GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS OF GLACIAL DYNAMICS OF SHIGAR AND SHAYOK BASINS. Syed Naseem Abbas Gilany 1

Transcription

1 GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS OF GLACIAL DYNAMICS OF SHIGAR AND SHAYOK BASINS 1

2 OUTLINE Introduction Problem Statement / Rationale Objectives Material and Methods Study Area Datasets Required Data Analysis / Assessment Results / Outcomes Conclusion 2

3 INTRODUCTION 3

4 Methods of Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar) Drilling Holes for Ice Thickness Measurement Geophysical (Seismic Ice Thickness Profile) Mathematical Models of Ice Thickness & Ice Reserves GRACE (Earth s Gravity Field) Cryosat-2 (Sat Based Radar) Ice plus Rock Column Depth 4

5 PROBLEM STATEMENT / RATIONALE The melting ice is a manifest of global warming. Alpine Glaciers are subjected to the climate change, which is a consequence of terrestrial heat flux. This research has resulted in determination of comparative assessment of Glacial dynamics in Shigar and Shayok basins in relation with temperature rise in northern areas and rise in anthropogenic activities. 5

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7 OBJECTIVES Hazard Prone Areas Identification Glacial Hazard Risk Index Estimation of Major Glaciers Depletion Correlation of Snow Coverage Depletion Subject to Anthropogenic Activities Comparative Glacial Hazard Assessment 7

8 DATA SETS IMAGERY Sat Qty Sensor Bands Time Lag (Yrs) Spatial Resolution (m) LandSat 6 Multi SPOT 30 Multi ASTER 30 Multi DEM Source Acquisition Yr Spatial Resolution ASTER m SRTM m 8

9 GLACIAL HAZARD RISK INDEX 9

10 GLACIAL HAZARD RISK INDICATORS Indicators Location Elevation Aspect Slope Description of Risk Location of a settlement vis-a-vis Glacier with abrupt changes in melting rate is dangerous Glaciers < ft height have direct relation with the probability of glacial hazard occurrence The glaciers facing South are more prone to glacial disaster as it endures more solar radiation causing depletion Glaciers having slope between % are prone to glacial hazards such as avalanches and slides Geomorphology Type of underneath surface of settlement 10

11 Qualitative Degree of Risk RISK INDEX Degree of Risk (%) Probability Dangerous High Very High High High Medium Moderate Medium Low 0-20 Low 11

12 GLACIAL HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT 12

13 GLACIERS DISTRIBUTION IN SHIGAR & SHYOK Biafo Baltoro Siachin 13

14 SETTLEMENT Glacier 14

15 GLACIER APROCHING SETTLEMENT PARAMETER VALUE LENGTH ASPECT 1791 m South SLOPE 31 % AREA 7.76 (Km) 2 THICKNESS m ICE RESERVE 0.68 (Km) 3 LAT 35 12' 05.64" N LONG 76 59' 43.53" E 15

16 LOCATION OF GLACIER SNOUT Glacier Snout 16

17 ELEVATION MODEL Glacier <14000 FT 17

18 ASPECT SHYOK RIVER BASIN Aspect wise snow coverage of Shyok River Basin 18

19 ASPECT MAP Glacier Settlement 19

20 SLOPE VISUALIZATION Glacier Settlement 20

21 GEOMORPHOLOGY DEBRIS GLACIER MASS MOVEMENT 21

22 PROBABILITY OF GLACIAL HAZARD OCCURRENCE SITE ABC Area Km 2 Degree of Risk (%) Qualitative Degree of Risk Dangerous Probability High 22

23 ASPECT - SHIGAR RIVER BASIN Aspect wise snow coverage of Shyok Aspect wise snow coverage of Shigar River Basin 23

24 RESULTS / OUTCOMES 24

25 GLACIERS IN SHIGAR & SHYOK SOUTH ASPECT Biafo Baltoro Siachin 25

26 GLACIERS IN SHIGAR & SHYOK ASPECT / SLOPE Biafo Baltoro Siachin 26

27 AREAS IN SHIGAR & SHYOK GLACIAL HAZARD Baltoro Siachin 27

28 GLACIAL HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT Settlement Degree of Risk Qualitative Degree of Risk (%) Probability Of Risk A Dangerous High B Very High High C High Medium 28

29 CONCLUSION The Shyok and Shigar basins having ice reserve of 2,738 km 3 are subjected to manifest of global warming which is causing their decay, posing the glacial hazard to the settlements in the vicinity. The aspect, slope, loc, elev and geomorphology are the major factors for volumetric decrease / depletion of the glaciers, which must be catered for a settlement. The Shyok basin is experiencing more glacial depletion in comparison with Shigar basin because of immense anthropogenic activities in the vicinity. 29

30 CONCLUSION The impacts of glaciers volumetric decrease / depletion like avalanches and outburst floods need monitoring and early warning systems to protect infrastructure. The settlement under threat of glacial mass movement and debris flow, located on the margins of an alluvial fan will make the probability of occurrences very high. The dangerous moraine dams formed as a consequence of volumetric decrease of glaciers, near the headwaters and settlements be monitored regularly. 30

31 THANKS 31