The inevitable partial collapse of an American pika metapopulation Easton R. White and John D. Nagy
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1 The inevitable partial collapse of an American pika metapopulation Easton R. White and John D. Nagy University of California, Davis Arizona State University Scottsdale Community photo credit: Sally King
2 Question: What drives population dynamics of animals in a spatially-structured environment? photo credit: Per Breiehagen from Ding et al 2013 ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
3 More specifically: What drives local extinction events? Demographic stochasticity Environmental noise Large perturbations Dispersal limitations Landscape heterogeneity Spatial structure ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
4 More specifically: What drives local extinction events? Demographic stochasticity Environmental noise Large perturbations Dispersal limitations Landscape heterogeneity Spatial structure ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
5 This led us to think about systems that were spatially structured, heterogeneous, and with data available... Hanski 1998 ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
6 American pika (Ochotona princeps) Order: Lagomorpha ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
7 American pika (Ochotona princeps) Order: Lagomorpha Body size: mm ( in), Weight 170 g ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
8 American pika (Ochotona princeps) Order: Lagomorpha Body size: mm ( in), Weight 170 g Have one successful litter a year, Litter size: 3-4 ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
9 American pika (Ochotona princeps) Order: Lagomorpha Body size: mm ( in), Weight 170 g Have one successful litter a year, Litter size: 3-4 Both sexes are territorial and make calls and hay piles to mark territories ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
10 American pika (Ochotona princeps) Order: Lagomorpha Body size: mm ( in), Weight 170 g Have one successful litter a year, Litter size: 3-4 Both sexes are territorial and make calls and hay piles to mark territories Only juveniles disperse (limited to <300 meters) ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
11 Range in western North America ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
12 Range in western North America ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
13 Bodie study site ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
14 Bodie study site ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
15 Bodie study site Pikas inhabited ore dumps left by gold mines around 1900 Metapopulation of pikas formed Set number of territories per patch strong density effects Studied nearly continuously since the 1970s The southern half of the population went extinct by 1990 Why? ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
16 Year in the life of a pika Over- winter mortality Reproduc,on Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Demographic stochasticity with: Binomial process for mortality Empirical distribution for births Multinomial process for dispersal Frac,on p juveniles disperse Frac,on (1- p) juveniles stay on natal patch Jun Compe,,on for territories Jul Census Popula,on Aug ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
17 Spatial structure ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
18 Comparison to field data Total Time (years) ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
19 Comparison to field data North Total Time (years) South Time (years) ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
20 What about local extinction? ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
21 Comparison to field data North Total Time (years) South Time (years) ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
22 Southern Extinction Density Year ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
23 What drove the southern extinction? Patch heterogeneity? Distribution of patches in the south versus the north? We can use our model to test these ideas... ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
24 Spatial structure 1 Distances between patches are closer in the North by 70 meters on average 2 Patch sizes are close to twice as large in North ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
25 What drove the southern extinction? Patch heterogeneity Patch homogeneity Year of southern collapse Bodie spatial structure Model setup No spatial structure ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
26 Summing up The model is able to predict a number of events that past metapopulation models have not been able to capture. Typically past work has simply identified the North as being more stable The south may have collapsed because of the spatial structure of Bodie and local population dynamics don t need to invoke more complicated mechanisms (climate, predation, inbreeding, vegetation, talus suitability, high summer temperatures, environmental noise) ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
27 Future work Evolutionary framework- evolution of dispersal Different dispersal functions Applying model to other metapopulations ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
28 Acknowledgments Andrew Smith Other members of the Evolutionary Dynamics Lab, SCC/ASU SOLUR program in the School of Life Sciences, ASU Theory Group at University of California, Davis photos by Sally King and John Nagy ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
29 ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
30 Inverse modeling framework weaning mortality probability dispersal mortality probability 0 ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
31 Long term trends- 18% of runs extinct in 300 years Total population size (# of individuals) Total North South Time (years) ER White & JD Nagy Metapopulation dynamics of pikas August 12, / 26
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