End user understandings of uncertainty, ensemble forecasts, and EFAS
|
|
- Blaze Walters
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 End user understandings of uncertainty, ensemble forecasts, and EFAS Sebastien Nobert, David Demeritt, Hannah Cloke Department of Geography
2 Outline of Talk Today 1. Background to Study 2. General understandings of ensembles and uncertainty in flood forecasting 3. Responses to EFAS in particular 4. Challenges to using EPS 5. Conclusions & recommendations
3 1. Background: Preliminary findings from a larger study Europeanizing flood forecasting and the geographies of risk and science in the EU (RES ) Project Aims: 1. Explain the institutional politics of flood and disaster management in Europe; 2. Document the beliefs and practices involved in flood forecasting and explore their implications for managing floods in the face of uncertainty; 3. Enrich the understanding and communication of ensemble predictions (EPs) and advise EFAS about improving its specific role in flood risk assessment.
4 Promises of Ensemble Flood Forecasts the use of meteorological ensembles to produce sets of hydrological predictions increased the capability to issue flood warnings (Balint et al., 2006, p.67) The hydrological ensemble predictions have greater skill than deterministic ones. (Roulin, 2007) The use of EPS in hydrological forecasting proved to be of great added value to a flood early warning system, as the EPS-based forecasts showed in general higher skill than the deterministic-based ones. (Bartholmes et al., 2008) Are these technical promises realized in operational practice?
5 Research Design and Evidence Base 45+ interviews with forecasting experts, water authorities and CPAs in 14 European countries involved in flood forecasting, warning and emergency response Participant observation at forecasting workshops & conferences and during visits to forecasting centres All interview quotations are anonymized what we call our data are really our constructions of other people s constructions of what they are up to (Geertz 1973: 9)
6 Methodology: Qualitative Social Science Not an experimental science in search of laws; an interpretative one in search of understanding, or Verstehen Different objects of study, different methodologies Indifferent kinds (ie. rocks and other unconscious objects of study) Interactive kinds (people: objects who are also conscious subjects) Natural science Social science
7 Seeking a Thick Description of Meaningful Behaviour and Belief Consider two boys rapidly contracting the eyelids of their right eyes. In one this is an involuntary twitch; in the other a conspiratorial signal to a friend. The two are, as movements, identical... Yet the difference, however, unphotographable, between a twitch and wink is vast; as anyone unfortunate enough to have had the first taken for the second knows [T]he point is that between the thin description of what the winker/twitcher is doing ( rapidly contracting his right eyelid ) and the thick description of what he is doing ( practicing a burlesque of a friend faking a wink to deceive an innocent into thinking a conspiracy is in motion ) lies the object of ethnography: a stratified hierarchy of meaningful structures in terms of which twitches, winks, fake-winks, parodies, rehearsals of parodies are produced, perceived, and interpreted. Geertz (1973)
8 Accessing End User Understandings Solicited for broad interviews about operational flood warning and response EFAS not specifically mentioned Promised anonymity Enthusiastic to show me around My positionality : independent of JRC: allows more frank assessment of EFAS Scientific novice: requires informants to explain
9 Interview Protocol & Questions Semi-structured Broad set of topics & prompts Flexibility to adapt to flow of conversation Interviewees use own words and can steer conversation Topics Describe your flood forecasting, warning and emergency response system forecasting and data systems used Warning protocols and communication CPA responsibilities and responses Attitudes to uncertainty and EPS Knowledge & Experience EFAS Asking about EFAS at the start of the interview would have resulted in very different answers
10 Outline of Talk Today 1. Background to Study 2. General understandings of ensembles and uncertainty in flood forecasting 3. Responses to EFAS in particular 4. Communicating EPS and uncertainty 5. Conclusions & recommendations
11 2. EPS: an often unfamiliar product Differing levels of awareness Well, the EPS is rather, um, is rather rare, from what I ve heard. Most countries really work with deterministic I've seen products from EFAS several times at meetings, at workshops. I don t get it regularly. So I can't comment on the operational use or something like that... I would be interested in having this product and looking at that... that they can give a more profound... understanding Some surprising ignorance, even among MoU signatories: EPS, what does that mean? Issue of the model ensembles is it makes some average number of when you have few different models and this is the resulting model. Is it right? Some average?
12 Informational Value of EPS Contested Ensemble mean= the best guess forecast? But generally, it's better to have these ensembles. Even if you don t use the probabilistic information, just use the ensemble mean. This is basically what we do for some customers. We give them ensemble mean because it's better than the deterministic one. Ensemble mean=meaningless statistic This is still an important debate. So there are some people around the world trying to use the mean. If you use the mean, it's not too much value.
13 Using EPS as a check on local deterministic model? Forecasters sometimes looked to EFAS as a check on their own deterministic models: Forecaster: We are linked, in the EFAS family and so we compare our data. Interviewer: With their predications? Forecaster: Yeah, we use EFAS... we usually check it if we see the situation is dangerous or might be dangerous by our own judgement... Interviewer: Let's say you're using your model and then you look at what EFAS is predicting... Forecaster: Yeah, we can compare and we can decide and we can strictly express that it's true or not... [whether] our statements are right or wrong EPS not designed as validation tool
14 Can EPS improve flood risk management? Forecasters complain CPAs can t tolerate uncertainty or error: At the very end, I think everything must be a kind of deterministic forecast... Does lake exceed this threshold, yes or no? It's always... at the very end, it's always a yes or no decision. Others welcome probabilistic information: it's presented in percentage... That s really good because...i can see, Well, I have just this amount of man or equipment and so on, where shall I put it? If I see it like a likelihood, then I can take my own decision.
15 Dispute over critical forecasting uncertainties to resolve 2. uncertainty about runoff processes? In hydrology, we are obviously conscious of our model uncertainty. What is more uncertain than hydrological models? I don t really know frankly, but it is obvious that hydrological models are as uncertain as meteorological models. This is because the representation of river basin is so simplified in comparison with reality 3. Quantifying total uncertainty? I said if a forecast is 5 spaghetti lines above our threshold, it doesn't mean that the probability is 10%...it might be 5% or 50%. I don t know. I can't estimate it. 1. uncertainty about rainfall? What we would like to see is a better precision in rainfall forecasts. This is because the main source of uncertainty in forecasting floods comes from the rain scenarios Time
16 Broad patterns in understandings of EPS and flood forecast uncertainty Still working to quantify open-ended interview data No consistent differences in attitudes between meteorologists and hydrologists Clear contrasts between old EU states and new accession & EU candidate countries Wealthy EU states often have or developing own EPS capacity for NWP and/or flood forecasting New accession states have fewer resources & other development priorities: better instrumentation, more computing, training, etc Meteorological and hydrological forecasting cascaded or state of art prediction model for select profiles. This is our dream. This is our big... how to say? We want very much to do something like that, but have some obstacles... You need very good people, very good in mathematics, very good in modelling and very good in programming. But those people are very expensive. Salary in our institute is not very attractive for those people.
17 Outline of Talk Today 1. Background to Study 2. General understandings of ensembles and uncertainty in flood forecasting 3. Responses to EFAS in particular 4. Communicating EPS and uncertainty 5. Conclusions & recomendations
18 3. Responses to EFAS in particular Generally welcomed by forecasters as a useful pre-alert: Yeah. We also get EFAS reports. For us, it's a useful pre information, but normally 2 or 3 or 4 days before a flood, we normally know from the weather forecast that we should be aware of this... Summary tables a good way to show ensemble But I have the impression with the presentation of these boxes which shift every new round is quite a good way of presenting uncertainty in the forecasts Widespread desire to see hydrographs as part of alerts If they would give a hydrograph, forecast with hydrograph, that would be fantastic!
19 EFAS complements national capacities Medium term warnings operationally useful to forecasting centres It is useful because these warnings came to our office let's say 4 or 5 days before.... it's useful for us to raise the preparedness of our staff a few days before. A few saw EFAS pre-alerts as useful for allowing earlier warnings to CPAs it s definitely very useful, the direct operational relevance is for the moment in terms of civil protection.
20 EFAS works best on big rivers Forecasters and CPAs are not especially troubled by forecasting those risks The other thing is it's very, very dependent on the size of the catchment, the quality of the forecasts. If you do forecast for large rivers, it's more easy than if you have some torrents. If you have in the alpine region, you can't do forecasting there. CPA: Danube, it's very well-known. So it's very slow from rising and falling. Interviewer: But for small rivers though it must be more difficult? CPA: The problems there are really dangerous. You can't see... may be you have small scale thunderstorms. It's not possible to give a prognosis in about 30 minutes.
21 Flash flooding perceived as bigger threat, but EFAS less help The problem [here] is these rivers are alpine type, very small scale and [EFAS], it's good information.... but not for detailed flood forecasting... It's a rough idea for someone sitting in Brussels and in London. But not really useful for someone sitting [here]. This is just a problem of scale
22 Concerns: what do EFAS warnings mean? Hydrographs of river flow or water levels the traditional measure of flood risk in hydrology EFAS alerts based on # ensemble members exceeding unspecified thresholds The problem with EFAS particularly is that they do not show hydrographs, but they only tell you that there is a chance of serious flooding But they don t say what the level will be. They only say there is a chance of serious flooding or extreme flooding, but you don t know what it means. Number of EFAS ensemble members exceeding the high (HAL) and serious (SAL) alert levels
23 Thresholds: too low, confusion about how they are calculated [...] the question is how EFAS thresholds are established. This is our big problem since the thresholds of our two models are tailored to our data bank. [...] They have simply taken the 20 years of flow simulation since Thus, because these years were relatively dry, their thresholds are very very low. Forecaster: So far, most alerts have been a little bit too early. Interviewer: Do you think it s because of EPS system, or Forecaster: No, because their warning levels are too low. Interviewer: Do you know what they use as thresholds? Forecaster: They use observations, they look at the data set that they have in some cases and this is a very limited data set of about five six years. And they look at the maximum level that has occurred in these periods.
24 Broad patterns of response: new accession states most consistently enthusiastic very important I think is this initiative of EFAS project. It's useful one. And once they improve their models, it will be [even better]... So anyway, we are a partner in this cooperation and we receive their product. It's another source of getting information of possibility of having flood events [here] For scientific reasons... This is quite comfortable for us because they [EFAS] have very good information Back door access to higher quality ECMWF ensemble products For internal organizational reasons... Participating in EFAS also about being European Provides leverage for securing additional resources Access to international scientific networks
25 Old Europe less enthusiastic EFAS one of many, many sources of information It is useful. But we could easily live without it. Sometimes think local systems superior They coordinate I think from Ispra from Italy. Yeah, I've heard of it. But the colleagues...said it's not so good than our model. Developing own national ensemble flood forecasting capacity (e.g. UK, Switzerland, France, Sweden, Germany)
26 EFAS inspires innovation at national level EFAS proves ensemble flood forecasting can be done operationally EFAS precedent often referred to in R&D strategies Interviewer: Was the idea sort of influenced by EFAS or it had something else to do with it? Forecaster: I have seen presentations by Jens Bartholmes and Jutta Thielen. This was an inspiration of course.
27 Outline of Talk Today 1. Background to Study 2. General understandings of ensembles and uncertainty in flood forecasting 3. Responses to EFAS in particular 4. Challenges to using EPS 5. Conclusions & recommendations
28 4. Challenges to using EPS Displaying full ensemble may lead to: confused inaction: Because we can't predict exactly... The problem is how to show this uncertainty. But this [EPS] is too much information, I think, that the public cannot use false confidence and over-optimization of response: But even if you have a wide range, you can't be sure that really the water level is outside the range. I think this is really a problem. People think, I'm safe, my threshold isn't reached. But the threshold can be reached, can be the higher water level...you can't be sure that the water level is in this range. Therefore the benefit [of EPS] is not very high
29 Communicating Probabilistic Forecasts to Civil Protection Forecaster doubts over ability of CPAs to understand probabilistic warnings: But these people simply don t understand. They don t need this information. I don t care what the probability is. Give me exact figure!! [they say]. It really doesn t operate on uncertainties. I said, there is uncertainty of 10%. What does it, what do you mean, 10% uncertainty? Give me the figure. I want exact forecast. [Laughs] People cannot deal with uncertainties, it is too complicated. The problem is that to live, to go for a walk, to know whether we go to the picnic or nor, we could cope with it. However, when it is time to decide whether we evacuate or not, it is another story. Training and better EPS visualizations can help, but...
30 Conflicting institutional demands Greater certainty We believe that there must be a step change in the quality of flood warnings The public and emergency responders must be able to rely on this information with greater certainty than last year (Pitt 2008: vii) And Earlier warnings The Met Office and the Environment Agency should issue warnings against a lower threshold of probability to increase preparation lead times (Recommendation 34: Pitt review)
31 Accountability concerns over EPS Re-distributing responsibility for flood risk management decisions EPS also means dumping responsibility onto forecast users. By forcing forecasters to provide deterministic predictions, the accountability remains entirely on the shoulders of forecasters. If a forecaster provides a probabilistic forecast, they give the import for the decision to forecasts users.... Asking for a deterministic prediction is also a way for the person in charge of taking a decision to avoid decisional problems and blame. Concerns over Europeanization and competencies If the [national river forecasting centre] starts talking about weather, they get heavily criticised. If we mention the word flooding,... we got heavily criticised...if you have a European Agency [EFAS] with an unclear mandate that does not have a national responsibility, providing such a service, then we would be very nervous about this.
32 Outline of Talk Today 1. Background to Study 2. General understandings of ensembles and uncertainty in flood forecasting 3. Responses to EFAS in particular 4. Challenges to using EPS 5. Conclusions & recommendations
33 Conclusions Informational value of EPS not self-evident understood in different ways by operational flood forecasters Ensembles not always used as proponents imagine they should be Meaning and value of EFAS thresholds unclear Substantial institutional challenges to ensemble flood forecasting in general and to EFAS in particular
34 Recommendations for further improvements Improve calibration of thresholds Tailor threshold levels to needs of different end users Clarify and communicate how thresholds are calculated Experiment with providing hydrographs to some cooperating water authorities Visit forecasting centres and provide more training in situ
David Demeritt, Sébastien Nobert, Hannah Cloke. Seminar presentation to European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, 18 February 2010
Communicating Ensemble Forecasts: Reflections on the European Experience David Demeritt, Sébastien Nobert, Hannah Cloke King s College London, Department of Geography Seminar presentation to European Centre
More informationFlood Forecasting. Fredrik Wetterhall European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Flood Forecasting Fredrik Wetterhall (fredrik.wetterhall@ecmwf.int) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Slide 1 Flooding a global challenge Number of floods Slide 2 Flooding a global challenge
More informationFlood Risk Forecasts for England and Wales: Production and Communication
Staines Surrey Flood Risk Forecasts for England and Wales: Production and Communication Jon Millard UEF 2015 : Quantifying and Communicating Uncertainty FFC What is the FFC? Successful partnership between
More informationC o p e r n i c u s E m e r g e n c y M a n a g e m e n t S e r v i c e f o r e c a s t i n g f l o o d s
C o p e r n i c u s E m e r g e n c y M a n a g e m e n t S e r v i c e f o r e c a s t i n g f l o o d s Copernicus & Copernicus Services Copernicus EU Copernicus EU Copernicus EU www.copernicus.eu W
More informationDonna J. Kain, PhD and Catherine F. Smith, PhD East Carolina University
Risk Perceptions and Emergency Communication Effectiveness in Coastal Zones Preliminary Findings on Interpretations of Weather Related Messages and Maps Donna J. Kain, PhD (kaind@ecu.edu), and Catherine
More informationAt the start of the talk will be a trivia question. Be prepared to write your answer.
Operational hydrometeorological forecasting activities of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Thomas Pagano At the start of the talk will be a trivia question. Be prepared to write your answer. http://scottbridle.com/
More informationThe Wind Hazard: Messaging the Wind Threat & Corresponding Potential Impacts
The Wind Hazard: Messaging the Wind Threat & Corresponding Potential Impacts Scott Spratt Warning Coordination Meteorologist NWS Melbourne, FL David Sharp Science & Operations Officer NWS Melbourne, FL
More informationVisualising and communicating probabilistic flow forecasts in The Netherlands
Visualising and communicating probabilistic flow forecasts in The Netherlands Eric Sprokkereef Centre for Water Management Division Crisis Management & Information Supply 2-2-2009 Content The basins Forecasting
More informationCómo contar la predicción probabilistica? Part II: From body language to percentages
Cómo contar la predicción probabilistica? How to tell probabilities in weather forecasting? Part II: From body language to percentages 1 From 100% qualitative to 100% quantitative probability communication
More informationAdvanced Spotter Training Welcome! Lesson 1: Introduction and Why Spotters are Important
Advanced Spotter Training 2009 Welcome! Lesson 1: Introduction and Why Spotters are Important Introduction This course is intended to advance the basic training given by the National Weather Service (NWS).
More informationNew dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand ensemble weather predictions
New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand ensemble weather predictions Article Published Version Pappenberger, F., Bartholmes, J., Thielen, J., Cloke, H. L., Buizza, R. and de
More informationINCA-CE achievements and status
INCA-CE achievements and status Franziska Strauss Yong Wang Alexander Kann Benedikt Bica Ingo Meirold-Mautner INCA Central Europe Integrated nowcasting for the Central European area This project is implemented
More informationEnhancing Weather Information with Probability Forecasts. An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society
Enhancing Weather Information with Probability Forecasts An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society (Adopted by AMS Council on 12 May 2008) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89 Summary This
More informationKeeping well and healthy when it is really cold
Cold Weather Plan for England 2012 Keeping well and healthy when it is really cold Easy Read version of: Cold Weather Plan for England 2012: Protecting health and reducing harm from severe cold. What
More informationCommunicating uncertainty from short-term to seasonal forecasting
Communicating uncertainty from short-term to seasonal forecasting MAYBE NO YES Jay Trobec KELO-TV Sioux Falls, South Dakota USA TV weather in the US Most TV weather presenters have university degrees and
More informationWMO. Key Elements of PWS and Effective EWS. Haleh Haleh Kootval Chief, PWS Programme
WMO Key Elements of PWS and Effective EWS Haleh Haleh Kootval Chief, PWS Programme Workshop Objectives This workshop is all about Service Delivery and becoming excellent at it through: Sharing experiences
More informationNUCLEAR EMERGENCY RESPONSE ACTIVITIES COORDINATION GROUP Original: ENGLISH EC-JRC ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO LONG RANGE ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMS CBS/CG-NERA/Doc. (number) (26.04.2006) OPAG on DPFS NUCLEAR EMERGENCY RESPONSE ACTIVITIES COORDINATION GROUP Original: ENGLISH VIENNA, AUSTRIA,
More informationHydrological forecasting and decision making in Australia
Hydrological forecasting and decision making in Australia Justin Robinson, Jeff Perkins and Bruce Quig Bureau of Meteorology, Australia The Bureau's Hydrological Forecasting Services Seasonal Forecasts
More informationDescriptive Statistics (And a little bit on rounding and significant digits)
Descriptive Statistics (And a little bit on rounding and significant digits) Now that we know what our data look like, we d like to be able to describe it numerically. In other words, how can we represent
More informationWMO/WWRP FDP: INCA CE
WMO/WWRP FDP: INCA CE Yong Wang ZAMG, Austria This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF INCA CE: implementation over Central Europe A Nowcasting Initiative
More informationInnovative Ways to Monitor Land Displacement
ARTICLE Innovative Ways to Monitor Land Displacement When people think about landslides, they usually imagine large mud streams which cause considerable loss of life. Whereas such large-scale disasters
More informationEARLY WARNING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA:
EARLY WARNING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA: Enhancing the Meteorological Early Warning System Eugene Poolman South African Weather Service OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION Impact of Climate Change Meteorological Early Warning
More informationFlash Flood Guidance System On-going Enhancements
Flash Flood Guidance System On-going Enhancements Hydrologic Research Center, USA Technical Developer SAOFFG Steering Committee Meeting 1 10-12 July 2017 Jakarta, INDONESIA Theresa M. Modrick Hansen, PhD
More informationChallenges in providing effective flood forecasts and warnings
Challenges in providing effective flood forecasts and warnings National Centre for Flood Research Inaugural Symposium Justin Robinson Bureau of Meteorology October 2018 Zero Lives Lost A key responsibility
More informationChallenges of Communicating Weather Information to the Public. Sam Lashley Senior Meteorologist National Weather Service Northern Indiana Office
Challenges of Communicating Weather Information to the Public Sam Lashley Senior Meteorologist National Weather Service Northern Indiana Office Dilbert the Genius Do you believe him? Challenges of Communicating
More informationUni- and Bivariate Power
Uni- and Bivariate Power Copyright 2002, 2014, J. Toby Mordkoff Note that the relationship between risk and power is unidirectional. Power depends on risk, but risk is completely independent of power.
More informationRegional Flash Flood Guidance and Early Warning System
WMO Training for Trainers Workshop on Integrated approach to flash flood and flood risk management 24-28 October 2010 Kathmandu, Nepal Regional Flash Flood Guidance and Early Warning System Dr. W. E. Grabs
More informationOverview of Early Warning Systems and the role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
Overview of Early Warning Systems and the role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services South Africa Second Experts Symposium on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems With focus on the Role of
More informationSRI Briefing Note Series No.8 Communicating uncertainty in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts in Europe: organisational needs and preferences
ISSN 2056-8843 Sustainability Research Institute SCHOOL OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT SRI Briefing Note Series No.8 Communicating uncertainty in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts in Europe: organisational
More informationSpecial Theory Of Relativity Prof. Shiva Prasad Department of Physics Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay
Special Theory Of Relativity Prof. Shiva Prasad Department of Physics Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay Lecture - 6 Length Contraction and Time Dilation (Refer Slide Time: 00:29) In our last lecture,
More informationIntroduction to Algebra: The First Week
Introduction to Algebra: The First Week Background: According to the thermostat on the wall, the temperature in the classroom right now is 72 degrees Fahrenheit. I want to write to my friend in Europe,
More informationYour web browser (Safari 7) is out of date. For more security, comfort and. the best experience on this site: Update your browser Ignore
Your web browser (Safari 7) is out of date. For more security, comfort and lesson the best experience on this site: Update your browser Ignore Political Borders Why are the borders of countries located
More informationThe UK National Severe Weather Warning Service - Guidance Unit Perspective
The UK National Severe Weather Warning Service - Guidance Unit Perspective Dan Suri, Chief Operational Meteorologist ECMWF User Workshop June 2015 Contents Who are the Guidance Unit? The National Severe
More informationExperience in service delivery through working with regional centres
Experience in service delivery through working with regional centres Mnikeli Ndabambi World Meteorological Organization (WMO) International Symposium on PWS Geneva, Switzerland, 03 05 December 2007 Miracles
More informationEFAS Bulletins. Yearbook Peter Salamon, Jens Bartholmes, Jutta Thielen
EFAS Bulletins Yearbook 2007 Peter Salamon, Jens Bartholmes, Jutta Thielen EUR 23264 EN - 2008 The mission of the Institute for Environment and Sustainability is to provide scientific-technical support
More informationBBC Learning English 6 Minute English Seeds
BBC Learning English 6 Minute English Seeds NB: This is not a word for word transcript Hello! I m Rob, this is 6 Minute English - and today, I'm joined by Yvonne. Hello, Yvonne. Hi Rob! Today, we re talking
More informationForecasting Flood Risk at the Flood Forecasting Centre, UK. Delft-FEWS User Days David Price
Forecasting Flood Risk at the Flood Forecasting Centre, UK Delft-FEWS User Days 2012 David Price Overview of the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) What is the FFC? Partnership between the Met Office and Environment
More informationEVALUATION AND VERIFICATION OF PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES. Pablo Santos Meteorologist In Charge National Weather Service Miami, FL
EVALUATION AND VERIFICATION OF PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES Pablo Santos Meteorologist In Charge National Weather Service Miami, FL WHAT IS THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A GOVERNMENT WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
More informationCommunicating Forecast Uncertainty for service providers
Communicating Forecast Uncertainty for service providers Jon Gill Bureau of Meteorology, Australia Chair, WMO Expert Team on Communication Aspects of PWS International Symposium on Public Weather Services:
More informationCoastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project CIFDP. Flood Forecasting Initiative-Advisory Group (FFI-AG 3), Geneva, 5-7 Dec, 2017
Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project CIFDP Flood Forecasting Initiative-Advisory Group (FFI-AG 3), Geneva, 5-7 Dec, 2017 Coastal Flooding & Vulnerable Populations Coastal populations are
More informationICE STORM! a mini tabletop exercise for home care agencies
1 ICE STORM! a mini tabletop exercise for home care agencies HCA Education and Research Winter 2010 2011 2 What is a tabletop exercise? People come together to review and discuss a hypothetical emergency
More informationSpace Weather & Critical Infrastructures
Space Weather & Critical Infrastructures Italy Organisers EC JRC, MSB, UK Met Office Date and Venue 29-30 November 2016, JRC Ispra, Background Our modern technological infrastructures on the ground and
More informationLECTURE 15: SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION I
David Youngberg BSAD 20 Montgomery College LECTURE 5: SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION I I. From Correlation to Regression a. Recall last class when we discussed two basic types of correlation (positive and negative).
More informationIntegrating Nowcastingwith crisis management and risk prevention in a transnational framework (INCA-CE)
Integrating Nowcastingwith crisis management and risk prevention in a transnational framework (INCA-CE) Yong Wang ZAMG, Austria This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed
More informationINCA CE: Integrating Nowcasting with crisis management and risk prevention in a transnational framework
INCA CE: Integrating Nowcasting with crisis management and risk prevention in a transnational framework Yong Wang ZAMG, Austria This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed
More informationThe history of HEPEX a community of practice in hydrologic prediction
The history of HEPEX a community of practice in hydrologic prediction Maria-Helena Ramos (1) Florian Pappenberger (2), Andy Wood (3), Fredrik Wetterhall (2), Qj Wang (4), Jan Verkade (5), Ilias Pechlivanidis
More informationNurture Nature Center Receives Grant From National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration To Study Flood Forecast and Warning Tools
Nurture Nature Center Receives Grant From National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration To Study Flood Forecast and Warning Tools One of four national awards by National Weather Service to advance weather
More informationApplications: forecaster perspective, training
Applications: forecaster perspective, training Ken Mylne Met Office Also, Chair, WMO CBS Expert Team on Ensemble Prediction Thanks to: Anders Persson, Pierre Eckert, many others. Crown copyright 2004 Page
More informationNational Public Weather and Warning Services in the Swaziland Meteorological Service Dennis S.Mkhonta /
National Public Weather and Warning Services in the Swaziland Meteorological Service Dennis S.Mkhonta dennis.mkhonta@gmail.com / dennis@swazimet.gov.sz Introduction Swaziland s geographical position exposes
More informationLooking at Scripture with New Eyes: A Chance Conversation Between Faith and Science
1 Looking at Scripture with New Eyes: A Chance Conversation Between Faith and Science William K. Lewis Fairmont Presbyterian Church College Ministry Team One of the things I really enjoy about education
More informationHaiti and Dominican Republic Flash Flood Initial Planning Meeting
Dr Rochelle Graham Climate Scientist Haiti and Dominican Republic Flash Flood Initial Planning Meeting September 7 th to 9 th, 2016 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrcwater.org Haiti and Dominican
More informationWater Resources Systems Prof. P. P. Mujumdar Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
Water Resources Systems Prof. P. P. Mujumdar Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore Module No. # 05 Lecture No. # 22 Reservoir Capacity using Linear Programming (2) Good
More information2 Approaches To Developing Design Ground Motions
2 Approaches To Developing Design Ground Motions There are two basic approaches to developing design ground motions that are commonly used in practice: deterministic and probabilistic. While both approaches
More informationCHAPTER 1: Preliminary Description of Errors Experiment Methodology and Errors To introduce the concept of error analysis, let s take a real world
CHAPTER 1: Preliminary Description of Errors Experiment Methodology and Errors To introduce the concept of error analysis, let s take a real world experiment. Suppose you wanted to forecast the results
More informationOperational Perspectives on Hydrologic Model Data Assimilation
Operational Perspectives on Hydrologic Model Data Assimilation Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NOAA / National Weather Service California-Nevada River Forecast Center Sacramento, CA USA Outline Operational
More informationCoCoRaHS. Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, & Snow Network. Ashley Wolf Meteorologist NWS Green Bay Northeast Wisconsin CoCoRaHS Coordinator
CoCoRaHS Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, & Snow Network Ashley Wolf Meteorologist NWS Green Bay Northeast Wisconsin CoCoRaHS Coordinator What is CoCoRaHS Who, What, Where and Whys of CoCoRaHS What?
More informationFolsom Dam Water Control Manual Update
Folsom Dam Water Control Manual Update Public Workshop April 3, 2014 Location: Sterling Hotel Ballroom 1300 H Street, Sacramento US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG WELCOME & INTRODUCTIONS 2 BUILDING
More informationHow to shape future met-services: a seamless perspective
How to shape future met-services: a seamless perspective Paolo Ruti, Chief World Weather Research Division Sarah Jones, Chair Scientific Steering Committee Improving the skill big resources ECMWF s forecast
More informationEnsembles, Uncertainty and Climate Projections. Chris Brierley (Room 117)
Ensembles, Uncertainty and Climate Projections Chris Brierley (Room 117) Definitions Ensemble: group of model simulations Uncertainty: doubt and ambiguity about future conditions Climate Projection: modeled
More informationUnited States Multi-Hazard Early Warning System
United States Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Saving Lives Through Partnership Lynn Maximuk National Weather Service Director, Central Region Kansas City, Missouri America s s Weather Enterprise: Protecting
More informationCaribbean Early Warning System Workshop
Caribbean Early Warning System Workshop Hamonization in Existing EWS April 14-16, 2016 Presenter: Shawn Boyce Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology Husbands, St. James Barbados Background Between
More informationImagination and Scientific Visualizations. Greg Trafton (NRL) Susan Trickett (NRL) Chris Schunn (University of Pittsburgh)
Imagination and Scientific Visualizations Greg Trafton (NRL) Susan Trickett (NRL) Chris Schunn (University of Pittsburgh) Creativity in Science Many anecdotes of creativity in scientific discovery seem
More informationNational level products generation including calibration aspects
National level products generation including calibration aspects Dr. Cedric J. VAN MEERBEECK, Climatologist (cmeerbeeck@cimh.edu.bb), Adrian R. Trotman, Chief of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (atrotman@cimh.edu.bb),
More informationNWS Flood Warning Products plus a Look Ahead
NWS Flood Warning Products plus a Look Ahead September 21 & 22, 2010 DRBC Flood Warning Users Forum Presented by Gary Szatkowski Meteorologist-in-Charge NOAA s National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt.
More informationOperational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting. Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NWS / California-Nevada River Forecast Center
Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NWS / California-Nevada River Forecast Center Mission of NWS Hydrologic Services Program Provide river and flood forecasts
More informationMITOCW ocw f99-lec09_300k
MITOCW ocw-18.06-f99-lec09_300k OK, this is linear algebra lecture nine. And this is a key lecture, this is where we get these ideas of linear independence, when a bunch of vectors are independent -- or
More information3PK. February 13-14, Matt s friends bring him to Jesus. Luke 5: We can share Jesus with our friends.
3PK February 13-14, 2016 Luke 5:17-26 First 10 minutes of the service hour: Engage kids in cooperative play activities to help them connect to other kids Next 5 minutes: Connect Time Next 25 minutes: Large
More informationGMES EURORISK Geo-information services for natural and man-made risks management
GMES EURORISK Geo-information services for natural and man-made risks management 8/11/2004 EURORISK A European scale approach for developing, delivering and operationally exploiting new information services
More informationProgress Report. Flood Hazard Mapping in Thailand
Progress Report Flood Hazard Mapping in Thailand Prepared By: Mr. PAITOON NAKTAE Chief of Safety Standard sub-beuro Disaster Prevention beuro Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation THAILAND E-mail:
More informationPig organ transplants within 5 years
www.breaking News English.com Ready-to-use ESL / EFL Lessons Pig organ transplants within 5 years URL: http://www.breakingnewsenglish.com/0509/050911-xenotransplant.html Today s contents The Article 2
More informationAMMA-ALMIP-MEM project soil moisture & μwaves Tb
AMMA-ALMIP-MEM project soil moisture & μwaves Tb P. de Rosnay, A. Boone, M. Drusch, T. Holmes, G. Balsamo, many others ALMIPers (paper submitted to IGARSS) AMMA-ALMIP-MEM first spatial verification of
More informationRegional Flash Flood Guidance
Regional Flash Flood Guidance Konstantine Georgakakos, Director Theresa Carpenter, Hydrologic Engineer Jason Sperfslage, Software Engineer Hydrologic Research Center www.hrc-lab.org SAFFG - June 2007 Flash
More informationEarly Warning > Early Action: The Next Frontier. Dr. Arame Tall Climate Services- Global Coordinator, Champion
Early Warning > Early Action: The Next Frontier Dr. Arame Tall Climate Services- Global Coordinator, Champion a.tall@cgiar.org 2 3/21/11 The Challenge: Bridging The Gap Seasonal Precipitation Forecast
More informationNWS Mission 5/25/2017. Innovations in Flood Forecasting at the National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center
Innovations in Flood Forecasting at the National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center Kris Lander, PE, CFM Gregory Waller NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center NWS Mission To provide weather,
More informationTerritorial Cooperation within the Northern Periphery and the Arctic
Territorial Cooperation within the Northern Periphery and the Arctic 12 March 2013 / By Silvia Curbelo Betancort North charr project, Landösjön lake, Sweden. Source: North Periphery Programme Today we
More information( )( b + c) = ab + ac, but it can also be ( )( a) = ba + ca. Let s use the distributive property on a couple of
Factoring Review for Algebra II The saddest thing about not doing well in Algebra II is that almost any math teacher can tell you going into it what s going to trip you up. One of the first things they
More informationCOMP61011 : Machine Learning. Probabilis*c Models + Bayes Theorem
COMP61011 : Machine Learning Probabilis*c Models + Bayes Theorem Probabilis*c Models - one of the most active areas of ML research in last 15 years - foundation of numerous new technologies - enables decision-making
More informationSpecial Theory of Relativity Prof. Dr. Shiva Prasad Department of Physics Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay
(Refer Slide Time: 00:36) Special Theory of Relativity Prof. Dr. Shiva Prasad Department of Physics Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay Lecture - 7 Examples of Length Contraction and Time Dilation Hello,
More informationDEVELOPMENT OF A FORECAST EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ethekwini Municipality, Durban, RSA. Clint Chrystal, Natasha Ramdass, Mlondi Hlongwae
DEVELOPMENT OF A FORECAST EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ethekwini Municipality, Durban, RSA Clint Chrystal, Natasha Ramdass, Mlondi Hlongwae LOCATION DETAILS AND BOUNDARIES ethekwini Municipal Area = 2297 km 2
More informationPUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES
WMO AGENDA ITEM 2.1(1) PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES Gerald Fleming Chair, OPAG/PWS (Paraguay 8-12 September 2014) WMO - Public Weather Services, WDS WMO Summary CBS requested to make decisions on: Adopt Draft
More informationFrom Hazards to Impact: Experiences from the Hazard Impact Modelling project
The UK s trusted voice for coordinated natural hazards advice From Hazards to Impact: Experiences from the Hazard Impact Modelling project Becky Hemingway, Met Office ECMWF UEF 2017, 14 th June 2017 [People]
More informationNew approaches to warning: the role of radar
New approaches to warning: the role of radar John Handmer Centre for Risk and Community Safety, RMIT University Today The risk we want to reduce, and how much impact can we have on the risk of disasters?
More informationMATH 22 FUNCTIONS: ORDER OF GROWTH. Lecture O: 10/21/2003. The old order changeth, yielding place to new. Tennyson, Idylls of the King
MATH 22 Lecture O: 10/21/2003 FUNCTIONS: ORDER OF GROWTH The old order changeth, yielding place to new. Tennyson, Idylls of the King Men are but children of a larger growth. Dryden, All for Love, Act 4,
More informationQuantum Physics & Reality
Quantum Physics & Reality Todd Duncan Science Integration Institute (www.scienceintegration.org) & PSU Center for Science Education Anyone who is not shocked by quantum theory has not understood it. -
More informationMeteorological CLEAR BUT PRESENT DANGER
THE INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND HYDROLOGY TECHNOLOGIES AND SERVICES Meteorological AUGUST 2012 T E C H N O L O G Y I N T E R N A T I O N A L CLEAR BUT PRESENT DANGER The latest Earth
More informationMITOCW ocw f99-lec01_300k
MITOCW ocw-18.06-f99-lec01_300k Hi. This is the first lecture in MIT's course 18.06, linear algebra, and I'm Gilbert Strang. The text for the course is this book, Introduction to Linear Algebra. And the
More informationApplication and verification of ECMWF products 2017
Application and verification of ECMWF products 2017 Slovenian Environment Agency ARSO; A. Hrabar, J. Jerman, V. Hladnik 1. Summary of major highlights We started to validate some ECMWF parameters and other
More informationMITOCW ocw f99-lec30_300k
MITOCW ocw-18.06-f99-lec30_300k OK, this is the lecture on linear transformations. Actually, linear algebra courses used to begin with this lecture, so you could say I'm beginning this course again by
More informationWales real time forecasting for fast responding rivers. Andy Wall Flood Forecasting Team Leader Environment Agency Wales
Wales real time forecasting for fast responding rivers Andy Wall Flood Forecasting Team Leader Environment Agency Wales Flood risk & forecasting in Wales Fast responding rivers 220,000 properties at
More informationUsing Weather Pattern Analysis to Identify Periods of Heightened Coastal Flood Risk in the Medium to Long Range
UEF 2017 - Storms Using Weather Pattern Analysis to Identify Periods of Heightened Coastal Flood Risk in the Medium to Long Range David Price (FFC) and Robert Neal (Met Office) Thursday 15 June The Flood
More informationAurora Bell*, Alan Seed, Ross Bunn, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
15B.1 RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND NOWCASTS: THE CHALLENGING ROAD FROM RESEARCH TO WARNINGS Aurora Bell*, Alan Seed, Ross Bunn, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia 1. Introduction Warnings are
More informationGeography. Programme of study for key stage 3 and attainment target (This is an extract from The National Curriculum 2007)
Geography Programme of study for key stage 3 and attainment target (This is an extract from The National Curriculum 2007) Crown copyright 2007 Qualifications and Curriculum Authority 2007 Curriculum aims
More informationCoping with natural risk in the XXI century: new challenges for scientists and decision makers
Coping with natural risk in the XXI century: new challenges for scientists and decision makers Warner Marzocchi, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Outline The definition of hazard and risk
More informationThe Global Flood Awareness System
The Global Flood Awareness System David Muraro, Gabriele Mantovani and Florian Pappenberger www.globalfloods.eu 1 Forecasting chain using Ensemble Numerical Weather Predictions Flash Floods / Riverine
More informationADL110B ADL120 ADL130 ADL140 How to use radar and strike images. Version
ADL110B ADL120 ADL130 ADL140 How to use radar and strike images Version 1.00 22.08.2016 How to use radar and strike images 1 / 12 Revision 1.00-22.08.2016 WARNING: Like any information of the ADL in flight
More informationWMO Priorities and Perspectives on IPWG
WMO Priorities and Perspectives on IPWG Stephan Bojinski WMO Space Programme IPWG-6, São José dos Campos, Brazil, 15-19 October 2012 1. Introduction to WMO Extended Abstract The World Meteorological Organization
More informationBuilding A Weather-Ready Nation
Building A Weather-Ready Nation Steve Runnels National Weather Service Springfield, MO` Photo Credit: Tim Marshall 122 National Weather Service Offices NWS Offices Service Missouri and Warning Coordination
More informationNesting and LBCs, Predictability and EPS
Nesting and LBCs, Predictability and EPS Terry Davies, Dynamics Research, Met Office Nigel Richards, Neill Bowler, Peter Clark, Caroline Jones, Humphrey Lean, Ken Mylne, Changgui Wang copyright Met Office
More informationSeamless Probabilistic Forecasts for Civil Protection: from week to minutes
Seamless Probabilistic Forecasts for Civil Protection: from week to minutes Yong Wang, Clemens Wastl, Andre Simon, Mihaly Szűcs ZAMG and HMS An EU project Bridging of Probabilistic Forecasts and Civil
More informationJoint Research Centre (JRC)
Toulouse on 15/06/2009-HEPEX 1 Joint Research Centre (JRC) Comparison of the different inputs and outputs of hydrologic prediction system - the full sets of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), the reforecast
More information