Past (LGM) and future wind changes over the Southern Ocean
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1 Past (LGM) and future wind changes over the Southern Ocean Yann Chavaillaz, Francis Codron, Masa Kageyama LMD / LOCEAN / LSCE - IPSL Paris, France Chavaillaz et al. (213), Climate of the Past
2 Ø Wind changes over the Southern Ocean have global impacts Increased upwelling: AdvecMon of warm water VenMlaMon of CO 2 - rich deep waters Ø DeglaciaMon, future changes? Westerlies ACC
3 VenMlaMon du CO 2 : Rôle des vents d ouest dans la déglaciamon? CO 2 (p.p.m.v.) a Proxy global temperature (C) Global T AntarcMc T 1 1 Antarctic composite (σ) 18 4 LGM OD B A YD Holocene Age (kyr) (Shakun et al 212) Ø AntarcMc T et CO 2 précèdent réchauffement global
4 LETTER Eau profonde plus chaude: déstabilisamon de glaciers AntarcMques? RESEARCH V LA LB A C PI LC km TH 68 S 7 S.3 m yr 1.3 m yr 1 45 m 725 m 128 W CSB D CR G DV 141 W L N SZ 154 W ΔT/Δt 3 m yr 1 3 m yr 1 45 m 725 m Pritchard et al (212) W 15 km Figure 4 Ice-shelf DT/Dt on the A ice shelves are the former Larsen A (G6), Wilkins (W) and Stange (ST
5 RelaMon between westerly jet variability and surface winds Anomalies linked with a poleward shic of the jet (SAM): Pressure LaMtude Zonal- mean zonal wind surface wind stress Ø Poleward jet shi] = stronger Southern Ocean westerly winds
6 Ø The data for LGM are inconclusive: Indirect proxies and evidence From Kohfeld et al (213), Quaternary Science Reviews: «Our comparison suggests that an overall strengthening, an equatorward displacement, or no change at all in winds could all be interpreted as consistent with observamons We contend that resolving the posimon and strength of westerly winds during the LGM remains elusive based on data reconstrucmons alone.»
7 Modelling study: PMIP3 / CMIP5 Ensemble 6 Coupled atmosphere / ocean /sea ice GCMs : IPSL, CNAM, NCAR, MPI, MIROC, GISS Prescribed CO 2, ice sheets, orbital parameters (stamonnary) Past LGM PI Control Future RCP 4.5 last glacial maximum (- 21 kyr) ice sheets 185 ppm CO 2 Pre- industrial condimons Future scenario, late 21 st century 278 ppm CO ppm CO 2 Ø All plots shown correspond to a warming: deglaciamon or future change.
8 85- hpa zonal wind PI LGM IPSL 2 S 4 S 6 S 8 S 9 E RCP PI IPSL 18 E 9 W 2 S 4 S 6 S 8 S 9 E PI LGM NCAR 2 S 4 S 6 S 8 S 9 E 18 E 9 W 2 S 4 S 6 S 8 S 9 E 9 E 18 E 9 W 2 S 4 S 6 S 8 S 9 E PI LGM MPI 2 S 4 S 6 S 8 S 9 E 9 E 18 E 9 W 2 S 4 S 6 S 8 S 9 E 9 E 9 W 18 E 9 W 18 E 9 W 18 E 18 E 9 W 9 W 9 W RCP PI CNRM 2 S 4 S 6 S 8 S 9 E PI LGM GISS 2 S 4 S 6 S 8 S 18 E RCP PI MPI PI LGM CNRM 2 S 4 S 6 S 8 S RCP PI MIROC 18 E RCP PI GISS 9 W 2 S 4 S 6 S 8 S 9 E [m/s] Past changes 9 W RCP PI NCAR PI LGM MIROC 2 S 4 S 6 S 8 S 18 E E Future changes
9 Summary of near- surface wind changes Zonal- averages, 85- hpa 4 Poleward jet shift (lat) 1.5 Wind speed change (m/s) IPSL NCAR MIROC MPI CNRM GISS 1.5 IPSL NCAR MIROC MPI CNRM GISS Future: Poleward shi] 2 (slightly) faster winds.8 m/s Projects well on SAM Past: Weak and inconsistent lamtude and speed changes No preferred spamal structure
10 Temperature changes, IPSL model Future IPSL Past IPSL Pressure lamtude PI LGM lamtude MPI Future warming : max in upper tropical troposphere Ø Poleward jet shi] DeglaciaMon : addimonal warming over AntarcMca Ø CompeMng effects on jet posimon
11 IPSL NCAR MIROC Future Ø Different models: different sensimvimes, same structures PI LGM RCP PI Past MPI IPSL MPI CNRM NCAR CNRM GISS MIROC GISS
![QuanMfying the jet shi]: 2 indices of warming](/docs-images/88/114999226/images/12-0.jpg "IPSL Pressure lamtude Polar T pole Tropical T")
12 QuanMfying the jet shi]: 2 indices of warming IPSL Pressure lamtude Polar T pole Tropical T trop
13 1. Tropical warming only (or global mean ) 4 3 Poleward jet shi] () 2 1 CNRM GISS IPSL Past changes Future changes MIROC MPI NCAR δ(t trop ) Ø Weak correlamon (especially past)
14 2. Polar warming only Poleward jet shi] () δ(t pole ) Past changes Future changes Ø Weak correlamon (especially future)
15 3. OpMmal combinamon Poleward jet shi] () Past changes Future changes aδ(t trop )+bδ(t pole ) Ø Very good correlamon, both past and future
16 ContribuMons to the poleward jet shi] 2 δt trop - δt pole 6 PI LGM 6 RCP PI IPSL NCAR MIROC MPI CNRM GISS 6 IPSL NCAR MIROC MPI CNRM GISS Ø Tropical warming dominates in the future: poleward shi] Ø Strong compensamon in the past :???
17 Conclusions Despite comparable global- mean warming, very different wind changes. Future: systemamc poleward jet shi] De- glaciamon: very uncertain, due to compemmon between tropical (global) and polar (ice sheet) influences. But: warming and ice- sheet melmng not simultaneous Ø Transient shi]s of the jet possible?
18 Influence of the ice cap topography two scenarios from PMIP2 IPSL in which only ice cap topography is varying LGM_TOPO PiControl simulation with LGM ice extents with LGM ice cap topography PI_TOPO PiControl simulation with LGM ice extents with PI ice cap topography zonal wind at 85 hpa: difference LGM_TOPO - PI_TOPO the ice cap topography Higher ice sheet topography pushes the pushes jet the jet polewards! polewards! 2 S 4 S 6 S 8 S E 18 E 9 W [m/s]
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