Premier Vision. May 2017

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1 Premier Vision May 2017

2 Contents Tax Free Trends Summary 03 Tax Free Sales Trends 05 Feature: South Korean Tourists Increasingly Venturing into Europe 07 Tax Free Sales by Destination and Source 08 Top 5 Visitor Nations per Destination Country 10 Currency Trends 12 Arrivals Forecast Europe Overview 14 France 15 United Kingdom 16 Italy 17 Spain 18 Germany 19 Singapore 20 Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 02

3 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary May % Total Sales +19% Total Vouchers +5% Total ATV +13% Total Arrivals Top 5 Destination Markets Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals FRA +26% +15% +9% +8% CHN +34% +27% +5% +31% GBR +38% +38% -0% +13% USA +37% +14% +20% +16% ITA +25% +23% +2% +8% RUS +22% +36% -10% +33% ESP +27% +15% +10% +21% KOR +71% +63% +5% +17% DEU +14% +11% +3% +16% HKG +59% +55% +2% +29% Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 03

4 Shopping & Arrivals Growth Summary Year to Date +21% Total Sales +16% Total Vouchers +5% Total ATV +12% Total Arrivals Top 5 Destination Markets Top 5 Source Markets Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals Tax Free Sales Turnover Vouchers/ Transaction Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Arrivals FRA +20% +5% +15% +13% CHN +32% +24% +6% +18% GBR +35% +31% +3% +13% RUS +14% +39% -18% +19% ITA +26% +27% -1% +9% USA +30% +15% +13% +18% ESP +22% +11% +9% +19% HKG +63% +35% +21% +14% DEU +7% +3% +3% +5% TWN +52% +48% +3% +14% Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 04

5 Tax Free Sales: Overview & Source Market Trends May 2017 Overview Tax Free Shopping sales gained significant momentum in May, with sales growth of 25% representing the highest gains seen since July 2015, where the first half of 2015 saw significant gains in Tax Free Shopping sales. Furthermore, the transaction growth of 19%, was higher than seen at any point in 2015, whilst Average Transaction Values also continued to see gains with growth of 5% in the month. Whilst all major destination markets saw continued momentum, growth in the month was further boosted with a return to double-digit growth in Germany and France, following the 1% decline and 7% growth, respectively, in the prior month. On year to date basis, sales have increased by 21%, with gains spread across a diverse range of destination and source markets. BRIC and Next-11 nations provide platform for strong gains in May Sales to BRIC nations saw growth of 31% in May following the 33% growth in sales to these tourists in April, and the 29% increase in Q Sales to Russian and Indian tourists saw gains of 22% whilst sales to Chinese and Brazilian tourists increased by 35%, and with the BRIC nations representing 38% of tourist sales on a YTD basis, this provided the platform for the significant gains seen in the month. The Next-11 was the term coined by Goldman Sachs for the next group of countries, along with the BRIC nations, that would have the potential to rank amongst the world s largest economies in the 21st century, with this list comprising of Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey, South Korea and Vietnam. Tax Free sales to this group of nations saw growth of 29% in May, with sales to tourists from Mexico, the Philippines and Pakistan evidencing gains of 30%+, whilst sales to Vietnamese tourists saw growth of 58%. However, these gains were eclipsed by the 72% growth in sales to South Korean tourists, which saw these tourists elevated to 4th position in top ranking nationalities in the month. Dragon Boat Festival provides tourism boost with 31% increase in China arrivals in May The China National Tourism Administration (CNTA) reported that Chinese tourists made 2.71 million outbound trips during the three day Dragon Boat Festival between 28-30th May, with the most popular overseas destinations including Russia, Thailand, Italy, Vietnam and France. This public holiday saw Chinese tourist arrivals increase by 31% to the main European destinations, and also saw significant gains in tourists from Hong Kong and Taiwan, with growth of 29% and 48%, respectively. These were also boosted by national holidays for Labour day and the Buddha s birthday at the start of the month. Whilst the timing of this three day event will also likely manifest in a boost to sales in June, as a result of the timing of the festival running from 9-11th June in 2016, arrivals numbers are predicted to fall by a modest 4% in June However, the timing of the end of Ramadan in June, is expected to more than adequately compensate for the predicted fall in Chinese tourists, with 57% growth expected for tourists from GCC nations. Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 05

6 Tax Free Sales: Destination Market Trends May 2017 UK and France post strong gains, but recent terror attacks suggest cautious optimism prevails Sales growth in France and the UK continued the positive trajectory seen in recent months, with gains of 26% and 38%, respectively. Whilst these gains ostensibly represent ongoing confidence to travel to these destinations, with increasing numbers of tourists reported in London & Paris, a degree of cautious optimism should be maintained. The context for the gains in May are that sales declined by 25% and 6% in France and the UK, respectively in May 2016, thereby distorting growth comparisons. Additionally, whilst the reaction to the Westminster and Champs Elysees attacks were relatively muted, it is too early to qualify the effect of more recent attacks in Manchester, London Bridge and Notre Dame. Although early indications on the effect of the Manchester attack suggested limited impact, this could be compounded by more recent events. Sales in Southern European destinations continue to bask in increasing tourism Whilst Spain has continued to be the bastion for increasing tourism and sales in recent years, providing the European antidote for aversion to travel to terror hit European destinations, arrivals and sales to other major Southern European destinations are have also surged in popularity and attractiveness in Although sales across all European destinations saw double-digit gains in May, sales in Southern European destinations such as Greece and Portugal saw growth of 35% and 50%, respectively in May. Additionally, whilst Spain continues to benefit as a major European destination, Italy has exhibited particularly strong gains in 2017 and is increasingly emerging as the destination of choice in Italy has increasingly positioned itself as the safe European destination of choice with reports from China News Service highlighting the secondment of Chinese police officers to work with Italian police in scenic spots in Rome, Milan, Florence and Naples over the summer period, to help deter crimes against Chinese tourists. This follows the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the nations security forces in June Furthermore, growth comparisons in the UK will inherently be likely to be tempered somewhat in the coming months, based on the anniversary of the referendum outcome in June and subsequent devaluation of Sterling, and therefore delineating this from the effect of terror attacks will inherently be fraught with difficulty. Premier Vision May 2017

7 Feature: South Korean Tourists Increasingly Venturing into Europe Over the past four decades, notwithstanding the Asian financial crisis of , South Korea has witnessed sustained economic growth, referred to as an economic miracle by some commentators, resulting in a major transformation into a high-tech industrialised economy, which has elevated its status to become the 11th largest economy in the world. South Korea Tax Free Shopping Sales Growth: May 2017 DEU +101% GBR +192% FRA +58% ITA +60% South Korea Outbound Departures Growth: April 2017 AMERICAS +19% EUROPE +76% CHINA -58% S.E. ASIA +47% JAPAN +77% April 2016 Arrivals April 2017 Arrivals 3,529 3,866 7,088 12,466 34,536 14,585 35,552 52,382 40,449 71,567 This increasing prosperity has been concomitant with increasing outbound tourism, with the Korea Tourism Organisation predicting that outbound tourism will increase by 30% in However, amid recent political tensions with China, with the Chinese authorities deterring Chinese nationals from visiting South Korea, there has been a reciprocal reduction in tourism from South Korea to China. Although there are signals of these tensions easing, not least due to the recent election of the new president in South Korea, this has served to not only increase Chinese tourism to Europe, but has also given rise to an explosion in South Korean tourism to Europe. alternative destinations such as Europe and Japan, increased by 76%+ in April 2017, commensurate with a 58% decline in tourism to China. Furthermore, as reported by Hanatour, the largest travel agency in South Korea, outbound travel to Europe increased by 31% in May The sustained economic growth of South Korea has not only borne witness to almost uninterrupted growth in Tax Free shopping sales in Europe, but sales in May also saw the highest rate of growth to these tourists with gains of 72%, and triple-digit gains seen in a number of destination markets, which saw these tourists climb to the 4th most important nationality in May. With the Korea Tourism Organisation suggesting that increasingly competitive airfares means increasing numbers of individuals are opting for overseas travel, coupled with a strengthening Korean Won versus the Euro, suggests tourism from South Korea will continue to gain prominence for European retailers. ESP +129% According to Modetour, the second largest travel agency in South Korea, outbound travel to Premier Vision May 2017

8 Sales Performance May 2017 By Destination By Source Market FRA 26.2% CHN 33.8% GBR 38.2% USA 36.6% ITA 25.4% RUS 22.3% ESP 27.0% KOR 71.5% DEU 14.1% HKG 58.6% SGP -17.2% TWN 49.1% AUT 19.2% THA 16.7% CZE 60.0% IDN 13.9% IRL 17.4% UAE 15.0% PRT 50.6% KUW 4.5% Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 08

9 Sales Performance Year to Date By Destination By Source Market FRA 20.2% CHN 31.6% GBR 35.1% RUS 14.3% ITA 26.3% USA 30.2% ESP 21.7% HKG 62.7% DEU 7.0% TWN 52.4% SGP -10.3% KOR 26.7% AUT 20.2% THA 15.4% CZE 43.7% UAE 15.1% PRT 46.0% IDN 20.0% IRL 29.9% KUW 10.8% Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 09

10 Top 5 Visitor Nations Per Destination Country May 2017 Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales FRANCE CHINA 28% 1,703 32% USA 9% 1,364 45% SOUTH KOREA 8% % HONG KONG 7% 4,433 51% RUSSIA 5% 1,405 10% SINGAPORE CHINA 26% % INDIA 20% % INDONESIA 14% % VIETNAM 7% % THAILAND 3% % UK CHINA 21% % USA 8% % KUWAIT 6% 389 6% UAE 5% % HONG KONG 5% % AUSTRIA CHINA 24% % RUSSIA 12% % SWITZERLAND 12% % TAIWAN 6% % THAILAND 5% 621-1% ITALY CHINA 25% 1,037 40% RUSSIA 11% % USA 10% 1,104 30% TAIWAN 5% 1,222 35% SOUTH KOREA 3% % CZECH REP. RUSSIA 34% % CHINA 18% % TAIWAN 11% % SOUTH KOREA 9% % USA 4% % SPAIN CHINA 24% % USA 8% % RUSSIA 8% % ARGENTINA 6% % SOUTH KOREA 4% % IRELAND USA 37% % CHINA 35% % CANADA 4% 86-24% AUSTRALIA 3% 129-2% THAILAND 2% % GERMANY CHINA 38% % RUSSIA 11% % UAE 6% % THAILAND 5% 783-2% SWITZERLAND 3% 372-4% PORTUGAL CHINA 31% 1,887 72% BRAZIL 22% % ANGOLA 20% % RUSSIA 4% % USA 3% % Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 10

11 Top 5 Visitor Nations Per Destination Country YTD Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales Market Share Avg. Transaction Values (ATV) Year on Year Sales FRANCE CHINA 30% 1,771 30% HONG KONG 9% 5,340 81% USA 7% 1,319 27% RUSSIA 6% 1,529-0% SOUTH KOREA 6% % SINGAPORE CHINA 32% 426-9% INDONESIA 16% % INDIA 13% 626 1% VIETNAM 5% % MALAYSIA 3% % UK CHINA 23% % KUWAIT 7% % USA 7% % UAE 6% % HONG KONG 4% % AUSTRIA CHINA 19% % RUSSIA 18% % SWITZERLAND 14% 420 5% TAIWAN 7% % UKRAINE 5% 584 4% ITALY CHINA 29% 1,063 39% RUSSIA 13% % USA 7% 1,141 31% TAIWAN 6% 1,198 24% JAPAN 3% 858 5% CZECH REP. RUSSIA 38% % CHINA 16% % TAIWAN 13% % SOUTH KOREA 5% % UKRAINE 3% % SPAIN CHINA 28% % USA 7% % RUSSIA 7% % ARGENTINA 5% % SOUTH KOREA 4% % PORTUGAL CHINA 28% 1,718 30% BRAZIL 24% % ANGOLA 22% % RUSSIA 3% % USA 2% % GERMANY CHINA 33% 603 5% RUSSIA 13% % THAILAND 5% % UAE 5% 775-6% TAIWAN 4% % IRELAND CHINA 44% % USA 26% % AUSTRALIA 3% 160 3% CANADA 3% 110-2% UAE 2% 350 8% Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 11

12 Currency vs Euro & GBP: Top Source Markets Currency movements: Last 52 Weeks CNY > EUR RUB > EUR CNY > GBP USD > EUR HKD > EUR USD > GBP Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 12

13 Arrivals Forecast In partnership with

14 Europe Overview Outlook The current outlook suggests that arrival numbers will experience an increase of 9.4% over the course of June through to August. Once again, Spain and the UK are predicted to continue to be the primary beneficiaries, with the impact of the most recent terror attack in London yet to be factored into the outlook, and early indications suggested a muted response to the Manchester attack. The 10.6% increase in arrival numbers in June is affected by two significant events, with Chinese tourist arrivals affected by the timing of three day national holiday for the Dragon Boat Festival, which fell on 28-30th May in 2017, reflected in the 31% increase in arrival numbers in May, and fell on 9-11th June in 2016, resulting in the 4% decline in arrival numbers expected in June The timing of the end of Ramadan on 24th June in 2017, versus 5th July in 2016, provides an antidote to off-set the decline of Chinese tourists, with GCC nations expected to experience a 57% increase in June. Opportunity Whilst Ramadan is predicted to provide an early summer boost for retailers, arrivals of these tourists are predicted to be broadly flat in the period from June through to August. The BRIC nations are again expected to provide significant gains with growth of 14.4% over the course of the next three months, predominantly driven by gains in Russian and Brazilian tourists, with predicted gains of 34.8% and 20.7%, respectively. The forecast for American and Japanese tourists also suggests double-digit gains with growth of 18.7% and 15.8%, respectively, where these tourists saw growth of 16.3% and 8.6%, respectively, in May Despite a strengthening Euro following the outcome of the French elections, and a weakening dollar amid heightened political concerns and weaker than expected US economic data, sales to American tourists saw growth of 37% in May UK JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % FRANCE JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % GERMANY JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % ITALY JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % SPAIN JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 14

15 3 Month Arrivals Outlook USA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % BRAZIL JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % KUWAIT JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % UAE JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % INDIA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % AUSTRALIA FRANCE S. KOREA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JAPAN JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % TAIWAN JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % THAILAND JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 15

16 3 Month Arrivals Outlook USA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % BRAZIL JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % KUWAIT JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA JUN 16 AUG JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % UAE JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % INDIA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % AUSTRALIA S. KOREA JAPAN TAIWAN UK JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % THAILAND JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 16

17 3 Month Arrivals Outlook USA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % BRAZIL JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % KUWAIT JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % UAE JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % INDIA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % AUSTRALIA ITALY S. KOREA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JAPAN JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % TAIWAN JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % THAILAND JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 17

18 3 Month Arrivals Outlook USA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % BRAZIL JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % KUWAIT JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % UAE JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % INDIA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % AUSTRALIA SPAIN S. KOREA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JAPAN JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % TAIWAN JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % THAILAND JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 18

19 3 Month Arrivals Outlook USA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % BRAZIL JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % KUWAIT JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % UAE JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % INDIA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % AUSTRALIA GERMANY S. KOREA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JAPAN JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % TAIWAN JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % THAILAND JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 19

20 3 Month Arrivals Outlook USA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % BRAZIL JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % KUWAIT JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % S.ARABIA QATAR RUSSIA HONG KONG CHINA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % UAE JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % INDIA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % AUSTRALIA SINGAPORE S. KOREA JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JAPAN JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % TAIWAN JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % THAILAND JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % JUN 16 AUG % JUN % JUL % AUG % JUN 17 AUG % Premier Vision May 2017 Premier Tax Free 20

21 Part of the Fintrax Group Fintrax Group Holdings Headquartered in Galway, Ireland Web: premiertaxfree.com/business If you would like to know more about Tax Free Statistics, please get in touch with your Premier Tax Free representative.

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