U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Update

Transcription

1 U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Update 2015 Summer Meeting and Technical Conference JULY 31 Mark Hodges Plains Grains, Inc.

2 Overview 2015 HRW wheat crop early information Growing conditions and production outlook Southern Plains (Oklahoma/Texas) ; Kansas; Northern plains; the PNW Quality data Charts and maps Summary

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4 US HRW Production Region Source US Wheat Associates

5 Now for the 2014/15 crop

6 Right After We Review the 2012/2013 & 2013/2014 Crops Drought Quote... During the drought and the dust storms of the 1930s a Colorado rancher reportedly said, The only difference between the Great Plains and the Sahara Desert is a bunch of damned fools aren t trying to farm the Sahara Desert."

7 2012/13 HRW OLD Crop Quality Proteins averaged mostly over 12.5% (but over 13.5% in the Gulf Tributary states). Wide variability from region to region (the west vs. the I-35 corridor (i.e.wichita) and the northern/northwestern US) Drought stressed conditions resulted in lower production southern plains with higher proteins. (don t lose that thought ) Test weights & TKW s lower on average HRW Strength and volume were average to slightly lower. U.S. Mills watched springs/winter relationship. Winter wheat substituted spring wheat or vice versa New crop transitions later than normal.

8 Southern HRW growing areas ground zero for 2014 drought.

9 2014 HRW Crop Conditions Most areas had good moisture at planting. Acceptable stands. Mostly good secondary root systems. Close to average number of acres were grazed. Late hard freeze in southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas did varying degrees of damage. Wheat that was headed had the least damage. Later wheat had the most damage and did not show up for over 2 weeks following the freeze. Crop conditions continued to decline during critical filling period. Wide spread dry conditions from Western Ks to Central KS USDA weekly crop ratings were 2 nd worst Kansas on record

10 2015 HRW Crop Conditions Most areas had good moisture at planting. Acceptable stands. Mostly good secondary root systems. Close to average number of acres were grazed. Late hard freeze in southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas did varying degrees of damage. Wheat that was headed had the least damage. Later wheat had the most damage and did not show up for over 2 weeks (or more) following the freeze. Crop conditions continued to decline during critical filling period. Wide spread dry conditions from Western Ks to Central KS USDA weekly crop ratings were 2 nd worst Kansas on record

11 2014 HRW Crop Conditions Crop was 2-3 weeks behind, but caught up rapidly. Record heat first of May. Then record rainfall in June caused harvest delays. Harvest faced many challenges. Rains in panhandles, central Oklahoma and Kansas delayed cutting. Lack of custom cutters due to poor prospects. Overall, rains affected timing of harvest

12 2015 HRW Crop Conditions Crop was 2-3 weeks behind, but caught up rapidly. Record heat first of May. Then record rainfall in June caused harvest delays. Harvest faced many challenges. Rains in panhandles, central Oklahoma and Kansas delayed cutting. Lack of custom cutters due to poor prospects. Overall, rains affected timing of harvest

13 60-Day Observed Precipitation 7/22/2014

14 NWS 30 Day Observed Precipitation June 3, 2015

15 Drought in the Southern HRW growing areas started to shrink by the end of September 2014

16 Drought in the Southern HRW growing areas had all but disappeared by mid June 2015

17 2015 HRW Harvest Activity: Central/Southern U.S.

18 2015 Southern Plains

19 2015 Southern Plains

20 Kansas Outlook

21 2015 HRW Harvest Activity: Northern U.S.

22 Colo., Neb., Dakotas, Wy., Mont. and PNW HRW Colorado benefitted from late rains production 88 million bu. 3% increase Nebraska million bu Down 23% South Dakota million bu Down 34% Montana 94 mi bu Up 3% hot weather could damage crop

23 Colo., Neb., Dakotas, Wy., Mont. and PNW HRW (repeat of 2014) Wyoming 7 million bu. Down 1% North Dakota 12 mi bu Down 56% Acres down 58% PNW, much like Montana could suffer some damage due to 100 degree plus temperatures during the later stages of crop development. Harvest has begun in some limited areas of all 3 states. Hail storms have caused losses as well. Crop maturity/harvest well ahead of schedule.

24 Interactive Maps Protein Test Weight TKW Moisture Dockage Harvest updates posted on US Wheat Associates website uswheat.org

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26 2015 Gulf Tributary HRW Grade Distribution* *Partial *Partial

27 2015 Gulf HRW Evaluation based on individual protein samples* *Partial Low Protein Medium Protein High Protein - Represents all samples less than 11.5% protein*. (10%) Represents all samples between 11.5% and 12.5% protein*. (44%) Represents all samples greater than 12.5% protein*. (46%) *12% Moisture Basis

28 2015* Gulf HRW Wheat Grade Data *Partial Low Med High Year Test Weight (lb/bu) (kg/hl) Damaged Kernels (%) Foreign Material (%) Shrunken & Broken (%) Total Defects (%)

29 2015*/2014/2013/2012/2011/2010 Gulf HRW Test Weight Dist. (lb/bu) *Partial

30 2015*/2014/2013/2012/2011/2010 Gulf HRW Test Weight Dist. (kg/hl) *Partial

31 2015*/2014/2013/2012/2011/2010 Gulf HRW TKW Distribution *Partial

32 2015* Gulf HRW Wheat Non-Grade Data *Partial Low Med High Year Dockage (%) Moisture (%) Protein (12% mb) (0% mb) Ash (14% mb) (0% mb)

33 2015*/2014/2013/2012/2011/2010 Gulf HRW Protein Distribution *Partial

34 2015 PARTIAL Gulf HRW Wheat Non-Grade Data Low Med High Year Thousand Kernel Wt. (g) Kernel Diameter (mm) Sedimentation (cc) - Falling Number (sec)

35 Summary U.S. HRW story is short production year on year on year due to drought in some states coupled with hot weather during grainfill (northern and PNW states), hail and STRIPE RUST (southern and central Plains). Even with the shorter crop and challenges, there will be milling wheat available. Early bake data. Protein quantity is available. Protein quality will be lower than the last 2 years. Year of the BLENDER Wheat plantings to begin in 45 days El Nino?

36 2015 HRW WHEAT QUALITY SURVEY The data contained in this presentation were collected, tested and analyzed by PLAINS GRAINS, INC., an organization of the HRW States of Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, South Dakota, Montana, Washington, Oregon, Idaho and North Dakota in cooperation with USDA- ARS Hard Winter Wheat Quality Laboratory, Manhattan, Kansas. For more detailed information about the 2014 HRW crop go to: