Progress in Latent Heat Nudging Real Case Studies
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1 Progress in Latent Heat Nudging Real Case Studies RADVOR-OP, supported by LAWA Stefan Klink FE 12 Data Assimilation
2 Progress in Latent Heat Nudging Real Case Studies Radar Data Humidity Adjustment Filtering of Vertical Profiles Real Case Studies Results and Future Work
3 Radar Data Input data currently used radar reflectivity at the ground (int. Composite: Germany and surrounding countries) pixel size: 4km 4km time resolution: 15 minutes (data from volume scan) conversion: reflectivity to precipitation rate by simple Z-R-relation problems: clutter, only 7 reflectivity classes
4 Radar Data new radar data preliminary product of the project RADOLAN input data: reflectivities from precipitation scan, mesh: 1km 1, time resolution: 5 minutes correction of orographic attenuation variable Z-R-relation compositing interpolation to the LM grid access: offline still incomplete clutter correction
5 Humidity Adjustment Increased heating increase q to reach f=100% over nudging timescale τ Reduced heating decrease q (maintain f)
6 Humidity Adjustment Convective event on 28. Aug over western Germany LM run on a domain: with 361 x 441 grid points covering almost Germany with mesh size 2.8 km convective parameterisation scheme switched off laterally driven by GME 6h Nudging + LHN adjustment of humidity during LHN 6h free forecast
7 Humidity Adjustment Hourly sums of modeled and radarobserved precipitatio n in mm/h Nudging UTC Nudging UTC
8 Humidity Adjustment free forecast UTC
9 Filtering of Vertical Profiles Frontal case on July 10th 2002 (Berlin thunderstorm) LM run (operational domain): mesh size 7 km convective parameterisation scheme switched off 3h Nudging + LHN starting at 9 UTC no filtering of T-increments: humidity adjustment no humidity adjustment filtering of T-increments: humidity adjustment no humidity adjustment
10 Filtering of Vertical Profiles No filtering of T-increments, vertical cross section W-E, t = 11 UTC specific cloud liquid water content in g/kg humidity adjustment no humidity adjustment
11 Filtering of Vertical Profiles Filtering of T-increments, vertical cross section W-E, t = 11 UTC specific cloud liquid water content in g/kg humidity adjustment no humidity adjustment
12 Filtering of Vertical Profiles Increased heating increase q to reach f=100% over nudging timescale τ subsaturated air no precipitation saturated air no precipitation LHN saturated air precipitation Reduced heating decrease q (maintain f) subsaturated air no precipitation saturated air no precipitation saturated air precipitation LHN Need for additional humidity information, e.g. satellite cloud data
13 Case Studies: convective event Deep convection on the afternoon of 28.Aug over western Germany LM run on the operational domain: mesh size 7 km convective parameterisation scheme switched off CTRL: 6h Nudging starting at 6 UTC 6h free forecast laterally driven by GME LHN: 6h Nudging + LHN 6h free forecast laterally driven by GME
14 Case Studies: convective event Hourly sums of modeled and radarobserved precipitation in mm/h Nudging UTC Nudging UTC
15 Case Studies: convective event Nudging UTC free forecast UTC
16 Case Studies: convective event free forecast UTC free forecast UTC
17 Case Studies: comparison: convective precipitation with and without convective parameterisation scheme Convective event on 28. Aug over western Germany LM run on the operational domain: mesh size 7 km with convective parameterisation scheme: (middle column) 6h Nudging + LHN starting at 6 UTC no adjustment of humidity during LHN 6h free forecast laterally driven by GME convective parameterisation scheme switched on without convective parameterisation scheme: (left column) the same as above, but convective parameterisation scheme switched off
18 Case Studies: comparison: convective parameterisation scheme Hourly sums of modeled and radarobserved precipitation in mm/h Nudging UTC Nudging UTC
19 Case Studies: comparison: convective parameterisation scheme Nudging UTC free forecast UTC
20 Case Studies: comparison: convective parameterisation scheme free forecast UTC free forecast
21 Case Studies: comparison: mesh sizes 7 km and 2.8 km Convective event on 28. Aug over western Germany LM run on the operational domain: convective parameterisation scheme switched off LHN 7 km: 6h Nudging + LHN adjustment of humidity during LHN 6h free forecast laterally driven by GME mesh size 7 km LHN 2.8 km: the same as above, but mesh size 2.8 km (smaller model domain)
22 Case Studies: comparison: mesh sizes 7 km and 2.8 km Hourly sums of modeled and radarobserved precipitatio n in mm/h Nudging UTC Nudging UTC
23 Case Studies: comparison: mesh sizes 7 km and 2.8 km Nudging UTC free forecast UTC
24 Case Studies: comparison: mesh sizes 7 km and 2.8 km free forecast UTC free forecast UTC
25 Results and Future Work Results: explicit simulation of convection produces more realistic patterns and amounts of precipitation than the corresponding model run with a parameterisation scheme adjustment of humidity supports the assimilation of precipitation and leads to more exact free forecasts model with 2.8 km mesh size shows potential for further improvements of precipitation forecast sporadical occurrence of spurious precipitation influence of the assimilation lasts for several hours
26 Results and Future Work Problems concerning LHN: numerical problems with noisy profiles of latent heat (2 zstructures) adjustment of humidity during LHN quality of radar data improvements to extend the influence of assimilation during free model run
27 Results and Future Work Outlook: investigations concerning: changes of stability of the T-profile caused by LHN humidity adjustment use of radar data with time resolution of 5 minutes prognostic precipitation two further scientists in the Aktionsprogramm 2003: tasks: preparation of radar data for assimilation investigation of latent heat nudging
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