Activity Report for Australian TCWCs 2009/2012

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1 Activity Report for Australian TCWCs 2009/2012 7th RSMC/TCWC Co-ordination Meeting Citeko, November 2012 Mike Bergin Regional Director (Western Australia) Bureau of Meteorology

2 Outline Significant Cyclones - Issues Verification New Services

3 RSMC/TCWC Areas of Responsibility

4 Australian TCWCs Areas of Responsibility until 2010

5 Areas of Responsibility for Australian TCWCs from 2010

6 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

7 Genesis point of cyclones that become Severe TC crossings Severe & non-severe

8 Location of greatest intensity TC crossings Severe & non-severe

9 North Rankin oil drilling platform

11 LNG processing facility at Karratha

12 El Nino Natural climate variability is a dominating factor in Australia especially in regards to tropical cyclone and monsoonal activity La Nina

13 Southern Oscillation Index

14 La Niña 2010 a strong event Rainfall deciles

15 A humbling experience

16 Tropical Cyclone Central Pressure Verification Australian Region HR +24HR +48HR 15.0 Mean Error (hpa) Season (commencing 1 July)

17 Cyclone Categories Cat 1 - Wind Gusts km/h - MINIMAL damage Cat 2 - Gusts km/h - MODERATE damage Cat 3 - Gusts km/h - MAJOR damage Cat 4 - Gusts km/h - DEVASTATING Cat 5 - Gusts 280+ km/h - EXTREME event

18 5 Tier Cyclone Warning Service 1. Tropical Cyclone Outlook - issued daily during the cyclone season 2. Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletin issued 6 hourly when the cyclone is well out to sea 3. Cyclone Watch issued 6 hourly, coastal gales 24/48 hours 4. Cyclone Warning issued 3 hourly, coastal gales within 24 hours increasing to hourly when TC observed on weather radar 5. Severe Weather Warning issued 3 hourly when the former cyclone is inland and weakening

19 Median position error Australian Region 2009/ /12

20 Tropical Cyclone Tracks WA Region

21 Tropical Cyclone Tracks(7) plus the non-developers(9) in the WA Region Season

22 TC Bianca January 2011

23 TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI

24 TC Yasi Forecast Tracks

25 Tropical Cyclone Yasi Still a category 2 cyclone north of Richmond. Wind gusts to 111 km/hr at Richmond. Wind gusts to 98 km/hr at Julia Creek. Wind gusts to 70 km/hr at Mount Isa. Remnant low was traceable into the N.T. and then S.A. before leading to heavy rainfall in VIC.

27 TC Yasi near Willis Island Deepest convection located on the south side of the system, indicating the area of strongest winds. Stronger winds also in the southern side due to the translational motion of the system.

28 Track of TC YASI with extent of hurricane, storm & gale force winds Bright RED = Hurricane force winds

29 TC YASI Small Spread & consistent forecast track for almost a week leading up to landfall

30 Yasi Deep layer steering flow

31 Yasi/Ului Verification vs 5 year average

32 TC Carlos February 2011

33 TC Carlos Track uncertainty

34 TC Carlos Over Darwin Feb 2011 Photos courtesy of NT News

35 645 mm in 72 hours 645 mm in 72 hours

Darwin across Van Diemen Gulf gales in southern sectors 50 kt gust

36 TC Laurence, 8-18 Dec 2009 Incipient TC over Darwin Watch current for Tiwi Islands Severe Weather Warning for Darwin area approach to Darwin across Van Diemen Gulf gales in southern sectors 50 kt gust Darwin Airport mm in 48 hours Top-Down TC genesis in Timor Sea

37 Pre-TC Laurence over Darwin 12 December 2009 Photos courtesy of NT News

38 TC Olga, January; Pre-TC Neville, January - TC Olga in eastern Gulf of Carpentaria - TC Neville in Coral Sea - Watch/Warning for NT coast - Darwin and Brisbane TCWCs activated -

39 TC Paul, 26 March 3 April 2010 Photos courtesy of NT News

41 Historic Evolution of Skill at ECMWF Source: Martin Miller, ECMWF

42 ECMWF Horizontal Grid Spacing Halving Every 7 Years Source: Neil Gordon

43 NexGen Forecasting and Warning System Graphical Forecast Editor Developed in US for National Weather Service modified for Australia by BoM Pilot project in Victoria 2008 NSW September 2010 TAS June 2011 SA Spring 2011 WA October 2012

About the System Meteorologists prepare forecasts by editing grids of each

Grids are spaced at 3km intervals across all of Victoria and 6km in NSW

Today: Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain.

44 About the System Meteorologists prepare forecasts by editing grids of each weather element. Grids are spaced at 3km intervals across all of Victoria and 6km in NSW Grids edited for rainfall, temperature, wind and many more elements. Today: Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain. Temperature reaching 23 degrees. Grids prepared for every hour of the next 7 days for some elements. Products and worded forecasts are produced automatically from the grids.

45 GFE Grid Overview 6 km resolution Out to 7 days Worded and tabular forecasts are generated automatically from the forecaster-edited grids

The Forecast Explorer Graphical Forecasts Graphical forecasts via the Forecast Explorer Wind speed & wind direction using arrows, temperature & rainfall.

46 The Forecast Explorer Graphical Forecasts Graphical forecasts via the Forecast Explorer Wind speed & wind direction using arrows, temperature & rainfall. Colour coded area wind speeds 3-6 km resolution 3 hour time intervals for 72 hours 6 hour time intervals hours (7 days) Ability to select anywhere on the map and obtain weather forecast information for that point

they are combined to form the Australian Digital Forecast

47 Australian Digital Forecast Database (ADFD) Each GFE office transmits its published forecast grids to Head Office, where they are combined to form the Australian Digital Forecast Database (ADFD). This the data source for new web and data services

48 The Tropics And Larger Domains Science work for the Tropics has begun. Information from TC module will be fed into the grids More probabilistic forecast rather than deterministic Wind probabilities a Monte Carlo approach to look at possibilities Challenges of domain sizes, resolutions and editing times etc

49 TC Lua Surface Winds from GFE

50 TC Lua SigWave Heights from GFE

51 Australian NWP - ACCESS Unified Model ACCESS-G ACCESS-R ACCESS-TC ACCESS- SREP, Fire Wx ACCESS-C The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

52 ACCESS Domains Global (N320 ~40km) TC 12km Aust/Regional 12km CityBased 4km

53 Operational verification, August October 2012 Australian Region 48h Southern annulus 96h The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

54 Strategic Radar Enhancement Project, SREP Next generation City systems Higher resolution prediction Test UM at 1.5km ( o ) Higher resolution observations Radar wind & cloud/precip Data quality? Assimilation 3dVAR at 3km Standard observations Doppler winds Precip / clouds Latent heat nudging SREP should deliver significant mesoscale NWP upgrades for Australia

(size, etc), ET and Heavy Rain Landfall!

55 Tropical Cyclone Characteristics in the Australian Region TC behaviour and forecast issues: Track, Genesis, Intensification/RI/Decay, Structure Change (size, etc), ET and Heavy Rain Landfall!!! Points of Origin Points with Min. CP (Dare and Davidson, 2004, MWR) Points of Final Decay

56 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

57 ACCESS Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System, AGREPS AGREPS is being run routinely in research mode 24 members Regional ensemble run to 3-days The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology 57

ACCESS-TC 500 hpa vertical motion field at t = 6 (initialized with 4DVAR) and

active inner rainbands and eyewall convection, and corresponding forecast

Based on use of synthetic MSLP obs and 4DVAR, structures are consistent from

58 Validation of Vortex Structure. Cloud Bands and Convective Asymmetries 85GHz Imagery (left panels) and ACCESS-TC 500 hpa vertical motion field at t = 6 (initialized with 4DVAR) and t = 55 hours for Yasi from base time 00Z, Note regions of observed active inner rainbands and eyewall convection, and corresponding forecast regions of strong and weak ascent. Based on use of synthetic MSLP obs and 4DVAR, structures are consistent from even the early hours of the forecast. Rainfall in TCs (Ying Jun Chen) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

59 Application of ACCESS-TC to Genesis Forecasting: 72, 60, 48, 36 hour forecasts verifying at 00UTC, : ~ Genesis time for Grant.

ACCESS-TC TC research priorities TC Climatology and climate change Develop a physical link between climate models and severe weather TC Genesis Boundary layer of TCs Surface winds, ocean-atmosphere

60 ACCESS-TC TC research priorities TC Climatology and climate change Develop a physical link between climate models and severe weather TC Genesis Boundary layer of TCs Surface winds, ocean-atmosphere interaction including the effects of waves Secondary eyewall formation Boundary-layer parameterisation Mid-latitude tropical interactions TC Rainfall Storm Surge Rapid Intensification The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

61 Training and Competency Assessment TC Competency Assessor/trainer - Joe Courtney Annual Training Program for all TC Forecasters Assessment of TC forecasters against agreed competencies International Training SH TC, SW Pacific, Indonesia, Vietnam

62 Thank you. (TC Laurence)

Fire Weather Drivers, Seasonal Outlook and Climate Change. Steven McGibbony, Severe Weather Manager Victoria Region Friday 9 October 2015

Fire Weather Drivers, Seasonal Outlook and Climate Change Steven McGibbony, Severe Weather Manager Victoria Region Friday 9 October 2015 Outline Weather and Fire Risk Environmental conditions leading to