ALARO experience in Romania
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1 ALARO experience in Romania S. Briceag, M. Pietrisi, S. Tascu, A. Craciun, R. Iordache National Meteorological Administration, Romania
2 Operational model setup ALARO cy36t1: 1 January March 2016 ALARO cy40t1 after 1 April , 06, 12, 18 UTC, forecast range 78/54/66/54 hours dynamical adaptation mode, DFI initialization semi-implicit semi-lagrangian 2TL advection, t=240 s physical parameterizations : ALARO-0 baseline 240x240 grid points, 6.5 km horizontal resolution, Lambert projection 60 levels, vertical finite element LBCs from ARPEGE, 3h coupling frequency hourly output, in-line Fullpos post-processing in lat-lon grid
3 Test configuration: ALARO-1vA cy38t1: Running on 16 processors on the old IBM platform, but the results differ (not significantly) when the same run is repeated On more than 16 processors, the integration is crashing in a Fullpos interpolation subroutine ALARO-1vA cy40t1: Tested on the new IBM platform on 3 nodes (36 processors) and 1 node (12 processors), but also crashing in a Fullpos interpolation subroutine Observations: Data from synop and hydro stations, rain gauges and radar are used.
4 UTC UTC The intense precipitation nucleus situated at the curvature of Carpathians was underestimated by both model versions (regarding both area and amount). The observations in the South-Eastern Romania show a value of 146 l/mp in 24 hours (measured by the rain gauges), but we question the validity of this value. The predicted value (41 l/mp oper and 51 l/mp ALARO1) was lower than obs. The model also simulates an intense nucleus (75 l/mp oper and 39 l/mp ALARO1) which is much lower in observations (16 l/mp). The area free of precipitation in the Southern part of Romania was well predicted by both models ( slightly better by ALARO1) Synoptic situation: Convection due to a warm and very humid air mass advection from South and South-West, sustained in the mid and upper troposphere by a through with a West-East axis. In the next hours, the through in the upper air deepens and extends towards the Western part of Romania. The PV anomaly coming from South-West triggers convection cell formation.
5 UTC UTC Both models simulated well the precipitation field, but the operational version was slightly better in the Eastern half (at the curvature of Carpathians). The very intense observed precipitation nucleus in the Fagaras mountains (105 l/mp) was severely underestimated by the model (oper: l/mp, ALARO1: l/mp) regarding both the area and the amount. Synoptic situation: A cut-off separates from the through in the Western part of Romania, sustaining the development of new convective cells.
6 UTC UTC The precipitation area in the South Central part of Romania (up to 48 l/mp in observations) was very well predicted by the coupling model ARPEGE (40 50 l/mp). Synoptic situation: The Scandinavian blocking affects most of Europe. The North-European ridge brings rather cool and dry air over Northern and Eastern part of Romania, but the South-Western circulation continues in the rest of the country.
7 UTC UTC The precipitation area in the South Central part of Romania (up to 48 l/mp in observations) was missed by both model versions. Oper model positioned the nucleus too South, in Bulgaria. ALARO1 was better in positioning the nucleus (57 l/mp). The precipitation nucleus in the South-Western part of the country was too intense in ALARO1 (73 l/mp compared to 40 l/mp in oper and observations).
8 UTC UTC The precipitation area in the South-Central part of the country was well positioned by both model versions, but the amount was underestimated by operational version; ALARO1 predicted better the position and the amount of the nuclei. The extreme South-Eastern nucleus (51 l/mp in observations) was underestimated by models. Synoptic situation: The through from the South-West Russia extends over Romania,maintaining the South-Western circulation.
9 Completely missed night convection in the Bucharest area: UTC UTC Synoptic situation: A mid and upper troposphere trough from central Europe moves Eastwards. The Southern end of the trough develops a cut-off and becomes a cold pool. Advection of this cold air at upper levels, over a very warm air mass at surface in the extra-carpathian regions triggered night convection. A slow cold front, mainly over Western Romania produced some precipitation in this area.
10 Completely missed night convection in the Bucharest area: UTC UTC The operational model completely missed the precipitation around Bucharest area (where the observed maximum reached 64 l/m2 ) and in the South of Moldavia (54 l/m2 ) All the convective cells developed in the Eastern Carpathians were underestimated (the maximum observed precipitations was 79 l/m2 )
11 Completely missed night convection in the Bucharest area: UTC UTC The ALARO operational model is too dry in the extra-carpathian region!
12 Thank you for your attention!
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