WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION

Transcription

1 WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION MEETING OF THE COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMS OPEN PROGRAMME AREA GROUP ON PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES (PWS) IMPLEMENTATION/COORDINATION TEAM ON PWS (CBS/OPAG-PWS ICT/PWS) MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA, 2-6 JUNE 2014 FINAL REPORT

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Meeting of the Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) Open Programme Area Group (OPAG) on Public Weather Services (PWS) Implementation/Coordination Team (ICT) on PWS (CBS/OPAG-PWS ICT/PWS) was held in Melbourne, Australia, from 2 to 6 June In addition to the Chairperson and the Co-Chairperson of the OPAG, the meeting was attended by the Chairs of the three PWS Expert Teams. The Chair of CBS (DPFS-PWS) Task Team (TT) on the Provision of Operational Meteorological Assistance to Humanitarian Agencies was unable to participate on this occasion. The ICT/PWS discussed the changes that have been implemented within the OPAG/PWS as part of its re-structuring at the request of CBS-Ext.(10). Of particular importance to the OPAG was the positioning of Service Delivery as one of the key Strategic Thrusts of the Organization, and the subsequent adoption by Cg-XVI of The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery. Matters of particular note arising from the reports to ICT from the Chair of the TT and the Chairs of the ETs, and the discussions that ensued include the following: (1) The draft Frameworks for Competency Assessments for PWS Forecaster, Weather Broadcasters and Communicators, PWS Advisors engaged in user interaction, media liaison and outreach activities, Persons engaged in the improvement, innovation and delivery of Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Products and Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Weather Advisor have been finalized for presentation to the forthcoming extraordinary session of CBS (CBS-Ext.(2014), Asuncion, Paraguay, September 2014); (2) The Guidelines on Impact-Based Forecasting and Risk-Based Warnings Services have been drafted and will be finalized at a meeting scheduled for Geneva in July The Guidelines will be presented to CBS-Ext.(2014); (3) A meeting of the joint DPFS/PWS Task Team on the Provision of Operational Meteorological Assistance to Humanitarian Agencies is planned for July 2014 in Geneva to advance the work of this Team; (4) Work was advanced on a joint WMO/World Bank publication. The aim of this publication is to provide guidance to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) on the conduct of Social and Economic Benefit studies; this publication is anticipated in December 2014; (5) The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery and its Implementation Plan was published and distributed to Members; (6) The ICT decided on a fundamental re-structuring of the OPAG to align more closely with the elements of service delivery as defined in The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery. It proposed that all of the ETs be re-named to reflect their new range of responsibilities and developed a proposed mapping of Service Delivery (SD) elements which each of these ETs will address; (7) An important Deliverable of the ICT was re-drafting the Terms of Reference (TORs) of the Expert Teams within the OPAG to reflect the new areas of responsibility as noted in point (6) above. (i)

3 1. OPENING At the kind invitation of the Government of Australia, the Meeting of the Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) Open Programme Area Group (OPAG) on Public Weather Services (PWS) Implementation/Coordination Team (ICT) on PWS (CBS/OPAG-PWS ICT/PWS) was held in Melbourne, Australia, from 2 to 6 June The meeting was chaired by Mr Gerald Fleming, the Chairperson of CBS/OPAG-PWS. The Meeting opened at 0900 hours at the headquarters of the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Melbourne. In his opening remarks, Mr Fleming welcomed the participants, and welcomed also Dr Sue Barrell, Acting Deputy Director of the Bureau and Vice-president of CBS, who officially opened the meeting on behalf of the Permanent Representative of Australia with WMO. Mr Fleming thanked Mr Jonathan Gill and the staff of the Bureau who had welcomed the participants and had made excellent logistical arrangements for the meeting. Ms Haleh Kootval, the WMO Secretariat representative, welcomed the participants on behalf of the Secretary- General and thanked the Bureau for hosting the meeting. 2. ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING The Meeting agreed on its working hours as 0900 to 1700, with appropriate time allowed for lunch and coffee breaks. 3. REVIEW OF THE RELEVANT DECISIONS OF CBS-15, EC-65 AND ECWG-SD 3.1 The Secretariat and the Chairperson of the OPAG/PWS briefed the participants on the most important events that had taken place since the ICT had held its last met in Montreal in These included the fifteenth session of CBS ((CBS-15), Jakarta, Indonesia, September 2012), the sixty-fifth session of the WMO Executive Council (EC-65, Geneva, Switzerland, June 2013), and the meetings of the Executive Council Working Group on Service Delivery (ECWG-SD) during the intervening period. 3.2 It was noted that both CBS and EC had reviewed the draft Guidelines on Impact-Based Forecasting and Risk-Based and Warning Services and the draft Framework for Competency Requirements. The latter was an explicit item on the Agenda for this meeting of the ICT (Item 11 (i)) and is discussed in more detail below. The intention is to present the Framework for Competency Requirements to the upcoming extraordinary session of CBS (CBS-Ext.(2014)). Other items relating to the work of PWS which were discussed at EC included the publication on Social and Economic Benefits of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) (currently being drafted), the Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP), and progress with the implementation of the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) with the related matter of the WMO Register of Alerting Authorities. 3.3 At the Meeting of the Executive Council Working Group on Service Delivery (ECWG-SD), recently held in Geneva, Switzerland, March 2014, all of the topics mentioned above were discussed, in addition to the matter of harmonizing approaches to Service Delivery. The ECWG-SD sought to establish common principles for Service Delivery, founded on: User Focus; and Science-based Services. 3.4 Ms Kootval introduced the publication, The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery and Its Implementation Plan, which had been published in March This publication had been thoroughly reviewed internally within WMO by regional associations (RAs), technical commissions (TCs), etc. The initial impetus for the publication had come from the fifteenth session of the World Meteorological Congress (Cg-XV, Geneva, May 2007). There followed a discussion on the hierarchy of WMO documents, from Technical Regulations to Guidelines. PWS had generally published Guidelines, but the ICT agreed that PWS should aim to raise the level of its documentation to that of Recommended - 1 -

4 Practice. These documents represented a Best Practice approach and were distinguished by the use of the word Should in distinction to the Technical Regulations which used the word Shall. Technical Regulation documents could refer to Recommended Practices. The ICT welcomed the publication of the document and noted that it marked a very significant development in PWS. Recalling that the ICT had already partially restructured the OPAG at the Montreal meeting, the ICT agreed to revisit this aspect to consider whether a more thorough restructuring, to fully align the OPAG with the elements of The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery, was warranted. 3.5 In relation to Impact-Based Forecasting, the ICT noted that there were some linkages to the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences/World Weather Research Programme (CAS/WWRP) which has a focus on high-impact weather as part of the legacy of THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Project. There was recognition of the need for Impact-Based Forecasting research as an aid to developing impact-based weather services. A meeting had been arranged for Geneva in July 2014 to finalize the Guidelines on Impact-Based Forecasting ; this meeting would include the Chair of the OPAG, and a few key members of the ET/DPM involved in the production of the guidelines. 4. REPORT OF THE OPAG CHAIRPERSON ON ACTIVITIES OF THE OPAG, INCLUDING RELEVANT DECISIONS OF THE CBS-MG MEETINGS IN THE INTER-SESSIONAL PERIOD 4.1 The Chair of the OPAG provided an overview of relevant decisions taken at CBS Management Group (CBS-MG) meetings in the period since the last CBS Session. Mr Fleming commenced by noting the increased demand for PWS and also the challenging situation of many NMHSs in maintaining such services in a difficult economic climate. He suggested that this was a good time to re-focus on the qualities that underpin the work of the PWS community good communication, user engagement and high-quality service delivery. 4.2 Among the items that had been discussed at MG was the relationship between the RAs and TCs; in particular, how work conducted at the TC level might best be transferred to Members for their benefit, and the optimum role of the RAs in this context. 4.3 In the matter of Data Policy, the MG noted that the establishment of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) gave rise to particular requirements, but that there was no appetite to re-open Resolution-40 (Cg-XII). 4.4 The name of CBS had come up for discussion as it was recognized that Services were now a major component of the work of the Commission, along with Systems. It had been agreed that the final S of the CBS acronym might be taken to refer equally to Systems or to Services. It was noted that the concept of Basic Services was a difficulty in that there was no great consistency between Members in the provision of Basic Services. The OPAG/PWS had made some progress in this matter by drafting definitions of Essential and Recommended elements of a national PWS Programme; these definitions had been endorsed by both CBS and Congress with minimal alteration. 4.5 In the matter of the SWFDP, the MG had noted that some sub-projects had by now advanced to a mature stage and that the D in the acronym should henceforth refer to Development rather than Demonstration to reflect this fact. 4.6 The Chair informed the meeting that the forthcoming CBS-Ext.(2014) would be very short just 3.5 days, with two half-days for the TECO. The focus would be on decisions required rather than on reporting past activity. The TECO would focus primarily on WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) but there would be some PWS involvement as one of the other themes is Next Generation Forecasting and Services

5 4.7 The Chair noted that meteorology has always had a very close relationship with the media, on which it relies for much of the transmission of weather information to the end-user. The media landscape is changing very quickly, and in a very fundamental manner, as mobile technology and increased bandwidth enable a whole range of new services to be developed and delivered. The ICT/PWS should take some time to consider these developments and provide some guidance to NMHSs on strategies to best exploit these new media possibilities, recognizing that the traditional media of radio and television are still the primary channels of communication and sometimes the only channels in the great majority of countries. 4.8 In relation to CAP and the WMO Register of Alerting Authorities, the Chair noted with appreciation that the Register has become mature, with 133 Editors having been appointed, and that CAP Jump-Start and Implementation workshops had been held in a number of countries. This technology, and the associated structure that has been established through the Register, has the potential to place NMHSs at the centre of Emergency Management communication systems and leverages both the 24/7 nature of NMHS operations and the expertise in information technology (IT) and communications systems that has been developed within meteorology to support these everyday operations. 4.9 Regarding the World Expo 2010 Nowcasting Services (WENS) Demonstration Project, the Chair noted that this Project has been a key focus of PWS activities over the past five years or thereabouts. The Project has now concluded and work is underway to fully research the data collected Other items mentioned by the Chair in his report were covered in more detail under the relevant substantive agenda items, and reported below as appropriate. 5. REVIEW OF THE CURRENT TERMS OF REFERENCE (TORS) OF THE ICT 5.1 The Terms of Reference (TORs) of the ICT/PWS, as approved by CBS-15, are as follows: (d) (e) (f) (g) Coordinate the implementation of Congress, the Executive Council and the Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) decisions with respect to Public Weather Services, especially those relating to The WMO Strategy on Service Delivery ; Keep under review the work of the PWS Expert Teams and coordinate and guide their work programmes; Consult and collaborate to ensure coordination of the work of the Open Programme Area Group (OPAG) on PWS with that of other CBS OPAGs, technical commissions (TCs), EC Working Groups, regional associations (RAs) and WMO Programmes and initiatives; Continue to encourage stronger dialogue between National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and development partners and users (e.g., media, health, emergency management) in areas relevant to PWS; Continue to encourage and provide guidance to Members to assert the authority of NMHSs as the sole providers of official high-impact weather warnings; Evaluate and report on the effectiveness of the information and guidance material produced by the PWS Programme, and the demonstration projects and other WMO initiatives to which the Programme contributes, in building the capacity of NMHSs; Develop and keep under review a competency framework appropriate to PWS forecasting and related activities; - 3 -

6 (h) (i) (j) Collaborate with development partners and other WMO entities to assist NMHSs in the identification and assessment of societal, economic and environmental impacts and benefits of hydrometeorological services; Provide guidance to NMHSs in the provision of enhanced hydrometeorological support for major cultural and sporting events; and Continue to promote awareness in the WMO community of material arising from the work of the OPAG. The ICT/PWS agreed that TOR (i) would not need to be carried forward, as a guideline document in this area was imminent, and that there were no further responsibilities attending to the OPAG in this matter. The remaining TORs continued to be relevant and would continue unchanged for the present; they would be reviewed at the next meeting of the ICT to be scheduled before the sixteenth session of CBS (CBS-16). 6. REVIEW OF THE DELIVERABLES FROM THE 2012 MEETING OF THE ICT (MONTREAL, CANADA) The deliverables, as agreed at the 2012 meeting, were discussed and the status of each of the deliverables was outlined. The ICT agreed which of the deliverables could be regarded as complete and which of them needed to be carried forward to the work of the ICT over the coming period. A consolidated list of the deliverables to be carried forward is provided as Appendix IV to this report. 7. REPORT OF THE CHAIRPERSON OF THE ET/DPM Mr Elliott Eli Jacks of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS), and Chair of the ET/DPM, provided the report to the Team. Pursuant to discussions that took place at the most recent meeting of the ET in Flic En Flac, Mauritius (October 2013), the Chair described progress on the team's primary deliverable as follows: Finalize the document entitled: NMHS Guideline on the Creation of Early Warning Systems and Evolution to Provision of Impact-Based Products and Services. The creation of this deliverable represented a follow on from previous, key activities and deliverables of the team as developed at the 2011 Beijing team meeting. Specifically, these key deliverables included developing a template for creating Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) with NMHS disaster management partners, and articulating means for providing impact-based information in weather forecasts and warnings. The deliverable developed during the Mauritius meeting represents an evolution and expansion of these accomplishments into a holistic set of guidelines on how NMHS could evolve their forecast and warning services. Mr Jacks described progress towards completion of this deliverable, including examples of services provided at the various levels of service evolution. The draft Guidelines document articulates each step along the way of this recommended evolution of NMHS forecast and warning services, with steps and examples summarized as follows: - 4 -

7 (1) General Weather Forecasts: Croatia provides general weather forecasts out to seven (7) days and provides other statements for the public via the web, radio and television (TV) services. Every day, China broadcasts more than 5,000 weather forecast programs by local or national TV stations. (2) Weather warnings based on arbitrary fixed meteorological thresholds The U.S. NWS issues winter storm warnings based on fixed thresholds for snowfall. These thresholds can vary from one locale to another. Similarly, Croatia uses thresholds that vary from one locale to another for issuing yellow, orange and red excessive heat warnings. (3) Weather warnings with relevant thresholds agreed with users/practitioners In some Chinese cities, such as Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai, the local Meteorological Administration has calculated the threshold values of each road for which flooding will occur if exceeded. The U.S. NWS develops criteria for "Red Flag Warnings" each year in collaboration with local fire agencies. These criteria may change from year to year based on fuel conditions and other factors. (4) Weather warnings driven by spatial/temporal variation in thresholds The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) operates a landslip warning system in collaboration with its Civil Engineering Department (CED). Its operation requires ongoing "knowledge" of past and expected rainfall intensity based on historical landslip occurrences. The CED has developed a relationship between 24-h accumulated rainfall and the number of landslips to facilitate landslip prediction in real time. (5) Impact-Based Warnings (IBW) Croatian forecasters are using appropriate language within nautical warnings for smaller vessels; e.g., Moderate sea with waves reaching meters will present danger to smaller vessels (speed boats, excursion boats ). Forecasters from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) are adding specific damage terms such as No impact (in Chinese 无 ), Slight impact ( 轻微 ), Light impact ( 较轻 ), Medium impact ( 中等 ), Heavy impact ( 较重 ) and Serious impact ( 严重 ) with the intent of differentiating more typical typhoon storms from those that would be expected to result in widespread property damage or potential loss of life. The U.S. NWS is developing local "Impact Catalogues" designed to match expected hazardous weather with specific impacts as defined by key local disaster management authorities. These catalogues will enable notification of such partners when specific impacts of interest to them are expected

8 (6) Risk-Based Warnings (RBW) The European Meteoalarm system embodies the goals of risk based forecasting, in that it combines factors related to societal exposure and vulnerability with forecast uncertainty. The Guidelines document is nearing completion. However, a special working meeting is planned with selected ET Members from 30 July to 1 August 2014 to more completely define definitions and recommended NMHS service options, especially those associated with Risk-Based Forecasting. The document will be delivered to CBS upon completion for approval. A second deliverable was identified during the Mauritius meeting as follows: "Develop Training requirements document for early warning systems and impact-based forecasting" Upon discussion, the ICT agreed with the ET's initial asessment that development of training requirements should not commence until the Guidelines document itself has been completed.therefore, the Secretariat suggested that the due date for this deliverable be delayed until sometime in REPORT OF THE CHAIRPERSON OF THE ET/COPE The Chairperson of the ET/COPE provided a review of the Team s activities and accomplishments since the last meeting of the ICT, focusing particularly on the outcomes of the Expert Team s meeting in Nanjing, China (October 2013). The work of the Team and future plans are summarized below. At the meeting of the ET/COPE, the Team reviewed its TORs, which had been modified at its last meeting in Mombasa, Kenya (December 2011), and subsequently adopted at CBS-15. The Team agreed that the TORs continued to adequately represent the areas of work under the responsibility of the Team and that they would continue to be kept under review. Review of past deliverables Kenya. The Team reviewed the status of the deliverables agreed at its previous meeting in 2011 in Deliverable 1: Completion of Guidelines on communicating the socio-economic benefits of PWS Only limited progress had been achieved on this deliverable, due in part to the challenges associated with developing simple information relating to this complex area of social science. The Team agreed to refocus their efforts in this area by giving particular emphasis to the need for guidance information for senior NMHS managers on how to interact with Government decision-makers and promote the visibility and value of NMHSs

9 Deliverable 2: Completion of Guidelines on the use of social media by NMHSs The Guidelines on Strategies for use of Social Media by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (WMO-No. 1086, PWS-24), have been published and have been productively utilized by several NMHSs in the development of their own Social Media strategies and programmes. This publication can be now be freely accessed at the following link: Deliverable 3: Develop a list of experts to assist with training and development activities on communication, outreach and public education aspects of PWS delivery Competencies for all areas of PWS, including media and broadcasting, have been drafted and reviewed by CBS and its relevant OPAGs. For its part, Team had contributed to the development of competencies for NMHS staff engaged in communicating with external users and key partners, such as the media. These competencies were further refined during the ICT meeting and will be finalized for submission to CBS-Ext.(2014) for approval. Deliverable 4: Preparation of Summary Guides on: (i) using social media by NMHSs; (ii) communicating socio-economic benefits of PWS; and (iii) conducting PWS outreach activities This deliverable had not yet been achieved, but in view of the success of the previous Summary Guides, this area of work deliverable will be maintained by the Team. In relation to social media, the Team recognized the role it can play during high-impact weather events and agreed on the need for the Summary Guide on social media to particularly focus on the use of Twitter. In regard to socio-economic benefits aspects of PWS, it was agreed not to pursue the Summary Guide on communicating socio-economic benefits. With respect to PWS outreach, the Team noted the value of promoting PWS in schools and with youth and accordingly agreed that the Summary Guide on PWS outreach activities should particularly focus on youth. Deliverable 5: Preparation of Guidelines to assist NMHSs to develop a corporate external communication strategy The Team noted that this was a pending item which needed to be followed up. In doing so, it was agreed that the focus of it should be broadened to address the development of communication plans in general, so that it could be used whenever NMHSs have a need to communicate with stakeholders, e.g., to accompany a new product launch, or to implement an overall corporate strategy for external communication. Deliverable 6: Develop a template for an MOU between an NMHS and a media organization This deliverable had been completed and the document had been published as Guidelines for Creating a Memorandum of Understanding and a Standard Operating Procedure between a National Meteorological or Hydrometeorological Service and a Partner Agency (WMO-No. 1099, PWS-26). This publication has been distributed to all NMHSs as well as placed on the WMO PWS Website, which can be freely accessed at the following link:

10 Deliverable 7: Determine opportunities for collaboration on communication, outreach and public education aspects of: (i) WIGOS; (ii) climate services and the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) The Team noted that GFCS and WIGOS had established their own communication and outreach activities through their respective Offices and thus decided to close this action item. However, following discussions with the Chief of the WMO World Climate Applications and Services Division, the Team agreed to collaborate with the Commission for Climatology (CCl) and the relevant WMO Secretariat programmes to pursue a common approach to the communication of weather and climate information and, in particular, uncertainties in such information. Deliverable 8: Liaise with other PWS Expert Teams, CBS/OPAGs and regional associations (RAs) to identify opportunities for collaboration and sharing of information on areas of mutual interest The Team agreed that liaison with RAs was especially important in order to avoid duplication of work between different RAs and CBS Expert Teams. Where there are regional structures in place, such as working groups on service delivery, the results of the work of the Expert Team and its deliverables should be shared with those groups. Deliverable 9: Develop an on-line survey for NMHSs, to be completed by their PWS Focal Points, which measures the usage of different media for PWS delivery The Team reviewed the work done so far on this deliverable and then proposed revisions to the survey that expanded its scope to address a broader range of service delivery aspects. It agreed that the survey should be conducted as a new deliverable. Deliverable 10: Seek opportunities to organize training courses for senior and executive NMHS managers on working with media While it was recognized by the Team that this was an important item, it was conscious of the fact that opportunities for this type of training were very limited. The Team agreed to roll this deliverable into a new activity related to the development of appropriate elearning modules. New deliverables The Team then discussed the major areas of work to be addressed over the coming period, with particular reference to topics that have been identified by WMO Members as being of high priority and are relevant to the ET s TORs. The Team considered the benefits that can be gained when an NMHS develops a formal communication strategy for external stakeholder engagement. Such strategies can be very helpful in ensuring that the key messages are articulated and the target audience is successfully identified. The Team agreed that there would be value in developing an online toolkit to assist NMHSs that wish to develop such strategies. The toolkit should include simple guidelines, practical templates and checklists to guide the preparation of the strategies. The Team reflected on the merits of undertaking an NMHS benchmarking survey to evaluate the way in which WMO Members are undertaking PWS service delivery. It was agreed that such a survey would be very helpful in better understanding the areas of service delivery that the Team should focus on in the future. Included in the survey should be questions that identify the preferred channels for providing PWS products and services and to establish what roadblocks might be affecting the use of newer systems and technologies

11 The Team discussed the significant challenges facing many NMHSs, including funding pressures, reduced staff numbers and the lack of flexibility for new staff recruitment. The Team agreed that one strategy to assist an NMHS to address this issue is to utilize the information obtained from socio-economic benefit studies. Benefits to NMHSs would include improved visibility, increased demand for services and alignment of the work of the NMHS with the overall priorities of its Government. The Team agreed that some guidelines should be developed that can assist NMHS managers to communicate effectively with Government. It was recognized that such guidelines fall outside the Team s mandate and that the issue is better taken up by a high-level WMO body such as the Executive Council Working Group on Strategic and Operational Planning (ECWG-SOP). Mr Ivan Čačić, in his role as President of RA VI (Europe), agreed to pursue this further through the ECWG-SOP and in collaboration with other RAs and the relevant Programmes of WMO. The Team discussed its engagement with the work of the Federation for Internet Alerts (FIA) on their development of guidelines on use of standardized graphics for online presentation of warnings information, including information returned by the most commonly used search engines, such as Google. The Guidelines address the best way such information can be presented, including the use of standardized colours and icons, where appropriate. At the invitation of the lead author for the guidelines, Mr Eliot Christian, the Chair of the Team, has provided some input to the draft Guidelines from the perspective of the Team s area of expertise. The Team discussed the importance of training for NMHS staff, including senior managers, on PWS communication and presentation. A particular area of importance is how to handle challenging media interviews on issues such as NMHS performance, forecast uncertainty and climate change. The Team therefore agreed to implement a new deliverable on this subject. The Team reflected on the continuing growth in importance of Social Media as a channel for service delivery. The value of using platforms such as Twitter during real time events was highlighted and the Team agreed that a short Summary Guide for NMHSs on how to utilize Twitter during high-impact weather would be helpful. In summary, the items below describe the specific deliverables the ET/COPE will be focussing on in the current period: (1) Develop an on-line toolkit to assist NMHSs develop communication strategies for engaging with external stakeholders; (2) Develop NMHS survey on the usage of different media for PWS delivery; (3) Develop guidance material for senior NMHS managers on working with senior Government decision-makers, with a focus on communicating the socio-economic benefits of NMHSs; (4) Develop online elearning training modules on for NMHS staff, including senior managers, on priority areas of PWS communication, including on working with the media, handling difficult interviews and communicating forecast uncertainty; (5) Develop a Summary Guide for NMHSs on the Use of Twitter During Real-Time Events ; and (6) Develop a Summary Guide for NMHSs on PWS Public Education Activities, with a Focus on Schools and Youth

12 9. REPORT OF THE COORDINATOR OF THE CBS (DPFS-PWS) TASK TEAM ON THE PROVISION OF OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL ASSISTANCE TO HUMANITARIAN AGENCIES As the Coordinator for the Task Team was not able to attend the meeting of the ICT/PWS, this matter was deferred. A meeting of this Task Team has been arranged for late July 2014 to further the agreed work programme. 10. REPORT OF THE CHAIRPERSON OF THE ET/SPII The Chairperson of the CBS/OPAG-PWS Expert Team on Services and Products Innovation and Improvement (CBS/OPAG-PWS ET/SPII) provided a review of the Team s activities and accomplishments since the last meeting of the ICT, focusing particularly on the outcomes of the Expert Team s meeting in Hong Kong, China, in May To date, three of the five deliverables have been completed, and two deliverables remain open. The Team agreed to modify, add to, or carry forward those deliverables that best match the Team s work plan for the inter-sessional period. Deliverable 1: to publish guidance on the adoption of a service-driven approach to development of Nowcasting Systems. The Team developed a questionnaire to gather information on selected nowcast systems representing various levels of technological development and in varying climate regimes from NMHSs. Prior to sending the questionnaire to NMHSs, the Team shared it with the president of the Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observations (CIMO) for review and input. The Team incorporated the feedback from CIMO, finalized the questionnaire and distributed it to NMHSs through the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) annual survey. Responses are due by the end of June The deliverable remains open and the due dates for the remaining actions were modified based on the revised questionnaire response date. Deliverable 2: to review and provide comments on the impact-based forecasting document drafted by ET/DPM. The Team s review included a recommendation to incorporate key user partnerships. The input was provided to ET/DPM. The ET agreed to coordinate with ET/DPM on next steps regarding how NMHSs can implement impact-based forecasts/warnings. The Team chose to preserve the deliverable to keep apprised of activities regarding impact-based forecasting and the implementation of the guide. Deliverable 3: to coordinate with WMO Education and Training (ETR) Programme to develop training material on forecast uncertainty for use by NMHSs and WMO training activities. The Team noted that this deliverable had not yet been achieved, but agreed that training material on forecast uncertainty remains a priority. Thus, the meeting agreed that the deliverable should not only be maintained, but modified to include the identification of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) application-focused training resources, and to create a complementary presentation to the summary document highlighting EPS applications and interpretation (e.g., the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Extreme Forecast Index) with examples of user coordinated / collaborated uncertainty products from NMHSs. Deliverable 4: to focus on assessing the needs and interests in verification of World Weather Information Service (WWIS) max/min temperature forecasts from participating NMHSs. The WWIS Website is an official source of weather forecast comprising more than 1,600 city forecast contributed by about 130 Members. In order to support The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery by improving forecast accuracy, the Team launched a pilot project on verification of WWIS max/min temperature forecasts. The first two verification bulletins were produced and sent to 20 Members by end of The ET agreed to sustain this initiative since it helps members measure qualitatively the improvement of their temperature forecasts. The deliverable title was amended to: Assess the needs

13 and interest in verification of WWIS max/min temperature forecasts from participating NMHSs and assess uptake and usability by those participating NMHSs. Several follow-up activities were added to the deliverable, including that to develop and distribute a questionaire to assess the uptake and usability of WWIS verification report, to analyze the feedback, and to report the results back to the ET for possible follow-up actions to improve forecast quality. Deliverable 5: to enhance the WWIS and Service Weather Information Centre (SWIC) Websites. The proposed enhancements to the WWIS and SWIC Websites were accomplished, including updating the language versions (ten (10) languages now available), development of an Android version of the MyWorldWeather App, and an addition of WMO social media feed to the SWIC Website. The Meeting recommended that the deliverable remain in an open/ongoing status as the ET continues to keep abreast of performance and other enhancements to the WWIS and SWIC Websites. Following a review of the current deliverables, the Team discussed six (6) major topic areas during its meeting in Hong Kong, China: Nowcasting; Communicating Uncertainty; the Big Data Problem Making the Best Use of Data for Forecasters; The Use of New of Technologies, Especially Mobile Apps in Service Delivery; Spatial Data and Geographical Information System (GIS)-based Services; and the Role of the ET in implementation of The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery. Below are the summaries and associated outcomes of these discussions: Nowcasting The Team discussed developments in nowcasting techniques and systems. It noted that installation of radar and/or lightning networks alone would not deliver effective nowcasting capability. The Meeting also recognized that a sound quality control process is an essential attribute for a nowcast system. The critical objective of any nowcasting service was the provision of products to meet user needs and support decisions relating to impacts of hazardous weather conditions. The need for guidance on nowcasting methods and techniques relating to other hazards such as fog and winter weather was discussed. The Team agreed to modify the existing Deliverable 1, and include several additional actions. Communicating Uncertainty The Team discussed and reviewed the work done over the last cycle regarding forecast uncertainty. It was noted that the development of Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) is one of the key advances in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) in recent years and is being increasingly used to develop guidance information on forecast uncertainty and confidence. The concept of least likely, most likely, and worst case scenario graphics were discussed as effective methods to convey forecast uncertainty. The Team proposed to expand Deliverable 2 to include several new activities to incorporate uncertainty into PWS products and services, identifying best practices in providing uncertainty information in PWS products and services, and describing the process through linkage to The WMO Service Delivery Strategy. Big Data Problem Making the Best Use of Data for Forecasters NMHSs have seen rapid growth in the amount of data/environmental information available to forecasters and 'downstream' decision-makers. Environmental data will continue to proliferate especially as advanced observation systems/technology (e.g., the next generation of satellites and radar systems) generate increasingly large volumes of data. We have reached the point where human forecasters are unable to monitor and interpret all the relevant available information. This might be described as a 'Big Data' problem in meteorology. If the combined man/machine working model for hydrometeorological forecasting is to remain effective, a data management concept needs to be developed which prioritizes and filters the data in a way which allows forecasters make correct decisions. The Team defined a new deliverable around this topic

14 The Use of New Technologies, Especially Mobile Apps, in Service Delivery The Team discussed the emergence and use of new technologies, especially mobile apps, in NMHS service delivery. It was noted that there is an increasing trend globally in mobile users. Though mobile website is not as versatile as mobile app in terms of functionality, it may be a more cost-effective solution to deliver weather services to mobile users because the technology required for developing a mobile website is similar to that required for a conventional desktop website. The Team defined a new deliverable and identified several actions that it could pursue to promote the development and implementation of mobile-based solutions to expand PWS service delivery. Spatial Data and Geographical Information System (GIS)-based Services The Team noted an increasing recognition of the value of provision of hydrometeorological information in spatial formats compatible with GIS. Data in these formats allow interoperability of information from different sources to improve their use in decision-making. A growing number of NMHS partners/users are utilizing GIS datasets and would welcome the ability to ingest GIS formatted NHMS forecast/warning information; especially for high-impact hydrometeorological events and applications for emergency response. The Team agreed to define a new deliverable to explore the issue and define the needs of NMHSs. Role of the Team in the Implementation of The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery The Team discussed The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery and its Implementation Plan and the importance of incorporating a service-driven approach into the ET focus areas. When discussing the major topics and thematic areas of the ET, the Meeting referred to The WMO Service Delivery Strategy and identified linkages in appropriate deliverables. 11. CONSIDERATION AND DISCUSSIONS ON THE PRIORITIES IN THE PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES (PWS) PROGRAMME, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO: (i) Review of the PWS Competencies The ICT reviewed the set of five Frameworks for Competency Assessment which had been introduced during the 2012 meeting of the ICT. Since that time, there had been extensive consultations within the WMO Secretariat, with the EC Panel of Experts on Education and Training and with other bodies which had led to improvements and refinements in the Framework Competency documents. The ICT made some further editorial changes to these documents; they are attached as Appendix V to this report. The Chair of the OPAG will present the Frameworks for Competency Assessment to the upcoming CBS-Ext.(2014) and seek their approval by the Commission. (ii) Implementation of The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery The ICT considered its response to the publication of The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery and its Implementation Plan. Noting that Service Delivery is one of the strategic priorities of WMO, the ICT/PWS, at its earlier meeting in Montreal (2012), had moved towards re-aligning the Expert Teams within the OPAG with the elements of Service Delivery as detailed in the Strategy. Now that the The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery and Its Implementation Plan had been published, the ICT considered that the time was right to move further along this road and fully align the work of the OPAG with the elements of Service Delivery

15 The ICT/PWS took advantage of the meeting location in Melbourne to invite Professor John Zillman, ex-president of WMO, and one of the drivers behind the establishment of the PWS Programme, and Mr Kevin O Loughlin, who had served as Chair of the OPAG/PWS for ten years, to join the group and discuss the rationale behind the establishment of the PWS Programme. The ICT/PWS was conscious that, in embarking on a major restructuring, it would be opportune to re-examine the principles behind the establishment of the PWS Programme in WMO, to ensure that essential elements of PWS activity would not be lost in any change. The ICT/PWS benefitted greatly from the insights afforded by Prof. Zillman and Mr O Loughlin during this meeting. The thinking behind placing the OPAG within CBS, but as an Application Programme, was explained. It was emphasized that the services side of the work of NMHSs should be seen as a return to taxpayers for their investment in meteorological infrastructure. Following a comprehensive discussion, the ICT/PWS decided on the new re-aligned structures which it would propose to CBS (via CBS-MG). The name PWS would be retained as it had significant meaning and brand value within the WMO community; in any case a change in the Programme name was beyond the remit of the ICT. The OPAG had always maintained a strong focus on the impacts of severe weather, primarily through the ET/DPM, while also developing a focus on routine weather services as an important element in building and maintaining the visibility and relevance of NMHSs. Henceforth, all of the Expert Teams would have an element of focus on both routine and high-impact weather. In order to reinforce this point, the ICT/PWS determined that the focus should be on Public Weather Services for Public Safety and Welfare (PWS for PSW). This phrasing helped to encapsulate the role of PWS in assisting with the protection of life and property. The three Expert Teams in the OPAG would be re-named and re-focused as follows: (1) Expert Team on User Engagement for Service Improvement (ET/UESI) (2) Expert Team on Service Innovation and Design (ET/SID) (3) Expert Team on Service Delivery and Communication (ET/SDC) The ICT developed a matrix to articulate the mapping of the responsibilities of the old Expert Teams with the new Expert Teams. In developing this mapping, the ICT considered the role of the CBS DPFS/PWS Task Team on the Provision of Operational Meteorological Assistance to Humanitarian Agencies and also that of the WMO Forum on Social and Economic Benefits of Meteorological and Hydrological Services. It was recognized that this latter body was not a constituent part of the OPAG, but that its work was complementary to much of the work of the ICT and the ETs. The mapping matrix is presented below. The numbers attempt to prioritize the focus of the new Teams in respect of the areas of responsibility of the old ET structure and the components of Service Delivery

16 PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES FOR PUBLIC SAFETY AND WELFARE Old Team Name ET/DPM ET/SPII ET/COPE TT/Hum SEB Forum ICT/PWS New Team Name ET/UESI ET/SID ET/SDC TT/Hum SEB Forum ICT/PWS User engagement for Service Improvement Service Innovation and Design Service Delivery and Communication Monitoring and Evaluation Social and Economic Benefit Following this exercise, the ICT reviewed the existing TORs of the Expert Teams and clarified the changes in focus that would need to be made to reflect the new structures as defined above. These changes would need to be reflected in adjusted and refined TORs; these should be considered and drafted by the ETs at their next meetings and then passed to the next meeting of the ICT/PWS for further coordination with a view to presenting them to the CBS Session scheduled for (iii) Impact-based forecasting and risk-based warnings As noted in the report of the Chair of ET/DPM, a meeting has been scheduled for Geneva in late July to finalize the Guidelines on Impact-Based Forecasting and Risk-Based Warnings. This publication will be presented directly to CBS-Ext.(2014) in the coming September. (iv) Socio-Economic Benefits of Met/Hydro Services A major project is underway to prepare for publication a joint WMO-World Bank book on assessing the socio-economic benefits of meteorological and hydrological services. A meeting of the chapter authors was held in Boulder, Colorado, United States of America (May 2014), and second drafts of all chapters had been circulated. The editorial team plan to meet in August and a timetable has been defined which aims to bring the book to publication by the end of the year. Side-events will be organized at the upcoming Congress in 2015 and at other appropriate occasions to introduce and publicise the book and to encourage its use and application. 12. IDENTIFICATION OF CLEAR DELIVERABLES As noted in item 6 above, the Deliverables for the ICT/PWS for the coming period are primarily derived from the those agreed two years ago which are still outstanding. New deliverables derive from the decisions on re-alignment as outlined in Item 11 above. 13. FINALIZATION OF THE ICT DELIVERABLES The ICT/PWS Deliverables and Action Sheet for the intersessional period are presented in Appendix IV to this report

17 14. VISIT TO THE OPERATIONAL FORECASTING AND RELATED PWS FACILITIES OF THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, MELBOURNE 14.1 The ICT/PWS Members visited the Victoria Regional Office of the Bureau and were greeted by the Regional Director (VIC) Ms Tarini Casinader, and the supervising meteorologist of the Regional Forecast Office, Mr Ted Williams. The ICT/PWS received an overview of the forecast operations, which encompassed PWS and Aviation forecasting as well as provision for warnings of severe weather. Of particular interest were the arrangements for Bushfire forecast and warnings services, and the support provided to the State Control Centre in relation to emergency situations of all sorts The ICT also visited the Bureau National Operations Centre (BNOC) where the Director of the BNOC, Dr Andrew Tupper, gave a tour of the centre and provided an overview of the activities. As well as weather forecast and warnings guidance, the BNOC has responsibility for tsunami warnings, for warnings of hydrological phenomena and for maritime forecasts and warnings. 15. PREPARATION FOR THE CBS-EXT.(2014) SESSION 15.1 The ICT agreed that the restructuring of the Expert Teams within the OPAG, as discussed in item 11 above, would be brought to the upcoming informal meeting of CBS-MG scheduled for late June 2014 and then to CBS-Ext.(2014) in September The Expert Teams would all meet during the period to complete the legacy work deriving from the old structure, to agree TORs under the new structure, and to develop Deliverables The Chair of the ICT/PWS would bring the five Frameworks for Competency Assessment as finalized at this meeting (see 11 above) to CBS-Ext.(2014) for presentation to Members for approval The Guidelines on Impact-Based Forecasting and Risk-Based Warnings are expected to be finalized at the meeting arranged for late July 2014 and these also will be presented to CBS-Ext.(2014) for approval by the Commission. 16. PREPARATION OF THE REPORT OF THE MEETING AND THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The ICT/PWS considered a draft of the report of the meeting and adjusted the contents as appropriate. 17. REVIEW AND ADOPTION OF THE REPORT The ICT/PWS reviewed and adopted the draft report. 18. CLOSURE OF THE MEETING 18.1 The Chair and Members of the ICT/PWS expressed again the gratitude of the Team to Mr Jonathan Gill and the staff of the Bureau for the time and effort they had put into the hosting of the meeting The meeting closed at 1650 hours on Friday, 6 June

18 LIST OF APPENDICES TO THE FINAL REPORT OF THE MEETING OF THE COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMS OPEN PROGRAMME AREA GROUP ON PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES (PWS) IMPLEMENTATION/ COORDINATION TEAM ON PWS (CBS/OPAG-PWS ICT/PWS) MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA, JUNE Appendix I: Appendix II: Appendix III: List of Meeting Participants Final Meeting Programme Terms of Reference (TORs) of the ICT/PWS Appendix IV: ICT/PWS Deliverables and Action Sheet for the period 2014/2016 Appendix V: Frameworks for Competency Assessment

19 APPENDIX I FINAL LIST OF MEETING PARTICIPANTS NO.: COUNTRY: NAME AND TITLE(S): ADDRESS: 1. Ireland Mr Gerald FLEMING Chairperson of the CBS/OPAG- PWS ICT/PWS National Function: Head of Forecasting Office 2. China Prof. JIAO Meiyan Co-Chairperson of the CBS/OPAG-PWS ICT/PWS National Function: Deputy Administrator, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), in charge of weather and climate prediction, public service and DPM 3. Australia Mr Jonathan GILL Member of the CBS/OPAG-PWS ICT/PWS and Chairperson of the CBS/OPAG-PWS ET/COPE National Function: Manager, International Affairs Strategy, Parliamentary, International and Communication Branch Met Éireann (The Irish Met. Service) Glasnevin Hill DUBLIN, Ireland Tel.: Fax: (s): gfleming@eircom.net gerald.fleming@met.ie China Meteorological Administration 46 Zhongguancun Nanjajie, Haidian District BEIJING , China Tel.: / 6146 Fax: s: jiaomy@cma.gov.cn guoji@cma.gov.cn Australian Bureau of Meteorology 700 Collins Street GPO Box 1289 MELBOURNE, VIC 3001 Level 6, 700 Collins Street, DOCKLANDS, VIC 3008 Australia: Tel.: Fax: j.gill@bom.gov.au 4. United States of America Mr John L. GUINEY Member of the CBS/OPAG-PWS ICT/PWS and Chairperson of the CBS/OPAG-PWS ET/SPII National Function: Chief, Meteorological Services Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Weather Service (NWS), Eastern Region Headquarters National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Weather Service (NWS) Eastern Region Headquarters 630 Johnson Avenue, Suite 202 BOHEMIA, New York United States of America Tel.: Fax: John.Guiney@noaa.gov

20 5. United States of America Mr Elliott Eli JACKS Member of the CBS/OPAG-PWS ICT/PWS and Chairperson of the CBS/OPAG-PWS ET/DPM National Function: Chief, OCWWS Fire and Public Weather Services Branch at NOAA/NWS APPENDIX I, p. 2 Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services (NOAA) / National Weather Service (NWS) SSMC2, Room East-West Highway SILVER SPRING, MD United States of America Tel.: x 110 Fax: Elliott.Jacks@noaa.gov WMO SECRETARIAT 7 bis, avenue de la Paix, Case Postale No CH-1211 GENEVA 2, Switzerland PWS Website: 6. WMO HQ, Switzerland Ms Haleh KOOTVAL Chief, Public Weather Services Division Public Weather Services Programme Public Weather Services Division Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department (WDS) Tel.: Fax: HKootval@wmo.int

21 APPENDIX II FINAL MEETING PROGRAMME Monday, 2 June 2014 DAY Opening 2. Organization of the meeting Adoption of the agenda Working arrangements Host Mr Gerald Fleming (Chairperson of the CBS/OPAG-PWS ICT/PWS) Ms Haleh Kootval (WMO Secretariat) 30 minutes Review of relevant decisions of CBS-15, EC-65 and ECWG-SD Mr G. Fleming Ms H. Kootval 60 minutes COFFEE / TEA BREAK 30 minutes Report of the OPAG Chairperson on activities of the OPAG, including relevant decisions of CBS-MG Meetings in the inter-sessional period Mr G. Fleming 60 minutes LUNCH BREAK 90 minutes Review of the current Terms of Reference (TORs) of the ICT Prof. JIAO Meiyan (Co-Chairperson of the CBS/OPAG-PWS ICT/PWS) 60 minutes Review of the deliverables from the 2012 Meeting of the ICT (Montreal, Canada) Mr G. Fleming Ms H. Kootval 60 minutes COFFEE / TEA BREAK 30 minutes Report of the Chairperson of the ET/DPM Mr Elliott Eli Jacks (Chairperson of the CBS/OPAG-PWS ET/DPM) 60 minutes Tuesday, 3 June 2014 DAY Discussions of the Report of the Chairperson of the ET/DPM All Participants 30 minutes Report of the Chairperson of the ET/COPE Mr Jonathan P. Gill (Chairperson of the CBS/OPAG-PWS ET/COPE) 60 minutes

22 APPENDIX II, p COFFEE / TEA BREAK 30 minutes Discussions of the Report of the Chairperson of the ET/COPE All Participants 30 minutes Report of the Coordinator of the DRR Task Team on Support to Humanitarian Organizations Mr Michel Jean (Coordinator of the DRR Task Team on Support to Humanitarian Organizations), to be presented by Ms Jennifer Ann Milton, key expert 60 minutes LUNCH BREAK 90 minutes Discussions on the Report of the Coordinator All Participants 30 minutes Report of the Chairperson of the ET/SPII Mr John L. Guiney (Chairperson of the CBS/OPAG-PWS ET/SPII) 60 minutes COFFEE / TEA BREAK 30 minutes Discussions of the Report of the Chairperson of the ET/SPII All Participants 30 minutes Wednesday, 4 June 2014 DAY Consideration and discussions on the priorities in the Public Weather Services (PWS) Programme, including, but not limited to: (i) Review of the PWS Competencies; (ii) Implementation of The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery ; (iii) Impact-based forecasting and risk-based warnings (iv) Socio-Economic Benefits of Met/Hydro Services Led by Mr G. Fleming with participation of all Team Members 60 minutes COFFEE / TEA BREAK 30 minutes 11. Consideration and discussions on the priorities in the Public Weather Services (PWS) Programme, including, but not limited to: (i) Review of the PWS Competencies; (ii) Implementation of The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery ; (iii) Impact-based forecasting and risk-based warnings; and (iv) Socio-Economic Benefits of Met/Hydro Services (Continued) All Participants 90 minutes