The Application of SMC Model to Measurement of Customer Equity Purchasing Value in B2B Market

Transcription

1 Comoay aagm Rach Pag Vol. 8 o. 4 Dcmb h Alicaio of SC odl o aum of Cuom Equiy Puchaig Valu i BB a Ai-Wu Chg Xi a Polychic Uiviy E-ail: Chg955@6.com Xi-Cha u Shaaxi Wid chology Cooaio E-ail: xichamu@yahoo.com Li Su Xi a Polychic Uiviy E-ail: 34848@qq.com Fa Yu Xi a Polychic Uiviy E-ail: cavafa@gmail.com ABSRAC h aicl aalyz h adaabiliy of SC modl bad o h fau of ucha dciio i BB ma. A h bgiig of hi aicl w ioduc h SC modl ad i hyohi ad h modify h modl coidig h chaaciic of BB ma ad h ffc o uchaig dciio fom h vic ovidd by uli. Fially w xami h modifid modl by a ca ad coma h foca ul of h umodifid modl wih ho of h modifid modl. h ul ov ha h modifid modl i mo accua ad mo ciific ha h gal SC modl o dicig h cuom quiy uchaig valu i BB ma. Addiioally i alo ifi h comhiv adaabiliy of SC modl which mu coid h adjum of aam calculaio o h bai of h chaac of uchaig bhavio. Kywod: SC odl BB a Cuom Equiy Poial Puchaig Valu

2 Comoay aagm Rach 33 FOREWORD Cuom quiy i h oal ofi of doig bui wih h loyal cuom i cuom lif cycl i which h mo imoa valu com fom uchaig. hfo quaiaiv aalyi i ud i h ach of cuom quiy maum ad h chola couc h mological modl accodig o h law of h dvlom of cuom uchaig valu uch a Dwy cuom af modl (Dwy 989) CLV focaig mhod of cuom claificaio i iduial ma of Jaco (985) Pao/BD modl (Pfif ad Caaway ) ad SC modl ad o o. h modl dicu h quaiaiv valuaio of cuom quiy fom diff agl layig h foudaio of valuaig h iagibl a of cuom quiy. A h am im i alo omo h ffciv u of hi vial ouc ad h ciific maagm. Amog h modl SC modl aac mo ad mo aio fo dicig cuom fuu uchaig bhavio accodig o hi hioical cod ad h ffciv u of cli daaba ad flcig h gh of cuom acual uchaig valu objcivly. Ecially ud h uo of daa miig chology h gh a mo viibl. Bu i h liau i lac coodig aalyi of h diffc i buyig bhavio i diff idui ha ifluc h accuacy ad alicabiliy of modl. Bad o h abov h aicl gad cuom uchaig bhavio i BB ma a h objc ad udi fuu cuom quiy uchaig valu uig SC modl. W ho i will b mo fully i flcig h chaaciic of BB ma ad ica focaig accuacy by ou imovig h modl. A h bgiig of hi aicl w ioduc h SC modl ad i hyohi ad h modify h modl coidig h chaaciic of BB ma ad h ffc o uchaig dciio fom h vic ovidd by uli. Fially a xaml i giv o how ha h modifid modl i mo uiabl o aalyz cuom uchaig bhavio i BB ma. BRIEF IRODUCIO OF SC ODEL I 987 David C Schmili Doald G oiorichad Colombo u fowad SC modl (987) h fcd by David C Schmili ad Rob A Po i 994. I a mhod of aalyzig cuom fuu buyig bhavio accodig o hi hioical cod calld SC fo ho. I cific co i o couc a gou of modl dcibig adom idividual cuom buyig bhavio by uig h fqucy ad oh ifomaio. Ad h ma a dicio i h ligh of cuom aciviy xcd uchaig fqucy ad h oibiliy of buyig. h

3 Comoay aagm Rach 333 codiio of SC modl a a follow: h adom uchaig oc of aciv cuom yild o Poio diibuio. h lif im of idividual cuom o xoial diibuio. 3h i a hug vaiaio of cuom buyig a dicd by diibuio. 4hogiy xi i cuom aiio a which o diibuio. 5h cuom uchaig a i idd of cuom aiio a. By h hyoh abov SC modl iclud h followig modl: () h aciviy modl of idividual cuom a h im of : P X x P X x f X x d d () hi modl how vaiaio accodig o aam () h obabiliic modl of cuom doig x bui dal i h iod of af h im of : P X x X x = P X x P X x X x () (3) h xcacy modl of cuom uchaig fqucy i h iod of af h im E X x X x P X x E (4) h xcacy modl of cuom ach volum of bui H a om codiio of hi modl: Z ma a cuom ach volum of bui i x i h vaiabl of omal diibuio h avag valu i h vaiac i h hioical avag volum of bui of all cuom W yild o omal diibuio h xcd valu i E h vaiac i 3 h hioical avag volum of bui of idividual cuom ad h uchaig a ad h aiio a a idd of ach oh. If cuom uchaig cod a diff o a h dd coffici ad h x uchaig xcd valu. Wh h cod i h xcd valu of volum of bui agai i i Z Z E E (3) A

4 Comoay aagm Rach 334 Wh h cod i abov h xcd valu of volum of bui agai i: E Z Z Z Z E (4) x x X A X A W Z A X A W x E Ud h abov hyohi h oal volum of bui of a cuom i h fuu iod of i lad o h adig im ad ach adig volum duig h iod h oduc of h wo vaiabl: Z X EZ Z Z Z Ex X E (5) x E Z X ma h xcd valu of h volum of bui i h iod of af h im accodig o h hioical adig ifomaio of X x E Z Z Z Z x ma h xcd valu of h fuu volum of bui dicd by h viou x im hioical adig volum E x X idica h xcd valu of adig im i h iod of af h im. HE ODIFICAIO OF SC ODEL h Aalyi of h Imac o Cuom Puchaig i Iduial a Poducd by Svic Wih h dvlom of cic h imoac of vic i BB ma ca galy ifluc uchaig bhavio. h vic ca b dmoad io wo ac: o i uoiv vic icludig waai fo good uly ad vic of a h aiac ad aiig of u; h oh a fdbac ad comaio icludig lm of comlai ad diu fud ad o o. High qualiy vic ha oiiv ffc o icaig h fficicy ducig h x of mloy aiig ad imovig h qualiy of oduc. Fo h ao cuom i BB ma aach ga imoac o h vic; hy v o h cooaio wih uli wih a aaciv ic wh hy a diaifid wih h vic. I u h vic i alo o of h comiiv gh of comai which hould b oducd. Som comai aac oial cuom ad alo hac h oial uchaig valu of cu cuom a h am im by ovidig uiqu vic. Accodig o h aaly w coclud ha w mu coid h ffc of vic o cuom buyig dciio wh w dic h cuom quiy uchaig

5 Comoay aagm Rach 335 valu i BB ma. Bu viouly w did gad h vic a a igifica lm wh uig h SC modl o aalyz h buyig bhavio i BB ma; a a ul w ca g objciv ad accua ul fom h dicio of cuom quiy uchaig valu which ha a gaiv imac o maig dciio. So i occu o b cay ad igifica o modify SC modl accodig o h chaac of cuom uchaig i BB ma. h Baic Hyohi of odl Paam Accodig o h fau of cuom buyig dciio i iduial ma ad h lad liau w giv comlmay hyoh a follow: 6h uli vic i a y faco of cuom quiy uchaig valu. 7h vic i oiiv colad wih cuom uchaig a. 8Bad o h ul of comaig h xcig vic ( )ad h acual vic ( S ac ual ) h a wo a of vic: wh S a diaifid wih h vic; wh S a i ci a i g S ac ual S a i ci a i g aiciaig S ac ual cuom cuom a aifid wih h vic. Suo h a of cuom aifacio wih h acual vic i i ach adig oc ad h a of diaifacio i. 9O cuom oly aac wih a uli ui imach adig volum oby a adom diibuio ad h xcd valu i. a u odl wihou Coidig Cuom Eogiy Accodig o hyohi () h a of cuom aacio yild o Poio diibuio i uchaig afig oc i a coiuou aov chai. ow w uo ha i iduial mah a of cuom aacio i oly lad o h la vic wh cuom a diaifid wih h vic h x a of aacio i ; wh cuom a aifid wih h vic h x a of aacio i ad amly P! a of cuom aacio Accodig o h hyoh (8) vic hav wo codiio o i h cuom diaifacio wih h vic aoh i h cuom aifacio wih h vic. ow h bgiig im i i a cuom lif cycl accodig o aov chai (Li ) h aiio obabiliy maix i a followig:

6 Comoay aagm Rach 336 P P ij i j ad fo h adom xcaio valu of im af fom a i o a j j i. So hough a i of cuiv ad ma W PW W ca g ha: W () cuom a diaifid wih h uli vic i aacio oc = Bcau cuom aacio o adom Poio diibuio ad idividual cuom uvival im o Exoial diibuio im of aiciaig ucha of cuom (6) Aiciaig ucha of cuom amog (7) ()wh cuom a aifid wih h uli vic i aacio oc imilaly h i = im of aiciaig ucha of cuom (8)

7 Comoay aagm Rach 337 uaiy of aiciaig ucha of cuom amog (9) oal quaiy of aiciaig ucha () By (7) ad (9) ha o ay wh cuom a aifid wih h uli vic i aacio oc hy will buy mo oduc. a u odl by Coidig Cuom Hogiy I viw of h hogiy of cuom ucha a ad waag a w ca a i ha wh i high hould alo b high. I oh wod h i a cai iacio bw ad. Fo h a of covic w fom a hyohi ha if h ma amly ( i coffici idicaig h dg of h hogiy of cuom ucha a). cuom a diaifid wih h uli vic d d h g () Wh () Wh z b c a F z c b a F.. (3)

8 Comoay aagm Rach 338 () wh cuom a aifid wih h uli vic d d h g (4) Wh (5) Wh z b c a F z c b a F.. (6) EPIRICAL AALYSIS A i a lag i maily oducig mallugical iallaio ad miig machi. I i h lad i h iduy which ha a aual uov of abou a billio. hi i do hav may cuom mo of whom a l mill coal mi i o ach iiu. h comay ha a clo laiohi wih cuom ad ca a log colaio which i chaacizd by h claic fau of iduial ma. W build a dicio modl by aig daa of cuom aacio fom July 6 o July 8 a h fihad ifomaio aig h daa of h fi 3 moh a h xim ad h daa of h 4 moh a h. By comaig h dicio daa ad x daa w ify h modifid SC modl. W lcd 556 cuom adomly who iiial ad occud af July 6.All h aml a dividd io aml cuom Ⅰ ad aml cuom Ⅱ h fi i h xim gou ad h cod i h gou. Duig h oc w lcd 8 cuom fom aml Ⅰ adomly. Fily w g cuom aciviy ad cuom aiciaig aacio by uig h gal SC modl h w u h fomula: oial uchaig valu of cuom quiy = cuom aiciaig aacio cuom aciviy

9 Comoay aagm Rach 339 i i foud ha h oial uchaig valu of h 8 cuom i h 4 moh; h calcula h oial uchaig valu of h 8 cuom i h 4 moh by h modifid SC modl. S abl. Cuom umb abl Poial uchaig valu of cuom quiy Pobabiliy of aiciaig aciviy uaiy of aiciaig aacio Poial uchaig valu of cuom quiy odifid quaiy of aiciaig aacio odifid oial uchaig valu of cuom quiy Fially w coma h modifid ad umodifid dicd valu of cuom oial uchaig valu wih h acual valu. I h abl Z i ma cuom acual uchaig valu o July 8 ad Ẑ i i h dicd valu o h am iod. h ul of o aalyi ad comaio a how i abl. Cuom umb Z i abl h o aalyi abl Bfo modify Ẑ i Af modify Bfo modify Af modify %.54% %.63% %.36% %.4% % 3.3% %.3% %.4% %.89% oal %.46%

10 Comoay aagm Rach 34 I ca b fom abl 3 ha umodifid oal o i.88% h maximum dicd o i 4.4%;modifid oal o i.46% h maximum dicd o i 3.3%. hi ov ha h accuacy ad ffciv of dicig uchaig valu of cuom quiy hav b imovd igificaly af modifyig SC modl bad o h fau of buyig dciio of BB ma. COCLUSIOS hough dicuig h ffc of uli vic o cuom uchaig dciio bhavio i BB ma w ovid a modifid SC modl ad u i o dic h uchaig valu of cuom quiy. By ig h modifid modl wih acical daa i ov ha modifid SC modl i mo ciific ad accua ha gal SC modl i m of uchaig valu of cuom quiy i BB ma. h cocluio of hi a alo ov ha SC modl ha a wid ag of alicaio bu aam calculaio ha o b adjud bad o h fau of h objc ucha bhavio. Howv hi udy i oly a abcdaia ach. W imly coid h ffc of vic o cuom ucha dciio i BB ma ad ma o aalyi of ay oh maig vaiabl ha mai o b achd o ma SC modl much mo accua ad daild i dicig uchaig valu of cuom quiy. ACKOWLEDGEES Fud ojc: h aioal aual Scic Fud (7676) REFERECES Dwy F. Rob (989). Cuom Lifim Valuaio o Suo aig Dciio aig. Joual of Dic aig 3(4) 8-5. Jaco B. B. (985). Wiig ad Kig Iduial Cuom. Lxigo A: D. C. Hah ad Comay Li Y. l. (). Sochaic oc. Bijig: ig-hua Uiviy P Pfif P. E. ad Caaway R. L. (). odlig Cuom Rlaiohi a aov Chai. Joual of Iaciv aig 4() Schmili D. C. oio D. G. ad Colombo R. (987). Couig You Cuom: Who A hy ad Wha Will hy Do x? aagm Scic 33() -4. Schmili David C. ad Po Rob A. (994). Cuom ba aalyi: a iduial ucha oc oc alicaio. aig Scic 3() 4-67.