Managing population decline in Europe
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1 Managing population decline in Europe Maja Ročak Researcher Neimed and CESRT Zuyd University of Applied Sciences Symbios, May 2015
2 Content Population decline: demographic view Causes & responses Policy reactions Population decline and society Civic action Management of population decline
3 Population decline: demographic view Global and European trends Indicators: fertility, ageing and migration Winners & losers
4 Global developments Growth of world population from 6 billion in 2000 to 9 billion in 2050 Population decline in Europe from 727 million in 2000 to 6971 million in 2050 In 2050 in Europe 33% of the population will be 60+ Potential support rate (PSR ) in: 1950: : : 4 1
5 European developments Main trends: ageing and population decline Ageing= success
6 Population change in Europe: decline
7
8 Summary: demographic developments Growth of world population Ageing (and population decline) in Europe EU measures regarding population change
9 Causes & responses Shared causes: Demographic developments Economic restructuring Suburbanization Political developments Natural disasters Different answers: Economic regeneration Housing policy Active citizenship
10 Examples Country Cause Response Japan US Germany Ageing Suburbanisation/ Economical restructuring Political developments/ Economic restructuring Ise Shrine project Shrinking Smart (IBA)Stadtumbau
11 Common trends ICT developments Exchange economy New cooperation's/ connections
12 Policy reactions to population decline Trivialising, Countering, Managing and Utilising Circle?
13 Demographic developments: impact on hardware, mindware and software (Hospers, 2004) hardware software mindware Maja Rocak- Symbios
14 Population decline in the literature Hardware: spatial planning, infrastructure, economy, demography, etc (Wiechamn, Pallagst, Martinez- Fernandez, Hollander, etc.) Sporadic: software (often normative requests for more active citizenship or examples of successful projects) (Oswalt, Hannemann, Reverda, Hospers, Corteze, Leetmaa, etc ) Maja Rocak- Symbios
15 Social dynamics Less people, ageing (E)migration (youngsters leave) Low socio- economic status Influence of population change on social institutions People s climate
16 Population decline leads to new ways of organizing the society: state, market and civil society Civic action and population decline: possibilities and limitations State Pd Civil society market
17 Civic action Definition? Mismatch: expectations policy makers and (capacities of) citizens Goal: transformation or status quo?
18 Possible reactions (in the context of population decline) [and hypothesis why] Increasing civic action (sense of urgency) Civic action No change in civic action (business as usual) Decrease in civic action (social infrastructure weakenedweak reaction)
19 Civic action and population decline: a reflection Democratic value of participation? Resource (realistic?) Value of participation Mechanisms Traditions Maja Rocak- Symbios
20 Implications for planning Change in planning cultures: growth paradigm Planning without plans Role of new actors (Hollander, et al 2011) So far failure Maja Rocak- Symbios
21 Creative with population decline The region of everyday life Distances & liveable without facilities No more narrow- minded politics Re- use of human and social capital
22 Good management of population decline 1. Population decline is about the story behind the numbers 2. Growth principles are not effective in depopulated areas 3. Population decline requires warm approach 4. Population decline requires coherent approach 5. The relevant scale is the region of daily life 6. Economic retirement is no social retirement
23 Conclusions: Population decline leads to new arrangements for the society, more specific for state, market and civil society Need for more analysis in order to understand the civic action processes in the context of population decline It s impossible to fix a problem with the mentality that caused it (Albert Einstein) Maja Rocak- Symbios
24 Thank you for your attention neimed.nl Forthcoming: Rocak, M. Hospers, GJ. Reverda, N. (2015) Civic action and urban shrinkage: exploring the link. Journal of Urban Regeneration and Renewal Maja Rocak- Symbios
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