An Isentropic Perspective on Two Cases of Elevated Convection. Patrick S. Market Dept. of Soil, Env. & Atmospheric Sciences University of Missouri
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1 An Isentropic Perspective on Two Cases of Elevated Convection Patrick S. Market Dept. of Soil, Env. & Atmospheric Sciences University of Missouri
2 Elevated Convection INTRODUCTION
3 Colman (1990a,b) Initiated the modern era of elevated convection studies Showed the preferred region of elevated convection in US northeast of a surface cyclone north of its attendant warm front
4 Colman (1990a,b) More importantly, suggested that these elevated layers were often devoid of convective available potential energy (CAPE) This latter finding suggests an environment ill-suited to deep, moist thunderstorm towers.
5 Later work Yet, ensuing studies have shown elevated convection can result in Heavy rainfall (Rochette and Moore 1996) Heavy snowfall (Moore et al. 1998) Severe weather Grant (1995) Horgan et al. (2006, 2007) Colby and Walker (2007)
6 Even later work Further study by Rochette et al. (1999) heightened the contrast with the findings of Colman (1990a,b) showing that there were environments of elevated convection that had significant CAPE
7 Even later work Wetzel and Martin (2001) showed decisively that the presence of instability could enhance snowfall totals Moore et al. (2003) described the processes leading to a less stable environment as ones leading to greater precipitation totals
8 Even later work Knox and Schultz (2006) factors not related to buoyancy might be related to elevated convection Specifically, atmosphere might also be susceptible to inertial (horizontal) instability, especially on the equatorward side of jet streak structures
9 Even later work Corfidi et al. (2006) examined the nature of altocumulus castellanus determined that the division between elevated and surface-based [convective] activity is rarely distinct.
10 Elevated Convection METHODOLOGY
11 Trajectory Analyses For this talk, NAM-WRF solutions used Good subjective verification for both cases GFS and RUC trajectories are being created for comparison Ongoing
12 Trajectory Analyses Trajectory specs 180 minute (3-hr time step) Isentropic Backwards from location of interest
13 Elevated Convection CASE STUDY 28 NOVEMBER 2005 W MINNESOTA
14 12Z 2005 Nov 28
15 12Z 2005 Nov 28
16 12Z 2005 Nov mb
17 12Z 2005 Nov mb
18 12Z 2005 Nov mb
19 12Z 2005 Nov mb
20 12Z 2005 Nov mb
21 12Z 2005 Nov 28 RADAR
22 Storm total snow (in.), Nov 2005
23 2005 Nov Z Redevelopment of lightning in NE Emergence of trowal feature And a unique double trowal signature Evolution of meso- circulations Significant banded precipitation underway
24 2005 Nov 28 - Fergus Falls, MN
25 2005 Nov 28 21Z NAM 21-hr fcst FFM sndg
26 2005 Nov 28 21Z VIS Sat
27 2005 Nov 28 21Z IR Sat
28 2005 Nov 28 21Z WV Sat
29 2005 Nov 28 21Z Sounder CTP
30 2005 Nov 28 21Z RADAR
31 2005 Nov 28 IR Loop 13Z-23Z
32 2005 Nov 28 RADAR Loop 18Z-23Z
33 2005 Nov 28 - Fergus Falls, MN
34 2005 Nov K Trajectory Swarm
35 2005 Nov hr 298K trajectory with pressure at F012
36 294K white 296K red 298K green 300K blue 302K gold 2005 Nov 28 Vertical airstream structure
37 Elevated Convection CASE STUDY 21 FEBRUARY SW MISSOURI
38 METARS 21 February 2008 KJLN Z AUTO 05010KT 10SM OVC027 M02/M12 A3009 KJLN Z AUTO 07009KT 10SM OVC025 M02/M11 A3006 KJLN Z AUTO 07010KT 10SM OVC025 M01/M11 A3004 KJLN Z AUTO 08014G20KT 10SM OVC023 M01/M09 A3001 KJLN Z 08010G16KT 5SM TS -FZRA BR FEW015 BKN020 OVC055 M02/M04 A2999 KJLN Z 08011KT 4SM TS FZRA BR OVC013 M02/M04 A2997 RMK AO2 PRESFR P0003 KJLN Z 07010G14KT 1 3/4SM FZRA BR OVC007 M01/M03 A2998 KJLN Z 09009KT 3SM TS -FZRA BR FEW006 BKN027 OVC035 M01/M02 A2999 RMK AO2 TSB02 P0014 KJLN Z 10008KT 2 1/2SM TS FZRA BR SCT006 BKN020 OVC070 M01/M02 A2998 KJLN Z 10009KT 3SM TS -FZRA BR BKN006 OVC017 00/M02 A2994
39 METARS 21 February 2008
40 Surface 12Z 21 February 2008
41 Surface 12Z 21 February 2008
42 850 mb 12Z 21 February 2008
43 500 mb 12Z 21 February 2008
44 250 mb 12Z 21 February 2008
45 WV 12Z 21 February 2008
46 IR 12Z 21 February 2008
47 IR 21 February 2008
48 WV 21 February 2008
49 SGF 88D 21 February 2008
50 NLDN 21 February 2008
51 SGF sounding (OBS) 12Z - 21 February 2008
52 SGF sounding (RUC) 12Z - 21 February 2008
53 NAM Forecast - JLN Time Height Section - 21 February 2008
54 JLN
55 NAM-WRF 294K Trajectory swarm F000-F012 from 00Z 21 February 2008 run
56 NAM-WRF Forecast 294K p and Ψ, F012 from 00Z 21 February 2008
57 NAM-WRF Forecast 294K ω, F012 from 00Z 21 February 2008
58 NAM-WRF Trajectory 294K F000-F012 from 00Z 21 February 2008 run
59 NAM-WRF Vertical airstream structure F000-F012 from 00Z 21 February 2008 run 290K red (9 hr) 292K green (9 hr) 294K green 296K blue 298K gold
60 Summary Subtle differences can influence trajectory Horizontal location Vertical location Time period of trajectory Parcel crashes not always a bad thing Help to define origins of air feeding convection
61 Thank you! Comments? Questions? Crisiticism?
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