The Current Activities of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion Concerning Tonankai/Nankai Earthquakes
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1 The Current Activities of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion Concerning Tonankai/Nankai Earthquakes ISOGAI Keisuke Director of Earthquake Research Division, Research and Development Bureau, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) November 6, 2002
2 Organization of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion
3 Basic Policy Seismic Hazard Map Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map The predicted likelihood of a strong ground motion occurring in a given area within a set period of time. The Earthquake Research Committee is planning to create a "General Seismic Hazard Map covering the whole of Japan" by Image of Seismic Hazard Map
4 Major fault zones and surrounding sea regions in evaluations announced to date (Probabilities of large-scale earthquakes over the next thirty years) Morimoto-Togashi Fault Zone about 0 5 Nara-Basin Fault Zone about 0 5 Reference Immediately prior to the earthquake generated by the active fault in southern Hyogo Pref. (maximum 8%) Itoigawa- Shizuoka Tectonic Line Fault Zone 14 Nankai Trough Tonankai about 50 Nankai about 40 Off Aomori pref. (M8class) 5% (M ) about 90% Off Miyagi pref. 98 Along Japan trench (Tunami earthq.) about 20% (Intraplate earthq.) 4 7% Kannawa Kozu- Matsuda Fault Zone 3.6 Fujikawa-kako Fault Zone
5 Long-term evaluation of Tonankai/Nankai earthquakes Earthquake Evaluated Magunitude Evaluated Occurrence Probability Within Within Within years years years (Upper) Evaluated recurrence interval (Lower) Elapsed time from the latest event Nankai 8.4 At the same time Less than 40% 10% 80% 90.1 years 54.0 years Tonankai % 80 50% years 56.1years
6 Evaluation of strong ground motion of the Tonankai/Nankai earthquakes Source rupture point asperity Nankai Earthquake Probable source region Tonankai Earthquake Probable source region
7 Evaluation of strong ground motion of the Tonankai earthquakes Past Tonankai earthquakes 1854/12/23 (Ansei-Tokai earthquake) Intensities from historical records Probable source region Evaluated Intensities
8 Evaluation of strong ground motion of the Nankai earthquakes Intensities from historical records Evaluated Intensities Probable source region Past Nankai earthquakes 1854/12/24 (Ansei-Nankai earthquake)
9 The enhancement of survey and observation for the possible Tonankai/Nankai earthquakes Details August, 2001 The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion The review of the fundamental earthquake survey and observation plans and the establishment of a focused survey and observation system The system for survey and observation of the earthquakes in the Nankai trough, which is considered as a focused area, should be examined. September, 2001 (The Earthquake Research Committee) Long-term evaluation of earthquakes in the Nankai trough was announced. December, 2001 The Subcommittee for Evaluations of Strong Ground Motion under the Earthquake Research Committee Strong ground motion evaluation methods for projected earthquakes in the Nankai trough was announced. The Subcommittee for Survey and Observation Plans (under the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion) April, 2002 the examination for the plan was launched to be expected to report in March, 2003 The plan for the enhancement of survey and observation of the possible Tonankai/Nankai earthquakes PURPOSE Improvement of the long-term evaluation Improvement of the evaluation of the strong ground motion
10 Government's Proposed Budget for FY2003 related to the enhancement of survey and observation of the possible Tonankai/Nankai earthquakes Ministry of Education,Culture,Sports,Science and Technology 450 million yen Observation research for the improvement in the evaluation of the Tonankai/Nankai earthquakes Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport <Geographical Survey Institute> 196million yen 627 million yen The enhancement of observations of crustal deformation concerning the Tonankai/Nankai earthquakes The research for the characteristics of the crustal deformation concerning Tonankai/Nankai earthquakes <Japan Meteorological Agency> 151million yen The enhancement of the observation system for possible Tonankai/Nankai earthquakes <Japan Coast Guard> 280million yen The enhancement of the disaster risk management of the Tonankai/Nankai earthquakes Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (within subsidy for operation) <The National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology> The establishment of the observation well network for the earthquake prediction research
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