PREPARED FOR: East Texas Gas Producers Association By Spears & Associates, Inc. August 2012 DRILLING IN 2012: THE PURSUIT OF OIL, THE NEGLECT OF GAS
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1 PREPARED FOR: East Texas Gas Producers Association By Spears & Associates, Inc. August 2012 DRILLING IN 2012: THE PURSUIT OF OIL, THE NEGLECT OF GAS
2 This was in today s USA Today. Intentional?
3 Spears works in the oilfield Consulting Oilfield Market Research 550 clients Founded in 1965 Private Equity Varel International UniversalPegasus International Federal Allied Wireline W-Technologies Joshi Technologies International
4 How oil/gas plays advanced Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
5 How oil/gas plays advanced Barnett Shale Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
6 How oil/gas plays advanced Barnett Shale Fayetteville Shale Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
7 How oil/gas plays advanced Barnett Shale Fayetteville Shale Woodford Shale Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
8 How oil/gas plays advanced Barnett Shale Fayetteville Shale Woodford Shale Haynesville Shale Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
9 How oil/gas plays advanced Barnett Shale Fayetteville Shale Woodford Shale Haynesville Shale Marcellus Shale Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
10 How oil/gas plays advanced Barnett Shale Fayetteville Shale Woodford Shale Haynesville Shale Marcellus Shale Bakken Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
11 How oil/gas plays advanced Barnett Shale Fayetteville Shale Woodford Shale Haynesville Shale Marcellus Shale Bakken Permian Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
12 How oil/gas plays advanced Barnett Shale Fayetteville Shale Woodford Shale Haynesville Shale Marcellus Shale Bakken Permian Eagle Ford Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
13 How oil/gas plays advanced Barnett Shale Fayetteville Shale Woodford Shale Haynesville Shale Marcellus Shale Bakken Permian Eagle Ford Granite Wash Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
14 How oil/gas plays advanced Barnett Shale Fayetteville Shale Woodford Shale Haynesville Shale Marcellus Shale Bakken Permian Eagle Ford Granite Wash Miss Lime Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
15 How oil/gas plays advanced Barnett Shale Fayetteville Shale Woodford Shale Haynesville Shale Marcellus Shale Bakken Permian Eagle Ford Granite Wash Miss Lime Niobrara Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
16 How oil/gas plays advanced Barnett Shale Fayetteville Shale Woodford Shale Haynesville Shale Marcellus Shale Bakken Permian Eagle Ford Granite Wash Miss Lime Niobrara Woodbine Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
17 Zombie oilfields come alive with time and technology Barnett Shale Fayetteville Shale Woodford Shale Haynesville Shale Marcellus Shale Bakken Permian Eagle Ford Granite Wash Miss Lime Niobrara Woodbine Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
18 Why was the Haynesville alive then and dead now? Haynesville Shale Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
19 2013 Oilfield Market Forecast -35% Unit Mfr 5-10% Coiled Tubing DH Tools Compression Land Drilling Rental Frac/Cement OCTG Trees Rig Eqpt Wireline Geophysical Well Servicing Flow Back 10-15% Solids Control Directional Artificial Lift Completion Drill Bits Mud Logging Subsea Drilling Fluids Off. Drilling LWD
20 Millions We analyze company sales by product line: $8,000 $7,000 Halliburton Quarterly Product Line Sales $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12
21 Millions So that we can see markets & technology trends $9,000 $8,000 Quarterly Pressure Pumping Sales (BHI, SLB, HAL, WFT) $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12
22 West Texas Intermediate Oil Price Natural Gas Spot Price Price Assumptions $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 Oil Price Gas Price $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Oil Price $99.98 $61.77 $79.28 $94.73 $92.82 $95.00 Gas Price $8.36 $3.79 $4.32 $3.93 $2.46 $3.30 $0
23 Drilling Rigs We forecast that US drilling will set a record in 12 & Source: Drilling & Production Outlook
24 Drilling Rigs And that Canadian drilling is flat for a few years Source: Drilling & Production Outlook
25 Drilling Rigs And that International drilling steadily climbs both land & offshore Source: Drilling & Production Outlook
26 US horizontal wells are growing Oil Wells Gas Wells
27 Horizontal Oil Horizontal Gas 14,000 14,000 12,000 12,000 10,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,
28 Q = 1.00 Pricing in the US Cost Index Stimulation Land Drilling Technical Services 0.00 Q1 12 Q1 11 Q1 10 Q1 09 Q1 08
29 Cost to drill in US is down
30 Millions Pressure pumping $51b in 2013 $60,000 $50,000 Others 33% HAL 29% $40,000 $30,000 BHI 16% SLB 22% $20,000 $10,000 $ Source: Spears & Associates research
31 Pressure Pumping Market 24% 6% Cementing Sand Control Frac 70%
32 Global Frac Market $875, 3% $1,875, 6% $450, 1% $800, 2% $300, 1% $28,000, 87% North America South America Europe Africa Middle East Southeast Asia 2012 Regional Markets
33 Billions North American Frac Market $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 Other Gulf of Mexico South Texas East Texas/NoLa MidContinent Permian Eastern US Rockies Canada $
34 Billions North American Frac Market $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12
35 Regional Frac Markets CANADA: $4B ( 11) / $4B ( 12) ROCKIES: $3B ( 11) / $3B ( 12) OTHER: $2B ( 11) / $2.5B ( 12) EASTERN: $2B ( 11) / $1.5B ( 12) MIDCONTINENT: $5B ( 11) / $6B ( 12) PERMIAN: $3.5B ( 11) / $4.5B ( 12) Etx/NoLa: $3.5B ( 11) / $2B ( 12) SOUTH TEXAS: $3.5B ( 11) / $4.5B ( 12) Source: Spears & Associates estimates. GULF: $0.5B ( 11) / $1B ( 12)
36 Status of 17.9 million HHP Working Waiting Repairing Total
37 Millions HHP Additions in US+Canada Q1 05 Q3 05 Q1 06 Q3 06 Q1 07 Q3 07 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 11 Q3 11 Q1 12 Q3 12
38 Millions Pump Truck Manufacturing $6,000 $5,000 23% NOV $4,000 45% 15% Weir SSS Serva $3,000 8% 9% Others $2,000 $1,000 $
39 Frac Fleet HHP: Majors vs Indy 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 Majors Indies 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 2,000, Source: Spears & Associates research
40 Millions 2013 Outlook: Land Drilling $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $ Source: Spears & Associates research
41 Millions 2013 Outlook: Well Servicing $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $ Source: Spears & Associates research
42 Millions 2013 Outlook: Compression $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $ Source: Spears & Associates research
43 Millions 2013 Outlook: Chemicals $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $ Source: Spears & Associates research
44 Zombie oilfields come alive with time and technology Barnett Shale Fayetteville Shale Woodford Shale Haynesville Shale Marcellus Shale Bakken Permian Eagle Ford Granite Wash Miss Lime Niobrara Woodbine Source: Spears & Associates estimates.
45 Spears & Associates, Inc. Spears & Associates is an oilfield equipment and service market consulting company. We were founded in 1965 and currently have ~500 clients around the world. About 200 are oilfield service companies and steel mills who have been clients for years each. The rest are E&P companies and financial firms. Spears has several subscription-based services: Drilling and Production Outlook. Est. in 1982, this is a 50-country forecast of drilling activity. Most clients are service companies. Oilfield Market Report. Est. in 1996, this tracks product line sales for ~250 oilfield service companies. Most clients are financial. PipeLogix. Established in 1985, this tracks the price and demand for OCTG and line pipe. Clients are E&P and financial. Oilfield Market Intelligence. Est Includes all Spears market research. Clients are financial and international E&P. Drilling & Completion Cost Service. Est Tracks by US basin costs to drill and complete wells. Clients are E&P and financial. Spears also supports oilfield merger/acquisition transactions: Spears provides market-focused due diligence on oilfield M&A transactions annually. Clients are generally private equity firms. Lastly, Spears conducts bespoke market research: We have completed ~2,000 oilfield market research engagements around the world since our founding. Spears & Associates has three partners, all based in Tulsa: John Spears, president. Responsible for the Drilling & Production Outlook and the Drilling & Completion Cost Service. Richard Spears, vice president. Responsible for the Oilfield Market Report and the Oilfield Market Intelligence series. Kurt Minnich, publisher. Responsible for our PipeLogix OCTG and line pipe division. Spears partners do not invest in public oilfield securities. Partners will occasionally invest in private oilfield service companies that may compete with the firm s clients. In that event, Spears & Associates will not provide consulting services during the period of the investment. Additionally, Richard Spears is on the board of directors of five oilfield service companies. The list of our investments and the list of boards we sit on is available upon request.
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