Allegheny County. A Challenged Natural Gas Super-giant
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1 Allegheny County A Challenged Natural Gas Super-giant Presented to AAPL MLBC 2/09/2017 Gregory Wrightstone Wrightstone Energy Consulting gwrightstone@gwrightstone.com Wrightstoneenergy.com
2 Allegheny County December O & G Investor
3 Allegheny County Marcellus wells (permitted & drilled) Why is that big hole in the middle of all the wells?
4 Allegheny County Marcellus wells (permitted & drilled) Allegheny County- Home to the 2 nd largest population in Pennsylvania
5 Allegheny County Marcellus wells (permitted & drilled) Allegheny County review Resources/Size Burket/Geneseo Marcellus Utica Challenges to Development Regulatory Offsets Homes/Businesses Streams Topography Where can we drill?
6 Allegheny County Allegheny County, Pennsylvania Home to THE largest natural gas reserves in the world Home to 2 nd largest population in the state Can the two coexist and what is the future of gas development in the county?
7 Allegheny County Some background on the county 2 nd most populous county in Pennsylvania (behind Philadelphia) Population of 1,231,225 (2014)
8 Allegheny County Allegheny County is home to 127 municipalities including: Cities Boroughs Townships Cities Townships Boroughs or Misc
9 Allegheny County Reservoirs & the size of the prize
10 Allegheny County The Size of the Prize Giant: >3 TCF Super-Giant: >30 TCF Mega-Giant: >300 TCF Appalachian Mega-Giant likely has >2,000 TCF (recoverable reserves) making it easily the largest natural gas field in the world. AAPG Memoir 97 (2012) The Appalachian Basin Gas Play: Its History of Development, Geologic Controls on Production, and Future Potential as a World-class Reservoir Zagorski, Wrightstone & Bowman
11 Allegheny County The Size of the Prize Marcellus & Burket (Upper Devonian) Gas-in-Place nearly equals the sum of the remaining 14 largest gas fields in the world (does not include the Utica Shale GIP) Size (Km) In-Place Reserves (TCF) Rank Field Name Country Marcellus/Burket 1 (Upper Dev) United States 148,000 3,698 2 South Pars/North Iran & Qatar 35,000 1,800 3 Urengoy Russia 6, Yamburg Russia 3, Hassi R' Mel Algeria 3, Shtokman Russia 3, Galynysh Turkmenistan 2, Zapolyarnoye Russia 2, Hugoton United States 2, Gronigen Netherlands 2, Bovanenko Russia 2, Mevezhye Russia 1, North Pars Iran 1, Dauletabad-Donmez Turkmenistan 1, Karachaganak Kazakhstan 1, Total GIP - All Fields 7,608 Total GIP - Marcellus & Upper 3,698 Total GIP - Conventional Systems Only 3,910 Modified from Zagorski et al 2016, unpublished AAPG volume Giant Fields of the Decade 2000 to 2010 Due to be released 12/2016
12 Allegheny County - Resources Shale Plays Three resource shale reservoirs in Allegheny County Burket/Geneseo - Depth: 5,300 - >7,000 Marcellus - Depth: 5,500 - >7,000 Utica - Depth: 10,000 - >14,000??
13 Allegheny County - Marcellus Shale Southwest Core Area Marcellus wells (permitted & drilled)
14 Allegheny County - Marcellus Shale Drilling Depth Marcellus wells (permitted & drilled)
15 Allegheny County - Marcellus Shale Hydrocarbon Zonation Marcellus wells (permitted & drilled)
16 Allegheny County - Marcellus Shale Geology Wang siliceous organic facies isopach
17 Allegheny County - Marcellus Shale Gas-in-Place *GIP after Range Sun Trust Zagorski Gas in place* BCFe/square mile Ranges from 90 to >150 BCFe Average of 130 BCFe
18 Allegheny County - Marcellus Shale Recoverable Reserves Recoverable reserves assigned using BCFe/1,000 of lateral basis Sources: Proprietary EURs Corporate Reporting *GIP after Range Sun Trust Zagorski Company Avg EUR/1,000 Range 2.62 (max >3.6) Consol 1.95 EQT 2.1 Rice 2.16 Calculations: 750 spacing = acres/1,000 Average EUR/1,000 = 2.1 BCF Average EUR/acre = 122 MMCF Total Marcellus recoverable reserves for Allegheny County: 58.2 TCFe
19 Allegheny County - Marcellus Shale Recoverable Percentage Fun with numbers: Range Southwest Core: GIP: ~130 BCF/section = 203 MMCF/acre *GIP after Range Sun Trust Zagorski EUR: 2.6 BCF/1,000 = 152 MMCF/acre (Range spacing is 1,000 ) This implies a 56% recovery factor
20 Allegheny County Burket/Geneseo Shale Burket/Geneseo GRFT Mapping
21 Allegheny County Burket/Geneseo Shale High daily production rates from wells on-trend with Allegheny County. Peak Daily Production into line
22 Burket / Marcellus Fracture Interaction/Enhancement?? Type log SW Play Area Data indicate: Most Burket wells in SW Core area drilled as stacked lateral between deeper Marcellus wells Staggered pattern between Marcellus wells at half spacing Likely done as zipper fracs with Marcellus wells from same pad Key Burket well Consol NV39F Consol NV39 Pad Washington County, PA Burket well Rice Energy Mojo Pad
23 Burket / Marcellus Fracture Interaction/Enhancement??
24 Burket / Marcellus Fracture Interaction/Enhancement??
25 Allegheny County Burket/Geneseo Shale Recoverable reserves assigned using BCFe/1,000 of lateral basis Sources: Proprietary EURs Corporate Reporting Company Avg EUR/1,000 Consol 1.5 Calculations: 750 spacing = acres/1,000 Average EUR/1,000 = 1.5 BCF Average EUR/acre = 87 MMCF Total Burket/Geneseo recoverable reserves for Allegheny County: 42 TCFe
26 Allegheny County Utica Shale TOC is key production metric Point Pleasant Average TOC* Allegheny County is situated in the heart of the best reservoir based on TOC *McClain MS Thesis 2013 WVU
27 Allegheny County Utica Shale No wells drilled yet in Allegheny County Outstanding flow rates surrounding Allegheny County Company Avg EUR/1,000 Consol 2.8 EQT (Scotts Run) Rice 2.33 Calculations: 1,000 spacing = acres/1,000 Average EUR/1,000 = 2.5 BCF Average EUR/acre = MMCF 59 MMCF 43 MMCF 61.4 MMCF Gaut 4IH Total Utica recoverable reserves for Allegheny County: 51.9 TCF 72.9 MMCF 61.9 MMCF
28 Allegheny County Burket/Geneseo Shale Total technically recoverable reserves (TCFe) Gas-in=place All 3 shales* Burket/Geneseo 41.5 Marcellus 58.1 Utica 51.9 Total Allegheny County TCFe *Range Sun Trust Zagorski
29 Allegheny County The Size of the Prize Allegheny County alone 2a Allegheny County United States 157 Would rank above all but 2 of the world s largest conventional gas fields for recoverable reserves AAPG Memoir 97 (2012) The Appalachian Basin Gas Play: Its History of Development, Geologic Controls on Production, and Future Potential as a World-class Reservoir Zagorski, Wrightstone & Bowman
30 Allegheny County Drilling Access Issues
31 Allegheny County Challenges to Development Regulatory restrictions Set backs from habitable buildings or businesses Set backs from streams Topography Legal Force pooling Marcellus/Burket No force pooling in Pennsylvania for Marcellus/Burket Multiple small tracts required to be under lease Areas with old drilling leading splintered ownership Utica Force pooling is available in Pennsylvania for Utica Pipeline availability Splintered O&G rights Community & environmental activism opposition
32 Allegheny County Challenges to Development Set backs. The waters have been muddied Act 13 passed in 2012 Established Impact Fee 500 set backs from homes/businesses 300 set backs from streams Anti-drilling environmental activists sued to overturn the law State Supreme Court in December 2013 ruled portions of the Act 13 restricting local zoning was unconstitutional including: Cannot preempt local zoning rules Must allow municipalities to restrict drilling in certain zoning Anti-drilling activists want: Set backs of 2,000 or greater (de facto drilling ban) Drilling limited to areas zoned for industrial use Thanks to Robert Johnson of ADKL for summary
33 Allegheny County Challenges to Development 500 Set backs from all habitable dwellings and business buildings Shape file from county showing all homes and offices
34 Allegheny County Challenges to Development 500 buffer around all buildings ID possible sites for drilling pads using shape file buffer map
35 Allegheny County Challenges to Development GIS layer 2 years out of date Lots of construction in that time
36 Allegheny County Challenges to Development County layer had issues w/ non-homes showing up like cell phone towers
37 Allegheny County Challenges to Development County layer had issues w/ non-homes showing up park pavilions
38 Allegheny County Challenges to Development County layer had issues w/ non-homes showing up park pavillions
39 Allegheny County Challenges to Development County layer had issues w/ non-homes showing up park pavilions
40 Allegheny County Challenges to Development Intermittent waterway 300 setback from a bluelinestream or wetland Blueline stream
41 Allegheny County Challenges to Development Topographic restrictions on construction of pads and roads Estimated maximum 15% slope for construction of a 400 x 400 pad
42 Allegheny County Challenges to Development Digital elevation model used to ID areas w/ >15% slope Many thanks to intern Justin Skaggs for the GIS work on this. Layer: Slope small 23
43 Allegheny County Challenges to Development Drillable areas
44 Allegheny County Challenges to Development Drillable areas Semi-rurual North Fayette Township Fairly accessible with opportunities
45 Allegheny County Challenges to Development SW Allegheny County North Fayette Township Drillable areas Peripheral, semi-rural areas provide moderate to good opportunities Fairly accessible Good # of possible sites
46 Allegheny County Challenges to Development Legal issues: Jefferson Hills Marcellus & Burket/Geneseo: No force pooling Required to lease every royalty owner under each lateral Likely 100 s of agreements needed for each pad South Park Utica: Force pooling in effect Easing likelihood of minor holdouts preventing drilling Legal pad site
47 Allegheny County Challenges to Development Legal sites for vertical wellbore N. Allegheny County McCandless Township Drillable areas Heavily populated areas through the central part of Allegheny County: isolated legal suburban drill pads County parks Golf courses
48 Allegheny County Challenges to Development Drillable areas Heavily populated areas through the central part of Allegheny County:
49 Allegheny County Challenges to Development Drillable areas Heavily populated areas through the central part of Allegheny County: Golf courses Oakmont Country Club Riverview Memorial Cemetery
50 Allegheny County Challenges to Development Oakmont has hosted more combined PGA & USGA championships than any other course in the US
51 Allegheny County Challenges to Development Drillable areas Densely populated core of county 0 2% of area has possible locations Peripheral semi-rural areas have increasing availability for pads 0 2% 2-5% 5-10% >10%
52 Allegheny County Long history of drilling Historic drilling Old drilling dating back to late 1800 s Lots of unlocated shallow vertical wells Nightmare of severed oil & gas rights likely
53 Allegheny County Long history of drilling Pittsburgh s First Natural Gas Boom. Source: Harper s Weekly, Nov. 7, 1885, A Pittsburgh Standpipe, Source: Outlet of Natural Gas Well Near Pittsburgh: Harper s Weekly, Nov. 7, 1885, 731 From Boom & Bust in Pittsburgh Natural Gas History: Development, Policy, & Environmental Effects, Authors J Tarr& K. Clay
54 Allegheny County County owned parks 3,075 acres 629 acres 1,180 acres 500 acres Allegheny County Nine (9) parks Total 12,000 acres 1,096 acres 1,610 acres 2,013 acres 810 acres 1,101 acres
55 Allegheny County County owned parks Deer Lakes Park 1,180 acres Only County park to be leased Range negotiated contract in May 2014 Wells drilled from pad on adjoining private lands
56 Allegheny County Range Resources Upfront payment of $4.7 million Donated $3.0 million to park improvement fund 18% royalty has earned $503,000 since March new benches Cleaned up lake waters Added bathrooms Upgraded pavilions Trail improvements
57 Allegheny County County owned parks Remaining Parks Most of other parks are not likely targets for drilling Old field development No legal sites, too close to homes/businesses
58 Allegheny County Who is drilling and where.
59 Allegheny County Who is drilling? Range Chevron Range Consol Pittsburgh Int. Airport EQT
60 Allegheny County Pittsburgh InternationlAirport drilling CONSOL Pittsburgh International Airport 9,200 acres 6 planned pads At least 45 Marcellus wells planned 2/2013: Agreement signed $45 million up-front payment 1 st production from 6 wells on Pad #2 Per enplaned passenger rate has dropped 12.2%
61 Allegheny County Great potential but significant challenges to develop the resources. Questions?? 0 2% 2-5% 5-10% >10%
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