A DYNAMIC MODEL OF UNIVERSITY SELECTION. Ivan Anić, Vladimir Božin, Branko Urošević
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1 A DYAMIC MODEL OF UIVERITY ELECTIO Iva Aić, Vadimir Boži, Brako Urošević
2 Micae ece Job Marke sigaig ece, A. M. 973): Job marke sigaig g Quar. J. Eco., 87 obe rize 00 egaive correaio bewee e cos of educaio ad worker roduciviy Two yes of workers, accordig o roduciviy, ig ad ow
3 Asymmeric iformaio Emoyer does o kow e roduciviy eve of a worker, ad as o ifer i idirecy, wie workers do kow eir roduciviy eve Educaio eve serves as a sigaig message from workers o emoyers
4 Job Marke sigaig is acive area of researc Muie equiibria: Co ad Kres 987) Cycicaiy over ime: Deas ad akearis 003) oise: Aos-Ferrer, Caros ad Pra 008) Geeraizaios: Jovaovic 979), Farber ad Gibbos 996)
5 Te Mode Two yes of uiversiies scoos/rograms) - ard ad easy Two yes of sudes, ig ad ow abiiy ad - same every year) Droou raes Wages se based o as exeriece wi aumi
6 Uiversiy oicies se droou raes > > < <
7 Emoyers se saaries Emoyers se saaries ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) = ) ) ) ) ) ) ) = = ) ) τ, τ = aaogousy for ), ) ad )
8 A ay mome ere are 4 saes : C a rosecive sudes coose arder uiversiy C a rosecive sudes coose easier uiversiy C ig abiiy sudes coose arder, ad ow abiiy easier uiversiy 3 C ig abiiy sudes coose easier, ad ow abiiy arder uiversiy i 4 Q ) = ) ) Oe geeraio is ake as ui of ime
9 Teorem. i) If e sysem a ime is i saes C or C e ) Q is bewee Q) ad Q ii) If e sysem a ime is i sae 3 C e ) Q is bewee Q) ad mi Q iii) If e sysem a ime is i sae 4 C e ) Q is bewee Q) ad max Q ) y 4 ) Q Q ) max Q Q = mi Q = max. =. = Q Q =
10 ude coice C C C 3 C 4 Codiios Q < ) R Q ) > R Q ) < R Q ) > R Q < ) R Q ) > R Q ) > R Q ) < R R = R =
11 ae sequeces for D < D C C C C 3 C C C C 4 C C C4 C4 C C 5 C C C 4 4 C D = ad D =
12 ae sequeces for D > D Dyamics Diagrams C C,4,6 C C,,3,4,5,6 3 C C C C 4 C C C C 4,6 5 C C C3 C3 C3 C C 6 C C C C C C 4, C 3 C 3 C C3 C3 C C3 C3 3 C3 C C 3 C3 C C 7 C 5,5 8 C 5 9 C 5 0 C,4,6 C 3 D D,4 3 C3 C3 D D,4 4 D D C C,4 5 C 3 C 3 D D C C,4 6 C C D D C C 4 7 C C D D 4 8 C C C C D D C C C C C C D D Here D is a sequece C C C3 C3.
13 Teorem 4. Afer sufficie umber of geeraios, e foowig og ru equiibria ca occur: A sudes ero i e more caegig uiversiy A sudes ero i e ess caegig guiversiy Hig roduciviy sudes ero i e more caegig uiversiy wie ow roduciviy sudes ero i e ess caegig uiversiy Hig roduciviy sudes ero i e more caegig uiversiy wie ow roduciviy sudes aerae erome i wo uiversiies idefiiey.
14 Exece ed saaries raio Low Time
15 Robusess aaysis Dumig gives more weig o more rece graduaes τ ) = q τ ) τ = oise sifs sude resod radomy = Pr X ) ), X ) ~ Q)/R, σ ) ), σ Q)/R σ ) ) = Pr X ) ), X ) ~, σ
16 Execed sa aaries raio Low Time
17 ,, , Time Low Execed saaries raio
18 udes eroig Uivers siy Low Time
19 Cocusios Uiversiy oicies se disicio eves Emoyer refers e searaig equiibrium Iceives o icrease disicio eve of e Iceives o icrease disicio eve of e more caegig uiversiy
20 Furer researc Oima uiversiy oicies oicies cage over ime game eory) Time o reac equiibrium More yes of sudes More uiversiies/rograms Aaysis of exeded modes udies a icrease roduciviy Emirica researc
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