Chart 1 Mitigation Options for Air Traffic: Routing Changes Volker Grewe DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre

Transcription

1 Chart 1 Mitigation Options for Air Traffic: Routing Changes Volker Grewe DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre

2 Chart 2 Routing Options Standard flight trajectory PhD of Koch (2014) and Dahlmann (2012) CATS: Lower flight altitude and reduced speed ISO: Intermediate Stop Operations Climate sensitive REACT4C/WeCare: Climate friendly routing Grewe et al. (2014a,b) PhD of Linke (submitted 2015) Interdisciplinary work: Aircraft design Flight routing Atmospheric science

3 Chart 3 Routing Options Standard flight trajectory PhD of Koch (2014) and Dahlmann (2012) CATS: Lower flight altitude and reduced speed

4 Chart 4 DLR-Project CATS: Climate Compatible Air Transport System Focus on a long-range aircraft Koch et al., 2011 Koch (2013) Dahlmann (2012) Dahlmann et al. (2015) =AirClim

5 Chart 5 CATS optimisation approach Variation of altitude and speed New aircraft Relation costs and climate New design point Koch, 2013

6 Chart 6 A330: Potential of a climate change reduction: CATS-results Variation in speed an cruise altitude 30% Reduction in climate change with 5% increase in costs 64% Reduction in climate change with 32% increase in costs (w/o adaption of aircraft) (Dahlmann, 2012) (Koch et al., 2011)

7 Chart 7 CATS Final results Cumulative potential for all routes operated by redesigned A/C Max Mach / Max Altitude 10500m Redesigned A/C considerably improves climate impact mitigation potential and cost penalty Koch (2013)

8 Chart 8 Routing Options Standard flight trajectory ISO: Intermediate Stop Operations PhD of Linke (submitted 2015)

9 Chart 9 Intermediate Stop Operations: Previous research Focus so far: Fuel savings potential incl. cost savings estimation Generic mission level (analytical): Green (2006), Nangia (2006), Hahn (2007), Poll (2011), Creemers and Slingerland (2007), Langhans et al. (2011), Lammering et al. (2011), Tyagi and Crossley (2009) Fleet and global level (real routes & airports, numerical and analytical): Langhans et al. (2010), Linke et al. (2011), Poll (2011), Lammering et al. (2011), Martinez-Val et al. (2012), Perez and Jansen (2014) gross savings (1 stop): redesign: 13-23% existing aircraft: 5-15% net savings (1 stop): redesign: 10-11% Nearly all studies conclude that due to the high fuel savings ISO would have a positive impact on the environment......but no system-wide ecological analysis of the concept has been done! Courtesy F. Linke

10 Chart 10 Methodology A modeling system to assess new operational concepts Accurate A/C performance models (sensitivities of fuel burn on operating point) BADA4 Realistic flight operations Vertical profile optimization (step climbs) Route optimization Emission model (Boeing Fuel Flow Method 2) Climate Response Model Complexity reduction by use of emission profiles Real atmosphere and wind distributions Linke (2015); Linke et al. (2015)

11 Chart 11 Methodology: Scenario and assumptions Reference: 1st quarter 2010 Self-substitution Widebodies only; All flights > 2500 NM considered Modeled with BADA 4 99,5% of all flights ISO airport selection: Fuel-optimal Available take-off field length (daily meteo) Data sources: Movements: ADI (schedules, similar to OAG) Load factors: IATA statistics Meteorology: ECMWF TOFL: Airport planning manuals Emission indices: ICAO EED Linke (2015); Linke et al. (2015)

12 Chart 12 Results - Generic mission profile Changes in flight and emission profiles Below cruise flight level: Small contribution to overall fuel consumption! ~100% increase in CO emissions ~75% increase in HC emissions (low thrust setting during additional landing) NO x -emission increase by 40-50% (lower weight steeper climb less time spent below CFL) Negative impact on local air quality at ISO airports In reality, airports are not ideally located need for a system-wide analysis: real routes Initial CFL shifts upward real A/C types by 4000 ft (optimum altitude) real airports Example: A NM mission with ideal intermediate stop Linke (2015); Linke et al. (2015)

13 Chart 13 Results Changes in fuel consumption Northward Ground distance: +0.4% Air distance: -0.15% (often wind-optimal airports can be found) Fuel consumption: -4,8% Latitude [ ] Emissions increase at ISO airports Altitude [km] Higher Flight level [100 ft] Longitude [ ] Emissions decrease at departure airports Linke (2015); Linke et al. (2015)

14 Chart 14 Intermediate Stop Operations (ISO): Climate Impact Climate impact question is here: How is the long-term mean temperature changing changed when long-range operations are performed by ISO? ATR 100 for future air traffic scenario compare to reference without ISO Climate Impact increases by 2.3% Species Temp change Reason CO 2 Decrease Less fuel consumption O 3 Increase Less NOx, but higher altitude! CH 4 / PMO Increase Less NOx, but less altitude dependent H 2 O Increase Higher altitude (strong increase in lifetime) Contrails Decrease Northward and upward Total Increase Warming from NO x and H 2 O dominates over cooling from CO 2 and contrails Linke (2015); Linke et al. (2015)

15 Chart 15 Routing Options Standard flight trajectory Climate sensitive REACT4C/WeCare: Climate friendly routing Grewe et al. (2014a,b)

16 Chart 16 Evolution of aircraft NO x at two different locations A B What happens if an aircraft emits NO x at location A compared to location B?

17 Chart 17 Evolution of O 3 [ppt] following a NO x pulse A: 250hPa, 40 N, 60 W, 12 UTC B: 250hPa, 40 N, 30 W, 12 UTC Pressure [hpa] Change in NO x and Ozone mass EMAC Symposium Februar 2012

18 Chart 18 Climate optimized routing by using climate cost functions Climate cost functions: = Measure for climate impact of individual aviation emissions depending on emission location, emission altitude, and local emission time Depending on weather situation Aviation impacts investigated: Ozone, methane + primary mode ozone, contrails, water vapour, CO 2 Climate cost function is given as number with units Kelvin per kg emission Grewe et al., 2014ab

19 Chart 19 Weather situation at cruise levels Strong jet stream, basically in West-East direction Geopotential heights Wind velocity Low 65 m/s Jet stream 65 m/s = 230 km/h = 120 kn Grewe et al., 2014b

20 Chart 20 Climate cost functions at 200 hpa for 12:00 UTC Contrail-Cirrus Ozone Contrails complex: Depending on - Lifetime - Solar angle day/night - Transport - Loss processes Methane Total NO x Chemistry: Ozone / NOx pattern - Follows meteorology - Jet: Large values - Low pressure: Smaller values Grewe et al., Atmos. Environm., 2014b

21 Chart 21 Air Traffic One day ~800 flights between USA and Real air traffic taken into account Europe Flight simulations performed by Eurocontrol Optimisation: Costs: Fuel and Crew Climate with different metrics

22 Chart 22 Relation between costs and climate: Pareto front Climate optimal solution at higher costs Large potential for climate impact reduction (25%) at low costs (0.5%) Grewe et al., 2014b

23 Chart 23 Relation between costs and climate: Pareto front Eastbound traffic has less climate reduction potential, because it is more bound to the jet stream: Leaving the jet stream leads to fuel and NO x penalties Grewe et al., 2014b

24 Chart 24 How is the air traffic modified? Changes along the Pareto-Front 0% Grewe et al., 2014b

25 Chart 25 How is the air traffic modified? Changes along the Pareto-Front 25% Only small changes in flight altitude Grewe et al., 2014b

26 Chart 26 How is the air traffic modified? Changes along the Pareto-Front 50% Some flights are shifted to lower flight altitudes Grewe et al., 2014b

27 Chart 27 How is the air traffic modified? Changes along the Pareto-Front 75% Many flights shifted from FL380 to FL300 Grewe et al., 2014b

28 Chart 28 How is the air traffic modified? Changes along the Pareto-Front 100% Main flight altitude: FL 300 Grewe et al., 2014b

29 Chart 29 Horizontal re-routing is effective Courtesy: DKRZ

30 Chart 30 Climatology based on 8 representative weather situations Less difference between East- and Westbound traffic than for the zonal jet situation More possibilities to optimise: Larger climate impact reduction in some summer situation than in all winter situations Pareto front is more curved

31 Chart 31 Scoping Study: Closing airspace as a measure to avoid climate sensitive regions Climate sensitive regions Investigation of one route Study indicates that climate optimal routing might be well achieved by airspace closing. First results, more research needed. Costs increase Optimal solution Solution from closing of airspace Climate impact reduction Niklaß et al., 2015

32 Chart 32 Research to do on the way to implementation: Atmospheric Science: Algorithm based CCF Predictability Validation of mitigation potential ATM Research Implementation of CCFs and feasibility tests Impact on ATM Economical / Social Market-Based Measures Valueing of non-co 2 effects Quatification procedure

33 Chart 33 Conclusions I: Atmospheric uncertainties More research needed to reduce atmospheric uncertainties! Embrace compexity! Include uncertainties in climate impact assessment

34 Chart 34 Conclusions II: Analysis of future options Suggest and sketch Detailed calculation in interdisciplinay framework Past Today

35 Chart 35 Conclusions III: Comparison of different mitigation options is difficult because of different requirements Investment costs Implementation time scale Operating costs Mitigation options Political and financial framework Climate impact reduction Eco-Efficiency

36 Thank Thank you you for for your your attention attention

37 Chart 38 References Dahlmann, K., Eine Methode zur effizienten Bewertung von Maßahmen zur Klimaoptimierung des Luftverkehrs. Ph.D. thesis. Fak. Für Phys., Ludwigs-Maximilians-Universität München. Dahlmann, K., Grewe, V., Frömming, C., Burkhardt, U., Can we reliably assess climate mitigation options for air traffic scenarios despite large uncertainties in atmospheric processes?, revised, Trans. Res Grewe, V., and Dahlmann, K.: How ambiguous are climate metrics? And are we prepared to assess and compare the climate impact of new air traffic technologies?, Atmos. Environm. 106, , doi: /j.atmosenv , Grewe, V., Frömming, C., Matthes, S., Brinkop, S., Ponater, M., Dietmüller, S., Jöckel, P., Garny, H., Dahlmann, K., Tsati, E., Søvde, O. A., Fuglestvedt, J., Berntsen, T. K., Shine, K. P., Irvine, E. A., Champougny, T., and Hullah, P.: Aircraft routing with minimal climate impact: The REACT4C climate cost function modelling approach (V1.0), Geosci. Model Dev. 7, , doi: /gmd , Grewe, V., Champougny, T., Matthes, S., Frömming, C., Brinkop, S., Søvde, A.O., Irvine,E.A., Halscheidt, L., Reduction of the air traffic's contribution to climate change: A REACT4C case study, /j.atmosenv , Atmos. Environm. 94, , Koch, A., Climate impact mitigation potentail given by flight profile and aircraft optimization. Ph.D. thesis. Technische Universität Hamburg-Harburg. DLR-Forschungsbericht Linke, F. Ökologische Analyse operationeller Lufttransportkonzepte. Dissertation, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), thesis submitted (2015) Linke, F.; Grewe, V.; Gollnick, V. The Implications of Intermediate Stop Operations on Aviation Emissions and Climate. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, In preparation (2015) Niklaß, M., Lührs, B., Grewe, V., Luckova, T., and Gollnick, V., POTENTIAL TO REDUCE THE CLIMATE IMPACT OF AVIATION BY CLOSURE OF AIRSPACES, ATSR, 2015.