BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
|
|
- Ashlyn Daniels
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY Building an Operational National Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting Service for Australia progress to-date and future plans Dr Narendra Kumar Tuteja Manager Extended Hydrological Prediction 15 October 2014
2 Built on extensive research partnerships Bureau of Meteorology Water Information Program Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) CSIRO Water Information Research and Development Alliance (WIRADA) University sector ewater WIRADA
3 Australia has a variable climate Year Major drought conditions Federation drought Widespread drought; Australian wheat crop failed Severe drought across all states WWII drought affects SE & SW Most of Australia affected A short severe drought Millennium drought 2013-present Parts of NSW and Queensland Rainfall deficiency during 1902 drought EIGHT DROUGHT EVENTS OF SHORT AND EXTREME TO PROLONGED CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST 100 YEARS
4 Water information program ( Legislative backing Water Act year program began in July 2007 Services: o Water data, accounts & assessments o Water forecasts
5 Water availability forecasts Perspective Situational awareness Foresight PAST PRESENT FUTURE DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES Long-term Seasonal Flood & short-term
6 Water planning and annual allocation considerations Extreme dry years Extended sequence of dry years Water allocation rationale In storage Water already consumed Min flow for rest of the year Worst case losses for rest of the year In , water supplies across many areas could not be guaranteed
7 Seasonal streamflow forecasting service Forecasts of streamflow volumes at a site or total inflows to a water storage 3-months ahead, updated every month, since locations in 32 river basins Statistical approach using Bayesian Joint Probability model (5000 ensembles) Publicly available at
8 A range of data and forecast products Exceedance probabilities Tercile forecasts Probability distributions Tercile maps Box plots
9 Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting Approach POAMA Global Climate Model Rainfall, Streamflow Data Atmosphere, Sea Surface Monitoring Data Registered User Release: Nov 14 (Dynamic) Rainfall Downscaling Publicly available (Statistical) Dynamic Models Statistical Models Merging Probabilistic Forecast of Streamflow Monthly and 3 Monthly Registered User Release: July 15 (Merged)
10 The Bayesian joint probability (BJP) model Wang, Robertson and Chiew (2009) Water Resources Research Wang and Robertson (2011) Water Resources Research Robertson and Wang (2012) Journal of Hydrometeorology Robertson, Pokhrel and Wang (2013) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Robertson and Wang (2013) Water Resources Management Pokhrel, Wang and Robertson (2013) Water Resources research Bennett, Wang, Pokhrel and Robertson (2014) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
11 Dynamic Approach: Rainfall Downscaling POAMA forecast of climate indices (~270km) Analogue downscaling (5 replicates of 31 ensembles) Downscaled rainfall (5km; 155 ensembles) Timbal, B., Li, Z., & Fernandez, E. (2008). The Bureau of meteorology statistical downscaling model graphical user interface: user manual and software documentation. Shao, Q., & Li, M. (2013). An improved statistical analogue downscaling procedure for seasonal precipitation forecast. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk
12 Dynamic Approach: hydrologic modelling Post-processed catchment rainfall forecasts Hydrologic uncertainty (BATEA) (40 replicates of GR4J model) Post-processed streamflow (6200 ensembles) Mean wet day rainfall 1 month & 3 month forecasts Timbal, B., Li, Z., & Fernandez, E. (2008). The Bureau of meteorology statistical downscaling model graphical user interface: user manual and software documentation. Shao, Q., & Li, M. (2013). An improved statistical analogue downscaling procedure for seasonal precipitation forecast. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk
13 Forecast verification and communication of forecast uncertainty is important
14 Rigorous cross-validation scheme
15 Forecast reliability Probability Integral Transform (PIT) Plots FORECAST RELIABILITY IS IMPORTANT FOR END USER CONFIDENCE
16 Forecast accuracy Skill score: CRPS, RMSE & RMSEP Hit rate: Tercile hit rate for low & high flows Precision: Inter quantile range (10%,90%) FORECAST RELIABILITY IS IMPORTANT FOR END USER CONFIDENCE
17 Aggregated forecast performance (cross-validation)
18 Modelling system (WAFARi) Statistical, dynamic, and merging in a modelling system Model Kernels BJP (statistical) User Interface Tools Automated Workflows Modular structure WAPABA Data I/O Forecast Verification Calibrate Interactive simulation Powerful scripting capability Self-descriptive file formats Rainfall- Runoff Models BATEA (predictive uncertainty) QMA Merging Rainfall Downscale Catchment Forecast Posterior Error Processing Forecast Report Forecast Merging Forecast Cross- Validate Tailored graphic tools Parallel computing for cross-validation Downscaled Rainfall Forecasts WISKI/AWRIS, AIFS, Direct report I/O EHP System Libraries FCVF Verification Stats Graphic ARMA
19 Communication and adoption Over 1600 subscribers Online survey conducted in Nov % of the key stakeholders expressed satisfaction with the SSF service Development of case studies with water managers Monthly National Climate and Water Briefings Forecasts included in monthly outlook video
20 Concluding remarks The millennium drought ( ) and significant floods in the last 5 years have shaped the water reform agenda in Australia The need for water availability forecasts at a range of time scales was established through an extensive user needs analysis Engaging with stakeholders meaningfully, establishing R&D alliances and transitioning research to operations is not trivial Making the right technology choices is critical for development and delivery of operational forecasting services; QA/QC tasks are very demanding Communication of forecast uncertainty and performance is indeed difficult Influencing decision making by water resource managers requires ongoing engagement throughout all stages planning, development and delivery
21 Thank you Narendra Kumar Tuteja Manager Extended Hydrological Prediction
Seamless water forecasting for Australia
Seamless water forecasting for Australia Narendra Tuteja, Dasarath Jayasuriya and Jeff Perkins 2 December 2015 Built on extensive research partnerships WIRADA What we do Perspective Situational awareness
More informationAt the start of the talk will be a trivia question. Be prepared to write your answer.
Operational hydrometeorological forecasting activities of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Thomas Pagano At the start of the talk will be a trivia question. Be prepared to write your answer. http://scottbridle.com/
More informationSeven Day Streamflow Forecasting
Seven Day Streamflow Forecasting - An ensemble streamflow forecasting system for Australia Dr. Sophie Zhang Water Forecasting Service Bureau of Meteorology 02 May 2018, Delft-FEWS Users Days and Workshop
More informationThe Victorian Climate Initiative: VicCI
The Victorian Climate Initiative: VicCI Bertrand Timbal M. Ekstrom (CLW), H. Hendon (BoM) + VicCI scientists S. Fiddes (Melb. Uni.), M. Griffiths (BoM) Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
More information(Towards) using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extendedrange flood prediction in Australia
(Towards) using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extendedrange flood prediction in Australia Christopher J. White 1, Stewart W. Franks 1 and Darryn McEvoy 2 1 School of Engineering
More informationThe South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative
The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative Phase 2 of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) is a three-year (2009 2012), $9 million research program investigating the causes and
More informationReliability of Daily and Annual Stochastic Rainfall Data Generated from Different Data Lengths and Data Characteristics
Reliability of Daily and Annual Stochastic Rainfall Data Generated from Different Data Lengths and Data Characteristics 1 Chiew, F.H.S., 2 R. Srikanthan, 2 A.J. Frost and 1 E.G.I. Payne 1 Department of
More informationNATIONAL WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 24 th Hydrology Conference 9.2 James Noel Service Coordination Hydrologist National Weather Service-Ohio River Forecast Center
More informationClimate Science, Projections and BoM Capability
Climate Science, Projections and BoM Capability Climate Information Program: David Jones (Manager of Climate Monitoring and Prediction) & Leading in Climate Data, Monitoring, Prediction and Advice Perry
More informationPerformance evaluation of the national 7-day water forecast service
22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia, 3 to 8 December 2017 mssanz.org.au/modsim2017 Performance evaluation of the national 7-day water forecast service H.A.P.
More informationMonthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts using rainfall-runoff modeling and POAMA predictions
19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, 12 16 December 2011 http://mssanz.org.au/modsim2011 Monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts using rainfall-runoff modeling and
More informationAN OVERVIEW OF ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION STUDIES IN KOREA
AN OVERVIEW OF ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION STUDIES IN KOREA DAE-IL JEONG, YOUNG-OH KIM School of Civil, Urban & Geosystems Engineering, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Sillim-dong, Gwanak-gu, Seoul,
More informationClimate Risk Management and Tailored Climate Forecasts
Climate Risk Management and Tailored Climate Forecasts Andrew W. Robertson Michael K. Tippett International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) New York, USA SASCOF-1, April 13-15, 2010 outline
More informationFolsom Dam Water Control Manual Update
Folsom Dam Water Control Manual Update Public Workshop April 3, 2014 Location: Sterling Hotel Ballroom 1300 H Street, Sacramento US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG WELCOME & INTRODUCTIONS 2 BUILDING
More informationP1.8 INTEGRATING ASSESSMENTS OF USER NEEDS WITH WEATHER RESEARCH: DEVELOPING USER-CENTRIC TOOLS FOR RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
P1.8 INTEGRATING ASSESSMENTS OF USER NEEDS WITH WEATHER RESEARCH: DEVELOPING USER-CENTRIC TOOLS FOR RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT Andrea J. Ray 1, Joseph J. Barsugli 1,2, and Thomas Hamill 1 1 NOAA Earth Systems
More informationAdaptation for global application of calibration and downscaling methods of medium range ensemble weather forecasts
Adaptation for global application of calibration and downscaling methods of medium range ensemble weather forecasts Nathalie Voisin Hydrology Group Seminar UW 11/18/2009 Objective Develop a medium range
More informationImproving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction at NOAA
Improving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction at NOAA Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Weather Service NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services July 13, 2016 Congressional Briefing Value
More informationOperational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting. Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NWS / California-Nevada River Forecast Center
Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NWS / California-Nevada River Forecast Center Mission of NWS Hydrologic Services Program Provide river and flood forecasts
More informationSub-seasonal variability & prediction:
Sub-seasonal variability & prediction: Exploring the reliability of forecasts at the weather-climate interface Harvey Stern, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne 1 Conclusion The absence of
More informationEnhancing Weather Information with Probability Forecasts. An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society
Enhancing Weather Information with Probability Forecasts An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society (Adopted by AMS Council on 12 May 2008) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89 Summary This
More informationNational level products generation including calibration aspects
National level products generation including calibration aspects Dr. Cedric J. VAN MEERBEECK, Climatologist (cmeerbeeck@cimh.edu.bb), Adrian R. Trotman, Chief of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (atrotman@cimh.edu.bb),
More informationReclamation Perspective on Operational Snow Data and Needs. Snowpack Monitoring for Streamflow Forecasting and Drought Planning August 11, 2015
Reclamation Perspective on Operational Snow Data and Needs Snowpack Monitoring for Streamflow Forecasting and Drought Planning August 11, 2015 2 Reclamation Operational Modeling 3 Colorado Basin-wide Models
More informationSeasonal Hydrological Forecasting in the Berg Water Management Area of South Africa
Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting in the Berg Water Management Area of South Africa Trevor LUMSDEN and Roland SCHULZE University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa OUTLINE Introduction Objectives Study Area
More informationRegional climate-change downscaling for hydrological applications using a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model
Regional climate-change downscaling for hydrological applications using a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model Water for a Healthy Country Flagship Steve Charles IRI Seminar, September 3, 21 Talk outline
More informationFrom Climate Science to Climate Services
Making sense of complexity in an interdependent world: February 2013 From Climate Science to Climate Services Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief Scientist Climate Change: Taking the planet into uncharted territory?
More informationJ11.5 HYDROLOGIC APPLICATIONS OF SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS IN THE NWS ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS)
J11.5 HYDROLOGIC APPLICATIONS OF SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS IN THE NWS ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) Mary Mullusky*, Julie Demargne, Edwin Welles, Limin Wu and John Schaake
More informationA Seasonal Water Availability Prediction Service: Opportunities and Challenges
A Seasonal Water Availability Prediction Service: Opportunities and Challenges Plummer, N. 1, Tuteja, N. 1, Wang, Q.J. 2, Wang, E. 2, Robertson, D. 2, Zhou, S. 1, Schepen, A. 1, Alves, O. 3, Timbal, B.
More informationOn the use of radar rainfall estimates and nowcasts in an operational heavy rainfall warning service
On the use of radar rainfall estimates and nowcasts in an operational heavy rainfall warning service Alan Seed, Ross Bunn, Aurora Bell Bureau of Meteorology Australia The Centre for Australian Weather
More informationUse of extended range and seasonal forecasts at MeteoSwiss
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Use of extended range and seasonal forecasts at MeteoSwiss Current use and ongoing developments Christoph
More informationStandardized Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts. Simon Mason
Standardized Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts Simon Mason simon@iri.columbia.edu MedCOF 2015 Training Workshop Madrid, Spain, 26 30 October 2015 SVS for LRF: Goal Provide verification information
More informationBackground and History
p1 Background and History What is the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative? The Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI) is a strategic program of research and information transfer to support government decision-making.
More informationUtilization of seasonal climate predictions for application fields Yonghee Shin/APEC Climate Center Busan, South Korea
The 20 th AIM International Workshop January 23-24, 2015 NIES, Japan Utilization of seasonal climate predictions for application fields Yonghee Shin/APEC Climate Center Busan, South Korea Background Natural
More informationHydrological forecasting and decision making in Australia
Hydrological forecasting and decision making in Australia Justin Robinson, Jeff Perkins and Bruce Quig Bureau of Meteorology, Australia The Bureau's Hydrological Forecasting Services Seasonal Forecasts
More informationCreating a WeatherSMART nation: SAWS drought related research, services and products
Creating a WeatherSMART nation: SAWS drought related research, services and products Drought Dialogue 23-24 June 2016 Western Cape Government Hannes Rautenbach South African Weather Service SAWS mandate
More informationOperational Perspectives on Hydrologic Model Data Assimilation
Operational Perspectives on Hydrologic Model Data Assimilation Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NOAA / National Weather Service California-Nevada River Forecast Center Sacramento, CA USA Outline Operational
More informationRegional climate projections for NSW
Regional climate projections for NSW Dr Jason Evans Jason.evans@unsw.edu.au Climate Change Projections Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the primary tools to project future climate change CSIROs Climate
More informationWSWC/NOAA Workshops on S2S Precipitation Forecasting
WSWC/NOAA Workshops on S2S Precipitation Forecasting San Diego, May 2015 Salt Lake City at NWS Western Region HQ, October 2015 Las Vegas at Colorado River Water Users Association, December 2015 College
More informationClimate Services in Practice UK Perspective
Climate Services in Practice UK Perspective Chris Hewitt ICCS, Columbia University, October 2011 Overview Perspectives on: Why have a climate service? What is a climate service? UK activities Examples
More informationUnregulated Diversions Water Outlook for Melbourne Water Licence Holders
Unregulated Diversions Water Outlook for Melbourne Water Licence Holders November 2017 Melbourne Water is owned by the Victorian Government. We manage Melbourne s water supply catchments, remove and treat
More informationThe Water and the Land (WATL) project; balancing farmer needs, atmospheric science, and information delivery.
The Water and the Land (WATL) project; balancing farmer needs, atmospheric science, and information delivery. Andrew Watkins National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology (Member: WMO CAgM ET on the Impact
More informationA New Probabilistic Rational Method for design flood estimation in ungauged catchments for the State of New South Wales in Australia
21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation Gold Coast Australia 29 Nov to 4 Dec 215 www.mssanz.org.au/modsim215 A New Probabilistic Rational Method for design flood estimation in ungauged
More informationMULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGY OF A SOUTH INDIAN RIVER BASIN
MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGY OF A SOUTH INDIAN RIVER BASIN P.S. Smitha, B. Narasimhan, K.P. Sudheer Indian Institute of Technology, Madras 2017 International
More informationSanjeev Kumar Jha Assistant Professor Earth and Environmental Sciences Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal
Sanjeev Kumar Jha Assistant Professor Earth and Environmental Sciences Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal Email: sanjeevj@iiserb.ac.in 1 Outline 1. Motivation FloodNet Project in
More informationAssessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia
Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia James C. Bennett 1,2, Quan J. Wang 3, David E. Robertson 1, Andrew Schepen 4, Ming Li, Kelvin Michael 2 1 CSIRO Land & Water,
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019
Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Date issued: Aug 31, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and is still expected to rise towards an
More informationP1.8 INTEGRATING ASSESSMENTS OF USER NEEDS WITH WEATHER RESEARCH: DEVELOPING USER-CENTRIC TOOLS FOR RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
P1.8 INTEGRATING ASSESSMENTS OF USER NEEDS WITH WEATHER RESEARCH: DEVELOPING USER-CENTRIC TOOLS FOR RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT Andrea J. Ray 1, Joseph J. Barsugli 1,2, and Thomas Hamill 1 1 NOAA Earth Systems
More informationRegional Climate Model (RCM) data evaluation and post-processing for hydrological applications
Regional Climate Model (RCM) data evaluation and post-processing for hydrological applications Jonas Olsson Research & Development (hydrology) Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Hydrological
More informationMonthly probabilistic drought forecasting using the ECMWF Ensemble system
Monthly probabilistic drought forecasting using the ECMWF Ensemble system Christophe Lavaysse(1) J. Vogt(1), F. Pappenberger(2) and P. Barbosa(1) (1) European Commission (JRC-IES), Ispra Italy (2) ECMWF,
More informationActivities of NOAA s NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Activities of NOAA s NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Jon Gottschalck and Dave DeWitt Improving Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting for Drought Preparedness May 27-29, 2015 San Diego,
More informationGlobal Challenges - Partnering with Service Providers. World Meteorological Organization. J. Lengoasa WMO Deputy Secretary-General
WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Global Challenges - Partnering with Service Providers J. Lengoasa WMO Deputy Secretary-General jlengoasa@wmo.int http://www.wmo.int/pages/gfcs/gfcs_en.html
More informationPost-processing rainfall forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model in Australia
WATER FOR A HEALTHY COUNTRY FLAGSHIP Post-processing rainfall forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model in Australia Durga Lal Shrestha, David Robertson, James C. Bennett, QJ Wang November 23
More informationStochastic Hydrology. a) Data Mining for Evolution of Association Rules for Droughts and Floods in India using Climate Inputs
Stochastic Hydrology a) Data Mining for Evolution of Association Rules for Droughts and Floods in India using Climate Inputs An accurate prediction of extreme rainfall events can significantly aid in policy
More informationFlood Forecasting Tools for Ungauged Streams in Alberta: Status and Lessons from the Flood of 2013
Flood Forecasting Tools for Ungauged Streams in Alberta: Status and Lessons from the Flood of 2013 John Pomeroy, Xing Fang, Kevin Shook, Tom Brown Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon
More informationRobert Shedd Northeast River Forecast Center National Weather Service Taunton, Massachusetts, USA
Robert Shedd Northeast River Forecast Center National Weather Service Taunton, Massachusetts, USA Outline River Forecast Centers FEWS Implementation Status Forcing Data Ensemble Forecasting The Northeast
More informationArkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Operations. RRVA Conference Durant, OK 8/22/2013 Jeff McMurphy Sr. Hydrologist - ABRFC
Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Operations RRVA Conference Durant, OK 8/22/2013 Jeff McMurphy Sr. Hydrologist - ABRFC NWS River Forecast Centers NWS Weather Forecast Offices Operations Staffing
More informationDrought forecasting methods Blaz Kurnik DESERT Action JRC
Ljubljana on 24 September 2009 1 st DMCSEE JRC Workshop on Drought Monitoring 1 Drought forecasting methods Blaz Kurnik DESERT Action JRC Motivations for drought forecasting Ljubljana on 24 September 2009
More informationSEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION
SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION David Walland Australian Bureau of Meteorology WMO RA-V Seminar on Climate Services Honiara, Solomon Islands, 1-4 November 2011 Overview Major climate Drivers in the region
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Date issued: May 28, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now moved into the neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño
More informationSummary of SARP Kickoff Workshop 10/1/ /2/2012
Summary of SARP Kickoff Workshop 10/1/2012-10/2/2012 On October 1 st a kickoff meeting for the Integrating Climate Forecasts and Reforecasts into Decision Making SARP project was held in Salt Lake City
More informationFLORA: FLood estimation and forecast in complex Orographic areas for Risk mitigation in the Alpine space
Natural Risk Management in a changing climate: Experiences in Adaptation Strategies from some European Projekts Milano - December 14 th, 2011 FLORA: FLood estimation and forecast in complex Orographic
More informationExpansion of Climate Prediction Center Products
Expansion of Climate Prediction Center Products Wanqiu Wang (CPC) Stephen Baxter (CPC) Rick Thoman (NWS) VAWS webinar, January 17, 2017 CPC Sea Ice Predictions Wanqiu Wang Thomas Collow Yanyun Liu Arun
More informationGlobal Flood Awareness System GloFAS
Global Flood Awareness System GloFAS Ervin Zsoter with the help of the whole EFAS/GloFAS team Ervin.Zsoter@ecmwf.int 1 Reading, 8-9 May 2018 What is GloFAS? Global-scale ensemble-based flood forecasting
More informationRainfall-River Forecasting: Overview of NOAA s Role, Responsibilities, and Services
Dr. Thomas Graziano Chief Hydrologic Services Division NWS Headquarters Steve Buan Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS North Central River Forecast Center Rainfall-River Forecasting: Overview of NOAA
More informationFire Weather Drivers, Seasonal Outlook and Climate Change. Steven McGibbony, Severe Weather Manager Victoria Region Friday 9 October 2015
Fire Weather Drivers, Seasonal Outlook and Climate Change Steven McGibbony, Severe Weather Manager Victoria Region Friday 9 October 2015 Outline Weather and Fire Risk Environmental conditions leading to
More informationThe Latest Science of Seasonal Climate Forecasting
The Latest Science of Seasonal Climate Forecasting Emily Wallace Met Office 7 th June 2018 Research and Innovation Program under Grant 776868. Agreement Background: - Why are they useful? - What do we
More informationIN FOCUS: WHEAT PRODUCTION OUTLOOK JULY 2017
IN FOCUS: WHEAT PRODUCTION OUTLOOK JULY 217 Author Phin Ziebell, Agribusiness Economist Photo Carl Davies CSIRO Sunset at Euroa, Victoria Photo Mai Thai CONTENTS 3 Summary and forecasts 4 Planting conditions
More informationDavid G. DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NOAA/NWS
CPC Current Capabilities and Metrics (Part I) and Key Science Challenges to Improving S2S Forecast Skill (Part II) David G. DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NOAA/NWS 1 Outline Disclaimer
More informationApplication and verification of ECMWF products 2017
Application and verification of ECMWF products 2017 Finnish Meteorological Institute compiled by Weather and Safety Centre with help of several experts 1. Summary of major highlights FMI s forecasts are
More informationSeasonal Predictions for South Caucasus and Armenia
Seasonal Predictions for South Caucasus and Armenia Anahit Hovsepyan Zagreb, 11-12 June 2008 SEASONAL PREDICTIONS for the South Caucasus There is a notable increase of interest of population and governing
More informationBarnabas Chipindu, Department of Physics, University of Zimbabwe
DEFICIENCIES IN THE OPERATIONAL APPLICATIONS OF LONG - RANGE WEATHER PREDICTIONS FOR AGRICULTURE - RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVING THE TECHNOLOGY FOR THE BENEFIT OF AGRICULTURE AT THE NATIONAL AND REGIONAL
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management
Missouri River Basin Water Management US Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Navigator s Meeting February 12, 2014 Bill Doan, P.E. Missouri River Basin Water Management US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING
More informationA new method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from GCMs and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments
A new method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from GCMs and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments Andrew Schepen 1, Tongtiegang Zhao 2, Quan. J. Wang 3 and David
More informationBehind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 2012 Outline Mission Extended Range Outlooks (6-10/8-14)
More informationPreliminary Viability Assessment (PVA) for Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO)
Preliminary Viability Assessment (PVA) for Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) Rob Hartman Consultant to SCWA and CW3E May 30, 2017 Why Conduct a PVA? Key Questions for the PVA
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Autumn sea ice near Alaska Climate Forecast Basics Climate
More informationUSA National Weather Service Community Hydrologic Prediction System
USA National Weather Service Community Hydrologic Prediction System Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NOAA / National Weather Service California-Nevada River Forecast Center Sacramento, CA Background Outline
More informationSelection of Best Fit Probability Distribution for Flood Frequency Analysis in South West Western Australia
Abstract Selection of Best Fit Probability Distribution for Flood Frequency Analysis in South West Western Australia Benjamin P 1 and Ataur Rahman 2 1 Student, Western Sydney University, NSW, Australia
More informationWater information system advances American River basin. Roger Bales, Martha Conklin, Steve Glaser, Bob Rice & collaborators UC: SNRI & CITRIS
Water information system advances American River basin Roger Bales, Martha Conklin, Steve Glaser, Bob Rice & collaborators UC: SNRI & CITRIS Opportunities Unprecedented level of information from low-cost
More informationApplication of Radar QPE. Jack McKee December 3, 2014
Application of Radar QPE Jack McKee December 3, 2014 Topics Context Precipitation Estimation Techniques Study Methodology Preliminary Results Future Work Questions Introduction Accurate precipitation data
More informationWeather Climate Science to Service Partnership South Africa
PROJECTS UNDERWAY Title of the Weather Climate Science to Service Partnership South Africa Together, building on an existing strong partnership, South African Weather Service and the Met Office will build
More informationAurora Bell*, Alan Seed, Ross Bunn, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
15B.1 RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND NOWCASTS: THE CHALLENGING ROAD FROM RESEARCH TO WARNINGS Aurora Bell*, Alan Seed, Ross Bunn, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia 1. Introduction Warnings are
More informationA partnership with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center: An experiment in Technology Transfer
A partnership with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center: An experiment in Technology Transfer Martyn P. Clark and Subhrendu Gangopadhyay Center for Science and Technology Policy Research David Brandon,
More informationNWS SERFC Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment. Monday, March 9 th, 2015 NOAA, National Weather Service Southeast River Forecast Center
NWS SERFC Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment Monday, March 9 th, 2015 NOAA, National Weather Service Southeast River Forecast Center Current Weather Map Today s weather map shows a blossoming system in
More informationDeveloping Operational MME Forecasts for Subseasonal Timescales
Developing Operational MME Forecasts for Subseasonal Timescales Dan C. Collins NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Acknowledgements: Stephen Baxter and Augustin Vintzileos (CPC and UMD) 1 Outline I. Operational
More informationDrought Monitoring in Mainland Portugal
Drought Monitoring in Mainland Portugal 1. Accumulated precipitation since 1st October 2014 (Hydrological Year) The accumulated precipitation amount since 1 October 2014 until the end of April 2015 (Figure
More informationOperational use of ensemble hydrometeorological forecasts at EDF (french producer of energy)
Operational use of ensemble hydrometeorological forecasts at EDF (french producer of energy) M. Le Lay, P. Bernard, J. Gailhard, R. Garçon, T. Mathevet & EDF forecasters matthieu.le-lay@edf.fr SBRH Conference
More informationEnsemble Verification Metrics
Ensemble Verification Metrics Debbie Hudson (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) ECMWF Annual Seminar 207 Acknowledgements: Beth Ebert Overview. Introduction 2. Attributes of forecast quality 3. Metrics:
More informationWMO Climate Watch System
WMO Climate Watch System Purpose and Requirements Peer Hechler, Omar Baddour, Karolin Eichler (WMO/OBS/WIS/DMA) Content Introduction CWS in general CWS components CWS requirements Examples Summary Climate
More informationGlobal Flash Flood Guidance System Status and Outlook
Global Flash Flood Guidance System Status and Outlook HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER San Diego, CA 92130 http://www.hrcwater.org Initial Planning Meeting on the WMO HydroSOS, Entebbe, Uganda 26-28 September
More information[NEACOF] Status Report (Survey)
[NEACOF] Status Report (Survey) Annotated Outline Specific Climate features of concerned region In North Eurasian region, wintertime temperature is mainly a result from interplay of advection of the warm
More informationImpacts of Climate Change on Surface Water in the Onkaparinga Catchment
Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Water in the Onkaparinga Catchment Final Report Volume 2: Hydrological Evaluation of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 GCMs and the Non-homogenous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) Westra,
More informationNOAA S2S Planning. Dave DeWitt Fred Toepfer
NOAA S2S Planning Dave DeWitt Fred Toepfer 1 Agenda 1. Brief synopsis of The Weather Research and Forecasting Act of 2017 2. Report to Congress a. Timeline b. Process c. Document Outline 3. Some Preliminary
More informationHydrologic Ensemble Prediction: Challenges and Opportunities
Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction: Challenges and Opportunities John Schaake (with lots of help from others including: Roberto Buizza, Martyn Clark, Peter Krahe, Tom Hamill, Robert Hartman, Chuck Howard,
More informationSeasonal soil moisture forecasting using the AWRA landscape water balance model
22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia, 3 to 8 December 2017 mssanz.org.au/modsim2017 Seasonal soil moisture forecasting using the AWRA landscape water balance
More informationOn downscaling methodologies for seasonal forecast applications
On downscaling methodologies for seasonal forecast applications V. Moron,* A. W. Robertson * J.H. Qian * CEREGE, Université Aix-Marseille, France * IRI, Columbia University, USA WCRP Workshop on Seasonal
More informationClimate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015 BUSAN, 23 April 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for May - October 2015 (MJJASO) at the APEC Climate Center
More informationImproving Drought Forecasts: The Next Generation of Seasonal Outlooks
Improving Drought Forecasts: The Next Generation of Seasonal Outlooks Douglas Le Comte, CPC Douglas.lecomte@noaa.gov Outline Review of how the current Drought Outlooks are made Sample experimental products
More informationMid-term Operations Probabilistic Model of the Colorado River Basin
Mid-term Operations Probabilistic Model of the Colorado River Basin Tony Powell Precision Water Resources Engineering Daniel Bunk Reclamation, Lower Colorado Region RiverWare User Group Meeting NCAR/UCAR
More information2016 HEPEX Workshop Université Laval, Quebec, Canada
2016 HEPEX Workshop Université Laval, Quebec, Canada Evaluating the Usefulness of the US NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) in the Middle Atlantic Region for Flood and Drought Applications
More information