes: NAO - NAO + Bom Blocking Bom Atlantic Ridge Bom Slide 25 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016 Bom October 29, 2014 From L Ferranti 25

26 S2S sub-project on verification (and products) Objectives: Recommend verification metrics and datasets for assessing forecast quality of S2S forecasts Provide guidance for a potential centralized effort for comparing forecast quality of different S2S forecast systems, including the comparison of multi-model and individual forecast systems and consider linkages with users and applications Issues to be addressed: Identification of current practises in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts Identification of user-relevant variables and quantities to be verified Provision of guidance on minimum hindcast standards (hindcast length and ensemble size) Promotion of subseasonal forecasting intercomparison efforts and evaluation of benefit of multi-model approach Links with WMO Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR), WMO CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS, WMO LC-LRFMME and other S2S subprojects Slide 26 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016

27 Website: Science plan developed with inputs from JWGFVR, SERA and S2S: Current activities and plans: S2S sub-project on verification (and products) Science plan: Guidance document to stimulate scientific community to address S2S verification problems Questionnaire on subseasonal verification practices in operational centers prepared and sent to Global Operational Centers, with the purpose sharing current practices used to verify subseasonal forecasts (both for operations and research) and also help identify gaps and guide novel developments. Results discussed with WMO CBS/CCl ET OPSLS Literature survey on S2S verification posted on the sub project webpage S2S is now included in the JWGFVR user oriented verification challenge Plans for establishing verification of sub seasonal and longer range forecasts as a theme for the 7th International Verification Methods Workshop (IVMW) organized by the JWGFVR, Berlin in May 2017, and promote a S2S verification and Slide 27 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016 climate metrics session in this workshop

28 Teleconnections (Cristiana Stan and Hai Lin) Better understand and predict sub-seasonal tropicalextratropical interaction pathways Year of Tropics-Midlatitude Interactions and Teleconnections Description Intense coordinated effort involving existing observational data, forecasts and applications, diagnostics, theory and modeling experiments Mission Foster relationships between research, forecasting, and stakeholder communities, and facilitate the sharing of common interests to explore the links between the tropics and midlatitudes for a better prediction skill at intraseasonal time scales Research Questions Are mid-latitude teleconnections from the fluctuating tropical heating fundamentally just time-lagged stationary wave responses to heating, or does time-dependent wave interference play a role? Why are the North Atlantic weather regimes so influenced by MJO-related heating in the distant Indian and Pacific Oceans? What is the role of synoptic-scale transients? Is the impact of extra-tropical forcing associated primarily with the initiation of tropical convection, or can it organize tropical convection of intraseasonal time scale? What is the role of PV streamers? Slide 28 WGNE Meeting 29 April YTMIT mid 2017-mid 2019 Virtual Field Campaign Subseasonal-to-Season Prediction Project

29 Mechanistic Experiments Year of Tropics-Midlatitude Interactions and Teleconnections Mechanisms YTMIT mid 2017-mid 2019 Better understand and predict sub-seasonal tropicalextratropical interaction pathways Satellite Products Diagnostics Tropical- Midlatitude Interactions Prediction Centers Virtual Field Campaign Reanalysis Products S2S DB & NMME Subseasonal-to-Sea Prediction Proje Slide 29 WGNE Meeting 29 April

30 YTMIT Ongoing Activities Review paper to be submitted to Review of Geophysics Overview The virtual field campaign Workshops: Title: Large-Scale Intra-Seasonal Diabatic Heating Variability in the Tropics and Monsoon Regions: Multi-Scale Interactions and Teleconnections Date: June, 6-7, 2016 Venue: George Mason University Sponsor: ONR Title: Systematic Error Date: June 19-23, 2017 Venue: Montreal, Canada Sponsor: WGNE AGU Fall Meeting 2016 Session (proposed) Ongoing activities ICTP School (proposed) Date: 2017 Sponsors: ICTP, WWRP/WCRP/S2S Slide 30 WGNE Meeting 29 April

31 Linkage with WGNE A strong link is already established with the WGNE MJO task Force. Other joint project discussed at previous WGNE meetings: Representation of teleconnections in dynamical models Joint session on teleconnections at the next Systematic Errors Workshop (2017)? Slide 31 WGNE Meeting 29 April

32 MJO Teleconnections (S2S re-forecasts) Analysis ECMWF Z500 anomalies 10 days after an MJO in Phase 3 JMA NCEP CAWCR CNRM EC Slide 32 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016

33 Slide 33 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016 MJO Diagnostics

34 Bivariate Correlation with ERA Interim Ensemble Mean re-forecasts - ALL YEAR Slide 34 WGNE Meeting 29 April

35 Slide 35 WGNE Meeting 29 April

36 Amplitude error relative to ERA Interim Slide 36 WGNE Meeting 29 April

37 Spread/RMS error relationship ECMWF BoM NCEP Slide 37 WGNE Meeting 29 April

38 Spread/RMS Error relationship PC1 and PC2 RT ECMWF 51 members WEEK1 WEEK2 WEEK3 WEEK4 BoM 33 members Slide 38 WGNE Meeting 29 April

39 MJO impacts MJO-NAO teleconnection: modulates significant wave height in NE Atlantic Marshall et al Slide 39 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016