Crop monitoring in Europe

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1 MARS Bulletin, Vol. 21, No. 1 (2013) *** * * *** European Commission Crop monitoring in Europe MARS Bulletin Vol. 21 No. 1 (2013) EU27: Well-advanced hardening and no frost kill so far WINTER CEREALS Hardening index as,of 28 Jan For the most part, above-average temperatures were recorded in western Europe, while eastern regions were colder than usual. Precipitation was abundant in western Europe but rather scarce in the Iberian Peninsula, Maghreb and Sicily. The hardening of the winter crops is well advanced. Based on our simulations, no frost kill damage is expected between now and the end of January. Content: 1. Agro-meteorological overview 2. Atlas maps The Bulletin co vers the period from 11 Dec until 28 Jan 1

2 1. Agro-meteorological overview Weather conditions were variable during the considered period all over Europe. Mostly above-average temperatures were recorded in western Europe, while the eastern regions were colder than usual. Active temperatures (Tbase>0 C) exceeded the average in the British Isles, western countries of Europe and some areas of the western Mediterranean. The surplus reached growing degree days in Fronce, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and smaller spots of Spain, the Czech Republic, Italy and Slovenia. Precipitation was abundant in western Europe, at the coastline of the eastern basin of the Mediterranean Sea and the southern Black Sea region. Snow partially covered Europe from Germany to Russia and provided protection for the winter crops against severe frosts. The hardening of the winter crops is in accordance with the seasonal norm. Based on our simulations, no frost kill damages are expected between now and the end of January. Observed temperatures Since 11 December, weather conditions were colder than usual in eastern Europe. On the contrary, western Europe experienced higher temperatures than the long-term average (L TA}. The positive thermal anomaly was especially evident in France, Germany, the Benelux countries and the Czech Republic, where the delay in crop development due to late sowing or unfavourable autumn weather was diminished. The mild weather slowed down the hardening process of winter cereals in this region, maintaining crop vulnerability. The second dekad of December began with a cold snap across Europe, but from mid-december onwards perceptible warming started from the direction of the Atlantic Ocean and temperatures fluctuated above the average in the western part of the continent. On occasion, the daily maximum almost reached record temperatures. While western Europe experienced mild conditions, the European part of Russia was subject to very cold weather, but conditions in this area also became milder towards the end of December. January started with anomalous high temperatures over Europe. The temperatures generally exceeded the LTA by 2-8 C with the exception of the Iberian Peninsula, the Black Sea Region and the easternmost parts of Russia. An inflow of cold arctic air started from 7 January, significantly decreasing temperatures initially in the eastern and later in the western parts of Europe. In general, frost events remained in the moderate range (>- l0 C) in the lowlands of the UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Greece. However, in the eastern countries of EU-27, Ukraine, Belarus and Turkey the temperatures fell to between -10 and -20 C, and temperatures of less than -20 C were recorded in the very eastern and northern parts of Europe. Only the south-western region of I re land, the shore of the Iberian Peninsula, and some coastal area of Italy and Greece, the southern Islands of the Mediterranean Sea and North-Africa remained frost free. 2

3 TEMPERATURE SUM Base tempera ture: 0 AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE Averaged values Oev1aHon Unit: degree days (Celsius) >=150 unrt: d@qfl!l!s Cl!IS1uS >=100-<150 < -8 (cooler in YOI) >= 80- < (cooler in YO!) >=50 - < (cooler m YOI ) >= 20-< {cooler m YOI ) >= < < -0.5 (cooler in YOI: >=-SO - < -20 no difference >=-80 - < -50 >0_5-2 (warmer m YOI) >=-100-< (warmer in YOI) >= <,-1 00 < (warmer in YOI) 6-8 {waml8; In 'Y,01) 17/ (c)e..r.,.,...,~ 201!. -..ce.--c-- --i, AL.TERRA-- 17/01!2013 resolutl0f'l:25x25km MINIMUM DAILY TEMPERATURE Lowest values NUMBER OF COLD DAYS to : 10 January 2013 Devi a hon: Mm1mum temperature ( C) <= O Unit: degrees Celsius <= 35 >-35- <= -30 > 30 <= 25 >-25-<= 20 Unit: days > -20- <=-10 <= -5 > <= > -5 - <=0 1 1 > 0 <= 5 >5-<= 10, >10 - <=15... / >10 17/ (c)a..-ur-. 20U. -..ce.-_,,c_ - - i, AL.ttMIA--. 16/01!2013 resolutl0f'l:25x25km (c)~ur-2!012, _..._..c-. f'l-keuol"'l' AllatAA.~ Observed rainfall and snow cover Precipitation was abundant and exceeded 100 mm in the Atlantic region including the British Isles, France, Germany, Denmark, southern Noiway, the north-western Iberian Peninsula and the Alpine region. The extremely wet weather conditions experienced since the end of September presumably caused problems during sowing and early crop development in England. Precipitation was also abundant in the eastern Adriatic, the areas surrounding the Aegean Sea, Turkey, along the eastern coastline of the Mediterranean Ocean and in the Caucasus. On the contrary, precipitation was scarce in Spain, central Italy, Sicily, the western half of Romania, the Maghreb countries and extended territories of Russia, where precipitation was less than half of the LT A. The dry weather led to favourable sowing conditions in Spain, but significant precipitation is needed in the near future to replenish the soil moisture storage for the next crop cycle. In mid-december, snow covered Scandinavia and an extended area between eastern France and the Ural Mountains, including most of the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Due to the mild weather of December and early January the snow cover melted and disappeared from lowlands of western and central Europe. After 5 January snow cover was gradually re-established from eastern border of the EU to eastern half of France. Winter crops are fully or almost fully hardened in the northern agricultural zones of Europe as well as in the region from Poland to Romania and further eastwards including Belarus, Ukraine and Russia with the exception of smaller regions close to the Black Sea. Given the medium-range weather forecast until 28 January, the frost tolerance of winter crops is expected to increase significantly in Germany and on the Balkan Peninsula. On the basis of our frost-kill model, no frost damages have been simulated or are expected between now and the end of January. 3

to : 15 Jan uary 2013 Dev1atlon Unit:% Un it: mm >=150 >=100 - <150 >= 80- < 100 >= -100-< -50 >= -50 - < -30 >= -30 - < -10 >= -10-< 10 >=50 - <80 :n;3q-<50 >=10-<30 n;30-<50 >=20-<30 >=SO-< 100 >=

4 to : 15 Jan uary 2013 Dev1atlon Unit:% Un it: mm >=150 >=100 - <150 >= 80- < 100 >= -100-< -50 >= < -30 >= < -10 >= -10-< 10 >=50 - <80 :n;3q-<50 >=10-<30 n;30-<50 >=20-<30 >=SO-< 100 >= 10 - < 20 >= 0 - <= 10 17/ resoklhon. 2SIC.25 km -----c- (c)eui-!k i, AL.TERRA--. >= 100-<1.;," >=150 / 17/01!2013 res<mubon: 25x25 km (c)~ ,..._ c-. ~ "'l' AllutRA..,,.,.., NUMBER OF DAYS WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEPTH Highest values rrom : 11 December 2012 to :15January2013 Rain (mm)> 5 Year of Interest (YOI) Unit: days =O Unit: cm o >1 <=5 6-7 >5 - <= > 10 - <= 20 >=10 > 20 I 11<> ~ll00. 2SK2Skm ~"""=::::.,1~ -----~~ ~l>jal.teriu.- I 11<>1!2013 ~tjon : 25x25km :!!:==:~ ~"'l' Al.lERAA- Weather forecast for the coming days 16 January - 28 January Cold weather with less precipitation is forecast for southern Europe, and warmer than average northern and central Europe, abundant precipitation in temperatures in regions around Black Sea. Precipitation forecast Low pressure systems over the Atlantic and almost daily basis during the forecast period. Locally, Mediterranean will dominate the weather over western and southern Europe. Abundant precipitation is therefore forecast for western and northern parts of the Iberian Peninsula, Italy, the western parts of the Balkan the total amount of precipitation could exceed the longterm average by more than 150 mm. Very scarce precipitation is expected in northern and north-eastern Europe, northern Germany, northern France, the Baltic Peninsula and western Turkey. In these regions, countries, Benelux and eastern Turkey. significant precipitation is expected to occur on an Temperature forecast Warmer-than-average conditions are forecast for the Balkan Peninsula and regions around the Black Sea. Average daily air temperatures over coastal regions around the Black Sea are expected to exceed the long- 4

term average by 4-8 C. Consequently, the cumulated active temperature (Tbase=O C) could exceed the longterm average by more than 50 growing degree days.

5 term average by 4-8 C. Consequently, the cumulated active temperature (Tbase=O C) could exceed the longterm average by more than 50 growing degree days. Other parts of Europe will experience colder-thanaverage conditions. The strongest temperature anomaly is expected in the Baltic countries, western Russia, northern Poland, southern Scandinavia and the Benelux countries. More than six cold days with minimum air temperatures of less than -18 C are expected to occur over parts of north and north-eastern Europe. In the next few days and at the end of the forecast period, the minimum temperature is expected to drop below -18' C in parts of central Europe (southern Germany, the Czech Republic, and Poland)_ ECMWF ope-rational model ( starting 18 January 2013 ECMWF operational model (starting 18 January 2013 Deviahon unit: mm >= 150 >= < 150 >= 50-<60 >= 30-<50 >= 20 - <30 >= 10- < 20 >= 0-<= 10., -1 00/-50-50/ /100 >100 1&' resolution: 25x2S km ~:::.,1~ _..,Al.TEltl!AoonmrW!o! resolution: 25x25 km (c) l'-u Joont-C... ~i., Al.lfltlU.-- TEMPERATURE SUM ECMWF operational model (starting 18 January 2013 AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE ECMWF operational model ( starting 18 January 2013 Averaged values Base tempereture: 0 Deviation Unit: degrees Celsius < -8 (cooler in YOI) {cooler in YOI) Unit: degree days (Celsius) {cooler in VOil >=80 - < {cooler m YOI) >50-< < 0 (cooler m YOI) >=30-<50 no difference >= 20 - <30 >O - 2 (warmer m YOI) :>= < (warmer in YOI) >= < (warmer in YOI) >= < (warmer in YOI) >=-80 - <-50 > 8 (warmer in YOI) 1&' resolution: 25x25km (c) l:_,un Joont-C--. ~llf" Al.lfl":fl.ll NUMBER OF COLD DAYS ECMWF operational model (starting 18 January 2013 MINIMUM DAILY TEMPERATURE ECMWF operational model ( starting 18 January 2013 Minimum temperature ( 0 C) <= -1 8 Lowest values Year of interest {YOJ) Unit: degrees Celsius <= -35 > < -30 Unit: days o. ::: 4-5 I >= 6 > <= -25 > <= -20 > -20 -<= -10 >-10-<=-5 > -5 - <=0 >0 - <=5 >S - <= 10 > 10 -<= 15 >15- <= 20 1&' (c)e..r.,.,...,u.-201!, -..ce.--c-- --i, Al.TERRA-- resolutkx'l : 25x25km (c)~u Joont-C... ~ l>jal.lfraa---- 5

2. Atlas maps Precipitation from : 11December2012 to : 20 December 2012 from : 11December2012 to : 20 December 2012 Year of interest- LTA >= 0 - < 1 >= 1 - < 10 >= 10 - <20 >=20 - <30 >=30 - <40

6 2. Atlas maps Precipitation from : 11December2012 to : 20 December 2012 from : 11December2012 to : 20 December 2012 Year of interest- LTA >= 0 - < 1 >= 1 - < 10 >= 10 - <20 >=20 - <30 >=30 - <40 >=40-<60 >=60 - <80 >=mo - < 1so >= 150- < 200 >= 200- < 300 >= /01/2013 resoluti00:2sx2s km ()(~1Jnoor> ~hc.ntr.. ~.,. M.UMA- Unit: % >= <-80 >=-80- <-50 >= -50- < -30 >=-30 - <-10 >=10-<30 resolution: 2Sx25 km =- ()(~l.jnoor> ~.. c..ir. ~.,. M..H:MA- from : 21 December to : 31 December 2012 Year of interest- LTA >= 0- < 1 ::>: 1 - < 10 >= 10 -< 20 >=20 - <30 >= 30- < 40 >=40 -< 60 >= 60-<80 >= < 150 >= < 200 >= < 300 resokltion: 25x25 km ()!.._,Unoanl012. _,_,._"""'" -.-tiii ""-n:mta-- Unit:% :>: < -80 >= -80- < -50 >= -50- < -30 >=-30 - <-10 >= < 10 >= 10- < 30 >= 30 - <50 >= 50 - < 80 >= 100 resokltion: 25x25km ()!.._,Unoanl012,,._,,c..in...,....._TfM!A-- from : 01 January 2013 to : 10 January from : 01 January 2013 to : 10 January Year of interest - LTA >= 0- < 1 >= 1 - < 10 >= 10 -< 20 >=20 - <30 >=30 - <40 >= 40- < 60 >=60 -< 80 >= < 150 >= < 2eo >= 200- < 300 resotution: 25x25km =:. ()(.._,1Jnoor>l ~nc.nir.. --bjl"m.tfm!a- Unit: % >= < -80 >= -80- < -50 >= -50- < -30 >= < -10 >=-10 - < 10 >=10 - <30 >= 30 - < 50 >= 50 - <80 >= 80 - <10e-.,,- >= 100 resolution: 25x25 km =:. ()(.._,1Jnoor>l ~nc.nir.. --bjl"m.tfm!a- 6

7 MARS Bulletins 2013 Date Publication Reference 21 Jan Agromet. analysis Vol. 21 No Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 21 No Mar Agromet analysis and Vol. 2 1 No Apr Agromet analysis, Vol. 21 No. 4 remote sensing and 21 May Agromet analysis, Vol. 21 No. S forecast and pasture analysis 17 Jun Agromet analysis, Vol. 2 1 No. 6 forecast and pasture update 22 Jul Agromet analysis, Vol. 21 No. 7 forecast, pasture update and rice analysis 26 Aug Agromet analysis and Vol. 21 No Sep Agromet analysis, Vol. 21 No 9 forecast and pasture update 21 Oct Agromet analysis, Vol. 21 No. 10 forecast, pasture analysis and rice analysis 25 Nov Agromet analysis and Vol. 2 1 No Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 2 1 No. 12 As the Commiss ion's in-house science servi ce, the Joint Research Centre's miss ion is to provide EU po licies with ind ependent, evidence-based scientific and t echnical support throughout the whole policy cycle. Working in close cooperation with policy Directorates-General, the JRC addresses key societal challenges wh ile stimulatin g innovation through developing new standard s. methods and tools. and sharing and transferring its know-how to the Member States and international community. The current MARS* Bulletin is an EC publication from AGRl4CAST (JRC/IES MARS Unit) All MARS Bulletins are available under: uropa.e u/mars/bu lleti ns-pu bli cations MARS agro-meteo rologicol data and is available at: Analysis and reports A. Bussay, A. Ceglar Reporting support: G. Mulhern, I. Biavetti Edition B. Baruth, S. Niemeyer Data production MARS unit AGRl4CAST/JRC, AL TERRA (NL), Meteoconsult (NL) and VITO (BE) Contact JRC-IES-MARS I AGR l4 CAST Action i nfo-ag ri 4cast j rc.ec.eu ropa.eu JRC EUR EN ISSN ISSN European Union 2013 'MARS stands for Monitoring Ag ricultural Resources Legal Notice: Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication. Disclaimer: The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official EC position. Technical not e: The long term average {LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering The mission of the JRC-IES is to provide scientific-t echnical support to the European Union's po licies for the protection and sustain able development of the European and global environment.

Crop Monitoring in Europe WINTER CEREAL HARDENING IS PROGRESSING WELL. MARS BULLETIN Vol.20 No.12 (2012)

Crop Monitoring in Europe WINTER CEREAL HARDENING IS PROGRESSING WELL. MARS BULLETIN Vol.20 No.12 (2012) ONLINE VERSION JRC68576 EUR 24736 EN ISSN 1831-9424 ISSN 1831-9793 Crop Monitoring in Europe MARS BULLETIN Vol.20 No.12 (2012) Issued: 17 December 2012 WINTER CEREAL HARDENING IS PROGRESSING WELL The last