Rainfall Performance in Somalia - Gu 2013 Issued July 12, 2013

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1 Rainfall Performance in Somalia - Gu 213 Issued July 12, 213 Normal to above normal rains recorded in most parts of Somalia Executive Summary The Gu 213 season started off well in advance in many parts of the country during the third dekad of March and continued to spread spatially in the first and second dekads of April. The rainy season was generally good in most parts of the country with many places recording normal to above normal rains. The rains were well received by many people because the country had been experiencing below normal conditions for the past three years. This Gu season's performance was much better than the previous rainy season (Deyr 212). This came as a relief for many people who experienced the 21/11 famine conditions in parts of the country. During the first half of April, some areas especially in southern parts received very heavy rains that led to flooding causing destruction and loss of property. Figure 1: Rainfall Performance for March to June 213 In general the good rains led to improved soil moisture conditions that were favourable for both crops and pasture growth. Enhanced rains also led to replenishment of water reservoirs. However, negative impacts were also felt such as floods and displacement of people and destruction of properties, infrastructure and loss of livestock. Several places in the northern parts of the country recorded depressed rains including Awdal region, northern coastal areas, east of Sool and Sanaag regions and the entire Bari region. Other places that recorded low rains in the south include upper parts of Hiraan, Bakool and Gedo regions as seen in Figure 1. Start and end of the Gu 213 rainy season The Gu rainy season occurs in the period between March and June and is marked as the primary cropping season in Somalia. The season starts and ends at different times throughout the country. In the areas bordering Kenya, Middle Juba, northern parts of Middle Shabelle and the northwest corner of the country, the Gu rains starts as early as the second half of March. The rains then intensify in April all over the country. The length of the season also varies across the country from year to year. The north eastern coastline receives the least amount of rainfall during this season while the southern parts receive the highest amount of cumulative rains in the season. Rainfall ceases in June in most parts of the country except for the southern coastline which continues to receive little but significant rains in the months of July and August (Hagga rains). In the north western parts of the country the rains extend to combine with the Deyr rains (locally known as the Karan) which start in September thus exposing the area to an apparent long continuous rainy season. This update is produced by: FAO Somalia Water and Land Information Management SWALIM Project in collaboration with the FAO Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) and FEWS NET Somalia. For more information regarding this product please contact SO hydro@fao.org or visit 1

2 During the Gu 213,some areas had an early start of the rains which kicked off in the third dekad of March 213. These areas include most parts of the northern regions and Hiraan, Middle and Lower Shabelle, Bay, Bakool and most parts of Galgaduud and Mudug regions. Elsewhere, the rains started during the first dekad of April. During the Gu 213,some areas had an early start of the rains which kicked off in the third dekad of March 213. These areas include most parts of the northern regions and Hiraan, Middle and Lower Shabelle, Bay, Bakool and most parts of Galgaduud and Mudug regions. Elsewhere, the rains started during the first dekad of April. There was also an early cessation of the rains in the south and central parts of the country during the first dekad of May. However, the northern parts continued to receive rain in the month of May and June but with lesser intensity. This is normal at this time of the year for these area as well as the southern coastal areas to receive rains which are locally known as Haggai rains. Rainfall performance in Somalia Several places in the southern parts of the country received good rains. The sorghum belt of Bay and Bakool, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba regions which are known as the bread basket of the country received the highest amounts of rains which was well over % above normal. The good rains are expected to boost crop production in these regions. However, the parts bordering Kenya and Ethiopia recorded below normal rains, specifically, Luuq in Gedo region, Ceel Barde in Huduur region and Belet Weyne in Hiran. Figure 2 shows the Gu 213 cumulative rainfall amounts compared to the Long Term Mean () for the same season. Cummulative Figure 2: Gu 213 Rainfall Performance Compared to in South & Central Somalia Gu 213 Gu Baidoa Diinsor Bardheere Luuq Belet weyne Bulo burti Jowhar Galkayo Bualle Jamame Compared to the south and central parts of the country, the northern regions recorded relatively less rains in terms of quantity and spatial distribution. The middle parts of Sool and Sanaag regions are the only parts that received significant good rains within the season. The rest of the region recorded normal to below normal rains. However, there was a general improvement of crop and pasture growth in many areas. Figure 3 shows the Gu 213 rainfall performance of some stations in the north compared to the long term mean (). Figure 4 displays comparisons of cumulative rainfall for 213, 212 for selected station across the country. It is clear that 213 Gu seasonal rainfall was much better in terms of quantity than that of Gu 212. Figure 3: Gu 213 Rainfall Performance Compared to in Northern Somalia Cummulative Gu 213 Gu 2

3 Figure 4: Cumulative rainfall for selected stations in Somalia comparing 213, 212 and the Belet Weyne Rainfall(mm) Luuq Luuq Jowhar Baidoa Bardheere Bardera Galckayo Borama Borama Hargeisa Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Floods and water resources The heavy rains seen during the Gu 213 rainy season led to increased river levels along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. Floods were reported in several locations along the two rivers with Jowhar town and its environs being the worst affected as seen in Table 1. Flash floods were also reported in the seasonal steams in Somaliland and Puntland leading to disruption of road transport. While bringing relief to dry conditions, the intense rains led to flooding, damaged crops of an estimated total area of 6,397ha, displacement of about 5, people and seven children were drowned in Wanle Weyne district. According to FSNAU the post Gu harvest of cereal is expected to be below average due to the floods and other factors such as early cessation of the long rainy season. Pastoral livelihoods are likely to see improved food security as a result of the well watered rangelands and water availability which will result in improved milk production in lactating animals. 3

4 Table 1: Shabelle and Juba Riverine Basin Population Displacement Estimates during the Gu 213 seasonal rains Impact of the Floods Report Status District Damages (Farms, Crops, Wells, river banks, etc) Estimated Population displacement Cummulative population Current population as of: 9/5/ Confirmed 2. Not confirmed 3. Pending confirmation Comments Jowhar A. (i) Crops affected: maize, Sesame and cowpea (ii) Crops affected: maize, Sesame and cowpea (ii) River brekage (iii) Damaged crop area :Tugarey-89ha, Bardhere 6ha B. (i) Crops affected (ii) Damage to roads (iii) Others: Loss of household items. C. (i) Crops affected Note: Estimated total damaded crop area: 4857 ha 444 HH A. 11 HH B. 2 HH C HH B.1 C.1 A. River flooding in 1st Dekad of April affected Gashanle, Eji, Bardhere, Hurway, Mandhere, Gumbe, and Baro-weyne and Timire villages. River bank breakage, crop destroyed and unconfirmed displacement reported. Tugarey and Bardhere villages are the most affected B. 2nd Dekad of April flash due to heavy rains in Jowhar affected Horseed, Hantiwadag, Kulmis and Bulo Sheik settlements. Families moved to safe areas and finaly to relatives and friends. Waterlooging led to damage of roads hampering free movements of people and livestock causing rise of food commodity prices. C. 3rd Dekad of April, river flooding persisted in Jowhar heading towards Balad Settlements. Mandhere breakage is still open. Some neiboring villages can only be assesed by boats. Note: Other villages affected by river flooding in April iclude: Magey,Mandhere,Daymasame,Bacadley,Bodale,Jilale,Towfiq,Baqdad, Xanoley,Kalundi,Gumbe,Baareey,Barow,weyne,Magadleey,Gaafay,Liin ta,raqayle,mayungale,jowhar,banaaney,raqaylow,xawaadleey,shanl ow,dhagaxow and Yaaqle villages Baidoa A.) Others: Household assets and Pit latrines 15 - HH A HH A. Heavy rainfall in the 1st and 2nd Dekad of April lead to flash floods in Baidoa district in the villages of Yasin, Masubiye, Titinley and Kormary. Affected communities are now residing in ADC(Agricultural Development Cooperation). Adjacent vilages of Bonka, Idaale, 11 January and Hanano have been identified to be at risk of flooding. Flooding is attributed to poor town planning and dumping of solid waste in streams. Burhakaba Qansax Dheere A.(i) Others: Household assets (ii) Crops destroyed A. Flash floods have affected dwellings in Habaal barbaar, Gorisane, Hagarka and Manyow in the 1st and 2nd Dekad of April. Kurtunwaarey A. (i) Crops affected: Sesame and vegetable (ii) Damaged crop area : ha (iii) Roads: some rendered impassable (iv)river breakage : around Geeral matukadi canal in Al-Futow vilage B. (i) Crops affected Note: Estimated total damaded crop area: 642 ha 12 HH 12 HH B.1 A. Flash flood occurred in the 3rd dekad of March. The communities in Towfig villages resulted to breakage of river embankments to avoid further damages downstream. Water advancing to Duuray and Shanta muki villages. B. 3rd Dekad of April, river flooding reported. More information to follow Note: Other villages affected by river flooding in April iclude:doora, General Matukade canal area,alla- Fuutow,Aroos Eber,Afgooye yare,uraanurow,bananey,garawlaay,aflaw,muruqmaal Wanlaweyne A. (i) Crops affected: Sesame. (ii) Damaged crop area : 1 ha (iii) Others: residential houses, business centers and pit latrines - 1 HH A. - 1 HH A. 1 A. Flash floods destroyed sesame crop in some villages in the 3rd dekad of March. Baaran, Cagobooray and Malable villages affected. Affected people moved to higer areas in Bakaal Caanole and Xudur Jadiid in the town. Baardheere A. Temporal displacement of a few HH in Bardheere town and sorrounding A. 1 A. Heavy rains in Gedo region that led to localised floods in Bardheere and sorrounding. No rivrline flooding. TOTAL Working assumptions: Displaced population defined as direct displacement through flood inundation Displaced population calculated by multiplying the number of hh's by hh size of 6 If a range is provided to quantify displacement the upper figure is used The floods in Southern Somalia began in mid April causing extreme human suffering and economic damage. Factors other than weather played a role in causing the increased flooding. Alterations in the natural environment contribute to the increased frequency of floods in Somalia by increasing erosion rates that result in river bed sedimentation. This makes rivers shallower causing floods to occur even with low amounts of rainfall. Another key contribution that lead to floods year after year is the deliberate cutting of river banks by communities for irrigation purposes during low rainy seasons which they do not close when the heavy rains begin to fall. Galckayo in the central parts of the country also witnessed heavy rains in the first half of April leading to flash floods in the area. The north eastern parts observed unusual heavy rains during the third dekad of March that also led to flash floods. The water resources sector also benefited from the good rains in that there was increased river flow along the Juba and Shabelle rivers which was good for irrigation, livestock and domestic use. The rains were also good for ground water recharge in several places especially where there were rainfall deficits during the last rainy season. However, in Somalia, such heavy rainfalls are usually associated with degradation of water quality due to high sedimentation. Figure 5 and 6 shows the current observed river levels at Belet Weyne (upper Shabelle) and Luuq (upper Juba) respectively. Two peaks were realised along the two rivers the first being in mid April and the other in mid May followed by a decrease of river levels following the cessation of the rains. 4

5 Figure 5: Observed River levels along Shabelle River at Belet Weyne Water Level (m) Historical Maximum Historical Minimum Long Term Mean Critical Level Bank Full Level Flooding Level Figure 6: Observed River levels along Juba River at Luuq Water Level (m) Historical Maximum Historical Minimum Long Term Mean Bankfull Level Critical Level Flooding Level This update is produced by: FAO Somalia Water and Land Information Management SWALIM Project in collaboration with the FAO Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) and FEWS NET Somalia. For more information regarding this product please contact SO or visit 5