From regional weather to global climate: Progress and Challenges in improving models
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- Barrie Kelly
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1 From regional weather to global climate: Progress and Challenges in improving models Christian Jakob, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia! Special thanks: Martin Miller, Andy Brown, Pier Siebesma, Sandrine Bony, Neville Nicholls, Adrian Simmons, Judith Perlwitz, and a whole lot more people!
2 Some starting points Weather and climate models save lives!! Weather and climate models save property and billions of dollars a year!! Weather and climate models underpin some of the most critical decisions made by society for the near and far future!! Weather and climate models have revolutionised the world, a revolution that has gone largely unnoticed!! However, key issues remain and require a significant transformation of the community to be resolved.!
3 The unnoticed revolution
4 The unnoticed revolution Observations! SST anomaly forecasts for Niño 3 area! Courtesy POAMA team, CAWCR, Australia! 2-5 months forecast!
5 The unnoticed revolution Climate model skill! Better skill! Reichler and Kim, 2008!
6 The unnoticed revolution IPCC, 2007!
7 The unnoticed revolution 1.5 km resolution simulation of Typhoon Megi!! Courtesy of UK MetOffice!
8 Opportunities The seamless approach! Observations! Computing! Courtesy J Hack (ORNL)! Courtesy NASA! New numerics! New physics! Hurrell et al, BAMS 2009! A community! Courtesy DWD! Jakob et al., ECMWF, 2011! Courtesy WMO!
9 Challenges - The expectations Predict weather not just flow! Extend the range of useful predictions! Support adaptation and mitigation decisions! Hurrell et al, BAMS 2009! Courtesy of WMO!
10
11 Challenges - Model performance Mean rainfall distribution! Rainfall frequency! Zhang et al., JGR 2007! Stephens et al., JGR 2010!
12 Challenges - Model performance IPCC, 2007!
13 Challenges - Model performance Tropical variability! Lin et al., JGR 2006!
14 Challenges - Parametrized processes Source: DOE ARM program!
15 Acknowledge people! A survey on key model issues > 130 responses, some by individuals, many by groups, most major centres are represented!
16 Model complexity
17 Model complexity The Seventies and Eighties! Land! Atmosphere!
18 Model complexity The Eighties and Nineties! Aerosols! Ocean and Sea Ice! Land! Atmosphere!
19 Model complexity Today! Services! Chemistry! Carbon! Aerosols! Ocean and Sea Ice! Land! Solution 1!! Strengthen the foundations of the existing house.! Atmosphere!
20 ?!
21 ?! Physical Model developer! Tasmanian Devil!
22 An endangered species is a population of organisms which is at risk of becoming extinct because it is either few in numbers, or threatened by changing environmental or predation parameters. - Wikipedia!?! Physical Model developer! Tasmanian Devil! Endangered Species!
23 An endangered species program Improve the habitat! Breed the species! Modelling Centres! Academia! Open the models to the community! More internal collaboration! Reward system! Stronger formal links! Joint PhD to guaranteed Postdoc positions! Strategic partnerships with funding programmes! Special scholarships! Model development chairs! Reward system!!
24 Model complexity Today! Services! Chemistry! Carbon! Aerosols! Ocean and Sea Ice! Land! Atmosphere! Solution 2!! Build a new, more modern house, with foundations of the required strength.!
25 A Manhattan project Improved models are key to achieving the skill of predictions society is asking of us.! This calls for a Manhattan-style project on developing the best model we can today.! The main purposes of such a project would be to advance the science of modelling and to demonstrate the effect on key predictions.! Must build a new model using modern ideas (e.g., stochastic approaches, high-efficiency and high-resolution dynamical cores,...).!
26 A Manhattan project Improved Models for better predictions! Improve physics! Estimate uncertainties! Reduce physics influence! Identify and improve key processes! Stochastic physics! Ensembles! Increased resolution! A Manhattan project for model development!
27 A Manhattan project Model development should not be undertaken in isolation from prediction! Option 1: Link the project with a few existing modelling centres! Option 2: A new centre, say for seasonal to decadal prediction! Could be centralised or distributed!
28 Model development is a community effort Jakob, BAMS 2010! Model Application NWP; seasonal; climate Overall assessment Tuning (important but limited insight) Design model improvements Great insight but of potentially limited importance Find processes and phenomena of relevance Perform process studies (model + observations) Select suitable process studies Data community Model user/ evaluation community Model development community
29 Summary Weather and climate models underpin some of mankind s greatest endeavours. They save lifes. They save property. They affect all aspects of society.! Improvements in forecasts and projections have been underpinned by improvements in models - Future improvements require renewed and increased investment in basic model development.! Models have become increasingly complex, but some key issues have not been resolved. We need both an endangered species program for model developers and our own Manhattan -style project to successfully implement the seamless prediction paradigm.! The time is right!!
30 Opportunities The seamless approach! Observations! Computing! Courtesy J Hack (ORNL)! Courtesy NASA! New numerics! New insights! Hurrell et al, BAMS 2009! A community! Courtesy DWD! Jakob et al., ECMWF, 2011! Courtesy WMO!
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