U.S. Shale Gas in 2030
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- Deirdre Robbins
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1 Oilfield Breakfast Forum October, 2014 U.S. Shale Gas in 2030 Scott W. Tinker Bureau of Economic Geology The University of Texas at Austin, Austin
2 BCF/Day Global Natural Gas Production Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific 115 Tcfy Source: BP Statistical Review 2012
3 Produced Conventional Coal Bed Methane Arctic Deep Water Global Natural Gas Resources v. Cost Production cost (2008 $/Mbtu) Tight ~5,600 Shale Tcf Sour 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 21,000 24,000 27,000 30,000 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009) Global Consumption 115 Tcfy Resources (TcF) LNG QAe980
4 Marketed Production (Tcf) U.S. Natural Gas Production and Reserves Annual U.S. Production End-of-Year U.S. Proved Reserves Proved Reserves (Tcf) 0 0 Data: BP World Energy 2012
5 U.S. Natural Gas Production (TcF) TcF TcF 9 TcF Shale gas Coalbed methane Tight gas Non-associated offshore Alaska Associated with oil Non-associated onshore
6 Unconventional Resource Plays Niobrara Fm Cody Bakken Utica Mowry HilliardBaxterMancos-Niobrara Heath Fm Gammon Niobrara- Mowry Niobrara Fm Antrim Antrim Utica- Collingwood Antrim Utica Marcellus Manning Canyon Mancos Kreyenhagen Hermosa Monterey- T emblor Gothic-Hovenweep Lewis Monterey Pierre- Niobrara W oodford New Albany Excello-Mulky Fayetteville Chattanooga Bend A valon-bone Spring W olfberry Cline W olfcamp (Delaware) Barnett- W oodford Barnett W olfcamp (Midland) Chattanooga W oodford-caney Conasauga Floyd-Neal Floyd-Chattanooga Haynesville T uscaloosa Pearsall Eagle Ford Cenozoic Miocene Mesozoic Cretaceous Paleozoic Permian Mississippian-Devonian T ight sands Miocene-Oligocene Jurassic Pennsylvanian Devonian Basins Eocene T rassic Mississippian-Penn Ordovician Mississippian Cambrian Modified from: EIA and National Geographic QAei2915
7 Unconventional Resource Plays Bakken Marcellus Fayetteville Permian Basin Barnett Haynesville Eagle Ford Cenozoic Miocene Mesozoic Cretaceous Paleozoic Permian Mississippian-Devonian T ight sands Miocene-Oligocene Jurassic Pennsylvanian Devonian Basins Eocene T rassic Mississippian-Penn Ordovician Mississippian Cambrian Modified from: EIA and National Geographic
8 Bureau of Economic Geology U.S. Shale Gas Integrated Study What is the total resource base in place? What portion is technically recoverable? What potion is economically recoverable? What is the long-term production outlook? BEG Shale Reserves and Production Project
9 Relative Frequency Barnett Monte Carlo Production Distribution Tcf OGIP 444 TcF 56 Tcf Cumulative Production (Tcf) Browning, J. et al SPE Econ & Mgmt
10 Relative Frequency Fayetteville Monte Carlo Production Distribution 0.05 OGIP 80 TcF Tcf 23 Tcf Cumulative Production (Tcf) BEG Shale Reserves and Production Project
11 Relative Frequency Haynesville Monte Carlo Production Distribution Tcf OGIP 489 TcF 62 Tcf Cumulative Production (Tcf) BEG Shale Reserves and Production Project
12 Forecast vs. Actual Model: Rice University, Medlock, 2012 EIA
13 Subsurface Nanosensing
14 1000s Bbl Day Global Oil Production Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific BBY Source: BP Statistical Review 2012
15 Production cost (2008 $) Long-Term Oil Supply Resources and Cost EOR Arctic Global Consumption 31 Bby Deepwater and ultra-deepwater CO 2 EOR Other conventional oil Heavy oil & bitumen Oil shales ~1,300 Shale oil Bbo Gas to liquids Coal to liquids 20 Produced MENA ,000 Resources (billion barrels) Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2009)
16 Advanced Energy Consortium Founded in 2008, the AEC membership now comprises 8 of the largest international oil and gas production and service companies. The Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG) at The University of Texas at Austin serves as the managing organization for the AEC and maintains offices in Austin and Houston. Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium
17 AEC Research Portfolio 1) MOBILITY 2) CONTRAST AGENTS 3) NANOMATERIAL SENSORS 4) MICRO-FABRICATED SENSORS Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium
18 Research to Application Pipeline AEC Research Thrust Engine AEC Filtering and Integration of Ideas Member Driven Use Cases Nano Concepts Hydrofrac Research Thrusts Building Blocks Application Ideas EOR Waterflood Pre Competitive Prototypes Experiments and Demos Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium
19 Use Cases = Field Applications Source: BEG Advanced Energy Consortium
20 Summary Shale Gas Will be a contributor to global energy Above ground challenges are real Alternatives are not perfect Won t last forever Subsurface Nanosensors Are getting close to reality Will improve reservoir characterization Should improve recovery
21 Thanks!
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