APPENDIX IV.I.2. Health Risk Assessment

Transcription

1 APPENDIX IV.I.2 Health Risk Assessment

2 HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE PROPOSED CASDEN SEPULVEDA PROJECT (Impacts from the 405 Freeway) Prepared for: CAJA Environmental Services San Vicente Blvd. Suite 200 Los Angeles CA Prepared by: Avenue Stanford Suite 209 Santa Clarita CA January

3 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION... 1 PROJECT OVERVIEW... 1 Project Location... 1 Proposed Project Characteristics... 2 ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING... 3 Air Pollutants and Potential Health Effects... 4 Existing Air Quality... 5 REGULATORY FRAMEWORK... 6 U.S. EPA... 6 State... 7 CARB... 7 Regional... 7 SCAQMD... 7 Local... 8 City of Los Angeles... 8 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS... 8 Air Quality Standards and Significance Thresholds... 8 Methodology Source Identification Emissions Calculations Dispersion Modeling Cancer Risk and Health Calculations Project Impacts Criteria Pollutants Cancer Risk Non-Cancer Health Risk CONCLUSION & MITIGATION MEASURES REFERENCES PREPARERS Page ii

4 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project List of Figures Figure 1 Project Location & HRA Scope... 3 List of Tables Table 1 Summary of Ambient Air Quality in the Proposed Project Vicinity... 6 Table 2 Ambient Air Quality Standards and Attainment Status for the South Coast Air Basin (Los Angeles County Portion)... 9 Table 3 SCAQMD Air Quality Significance Thresholds Table 4 Freeway and Ramp Traffic Volumes Table 5 Criteria Pollutant Impact Summary at Worst-Case Location Table 6 Summary of Carcinogenic Exposure Risk at Worst-Case Location Table 7 Criteria Pollutant Impact Summary at Nearest Sensitive Receptor Table 8 Summary of Carcinogenic Exposure Risk at Nearest Sensitive Receptor Appendices Appendix A Appendix B Appendix C Cancer Risk & Health Calculations Emission Factors and CT-EMFAC Output Files AERMOD Output Files Page iii

5 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project INTRODUCTION Recent air pollution studies have shown an association between respiratory and other non-cancer health effects and proximity to high traffic roadways. Other studies have shown that diesel exhaust and other cancer-causing chemicals emitted from cars and trucks are responsible for much of the overall cancer risk from airborne toxics in California. 1 In response to these studies and in an effort to provide guidance to lead agencies with respect to addressing air pollution and land use compatibility issues the California Air Resources Board (CARB) recommends avoiding siting new sensitive land uses such as residences schools daycare centers playgrounds or medical facilities within 500 feet of a freeway urban roads with traffic volumes exceeding vehicles/day or rural roads with volumes greater than vehicles/ day. The City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning further requires that Environmental Impact Reports include a health risk assessment to address exposure impacts to sensitive receptors within 500 feet of a freeway. Sensitive receptors typically include schools playgrounds and childcare centers longterm health care facilities rehabilitation centers convalescent centers hospitals retirement homes and residences. The Casden Sepulveda Project Site ( Project Site ) is located within 500 feet of the 405 Freeway. Accordingly the following Health Risk Assessment (HRA) has been prepared to examine the degree to which the Project may result in air quality exposure risks to its future residents and employees due to the Project Site s close proximity to the Freeway. This document bases the risk assessment methodology on procedures developed by the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA) California Air Resources Board (CARB) California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) and the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD). 1 For a detailed discussion of the various air pollution studies being referenced see Air Quality And Land Use Handbook: A Community Health Perspective California Air Resources Board

6 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project PROJECT OVERVIEW Project Location The Project site is located within the West Los Angeles Community Plan area of the City of Los Angeles (the City ). The irregular shaped Project site comprises the following addresses: through Pico Boulevard and 2431 and 2441 South Sepulveda Boulevard as well as the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (Metro) - owned land to the south. As shown in Figure 1 the Project site is located just east of and abutting Interstate 405 the northern extent fronts Pico Boulevard the eastern extent fronts Sepulveda Boulevard and the southern extent fronts Exposition Boulevard. Proposed Project Characteristics The Proposed Project would develop the site with a mixed-use commercial and residential development with commercial access along Pico and Sepulveda Boulevards and residential access along Sepulveda and Exposition Boulevards. Part of the Metro railroad right-of-way at the southern portion of the site along Exposition Boulevard between Sepulveda Boulevard and Sawtelle Boulevard is planned for use as a station for Phase II of the Metro s Exposition Light Rail Transit Line. Accordingly the Proposed Project is designed as a transit-oriented development that would fully maximize the potential synergies between neighborhood-serving commercial uses larger retail uses housing and pedestrian bus and light rail transit. The Proposed Project would provide Expo Line passengers with easy access to both existing and planned bus stops on both Pico and Sepulveda Boulevards and pedestrian access to the planned Expo Line station on Exposition Boulevard. Pedestrians would be able to enter the retail component of the Proposed Project from the street as well as from the Expo Line station. The Proposed Project would include a total of approximately square feet of retail commercial floor area and 538 residential units including 538 residential units (of which 59 would be senior-affordable units) including 56 studios 262 one-bedrooms 201 two-bedroom units and 19 three-bedroom units (approximately residential square feet). As illustrated in the Proposed Project s site plans (see Section II Project Description of the Draft EIR) the nearest sensitive land use (dwelling unit) would be placed approximately 300 feet east of the 405 Freeway. Page 2

7 4 Project Site 1 Sources/Freeway Segments North/South (0.60 miles) 2 Ramp: 10 East Fwy to 405 North Fwy (0.40 miles) 3 Ramp: 10 West Fwy to 405 North Fwy (0.34 miles) 4 Ramp: 405 North On-ramp from Olympic/Pico Blvds. (0.12 miles) N 0 1/8 1/4 Scale (miles) Aerial Source: Google Earth Figure 1 Project Location and HRA Scope

8 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING Air Pollutants and Potential Health Effects Certain air pollutants have been recognized to cause notable health problems and consequential damage to the environment either directly or in reaction with other pollutants due to their presence in elevated concentrations in the atmosphere. Such pollutants have been identified and regulated as part of the overall endeavor to prevent further deterioration and facilitate improvement in air quality within the Air Basin. Both federal and state ambient air quality standards have been established for outdoor concentrations of these criteria air pollutants at levels considered safe to protect public health including the health of sensitive populations such as asthmatics children and the elderly with a margin of safety; and to protect public welfare including protection against decreased visibility and damage to animals crops vegetation and buildings. Air pollution studies have also shown an association between respiratory and other non-cancer health effects and proximity to major pollution sources such as freeways and high traffic roadways rail yards ports refineries and gas stations that rises above the risks associated with regional air pollution in urban areas. Many of these studies have reported associations between residential proximity to high traffic roadways and a variety of respiratory symptoms asthma exacerbations and decreases in lung function in children. Other studies have shown that diesel exhaust and other cancer-causing chemicals emitted from cars and trucks are responsible for much of the overall cancer risk from airborne toxics in California. 2 The criteria air pollutants that are most relevant to current air quality planning and regulation in the Basin include ozone (O 3 ) carbon monoxide (CO) nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) respirable particulate matter (PM 10 ) fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and lead (Pb). 3 Toxic air contaminants (TACs) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are also of concern in the Basin. TACs refer to a diverse group of air pollutants that include both organic and inorganic chemical substances that may be emitted from a variety of common sources including gasoline stations motor vehicles dry cleaners industrial operations painting operations and research and teaching facilities. TACs are typically found in low concentrations in ambient air especially in urban areas. TACs are different than criteria pollutants in that ambient air quality standards have not been established for them largely because there are hundreds of air toxics and their effects on health tend to be felt on a local scale rather than on a regional basis. TACs are regulated at the regional state and federal level however because chronic exposure can result in adverse health effects. TACs are known to cause or contribute to cancer or non-cancer health effects such as birth defects genetic damage and other adverse health effects. Effects from TACs may be both chronic (i.e. of long duration) and acute (i.e. severe but of short duration) on human health. Acute health effects are attributable to sudden exposure to high quantities of air toxics. These effects include nausea skin 2 3 California Air Resources Board Air Quality and Land Use Handbook April South Coast Air Quality Management District CEQA Air Quality Handbook Page 4

9 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project irritation respiratory illness and in some cases death. Chronic health effects result from low-dose longterm exposure from routine releases of air toxics. The effect of major concern for this type of exposure is cancer which requires a period of 10 to 30 years after exposure to develop. Diesel exhaust is the predominant TAC in urban air and is estimated to represent about two-thirds of the cancer risk from TACs (based on the statewide average). According to the CARB diesel exhaust is a complex mixture of gases vapors and fine particles. This complexity makes the evaluation of health effects of diesel exhaust a complex scientific issue. Some of the chemicals in diesel exhaust including benzene formaldehyde acrolein butadiene and acetaldehyde have been previously identified as TACs by the ARB and are listed as carcinogens either under the state s Proposition 65 or under the federal Hazardous Air Pollutants programs. Existing Air Quality The SCAQMD divides the Basin into 38 source receptor areas (SRAs) in which 38 monitoring stations operate to monitor the various concentrations of air pollutants in the region. The Project site is located in the West Los Angeles Community Plan area within the City and is located within SRA 2 which covers the Northwest Coastal Los Angeles County. 4 Currently SCAQMD Station No. 091 collects ambient air quality data for SRA 2. This station currently monitors emission levels of O 3 CO and NO 2 but does not monitor the pollutant levels of PM 10 PM 2.5 and SO 2. Table 1 Summary of Ambient Air Quality in the Proposed Project Vicinity identifies the national and state ambient air quality standards for the relevant air pollutants along with the ambient pollutant concentrations that were measured at the SCAQMD Station No. 091 between 2007 and In addition to the pollutants outlined in Table 1 the Project Site vicinity is also subject to elevated TACs due to the proximity of the 405 Freeway and other TAC sources. As disclosed in the Multiple Air Toxics Exposure Study III (MATES III) Model Estimated Carcinogenic Risk the existing carcinogenic risk for the Project area is approximately 1029 incidents per one million. 6 By comparison the carcinogenic risk from air toxics in the entire Basin based on the average concentrations at fixed monitoring sites is about 1200 per million. This risk refers to the expected number of additional cancers in a population of one million individuals that are exposed over a 70-year lifetime. Using the MATES III methodology about 94 percent of the risk is attributed to emissions associated with mobile sources and about 6 percent of the risk is attributed to toxics emitted from stationary sources which include industries and businesses such as dry cleaners and chrome plating operations. 7 4 SCAQMD website: 5 The most current air quality data available pertaining to ambient pollutant concentrations over a three-year period provided by the SCAQMD is from 2007 to SCAQMD website: accessed November MATES III Final Report September Website: Page 5

10 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project Table 1 Summary of Ambient Air Quality in the Proposed Project Vicinity Air Pollutants Monitored Within SRA 2 Northwest Coastal Los Angeles County Area Year O 3 Maximum 1-hour concentration measured ppm 0.11 ppm ppm Number of days exceeding national 0.12 ppm 1-hour standard Number of days exceeding state 0.09 ppm 1-hour standard Maximum 8-hour concentration measured ppm ppm ppm Number of days exceeding national ppm 8-hour standard Number of days exceeding state 0.07 ppm 8-hour standard CO Maximum 1-hour concentration measured 3.0 ppm 3.0 ppm 2.0 ppm Maximum 8-hour concentration measured 2.0 ppm 2.0 ppm 1.5 ppm NO 2 Maximum 1-hour concentration measured 0.08 ppm 0.09 ppm 0.17 ppm Annual average ppm ppm ppm Does measured annual average exceed national ppm annual average standard? No No No Does measured annual average exceed state ppm annual average standard? No No No Notes: SRA 2 does not monitor for PM 10 PM 2.5 SO 2 or lead. ppm = parts by volume per million of air. Source: State of California Air Resources Board Historical Data by Year website: accessed October REGULATORY FRAMEWORK U.S. EPA In addition to the criteria air pollutants for which there are National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) U.S. EPA also regulates air toxics. Most air toxics originate from human-made sources including on-road mobile sources non-road mobile sources (e.g. airplanes) area sources (e.g. dry cleaners) and stationary sources (e.g. factories or refineries). Mobile Source Air Toxics (MSATs) are a subset of the 188 air toxics defined by the Clean Air Act. The MSATs are compounds emitted from highway vehicles and non-road equipment. Some toxic compounds are present in fuel and are emitted to the air when the fuel evaporates or passes through the engine unburned. Other toxics are emitted from the incomplete combustion of fuels or as secondary combustion products. Metal air toxics also result from engine wear or from impurities in oil or gasoline. The U.S. EPA is the lead Federal agency for administering the Clean Air Act and has certain responsibilities regarding the health effects of MSATs. In February 2007 the U.S. EPA finalized a rule to reduce hazardous air pollutants from mobile sources (Control of Hazardous Air Pollutants from Mobile Sources February ). The rule will limit the benzene content of gasoline and reduce toxic emissions from passenger vehicles and gas cans. The U.S. EPA estimates that in 2030 this rule would Page 6

11 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project reduce total emissions of mobile source air toxics by tons and VOC emissions (precursors to ozone and PM 2.5 ) by over 1 million tons. State CARB The Air Resources Board (ARB) a part of the California Environmental Protection Agency (Cal/EPA) is responsible for the coordination and administration of both federal and state air pollution control programs within California. In this capacity the ARB conducts research sets CAAQS compiles emission inventories develops suggested control measures and provides oversight of local programs. The ARB establishes emissions standards for motor vehicles sold in California consumer products (such as hair spray aerosol paints and barbecue lighter fluid) and various types of commercial equipment. The ARB also sets fuel specifications to further reduce vehicular emissions. In its Air Quality and Land Use Handbook CARB states Air pollution studies indicate that living close to high traffic and the associated emissions may lead to adverse health effects beyond those associated with regional air pollution in urban areas. 8 The Air Quality and Land Use Handbook cites several studies linking adverse respiratory health effects (e.g. asthma) to proximity to roadways with heavy traffic densities where the distances between the roadway and the receptors were 300 to 1000 feet. Other studies suggest that such impacts diminish with distance and a substantial benefit occurs if the separation distance is greater than 300 to 500 feet. The Air Quality and Land Use Handbook which is intended to serve as a general reference guide for planning agencies to evaluate and reduce air pollution impacts associated with new projects that go through the land use decision-making process contains general recommendations that may reduce potential health impacts by establishing a buffer zone or setback between sensitive land uses and sources of toxic air contaminants. Specifically with respect to land uses located near freeways and other heavily traveled roadways CARB recommends that lead agencies avoid citing new sensitive land uses within 500 feet of a freeway urban roads with vehicles per day or rural roads with vehicles per day. Regional SCAQMD The SCAQMD is the agency principally responsible for comprehensive air pollution control in the Basin. To that end the SCAQMD works directly with the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) county transportation commissions and local governments and cooperates actively with all state and federal government agencies. The SCAQMD develops rules and regulations establishes permitting requirements inspects emissions sources and provides regulatory enforcement through such measures as educational programs or fines when necessary. 8 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Air Quality and Land Use Handbook: A Community Health Perspective (2005) Page 7

12 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project Although the SCAQMD is responsible for regional air quality planning efforts SCAQMD does not have the authority to directly regulate the air quality issues associated with plans and new development projects within the Basin. Instead the SCAQMD has prepared the CEQA Air Quality Handbook to assist Lead Agencies as well as consultants project proponents and other interested parties in evaluating potential air quality impacts of projects and plans proposed in the Basin. In August 2002 the SCAQMD s Mobile Source Committee approved the Health Risk Assessment Guidance for Analyzing Cancer Risks from Mobile Source Diesel Emissions. This document provides guidance for analyzing cancer risks from diesel particulate matter from mobile sources at facilities such as truck stops and warehouse distribution centers. Subsequently SCAQMD staff revised the aforementioned document to expand the analysis to provide technical guidance for analyzing cancer risks from potential diesel particulate emissions impacts from truck idling and movement (such as but not limited to truck stops warehouse and distribution centers or transit centers) ship hotelling at ports and train idling. This revised guidance document titled Health Risk Assessment Guidance for Analyzing Cancer Risks from Mobile Source Diesel Idling Emissions for CEQA Air Quality Analysis was presented to and approved by the SCAQMD s Mobile Source Committee at its March committee meeting. The SCAQMD suggests that projects with diesel powered mobile sources use the guidance document to quantify potential cancer risks from the diesel particulate emissions. Local City of Los Angeles The City assesses the air quality impacts of new development projects requires mitigation of potentially significant air quality impacts by conditioning discretionary permits and monitors and enforces implementation of such mitigation. The City utilizes the SCAQMD CEQA Air Quality Handbook as the guidance document for the environmental review of plans and development proposals within its jurisdiction. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS Air Quality Standards and Significance Thresholds The NAAQS are defined as the maximum acceptable concentration that may be reached but not exceeded more than once per year. California has adopted more stringent ambient air quality standards for most of the criteria air pollutants. Table 2 presents both sets of ambient air quality standards (i.e. national and State) and the Basin s attainment status for each standard. As the agency principally responsible for comprehensive air pollution control in the Basin the SCAQMD recommends that projects should be evaluated in terms of air pollution control thresholds established by the SCAQMD and published in the CEQA Air Quality Handbook. These thresholds were developed by the SCAQMD to provide quantifiable levels to which projects can be compared. The most current significance thresholds are shown in Table 3 SCAQMD Air Quality Significance Thresholds and are used in this analysis. Page 8

13 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project Air Pollutant Ozone (O 3 ) Carbon Monoxide (CO) Nitrogen Dioxide (NO 2 ) Lead (Pb) Sulfur Dioxide (SO 2 ) Particulate Matter 10 (PM 10 ) Particulate Matter 2.5 (PM 2.5 ) Table 2 Ambient Air Quality Standards and Attainment Status for the South Coast Air Basin (Los Angeles County Portion) SCAQMD Attainment Status Averaging Time State Standard Federal Standard California Standard 0.09 ppm 1 Hour (180 µg/m 3 Revoked Nonattainment ) ppm ppm 8 Hour (extreme) (137µg/m 3 ) (147µg/m 3 ) 1 Hour 20.0 ppm 35.0 ppm (23000 µg/m 3 ) (40000 µg/m 3 ) 8 Hour 9.0 ppm 9.0 ppm (10000 µg/m 3 ) (10000 µg/m 3 ) Attainment 1 Hour 0.18 ppm 0.10 ppm (339 µg/m 3 ) (188 µg/m 3 ) Attainment Annual 0.03 ppm ppm (57 µg/m 3 ) (100 µg/m 3 ) Attainment 30 Day Avg. 1.5 µg/m 3 -- Nonattainment Calendar Qtr µg/m 3 1 Hour 0.25 ppm ppm 24 Hour 0.04 ppm -- Attainment 24 Hour 50.0 µg/m µg/m 3 Nonattainment Annual 20.0 µg/m 3 Revoked 24 Hour µg/m 3 Nonattainment Annual 12.0 µg/m µg/m 3 Federal Primary Standard Non-attainment (extreme) Attainment N/A Attainment Attainment Attainment Non-attainment Non-attainment (serious) Notes: ppm = parts by volume per million of air µg/m 3 =micrograms per cubic meter Sources: California Air Resources Board Ambient Air Quality Standards website: and California Air Resources Board State Area Designation Maps website: Page 9

14 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project Table 3 SCAQMD Air Quality Significance Thresholds Mass Daily Thresholds a Pollutant Construction Operation NOx 100 pounds/day 55 pounds/day VOC b 75 pounds/day 55 pounds/day PM pounds/day 150 pounds/day PM pounds/day 55 pounds/day SO x 150 pounds/day 150 pounds/day CO 550 pounds/day 550 pounds/day Lead 3 pounds/day 3 pounds/day Toxic Air Contaminants and Odor Thresholds Toxic Air Contaminants (including Maximum Incremental Cancer Risk 10 in 1 million Cancer Burden > 0.5 excess cancer cases (in areas 1 in 1 million) carcinogens and non-carcinogens) Hazard Index 1.0 (project increment) Odor Project creates an odor nuisance pursuant to SCAQMD Rule 402 GHG NO 2 1-hour average Annual average MT/yr CO2eq for industrial facilities Ambient Air Quality for Criteria Pollutants c SCAQMD is in attainment; project is significant if it causes or contributes to an exceedance of the following attainment standards: 0.10 ppm (federal) d 0.03 ppm (State) PM hour average Annual average 10.4 µg/m 3 (construction) e & 2.5 µg/m 3 (operation) 1.0 µg/m 3 PM hour average Sulfate 24-hour average CO 1-hour average 8-hour average 10.4 µg/m 3 (construction) e & 2.5 µg/m 3 (operation) 25 µg/m 3 (state) SCAQMD is in attainment; project is significant if it causes or Contributes to an exceedance of the following attainment standards: 20 ppm (state) and 25 ppm (federal) 9.0 ppm (state/federal) Notes: ppm = parts per million by volume; µg/m 3 = micrograms per cubic meter a Source: SCAQMD CEQA Handbook (SCAQMD 1993). b The definition of VOC includes ROG compounds and additional organic compounds not included in the definition of ROG. However for the purposes of this evaluation VOC and ROG will be considered synonymous. c Ambient air quality thresholds for criteria pollutants based on SCAQMD Rule 1303 table A-2 unless otherwise stated. d In January 2010 the U.S. EPA proposed a new 1-hour national air quality standard of 0.10 ppm for NO 2 which is more stringent than the state s current 1-hour threshold of 0.18 ppm. For the purposes of conducting a conservative analysis the more stringent national one-hour standard for NO 2 is used as a threshold in the evaluation of the Project s air quality impacts. e Ambient air quality threshold based on SCAQMD Rule 403. Source: SCAQMD Air Quality Significance Thresholds website: Revision March 2011; accessed November Page 10

15 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project Methodology Source Identification The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) Traffic and Vehicle Data Systems Unit collects and maintains traffic volume counts for vehicles traversing the California state highway system. Consistent with SCAQMD recommendations the roadway segment lengths analyzed in this study were determined based on freeway segments located within an approximate 0.25-mile radius of the Project Site boundaries. Table 4 presents the annual average daily traffic volumes (AADT) and peak hour traffic volumes for the freeway segments considered in this assessment. Table 4 Freeway and Ramp Traffic Volumes Sources/Freeway Segment Post Mile AADT Peak Hour Freeway - Main Segment Freeway North & South (0.60 miles) Ramps East Freeway to 405 North Freeway (0.40 miles) West Freeway to 405 North Freeway (0.34 miles) North On-ramp from Olympic/Pico Blvds. (0.12 miles) Source: California Department of Transportation; December Emissions Calculations Vehicle emissions contribute significantly to localized concentrations of air contaminants. Typically emissions generated from these sources are characterized by vehicle mix the rate pollutants are generated during the course of travel (i.e. the speed of travel) and the number of vehicles traversing the roadway network. Based on the source parameters identified in Table 4 the Caltrans CT-EMFAC 9 model was used to estimate emission totals for the following criteria pollutants: CO NO x PM 10 and PM 2.5. CT-EMFAC was also used to determine emissions of the following six primary mobile source air toxics (MSATs): diesel particulate matter (DPM) formaldehyde 13 butadiene benzene acrolein and acetaldehyde. Appendix B to this assessment includes the detailed results for the CT-EMFAC model scenarios. For purposes of this assessment on-road mobile sources were assumed to generate minimal quantities of SO x and no measurable quantities of lead. Thus these pollutants were not evaluated within the scope of this study. 9 CT-EMFAC is an interpretation of the California Air Resource Board s EMFAC 2007 model that simplifies the process of developing composite emission factors for highway project air quality analysis. It also extends EMFAC to include EPA s 2007 priority mobile source air toxics which require off-model speciation of Total Organic Gases (TOG) when the standard EMFAC model is used. Page 11

16 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project Dispersion Modeling The AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD) was utilized to quantify the concentrations of each identified pollutant at the Project Site. AERMOD is steady-state plume modeling system specially designed to support the EPA s regulatory modeling programs. AERMOD allows the user to conduct sitespecific modeling with the use of various inputs including source types receptor locations terrain data meteorological conditions and much more. Consistent with SCAQMD recommendations the roadway segments for this assessment were modeled as line sources represented by separated volume sources. Discrete receptors were placed on the Project Site boundaries and within the Project Site to represent ground-level receptors at the Project Site. Terrain data for the Project Site vicinity was imported from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) online database and meteorological data for the West Los Angeles area was imported from the SCAQMD online database. When modeling NO 2 AERMOD contains OLM and PVMRM options for modeling the conversion of NO x to NO 2. For the Proposed Project the PVMRM option was run using an ambient equilibrium NO 2 /NO x ratio of 0.90 in stack NO 2 /NO x ratio of 0.10 and hourly ozone data was imported from the SCAQMD online database. For all of the remaining details regarding the inputs and assumptions used in the dispersion modeling please refer to Appendix C to this HRA which includes the AERMOD output files. Cancer Risk and Health Calculations Health risks associated with exposure to carcinogenic compounds can be defined in terms of the probability of developing cancer as a result of exposure to a chemical at a given concentration. The cancer risk for a particular chemical of interest is based on the following: Cancer Risk = S i * C i * DBR * A * EF * ED/AT Where: S i = C i = Cancer Potency Factor for contaminant Concentration in the air of contaminant DBR = Daily Breathing Rate A = EF = ED = AT = Inhalation Absorption Rate Exposure Frequency Exposure Duration Averaging Time OEHHA recommends the 70-year exposure duration (ED) be used for determining residential cancer risks. Exposure durations of 9 years and 30 years may also be evaluated as supplemental information to show the range of cancer risk based on residency periods. Lifetime or 70-year exposure is the historical benchmark for comparing impacts on receptors and for evaluating the effectiveness of air pollution control measures. Although it is not likely that most people will reside at a single residence for 70 years it is common that people will spend their entire lives in a major urban area. While residing in urban areas it is very possible to be exposed to emissions at the next residence. In order to help ensure that people do not accumulate an excess unacceptable cancer risk from cumulative exposure OEHHA recommends Page 12

17 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project using the 70-year exposure duration for risk management decisions. This analysis presents cancer risks for 9 year (child exposure) 30 year and 70 year residential exposure duration. In addition a worker s 40-year exposure duration has also been included to disclose potential cancer risks to future workers at proposed commercial uses of the Project. See Appendix A to this HRA for a detailed breakdown of these assumptions. Noncancer chronic inhalation impacts are calculated by dividing the annual average concentration by the Reference Exposure Level (REF) for that substance. The REL is defined as the concentration at which no adverse noncancer health effects are anticipated. For a single substance this result is called the Hazard Quotient (HQ). The following equation is used to calculate the HQ: HQ = Where: C i = C i /REL i Concentration in the air of substance i REL i = Chronic noncancer Reference Exposure Level for substance i For multiple substances the Hazard Index (HI) is calculated. The HI is calculated by summing the HQs from all substances that affect the same organ system. The calculation for the acute noncancer impacts is similar to the procedure for chronic noncancer impacts. In most cases for each substance the acute HQ is the highest one-hour concentration divided by the acute REL for each substance. For the Proposed Project acute 1-hour and acute 8-hour scenarios have been calculated and HI have been summed for each applicable HQ and organ system. These calculation methodologies are based on the OEHHA Air Toxics Hot Spots Program Guidance Manual for the Preparation of Health Risk Assessments August Project Impacts The Proposed Project would expose future residents visitors and employees to an area that is subject to increased emissions associated with the 405 Freeway. As such the Project would expose future occupants to adverse heath effects associated with exposure to unhealthful ambient air quality. Consistent with the methodology discusses above the following project impacts address the potential exposurerelated impacts for criteria pollutants carcinogenic exposure (i.e. cancer risk) and non-carcinogenic health hazards. It should be noted the following analysis is a tiered approach. The first set of analyses is based on the Project Site s worst-case location in relationship to the 405 Freeway. For impact areas that exceed thresholds of significance at this worst-case location a supplemental analysis has been conducted to show the level impact at the nearest proposed sensitive use to the 405 Freeway (dwelling unit) located approximately 300 feet east of the 405 Freeway. See Section II Project Description of the Draft EIR for illustrations of the proposed site plan. Page 13

18 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project Worst-case Location on the Project Site Criteria Pollutants Based on the parameters and assumptions outlined above Table 5 presents the estimated concentration at the Project Site s worst-case location for each criteria pollutant and averaging time. As shown in Table 5 freeway emission concentrations at this location with respect to CO (1-hour and 8-hour) would be below the SCAQMD threshold of significance level and would thus be considered less than significant. For NO 2 a maximum 1-hour concentration of µg/m 3 was predicted. This concentration when added to the existing background level of 320 µg/m 3 would cause an exceedance of the national ambient air quality standard for NO 2 and as such would be considered a potentially significant impact. In addition freeway emission concentrations with respect to PM 10 (24-hour and annual) and PM 2.5 (24-hour) would exceed the SCAQMD threshold of significance. As such impacts with respect to criteria pollutant concentrations from freeway emissions would be considered potentially significant prior to mitigation. Pollutant Averaging Time Freeway + Background Table 5 Criteria Pollutant Impact Summary at Worst-Case Location Freeway Background Freeway Impact + Incremental Pollutant Background Impact Concentration (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) a (µg/m 3 ) SCAQMD Threshold (µg/m 3 ) b Significant Impact? NO 2 1-hour Yes CO 1-hour No Freeway Incremental 8-hour No PM hour 4.72 N/A N/A 2.5 Yes Annual 2.97 N/A N/A 1.0 Yes PM hour 4.37 N/A N/A 2.5 Yes a Highest measured concentration in SRA 2 from 2007 to See Table 1. b For NO 2 and CO a significant impact would occur if a particular source would combine with the background pollutant levels to create an exccedance of the attainment standards. The federal 1-hour attainment standard of 0.10 ppm for NO 2 was used for this assessment as it is more stringent than the CAAQS. Since the Basin is in non-attainment for PM specific incremental thresholds have been identified by the SCAQMD. Cancer Risk For carcinogenic exposures the summation of risk from all six primary MSATs (DPM formaldehyde 13 butadiene benzene acrolein and acetaldehyde) for the worst-case Project Site location totaled a carcinogenic risk of 550 per one million for the 70-year residential exposure scenario. This scenario is based on a 70 year 24-hour per day seven day per week exposure. The 70-year lifetime exposure is a worst-case assumption and is thus required to be reported for all Health Risk Assessments. Shorter exposure periods can be appropriate depending on the situation. As stated previously exposure durations Page 14

19 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project of 9 years (child) 30 years and 40 years (worker) may also be evaluated as supplemental information to show the range of cancer risk based on residency periods children or future worker periods. The 9-year (child) exposure scenario totaled a carcinogenic risk of 106 per one million. The 30-year residential receptor scenario totaled a carcinogenic risk of 236 per one million. The 40-year worker receptor scenario totaled a carcinogenic risk of 108 per one million. Appendix A to this HRA provides a detailed breakdown of these calculations. Table 6 below summarizes the carcinogenic risk associated with each of the exposure scenarios analyzed at the worst-case location on the Project Site. In summary the Project Site s worst-case location would be exposed to cancer risk in excess of the SCAQMD significance threshold of 10 per one million. As a result exposure levels at this location would be considered potentially significant prior to mitigation. Table 6 Summary of Carcinogenic Risks at the Worst-Case Project Site Location Risk Scenario Carcinogenic Risk Per One Million* 70 Year (Lifetime Resident Exposure) Year (Child Exposure) Year (Resident Exposure) Year (Worker Exposure) 108 See calculation worksheets presented in Appendix A. *The significance threshold is 10 per million. Non-Cancer Health Risk To quantify non-carcinogenic impacts at the Project Site s worst-case location the hazard index approach was used. This approach assumes that chronic sub-threshold exposures adversely affect a specific organ or organ system (toxicological endpoint). To calculate the hazard index each chemical s concentration or dose is divided by the appropriate toxicity value. For compounds affecting the same toxicological endpoint this ratio is summed. Where the total is equal to or exceeds one a health hazard is presumed to exist. As detailed in Table 1 in Appendix A to this HRA a chronic hazard index of would occur for the Project Site s worst-case location which is below the SCAQMD recommended threshold. For acute exposures the maximum hazard indices for 1 and 8-hour averaging times totaled and respectively. These indices would also be under the SCAQMD recommended threshold. Therefore non-cancer health risks are within the SCAQMD acceptable limit at the Project Site s worst-case location and these impacts would be less than significant without mitigation. Nearest Proposed Sensitive Land Use on the Project Site to the 405 Freeway Based on the potentially significant impacts discussed above for the Project Site s worst-case locations the following supplemental analysis has been included to show the reduced impacts as a result of the Project s site plan and design. Please note only the previously identified potentially significant impact issue areas have been included in this portion of the assessment. It was assumed that if any of the previously noted impacts would be less than significant at the worst-case location then they would also be less than Page 15

20 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project significant for the entire site and no further analyses of those issue areas are required. Criteria Pollutants Table 7 presents the estimated concentrations at the nearest proposed sensitive land use to the 405 Freeway for the Proposed Project. For NO 2 a maximum 1-hour concentration of µg/m 3 was predicted. This concentration when added to the existing background level of 320 µg/m 3 would cause an exceedance of the national ambient air quality standard for NO 2 and as such would be considered a potentially significant impact. In addition freeway emission concentrations with respect to PM 10 (24- hour and annual) and PM 2.5 (24-hour) would exceed the SCAQMD threshold of significance. As such impacts with respect to these criteria pollutant concentrations from freeway emissions would be considered potentially significant prior to mitigation. Table 7 Criteria Pollutant Impact Summary at Nearest Proposed Sensitive Land Use to the 405 Freeway Freeway Background Freeway Impact + SCAQMD Averaging Incremental Pollutant Significant Pollutant Background Threshold Time Impact Concentration (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) a (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) b Impact? Freeway + Background NO 2 1-hour Yes Freeway Incremental PM hour 3.35 N/A N/A 2.5 Yes Annual 2.29 N/A N/A 1.0 Yes PM hour 3.10 N/A N/A 2.5 Yes a Highest measured concentration in SRA 2 from 2007 to See Table 1. b For NO 2 and CO a significant impact would occur if a particular source would combine with the background pollutant levels to create an exccedance of the attainment standards. The federal 1-hour attainment standard of 0.10 ppm for NO 2 was used for this assessment as it is more stringent than the CAAQS. Since the Basin is in non-attainment for PM specific incremental thresholds have been identified by the SCAQMD. Cancer Risk For carcinogenic exposures the summation of risk from all six primary MSATs (DPM formaldehyde 13 butadiene benzene acrolein and acetaldehyde) for the nearest proposed sensitive use location totaled a carcinogenic risk of 424 per one million for the 70-year residential exposure scenario. This scenario is based on a 70 year 24-hour per day seven day per week exposure. The 70-year lifetime exposure is a worst-case assumption and is thus required to be reported for all Health Risk Assessments. Shorter exposure periods can be appropriate depending on the situation. As stated previously exposure durations of 9 years (child) 30 years and 40 years (worker) may also be evaluated as supplemental information to show the range of cancer risk based on residency periods children or future worker periods. The 9-year (child) exposure scenario totaled a carcinogenic risk of 82 per one million. The 30-year residential receptor scenario totaled a carcinogenic risk of 182 per one million. The 40-year worker receptor scenario totaled a carcinogenic risk of 84 per one million. Appendix A to this HRA provides a detailed Page 16

21 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project breakdown of these calculations. Table 8 below summarizes the carcinogenic risk associated with each of the exposure scenarios analyzed at the nearest proposed sensitive receptor to the 405 Freeway. In summary the Proposed Project s sensitive receptors would be exposed to cancer risk in excess of the SCAQMD significance threshold of 10 per one million. As a result carcinogenic risks would be considered potentially significant prior to mitigation. Table 8 Summary of Carcinogenic Risks at the Worst-Case Project Site Location Risk Scenario Carcinogenic Risk Per One Million* 70 Year (Lifetime Resident Exposure) Year (Child Exposure) Year (Resident Exposure) Year (Worker Exposure) 84 See calculation worksheets presented in Appendix A. *The significance threshold is 10 per million. CONCLUSION AND MITIGATION MEASURES As discussed above potentially significant impacts would occur with respect to carcinogenic risk maximum 1-hour concentrations of NO 2 concentrations for PM 10 (24-hour and annual) and PM 2.5 (24-hour). It should be noted that DPM contributed to more than 94 percent of the identified carcinogenic risk values for all exposure durations. To mitigate the exposure to adverse health effects associated with diminished ambient air pollution levels in the project vicinity the Department of City Planning recommends project s incorporate air filtration systems with filters meeting or exceeding the ASHRAE 52.2 Minimum Efficiency Reporting Value (MERV) of 13 to the satisfaction of the Department of Building and Safety (see Mitigation Measure C-5 in Section IV.C Air Quality of the Draft EIR). While MERV 13 filters would be effective in improving indoor air quality as compared to lower efficiency filters SCAQMD states filters with this rating typically achieve a dust spot efficiency of approximately 85% for PM 10 and PM 2.5. Assuming an efficiency of 85% mitigated indoor PM 10 (24-hour) concentrations would total 0.50 µg/m 3 mitigated indoor PM 10 (annual) concentrations would total 0.34 µg/m 3 and mitigated indoor PM 2.5 (24-hour) concentrations would total 0.47 µg/m 3. All of these concentrations would be under the SCAQMD recommended thresholds of significance for indoor PM. However it should be noted that no feasible and quantifiable mitigation is available to reduce outdoor PM to levels below the thresholds of significance. Furthermore it should be noted that the proposed particulate filtration would not serve to reduce the predicted indoor or outdoor NO 2 1-hour concentrations. Thus impacts with respect to exposure to outdoor PM and outdoor and indoor NO 2 1-hour concentrations would be considered significant and unavoidable. With respect to carcinogenic risk DPM (the main contributor to the identified impact) is classified as ultrafine particulate (less than PM 0.1 ) and thus the proposed indoor air filtration would have no measureable Page 17

22 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project affect at lowering the indoor carcinogenic risk at the Project Site. No feasible mitigation is available to reduce the indoor or outdoor carcinogenic risk impacts at the Project Site to levels below the thresholds of significance. As such these impacts would be considered significant and unavoidable. It should be noted that while no quantifiable mitigation measures are available to measurably reduce the identified impacts to less than significant levels there are several available mitigation strategies that could nevertheless improve outdoor and indoor air quality at the Project Site. These strategies include: Locate open space areas (courtyards patios balconies etc.) as far from the freeway sources as possible; Plant vegetation between receptors and freeway sources; Consider site plan design minimizing operable windows and building frontages to the freeway; Consider options for mechanical and ventilation systems (i.e. supply or exhaust based systems); If a supply-based system is proposed (i.e. actively bringing outside air through intake ducts) consider locating intakes as far from the freeway sources as possible. While these measures would not bring impacts to a less than significant level they should be considered feasible strategies at improving air quality at the Project Site. Page 18

23 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project REFERENCES AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD) California Air Pollution Control Officers Association (CAPCOA) Health Risk Assessments for Proposed Land Use Project Guidance Document July 2009 California Air Resources Board (CARB) Air Quality and Land Use Handbook April 2005 Ambient Air Quality Standards ( Historical Data by Year ( State Area Designation Maps ( California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) CT-EMFAC ( Traffic and Vehicle Data Systems Unit ( California Environmental Quality Act Section (a) California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA) Air Toxics Hot Spots Program Guidance Manual for the Preparation of Risk August 2003 Hot Spots Unit Risk and Cancer Potency Values ( Acute and Chronic REL Summary ( Google Earth 2012 South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) Air Quality Significance Thresholds ( CEQA Air Quality Handbook 1993 Meteorological Data for AERMOD ( Multiple Air Toxics Exposure Study III Final Report September United States Geological Survey (USGS) Page 19

24 January Health Risk Assessment for the Casden Sepulveda Project LIST OF PREPARERS Parker Environmental Consultants LLC W. Avenue Stanford Suite 209 Santa Clarita California tel: (661) fax: (661) Shane Parker President Brett Pomeroy Project Manager Page 20