CLIMATE CHANGE & CRITICAL RESOURCES. Iratxe González-Aparicio Tlfn:

Transcription

1 CLIMATE CHANGE & CRITICAL RESOURCES Iratxe González-Aparicio Tlfn:

2 OUTLINE 1. Introduction. IPCC last releases 2. Regional Models and Data 3. Scenarios of Climate Change in the Basque Region 4. Critical Resources Future Urban Atmosphere 5. Scenarios of the Urban Boundary Layer over Bilbao 6. Conclusions 7. Some Useful References

3 1. INTRODUCTION. IPCC last releases IPCC Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation Is climate change leading to increase in the number and severity of extreme events? How do social and environmental factors interact with weather and climate events to create disasters? What can be done to make societies more resilient to extremes? IPCC Assessment Reports: 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007 The Fifth AR will appear in four stages in 2013 and 2014.

4 3. Regional Models and Data Escenarios Climáticos: Proyecto ENSEMBLES ENSEMBLES Características Escala Regional Resolución 25 km * 25 km Esc. Emisiones A1B Periodo de referencia Escenarios futuros //2100

5 3. Climate Change in the Basque Country 90th percentile of the Tmax Ensemble Av. 35.6ºC Spread:3.5ºC Stdv:1.41ºC Ensemble Av. 37.8ºC Spread:6.52ºC Stdv:2.54ºC Ensemble Av. 39.7ºC Spread: 4.6ºC Stdv:1.87ºC Future projection: trend: 3ºC Stdv ºC Spread: 4.2ºC

6 3. Climate Change in the Basque Country Heat Waves duration Obs. Av. 1.3 heat waves Freq: 13.7 days Temp: 29 ºC Ensembles Freq. 1-2 heat waves Av days [12%] Ensembles Freq. 1-2 heat waves Av days [16%] Ensembles Freq. 1-3 heat waves Av days [22%] Temp involved 34.7 ºC Temp involved 34.3 ºC Temp involved 34.2 ºC

7 3. Climate Change in the Basque Country 10th percentile Tmin Ensemble Av ºC Spread: 1.8ºC Stdv: 0.71ºC Ensemble Av ºC Spread: 1.72ºC Stdv:0.68ºC Ensemble Av ºC Spread:1.5ºC Stdv: 0.92ºC Future scenario: trend: 3ºC Stdv ºC Spread: 1.83ºC

8 3. Climate Change in the Basque Country Number of frost days Ensemble Av d Stdv: 3.5 d Ensemble Av d Stdv: 3.9 d Ensemble Av. 7.5 d Stdv: 3.57 d Future scenario ( ) Decrease 50% of days Respect with Ref. Period

9 3. Climate Change in the Basque Country Cold Waves duration Obs. Av cold waves Freq: 11.1 days [12%] Temp: 3.3 ºC Ensembles Freq. 1-3 cold waves Av days [14%] Ensembles Freq. 1-2 cold waves Av days [9%] RACMO/REMO/ALADIN Freq. 1 cold wave Av. 6-9 days [8%] HIRHAM/CLM/PROMES: 0 Temp involved 2.7 ºC Temp involved 3.3 ºC Temp involved 1.3ºC

10 3. Climate Change in the Basque Country Summer Winter

11

12 3. Climate Change in the Basque Country SUMMER Rise in the air mean temperature leading to enhance the kinetic energy of the gas-phase equilibrium: i.e. the capacity to hold water vapour in the air increases. Linked with the positive slope in the specific humidity. Income short-wave radiation expected a reduction decrease in the cloudiness decrease of the modelled precipitation. A slight decrease wind speed, no significant changes in wind direction. WINTER Solar radiation evolution indicated a decrease, more cloudiness more probability of rain. Rise air mean temperature increase specific humidity + water vapour Change of the specific humidity in winter greater than summer greater moisten atmosphere by higher temperatures and precipitations.

13 4. CRITICAL RESOURCES Urban Atmosphere

14

15 Winter: /24-29 January : Cold Summer air mass from July N-C 2009: Europe The air mass - Pressure swept Ridge into the Central Bilbao Europe valley from the S-E dir, pushed by - Anticliclonic a high pressure conditions ridge placed in the north of the - Temp: Great 21. Britain. 8ºC Strong winds, 11.4 ºC a southern - Diurnal warm sea breeze air mass blows was from transported NW-N-NE northward through the - Nocturnal Atlantic Ocean, valley breezes displacing from the the cold SE air masses to the south through Central Europe

16

17

18

19 GENERATION OF URBAN SCENARIOS FOR BILBAO Base de datos: UDALPLAN

20

21

22 6. General Conclusions Local Climate and Atmospheric Composition is affected by Regional Variability + Urban Development The Basque Country Region is affected by Climatic Change expecting a Worsen of Extreme Events. At present, in the Bilbao metropolitan area, under specific conditions, it appears critical situations enhancing the extreme meteo conditions and atmospheric compo. levels Under different urban scenarios, the Critical situations are Much more pronounced.

23 Some Additional References: González-Aparicio, I., Nuterman R., Korsholm U.S., Mahura A., Acero J.A., Hidalgo J. & Baklanov A. PROCESSING OF LAND-USE DATABASE FOR MESO-SCALE MODEL URBANIZATION. Newsletter 9, NL , p.9 González-Aparicio, I., Nuterman R., Korsholm U.S., Mahura A., Acero J.A., Hidalgo J. & Baklanov A. LAND-USE DATABASE PROCESSING APPROACH FOR MESO-SCALE URBAN NWP MODEL INITIALIZATION. DMI Scientific Report 10-02, 34 pages. ISBN: , 2010 Alexander Mahura, Roman Nuterman, Iratxe Gonzalez-Aparicio, Claus Petersen, Alexander Baklanov & Ulrik Korsholm. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING IN METROPOLITAN AREAS. Scientific Report. DMI /In preparation/ Nuterman R., Baklanov A., Mahura A., Zakey A., Korsholm U., Bjarne A. & González-Aparicio I. MULTI-SCALE AIR QUALITY FORECAST: DOWNSCALING FROM REGIONAL TO STREET SCALE. Newsletter 9, NL , p.10 González- Aparicio I., Nuterman R., Korsholm U., Mahura A., Hidalgo J. & Baklanov A URBAN SCALE MODELLING FOR A MEGACITY AND A MEDIUM SIZE CITY: EVALUATING SULPHATE AEROSOL INDIRECT EFFECT. European Geoscience Union. General Assembly. AS3.6: Megacities: Air Quality and climate impacts from local to global scales. Vienna 3-8 April 2010.

24 Baklanov a, Korsholm U., Mahura A., Zakey A, Nuterman R, Sass B, Nielsen C, Kaas E, Sorensen B, Gonzalez-Aparicio I. Enviro-HIRLAM ONLINE INTEGRATED ACT-NWP MODELING SYSTEM WITH TWO-WAY INTERACTIONS: HISTORY AND CURRENT STATUS. European Geoscience Union. General Assembly. AS3.6: Megacities: Air Quality and climate impacts from local to global scales. Vienna 3-8 April Nuterman R, Baklanov A, Zakey A, Amstrup B, González-Aparicio I, Weisman J. MULTI-SCALE METEOROLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL WEATHER FORECASTING WITH DOWNSCALING MODEL SYSTEM. M Sofiev, M Prank, J Kukkonen, A Segers, P Builtjes, H D van der Gon, U Korsholm, I Gonzalez-Aparicio, R Nuterman, A Mahura, A Baklanov, S Pandis. EVALUATION AND IMPROVEMENT OF REGIONAL MODEL SIMULATIONS FOR MEGACITY PLUMES. MEGAPOLI Technical Note Helsinki, Mahura A, González-Aparicio I., Baklanov A., Evaluation of Environmental Pollution from Severonickel Plant, Kola Peninsula. Manuscript in prepatation for Meteorology and Hydrology journal. González-Aparicio, I. and Hidalgo, J. RECENT TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS FOR THE NORTHERN IBERIAN PENINSULA. A BIAS CORRECTION METHOD FOR CLIMATIC INDICES EXPRESSED IN A DAILY BASED FREQUENCY. International Journal of Climatology [Submitted]. 11th International Conference of Statistical Climatology. Oral presentation. July, 2010.

25 Thank you for your attention Iratxe González-Aparicio Tlfn: