Crop Veritas

Transcription

1 Crop Veritas 2016

2 Opening Statement Due to what appears to be an anomaly in the 2016 corn crop in my area, I felt compelled to see if the crop was indeed that good everywhere else. You can make the decision yourself based on the 2,900 miles that we traveled on a five state trek through the gut slot of the corn belt. Our objective was to stop every 50 miles unless something looked out of the ordinary. If we checked a field that we believed had a planting issue or a bug issue, etc., that appeared to be field specific we then cross-checked the problem field with a nearby field. Every field we cross-checked was, in fact, an aberration. The formula we that we used to compile our yields is as follows: Rows around x Rows up and down x Harvestable ears Divided by 85,000 kernels per bushel = yield Keep in mind, we use 85,000 kernels because it s middle of the road. We think in a drought year, one should use 90,000 and we also believe that 75,000 would be more accurate for this year s growing conditions. That s our bias, so we think the corn crop could be even bigger. But we don t want an argument, so we chose to use the industry standard of 85,000. Also, we are well aware of the fact that some of the ears that we counted were in blister and they could very well abort some kernels. In consideration of that, we took 8 rows off the top of all ears that had blistered kernels. It is not our first attempt to size a crop. We ve had very good success with our methods in past crop tours and we have a high level of confidence in the yields we are posting if current weather conditions persist. Enjoy our findings.

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4 LaSalle, Illinois 33,000 ears/acre 229 bu Muddy field conditions

5 El Paso, IL 33,000 ears/acre 216 bu Muddy, plenty of moisture

6 Piper City, IL 34,500 ears/acre 315 bu We used the same formula we used on every other field that we ve ever done. I have no explanation other than it s just that good. If you think it s crazy, so do we.

7 Remington, IN 32,000 ears/acre bu Plenty of moisture of here also Damp field

8 10 miles E of Logansport, IN 28,000 ears/acre bu This appeared to be the first field planted in this area and the emergence was poor and gappy The surrounding corn had a better stand

9 8 miles N of Kokomo, IN 33,000 ears/acre bu Just down the road from the last field that had the emergence issues

10 4 miles N of Kokomo, IN 30,000 ears/acre 213.7bu This ground is lighter soil and not the best ground.

11 5 Miles west of Indy on I -70 next a town 30,000 ears/acre 192 bu acre Right behind a truck stop, we had to stop for coffee so we thought we would check it since we were there. We normally wouldn t include a place like this because you never know if the soil has been moved in construction of the nearby truck stop.

12 Reelsville, Indiana 32,500 ears/acre bu acre

13 Paris, IL US 150 West 33,000 ears/acre Ground is wet bu

14 Tuscola, IL 31,000 Ears/Acre Blister bu

15 North of Tuscola, IL 5 Mi 33,000 ears/acre bu The check at Tuscola was in town, next to a truck stop, thought was low for the area. We rechecked as soon as we could, 40 bushel improvement. Thought soil was disturbed from last site due to construction in area.

16 Bondville, IL 35,000 Plants, 34,000 ears/acre due to green-snap bu

17 Clinton, IL 38,000 ears/acre 258 bu 20 inch rows We came across a field, with 36 inch rows, and we thought we did not want check it. So we walked across the road to check another field and it turned out to be this one. So we were excited, to be able to check and compare this to the wide rows.

18 Right across road from narrow rows, Clinton, IL 26,000 plants 26,000 ears/acre 36 in rows bu Well there is your comparison on 20 inch rows, the new modern row standard versus the old school 36 inch row, A 39 bu gain on the narrower row.

19 Mackinaw, IL 9:17 p.m. 35,000 ears/acre bu

20 North of Peoria, 5 miles Hwy bu 33,000 ears/acre

21 5 mi North Of Bradford, IL Hwy 40 34,000 ears/acre bu End of a very long day and concludes this leg of our crop tour. Now onto North Western Illinois, Iowa North of i-80, and Southern Minnesota and back down Western Iowa into Des Moines

22 Next Leg of Tour and explanation Before we continue on my next leg, I have some explaining to do. It is really hard to get anybody to go with me on the crop tours for a multitude of reasons. One is they are busy. Two is that not many enjoy it. The third reason is, people get very angry when your crop size does not match what they think it should be, or somehow you re letting the world know the crop is big or small, and you should not do that as crazy as that may seem. Many, many people refused to have their picture in comparison to the corn because they would lose customers or they would get verbally abused. So we solved that problem. Now you know the reason why we have our paper cut out. Here is my trip with no help.

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24 Prophetstown, Il 70 degrees, 5:19 am Route 78 & Bishop Road 33,000 ears/acre 217 bu Wet Soil

25 Fulton, IL 30,000 ears/acre bu

26 Grand Mound, IA Corn was just fancy 33,000 ears/acre 20 in rows 262 bu

27 Stanwood, IA 7:25 am HWY 30 & 38 33,000 ears/acre bu Wet Ground

28 Waterloo, IA 33,000 ears/acre bu

29 Williams, IA 34,000 ears/acre bu

30 Clear Lake, IA 11:14 pm Light Rain 32,500 ears/acre bu

31 Albert Lee, MN 125 St, 2:01 pm 32,500 ears/acre bu

32 Blue Earth, MN 34,000 ears/acre bu

33 Jackson, MN 34,000 ears/acre bu White silks, some yellowing in some fields due to denitrification This is the first area where I have seen anything other than excellent corn.

34 Spirit Lake, IA 36,000 plants bu

35 5 mi West Emmetsberg, IA 29,000 ears/acre bu Gappy stand

36 15 mi W of Algona, IA 32,000 ears/acre bu

37 15 mi North of Humbolt IA 33,000 ears/acre bu

38 Fort Dodge, IA 43,000 ears/acre bu I had to count this corn three times be fore I got it through my head it was actually that thick. It must have been some planter malfunction. And as I was coming out of the corn field, for the first time ever, the farmer who farmed the field was there. So I asked him what he planted the field at. He said 37,000 and I said it was a hell of a lot thicker than that. He said he hired someone to custom plant it and we both laughed. He asked me what I was doing, and I said I just trying to get a handle on the crop. And he said your not going to tell anyone are you? And we both laughed again. I asked if it was the best crop he ever had and he said hell yes.

39 Webster City, IA 29,000 ears/acre bu

40 Jewell, IA 24,000 ears/acre bu Green snapped

41 Jewell, IA 34,000 ears/acre bu across the road from Green Snapped Corn

42 Ames, IA 33,000 ears/acre bu

43 5 mi North Of Des Moines 29,000 ears/acre bu

44 The Third Leg of our trip, from Walnut IL, north to Janesville, down the south side of Wisconsin, back through Northern Illinois back through to Freeport

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46 Manlius, Il N. Ave 36,000 ears/acre bu 20 in Corn, FANCY

47 nd Ave, Walnut, IL 26,500 ears/acre bu population was gappy

48 Ohio, Il, 26 and 92 29,000 ears/acre bu

49 Mendota East 25 th St, 33,000 ears/acre bu

50 Paw Paw, IL 34,000 ears/acre bu

51 Near Rockford, Il 32,000 ears/acre bu Lighter soil

52 Harmony, Wi near Janesville 37,000 plants 35,000 ears/acre bu Probably corn for silage which had population high enough to finally cause some barren stalks

53 Vickerman Road, Fort Atkinson, WI 29,000 ears/acre bu Purposely looked for really sandy, poor looking field, believe me, no easy task, so we could try to established a bottom end in a poor area

54 Hwy 12 and 18 near Madison, Il 33,000 ears/acre bu No till corn on wheat stubble, and it didn t seem to work out as proven by the next field down the road

55 Right Down the road, near Madison 34,000 ears/acre bu

56 Mount Horeb, WI, Home of the JD Gator Non-GMO Corn 24,000 Plants 20,000 ears/acre bu Its been so long since I have seen corn bore damage, I have forgotten how devastating it is. Not only is it broken off below the ear in places, the ears that are left are only 12 around. So now off to find a field close by with GMO

57 Mt. Horeb, 30,000 ears/acre bu

58 Dodgeville WI, 31,000 ears/acre bu

59 Darlington, WI 33,000 plants, bu 30,000 ears/acre

60 Shullsburg, WI bu 37,000 Plants 34,000 ears/acre

61 Stockton, Il bu 36,000 plants 35,000 ears/acre

62 Harland Center Road, Freeport IL 35,000 plants 33,000 ears/acre bu

63 This is the fourth and final leg of the trip. Started in Galesburg, west central Illinois and to within 40 miles east of Omaha; then north 40 miles, and back on I-80 East to Northern Illinois.

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65 4 mi NE of Kewanee, IL 33,000 ears/acre bu

66 West of Monmouth, Il one mile on Hwy 34 32,000 ears/acre 211 bu Corn slightly twisted up,

67 Lock Ridge, IA 30,000 ears/acre 185 bu Hilly type ground, talked with farmer at gas station for a country minute, Farmer said his yield potential will beat last years average

68 Albia, IA 36 in Rows 29,000 ears/acre bu

69 Russell, IA 33,000 ears/acre 222 bu Slight Goose necking in corn

70 Creston, IA 30,000 ears/acre bu

71 Villisca, IA 33,000 ears/acre 246 bu

72 Ridge Water, IA 31,000 ears/acre 236 bu No-till farm

73 Winterset, IA 31,000 ears/acre 221 bu

74 Patterson, IA 35,000 ears/acre 195 bu

75 Pleasant Hill, IA 34,000 ears/acre 256 bu

76 Prairie City, IA 30,000 ears/acre 252 bu

77 Newton, IA 34,000 ears/acre 204 bu Wheat Stubble

78 Malcom, IA 35,0000 ears/acre 232 bu

79 Williamsburg, IA 34,500 ears/acre 231 bu

80 West Branch, IA 36,000 ears/acre 20 Inch rows bu

81 Walcott, IA 32,000 ears/acre 238 bu

82 Geneseo, IL 33,000 ears/acre bu

83 Closing Statement When we travel from field to field, we are always looking at the fields we drive by. Never have I seen so much perfect corn. It is level across the top, with no yellowing, and leaves from top to bottom. There are almost no pond holes anywhere and no rolled or burned off corn or corn under stress, and very, very little disease. It is unheard of in driving through 2,900 miles of corn. Also, as of late, I am hearing all kinds of noise about tip back. Seriously, tip back does not mean poor corn. It can mean poor corn, but it is not absolute. If you don t plant until you get some tip back, you probably did not plant enough seed. We also dismiss the argument regarding how three 90 degree days and three nights above 70 degrees would reduce yield when water is not a factor. The weather has been quite consistent across all sample locations as well as the locations I didn t get to. So why wouldn t yields be consistent across the board? If weather continues as it has been, all the areas I have been in will have record crops. As always, all locations are fairly well defined. If you don t believe me, you can drive out there and look at it yourself. James McCune cropveritas@gmail.com

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