Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 2-15 Natsushima-cho, Yokosuka JAPAN

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1 Dense Ocean floor Network System for Mega Thrust Earthquakes & Tsunamis(DONET) -Towards Understanding Mega Thrust Earthquakes, the Geohazard & Disaster Mitigation- Yoshiyuki KANEDA, Katsuyoshi KAWAGUCHI, Eiichiro ARAKI, Hiroyuki MATSUMOTO, Takeshi NAKAMURA, Shinichiro KAMIYA, Keisuke ARIYOSHI, Takane HORI Earthquake and Tsunami research project for Disaster Prevention Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 2-15 Natsushima-cho, Yokosuka JAPAN Abstract: The Nankai Trough is well known as the mega thrust earthquake generating tsunamis, with the interval of years. To understand and elucidate the recurrences of the mega thrust earthquakes, ocean floor network systems for the real time monitoring of seismogenic zone are quite useful and important. We are developing the ocean floor network system (DONET), funded by Japanese government MEXT project. The data from DONET will be applied to the early warning earthquakes and tsunamis. Furthermore, the precise data of crustal activities from DONET will improve the recurrence cycle simulation model using data assimilations. 1. INTRODUCTION The Nankai Trough is well known as the mega thrust earthquake generating tsunamis, with the interval of years. There are three mega thrust earthquake seismogenic zones in the Nankai trough. Especially, the 1944 /1946 earthquakes in Showa Nankai trough earthquakes and the 1854 Ansei Nankai trough earthquakes, first ruptures were starting from the Tonankai seismogenic zone. However, according to Prof. Okamura of KOCHI University, super mega thrust earthquakes with large tsunamis such as the 1707 Hoei earthquake, the 1361 Shohei earthquake and the 684 Hakuho earthquakes are estimated to be occurring with intervals of years or 700 years by historical tsunami research. These facts are very severe problems for Japan. Based on recent structural researches, observational researches and advanced simulation researches, we recognize that the Tonankai seismogenic is very important area to understand the recurrence system of mega thrust earthquakes around the Nankai trough. Therefore, we have been starting to developing and deploying the dense ocean floor observatory network system around the Tonankai seismogenic zone to monitor crustal activities using broadband seismometer, accelerometer and precise pressure gauges. The probability of next Tonankai earthquake recurrence is estimate as 60-70%. So, to monitor the crustal activities for the early warning and improvement of recurrence cycle simulation of mega thrust earthquakes, the ocean floor network is significant and important. In this paper, we explain the recent and detailed developing of this Copyright 2010 SubOptic Page 1 of 6

2 ocean floor network system (DONET). Furthermore, the new project including observation simulation and mitigation researches of mega thrust earthquakes around the Nankai trough is starting as 5 years project ( ). Especially, the Ocean floor network data is very important and powerful to progress the new project. There are imaged key structures such as subducting seamount in the Nankai seismogenic zone, cyclic ridge subducting system in the Tokai seismogenic zone and splay faults and the irregular structure around the Tonankai seismogenic zone (Figure2). Moreover, results of mega thrust The Nankai trough is well known as mega thrust earthquake seismogenic zone. There are 3mega thrust rupture zones such as the Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai seismogenic zone (Figure1). In these rupture area, mega thrust earthquakes over M8 are occurring with a interval of years (Table1). earthquake recurrence cycle simulation show that the first ruptures are occurring around the Tonankai earthquake rupture zone in each recurrence cycle. In 1854, 1944/46, actually, first ruptures were starting from the Tonankai earthquake rupture zone ahead of the Nankai earthquake rupture zone with intervals of 32 hours in the 1854 Ansei earthquake and 2years in the Showa earthquakes. The result of recurrence cycle simulation indicates the difference patterns and intervals of mega-thrust earthquake recurrences in each cycle (Figure3). These results of simulation are consisted In seismogenic zone researches such as structural researches using seismic refractions and reflections, we have succeeded to image the key structures to understand recurrences of mega thrust earthquakes around the Nankai trough. with the past two earthquakes in 1854, Copyright 2010 SubOptic Page 2 of 6

3 1944/46 around the Nankai trough. The new research project for the evaluation of seismic linkage around the Nankai trough mega thrust earthquakes is starting as MEXT project which is as a kind of Japanese government funded project. Around the Nankai trough, especially, off Kii peninsula located around the Tonankai seismogenic zone, we are deploying the advanced ocean floor network system (DONET) and Chikyu drilling as IODP (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program) is carrying out. Then, the long term observatory system using the borehole by Chikyu drilling will be connected to DONET system. Finally, we will develop 3 dimensional real time monitoring system(figure4). 1. THE DENSE OCEAN FLOOR NETWORK for EARTHQUAKES and TSUNAMIS (DONET) The imaged irregular structure such as a key structure at the segment boundary between the Tonankai and Nankai earthquake rupture zone seems to be the controller of the Nankai Trough mega thrust seismogenic zone system (Figure2). And in each simulation cycles, the first ruptures are starting from the Tonankai earthquake rupture zone ahead of the Nankai earthquake rupture zone (Figure5). These results are consistent with the past two earthquakes in 1854, 1944/1946. (Table2) Therefore, for real time monitoring of the mega thrust seismogenic zone, DONET will be deployed around the Tonankai seismogenic zone to observe broad band phenomena (Figure6). According to previous researches, the Tonankai seismogenic zone is important to understand the system of Nankai trough mega thrust earthquake occurrences. Therefore, we have developed and been deploying the dense ocean floor observatory network system equipped with multi kinds of sensors such as seismometers, pressure gauges etc. around the Tonankai seismogenic zone (Figure7). Using DONET system, we can detect Copyright 2010 SubOptic Page 3 of 6

4 broad band phenomena such as strong motions, low frequency tremors and very low frequency earthquakes. Furthermore, precise multi pressure gauges will be most useful sensor to not only detect tsunamis This advanced dense ocean floor observatory network system has useful functions and purposes as follows, 1) Redundancy, Extension and advanced maintenance system using the looped cable system, junction boxes and the ROV/AUV, etc. (Figure8). 2) Multi kinds of sensors to observe broad band range phenomena such as long period tremors, low frequency earthquakes and strong motion of mega thrust earthquakes over M8.(Figure9) but also monitor ocean floor deformations with long term observations. These ocean floor deformation data will be applied to the data assimilation to improve recurrence cycle simulation model in the Nankai trough mega thrust earthquakes. DONET system will be the one of most advanced scientific tools to understand the mega thrust earthquakes around the Nankai trough. 3) Speedy evaluation and notification for earthquakes and tsunamis (Figure10). This function is most important for disaster reduction /mitigation. JMA is starting the early warning system, therefore, the ocean floor network data will Copyright 2010 SubOptic Page 4 of 6

5 contribute to this early warning system for disaster mitigation. Especially, for the tsunami early warning, DONET system is absolutely necessary and important. 4) Provide observed data such as ocean floor deformation derived from pressure gauges to improve the simulation and modeling researches about the mega thrust earthquakes These ocean floor deformation data are quit necessary for the data assimilation to improve simulation models (Figure11). DONET data will be applied to this new research project. 2. FUTURE PLAN We are developing DONET 2 with a high voltage power system (Figure13). We will deploy DONET2 around the Nankai seismogenic zone (Figure14). We have to apply the data from network to 4) Understanding of the interaction between the crust and upper mantle around subduction zone. 5) DONET data such as pressure gauges will be applied to current researches 6) New research project for the estimate of seismic linkage around the Nankai trough mega thrust earthquakes is starting from FY 2008 as 5 years project (Figure12). This project is entrusted by MEXT project which is as a kind of Japanese government funded project. understand the detailed crustal activities to improve simulation model, and to mitigate disaster damages. In the second step, we would like to develop and deploy the advanced ocean floor network as a regional system and integrate ocean and land observatory network data using advanced ocean floor observatory technologies. In the next step, we would like to collaborate with international network systems such as NEPTUNE(Canada/US), ESONET(Europe), MACHO(Taiwan) etc. to progress geosciences and contribute the Copyright 2010 SubOptic Page 5 of 6

6 early warning system for huge earthquakes and tsunamis (Figure15). In international collaborations, we will develop ocean floor network technologies and exchange data of geosciences to [5] T. Narumi, S. Kodaira, Y. Tatsumi, M.Yamashita, T. Sato, Y. Kaiho, S. Miura, T. No, K. Takizawa, Y. Kaneda, Structural variations of arc crusts and rifed margins in the southern Izu-Ogasawara arc-backarc system, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst, vol. 10, Q09X08, doi: /2008gc [6] H. Matsumoto, M. Ohori, Y. Kaneda, Study on Use of Pressure Gauges in Near- Field for Tsunami Prediction, Journal of Coastal Engineering, JSCE, vol.56, p understand the global dynamics such as the global changes, environmental changes and natural disaster hazards and mitigations. Finally, we would like to enhance to the importance of practical database to improve structures and simulation using the data assimilation based on the ocean floor network data.. 4. REFERENCES [1] Y. Kaneda, M. Ohori, T. Nakamura, Newly Proposed Disaster Mitigation and Recovery for the Next Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquakes, Journal of Disaster Research, vol.14 no.2,p , 2009 [2] Y. Kaneda, S. Kodaira, Structural Research on the Nankai Trough Using Reflections and Refractions, Journal of Disaster Research, vol4 no.2, p67-71, [3] Y. Kaneda, K. Hirahara, T. Furumura, New Research Project for Evaluating Seismic Linkage Around the Nankai Trough, Journal of Disaster Research, vol4 no.2, p61-66, 2009 [4] K.Ariyoshi,T.Hori, Jean-Pal Ampuero, Y.Kaneda,T.Matsuzawa,R.Hino,A. Hasegawa, Influence of interaction between small asperities on various types of slow earthquakes in a 3-D simulation for a subduction plate boundary, Gondwana Research, vol.16 no.3-4, p [7] Kodaira, S., T. Iidaka, A. Kato, J.-O. Park, T. Iwasaki and Y. Kaneda, High pore fluid pressure may cause silent slip in the Nankai Trough, Science, 304, , 2004 [8] Park, Jin-Oh, Tetsuro Tsuru, Shuichi Kodaira, P Phil R. Cummins, and Yoshiyuki Kaneda, Splay fault branching along the Nankai subduction zone, Science,Vol. 297, , [9] S.Kodaira, N.Takahashi, A.Nakanishi, S. Miura, Y.Kaneda, Subducted Seamount Imaged in the Rupture Zone of the 1946 Nankaido Earthquake, Science, ,2000 [10] Hori, T., Mechanisms of separation of rupture area and variation in time interval and size of great earthquakes along the Nankai Trough, southwest Japan, J. Earth Simulator, 5, 8-19, [11] Hori, T., N. Kato, K. Hirahara, T. Baba and Y. K Kaneda, A numerical simulation of earthquake cycles along the Nankai trough, southwest Japan: Lateral variation in frictional property due to the slab geometry controls the nucleation position, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 228, , Copyright 2010 SubOptic Page 6 of 6

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