Summer 2018 Southern Company Temperature/Precipitation Forecast
|
|
- Bruce Ray
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Scott A. Yuknis High impact weather forecasts, climate assessment and prediction. 14 Boatwright s Loop Plymouth, MA Phone/Fax Cell: ClimateImpact@comcast.net Climate Impact Company Summer 2018 Outlook for Southern Company Valid: May to September 2017 Issued: Tuesday, March 27, 2017 Executive summary: The Climate Impact Company summer 2018 outlook for Southern Company shows marginally anomalous warm temperature and a dry start to summer ending wetter than normal. The caveat is hotter. Summer 2018 Southern Company Temperature/Precipitation Forecast 1
2 Climate discussion: We are VERY concerned about EXTREMES regarding the 2018 summer outlook for Southern Company. The frequency of extremes is increasing during recent climate. During the last 12 months Birmingham, AL has unusually warm and cold periods (Fig. 1) including 14 days when precipitation has totaled more than 1.5 in. (Fig. 2). Fig. 1-2: Temperature extremes and many heavy rain days have been observed the past 12 months in Birmingham, AL. The Southern Company 2018 Summer Forecast is based on ENSO analogs using their consensus for the operational forecast but also identifying the cold/hot and wet/dry extremes as outlier or CAVEAT forecasts. The analog years used to generate the Southern Company forecast for the summer 2018 season are 1996, 2001, 2006, 2009 and 2012 favoring the trend toward weak El Nino (2006, 2009 and 2012) for mid-to-late summer. The analog 2
3 years represent a climate transition out of La Nina and into neutral ENSO into mid-2018 and a potential trend toward weak E Nino by late summer. The ENSO analog calculation is based on operational Nino index (ONI) which is a running 3-month average of the Nino34 SSTA most common for ENSO phase assessment (Fig. 3). Fig. 3: The Southern Company Summer 2018 Forecast is driven by ENSO analog years. A transition of the Nin34 SSTA index out of La Nina this spring and toward weak El Nino next autumn is favored. The late summer/early autumn projection is made with low confidence. Currently, global SSTA is mixed warm and cool in the middle latitudes with a lingering La Nina signature in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). The NOAA/NMME global SSTA forecast model indicates neutral ENSO and warming of the North Pacific and North Atlantic for JUN/JUL/AUG 2018 (Fig. 5). The SSTA forecast favors the warmer possibilities for the Southeast U.S. Neutral ENSO is a confident summertime forecast. Of potential (significant) added influence to the Southern Company Summer 2018 Forecast is the warmer than normal North Atlantic basin identified by the warm phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (+AMO). On its own, +AMO increases risk 3
4 of summertime drought in the Southeast U.S. while also raising the risk of hurricane activity. A low certainty part of the forecast is can +AMO-induced drought risk be offset by risk of heavy rainfall due to an inland-moving tropical cyclone. Fig. 4: Current global SSTA analysis reveals a mix of warm and cool anomalies across the North Pacific and North Atlantic characteristic of a changeable mid-latitude climate while La Nina lingers in the equatorial East Pacific. Fig. 5: The NOAA/NMME global SSTA forecast for JUN/JUL/AUG 2018 indicates a warm-up for the North Pacific and North Atlantic basins while ENSO is neutral. 4
5 Soil moisture is a significant contribution summertime climate. Currently, drought conditions are affecting the Southeast U.S. (Fig. 6). Dry conditions in the Southeast U.S. are typical of a wintertime La Nina climate. La Nina weakens during the 2018 warm season. However, to reverse drought in the Southeast U.S. a wintertime El Nino is required OR remnants of inlandmoving tropical cyclones. Therefore the Southeast drought is likely to continue this summer season only changing of a tropical cyclone moves inland in the region. Fig. 6: The NOAA/USDA soil moisture analysis across the Southeast U.S. reveals a drought condition unlikely to change during summer unless a tropical cyclone moves inland. Forecast discussion: Based on the analog years mentioned a consensus forecast is displayed and the outlook for Southern Company is based on these charts. Of added important interest is the potential extreme. Given 5
6 presence of drought in the Southeast U.S. there is risk of a hotter than forecast regime. Using the analog years the warmest potential solution is also indicated as the caveat forecast to the operational outlook. 1. May 2018: A warmer than normal pattern is expected across the Southeast U.S. The hottest anomalies are across the Southwest U.S. beneath an upper level ridge pattern. The occasional upper trough pattern, producing showers is across the East and will produce wetter than normal weather across the east/south Georgia drought region in May. Fig. 7-8: Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for temperature and precipitation anomalies for May 2018 is indicated. 2. June 2017: The largescale drought across the Southwest U.S. continues to attract anomalous heat beneath high pressure ridging. The downstream effect is occasional presence of an upper trough producing a wet start to meteorological summer in the Northeast. Trailing the Northeast upper trough is occasional cool air masses which reach the Southeast States. At other times heat surging eastward from the Southwest U.S. source region is also present. The combination of the two opposing thermal regimes causes a normally warm start to summer in the Southeast U.S. The rainfall outlook is confidently drier than normal possibly causing Southeast drought to strengthen leading to a potentially hotter CAVEAT forecast. 6
7 Fig. 9-11: Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for temperature and precipitation anomalies for June 2018 is indicated. The warm extreme caveat forecast for the Southeast is added. 3. July 2017: The mid-summer outlook finds sprawling anomalous heat extending from the Southwest U.S. drought region throughout the West and into the Great Plains and Texas. Once again the susceptibility to wet weather suppressing mid-summer heat is in the eastern half of the nation although Georgia looks dry. There is potential for a tropical episode to affect the northwest Gulf States with the inland moving system dragging rains northeastward toward the Appalachian Spine. Due to the generally dry climate the Southeast CAVEAT forecast is potentially hotter. 7
8 Fig : Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for temperature and precipitation anomalies for July 2018 is indicated. The warm extreme caveat forecast for the Southeast is added. 4. August 2017: The August forecast is made with low confidence due to uncertainty in a developing cool pattern over the North-Central U.S. The wet weather is caused by presence of an upper trough likely to invite tropical moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico causing wetter than normal climate across the Southeast U.S. The wetter regime suppresses late summer heat. If the rains fail a hotter CAVEAT forecast prevails. 8
9 Fig : Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for temperature and precipitation anomalies for August 2018 is indicated. The warm extreme caveat forecast for the Southeast is added. 5. September: The late summer forecast widens heat suppressing rainfall stretching from Texas to the Ohio Valley. The rainfall is not likely associated with inland moving tropical cyclones. The Southeast U.S. is temperate with wet weather in Alabama. 9
10 Fig : Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for temperature and precipitation anomalies for September 2018 is indicated. 6. Meteorological summer (JUN/JUL/AUG 2018): The Climate Impact Company meteorological summer temperature and precipitation outlook indicates hotter than normal conditions across the western half of the U.S., dryness in the Great Plains and a wet regime in the Northwest U.S. The NOAA forecast is similar except hotter in the Southeast U.S. with less widespread dryness sin the Central States. Fig : Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for temperature and precipitation anomalies for meteorological summer 2018 is indicated. 10
11 Fig : The NOAA Climate Prediction Center summertime 2018 probabilistic temperature and precipitation outlook are indicated. Southern Company forecast: The Southern Company Summer 2018 Forecast charts indicate a warmer and slightly wetter than normal month of May followed by borderline warmer than normal and anomalous dry months of June and July (Fig ). A wetter regime is expected in August and September suppressing anomalous heat. The Alabama and Georgia monthly CDD forecasts for summer 2018 are very close to the 30-year normal and somewhat less hot than the last 3 years (Fig ). The CAVEAT forecast is hotter and closer to the mean value of the past 3 summer seasons. The extreme heat forecast is also indicated (Fig ). The 2017 outlook was warmer than normal each month of summer while observed temperature was much more volatile averging near or cooler than normal in May, June and August and hotter than normal in July and September (Fig. 30). The precipitation outlook was drier than for July and August, near normal early summer and wette rthan normal in September (Fig. 31). Observed values were generally somewhat wette rthan normal. 11
12 Fig. 24: The Southern Company warm season SYSTEM departure from normal temperature for each month is indicated. Fig. 25: The Southern Company warm season SYSTEM departure from normal precipitation for each month is indicated. 12
13 Fig. 26: The Alabama gas home cooling CDD forecast for each month of the warm season compared to normal and the past 3 years. Fig. 27: The Georgia gas home cooling CDD forecast for each month of the warm season compared to normal and the past 3 years. 13
14 Fig. 28: The Southern Company forecast of days with maximum temperature exceeding 90F for the summer season compared to last year. Fig. 29: The Southern Company forecast of days with maximum temperature exceeding 95F for the summer season compared to last year. 14
15 Fig. 30: The Climate Impact Company original temperature anomaly forecast for summer 2017 versus observed values. Fig. 31: The Climate Impact Company original precipitation anomaly forecast for summer 2017 versus observed values. 15
Highlight: Support for a dry climate increasing.
Scott A. Yuknis High impact weather forecasts, climate assessment and prediction. 14 Boatwright s Loop Plymouth, MA 02360 Phone/Fax 508.927.4610 Cell: 508.813.3499 ClimateImpact@comcast.net Climate Impact
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College December 5, 2017 Summary: November was relatively cool and wet from central California throughout most of
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College March 7, 2018 Summary: The ridge pattern that brought drier and warmer conditions from December through most
More informationMDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK. Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL
MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL GLOBAL GRAIN NORTH AMERICA 2014 Agenda Spring Recap North America Forecast El Niño Discussion
More information2015 Summer Forecast
2015 Summer Forecast Inside This Forecast Summer 2014 Recap 2 Implications of El Niño and the PDO on the Upcoming Summer Summary of Global Indices & Oscillations Analog Year: The Midwest a battleground
More information2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care
2013 Summer Weather Outlook Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care Role of the ERCOT Meteorologist Forecasts Develop temperature input for hourly load forecasts (next day, days
More informationCalifornia 120 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued Tom Dunklee Global Climate Center
California 120 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued 11-01-2008 Tom Dunklee Global Climate Center This is my second updated outlook for precipitation patterns and amounts for the next 4 s of the current rainy
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University August 4, 2017 July largely held true to forecast, although it ended with the start of one of the most extreme
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College February 5, 2018 Summary: For the majority of the month of January the persistent ridge of high pressure
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College January 5, 2018 Summary: A persistent ridge of high pressure over the west in December produced strong inversions
More informationHow Patterns Far Away Can Influence Our Weather. Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK
Teleconnections How Patterns Far Away Can Influence Our Weather Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK Teleconnections Connectedness of large-scale weather patterns across the world If you poke
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast August 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast August 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College August 5, 2018 Summary: July 2018 will likely go down as one of the top five warmest July s on record for many
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016
Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016 Date: Dec 17, 2015 1. Advisory Most models are showing the continuation of a strong El-Niño episode towards the latesummer season with the expectation to start
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University February 7, 2017 What a difference from last year at this time. Temperatures in January and February
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast April 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast April 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College April 4, 2018 Summary: A near Miracle March played out bringing cooler and wetter conditions to the majority
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2017 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College October 4, 2017 Summary: Typical variability in September temperatures with the onset of fall conditions evident
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Fall/Winter 2016
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Fall/Winter 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University November 5, 2016 After a year where we were seemingly off by a month in terms of temperatures (March
More informationClimate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for November 2017 1.1 In November 2017, Southeast Asia experienced inter-monsoon conditions in the first
More informationNational Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook
National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook National Interagency Fire Center Predictive Services Issued: September, 2007 Wildland Fire Outlook September through December 2007 Significant fire
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2019 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2019 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College January 4, 2019 Summary: December was mild and dry over much of the west, while the east was much warmer than
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 April 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationAn ENSO-Neutral Winter
An ENSO-Neutral Winter This issue of the Blue Water Outlook newsletter is devoted towards my thoughts on the long range outlook for winter. You will see that I take a comprehensive approach to this outlook
More informationPage 1 of 5 Home research global climate enso effects Research Effects of El Niño on world weather Precipitation Temperature Tropical Cyclones El Niño affects the weather in large parts of the world. The
More informationPercentage of normal rainfall for April 2018 Departure from average air temperature for April 2018
New Zealand Climate Update No 227, May 2018 Current climate April 2018 Overall, April 2018 was characterised by lower pressure than normal over and to the southeast of New Zealand. Unlike the first three
More informationWeather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX. Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio
Weather Outlook for Spring and Summer in Central TX Aaron Treadway Meteorologist National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Outline A Look Back At 2014 Spring 2015 So Far El Niño Update Climate Prediction
More informationSeasonal Climate Forecast August October 2013 Verification (Issued: November 17, 2013)
Seasonal Climate Forecast August October 2013 Verification (Issued: November 17, 2013) Note: This product is published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in cooperation with the Oregon Department
More informationNew Zealand Climate Update No 226, April 2018 Current climate March 2018
New Zealand Climate Update No 226, April 2018 Current climate March 2018 March 2018 was characterised by significantly higher pressure than normal to the east of New Zealand. This pressure pattern, in
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 26, 2004 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic NiZo Index
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University December 5, 2016 Well after an October that felt more like November, we just finished a November that
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2016
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University August 5, 2016 The month of July saw the continued flip, flop of the western US temperatures. It was warm
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 October 2017
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 October 2017 Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationClimate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (
More informationSouth & South East Asian Region:
Issued: 15 th December 2017 Valid Period: January June 2018 South & South East Asian Region: Indonesia Tobacco Regions 1 A] Current conditions: 1] El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO Alert System
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2016
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University June 6, 2016 May 2016 continued the warm trend for portions of the west, while providing some relief for
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for January 2018 1.1 The prevailing Northeast monsoon conditions over Southeast Asia strengthened in January
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College October 4, 2018 Summary: Much of Washington, Oregon, coastal California and the Bay Area and delta region
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (May 2017)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (May 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in April 2017 1.1 Inter monsoon conditions, characterised by afternoon showers and winds that are generally
More informationENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 November 2015
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 November 2015 Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast November 2017 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast November 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College November 7, 2017 Summary: October was relatively cool and wet north, while warm and very dry south. Dry conditions
More informationBy: J Malherbe, R Kuschke
2015-10-27 By: J Malherbe, R Kuschke Contents Summary...2 Overview of expected conditions over South Africa during the next few days...3 Significant weather events (27 October 2 November)...3 Conditions
More informationJEFF JOHNSON S Winter Weather Outlook
JEFF JOHNSON S 2017-2018 Winter Weather Outlook TABLE OF CONTENTS ABOUT THE AUTHOR Components of the seasonal outlook... 2 ENSO state/ocean temperatures... 3 Sub-seasonal outlooks... 4 Forecast models...
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationSeasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014
Ministry of Earth Sciences Earth System Science Organization India Meteorological Department WMO Regional Climate Centre (Demonstration Phase) Pune, India Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June
More informationSeasonal Outlook through September 2007
Seasonal Outlook through September 2007 Klaus Wolter (15may) University of Colorado, CIRES & NOAA-ESRL Climate Analysis Branch klaus.wolter@noaa.gov http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/swcasts/
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2019 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2019 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College March 2, 2019 Summary: Dramatic flip from a mild winter to a top five coldest February on record in many locations
More informationImpacts of Climate on the Corn Belt
Impacts of Climate on the Corn Belt Great Lakes Crop Summit 2015 2015 Evelyn Browning Garriss Conclusions Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows. Recent polar volcano eruptions created a cool
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño
More informationNew Zealand Climate Update No 223, January 2018 Current climate December 2017
New Zealand Climate Update No 223, January 2018 Current climate December 2017 December 2017 was characterised by higher than normal sea level pressure over New Zealand and the surrounding seas. This pressure
More informationENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM
ENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM El Nino is still hanging on but likely not for very long. Warmer than normal water can still be seen along the equator in the tropical Pacific. It is even warmer in the
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer into Harvest 2016
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer into Harvest 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University September 3, 2016 With school and football season starting a hint of fall is right on time
More informationPRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Event Response
PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2014 - RMS Event Response 2014 SEASON OUTLOOK The 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season saw the fewest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin
More informationWinter. Here s what a weak La Nina usually brings to the nation with tempseraures:
2017-2018 Winter Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2017-2018. El Nino /
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: July 18, 2014 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: July 18, 2014 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com JUNE 2014 REVIEW Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average temperature for
More informationPercentage of normal rainfall for August 2017 Departure from average air temperature for August 2017
New Zealand Climate Update No 219, August 2017 Current climate August 2017 Overall, mean sea level pressure was lower than normal over and to the west of New Zealand during August while higher than normal
More informationNew Zealand Climate Update No 222, November 2017 Current climate November 2017
New Zealand Climate Update No 222, November 2017 Current climate November 2017 November 2017 was characterised by higher than normal sea level pressure over New Zealand and the surrounding seas, particularly
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (September 2017)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (September 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in August 2017 1.1 Southwest Monsoon conditions continued to prevail in the region in August 2017. The
More informationDrought Impacts in the Southern Great Plains. Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK
Drought Impacts in the Southern Great Plains Mark Shafer University of Oklahoma Norman, OK Causes of Drought: Large-Scale, Stationary High Pressure Air rotates clockwise around high pressure steers storms
More informationNew Zealand Climate Update No 221, October 2017 Current climate October 2017
New Zealand Climate Update No 221, October 2017 Current climate October 2017 October 2017 was characterised by higher than normal sea level pressure over New Zealand and the surrounding seas. This consistent
More informationWeekly Weather Briefing. NWS Albuquerque. Tuesday Soaker. NWS Albuquerque August 25, Weekly Weather Briefing
Weekly Weather Briefing Weekly Weather Briefing Tuesday Soaker August 25, 2014 August 2014 vs. 2013 Precipitation Percent of Average August 1-24, 2014 August 2013 Weekly Weather Briefing ABQ **Preliminary**
More informationKUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT
T KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT 2 ALAYSIAN METEOROLOGICAL http://www.met.gov.my DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF SCIENCE. TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATIO Introduction Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the tropical
More informationSEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION
SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION David Walland Australian Bureau of Meteorology WMO RA-V Seminar on Climate Services Honiara, Solomon Islands, 1-4 November 2011 Overview Major climate Drivers in the region
More informationSouth & South East Asian Region:
Issued: 10 th November 2017 Valid Period: December 2017 May 2018 South & South East Asian Region: Indonesia Tobacco Regions 1 A] Current conditions: 1] El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO Alert System
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: SEPTEMBER 19, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP,
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: SEPTEMBER 19, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sroot@weatherbank.com SEPTEMBER 2016 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The contiguous
More information2011 Summer Operating Expected Conditions. Bulk Power Operations Power Coordination Center
2011 Summer Operating Expected Conditions Bulk Power Operations Power Coordination Center TOPICS 2010 Review 2011 SOCO Balancing Authority (BA) Area Summer Weather Forecast Peak Demand Forecast Transmission
More informationThe Weather Wire. Contents: Summer 2018 Outlook. Summer 2018 Outlook Drought Monitor May Summary/Statistics June Preview Rainfall Totals
The Weather Wire June 2018 Volume 25 Number 6 Contents: Summer 2018 Outlook Drought Monitor May Summary/Statistics June Preview Rainfall Totals Summer 2018 Outlook June 1 st marked the first day of meteorological
More information2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Cat Response
2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2013 - RMS Cat Response Season Outlook At the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, seasonal forecasts
More informationClimate Variability and El Niño
Climate Variability and El Niño David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University UF IFAS Extenstion IST January 17, 2017 The El
More informationNIDIS Weekly Climate, Water and Drought Assessment Summary. Upper Colorado River Basin September 27, 2011
NIDIS Weekly Climate, Water and Drought Assessment Summary Upper Colorado River Basin September 27, 2011 PrecipitaFon and Snowpack Fig. 1: Water year to date precipitafon as a percent of average. Fig.
More informationThe New Normal or Was It?
The New Normal or Was It? by Chuck Coffey The recent drought has caused many to reflect upon the past and wonder what is in store for the future. Just a couple of years ago, few agricultural producers
More informationClimate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)
Forecast of 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Activity April 5, 2018 Summary CFAN s inaugural April seasonal forecast for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is based on systematic interactions among ENSO, stratospheric
More informationWill a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall?
Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Nicholas P. Klingaman National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Walker Institute for Climate System Research University of Reading The Walker-QCCCE
More information2011 National Seasonal Assessment Workshop for the Eastern, Southern, & Southwest Geographic Areas
2011 National Seasonal Assessment Workshop for the Eastern, Southern, & Southwest Geographic Areas On January 11-13, 2011, wildland fire, weather, and climate met virtually for the ninth annual National
More informationNorth Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Last updated: August 2009
North Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Nicholas.Bond@noaa.gov Last updated: August 2009 Summary. The North Pacific atmosphere-ocean system from fall 2008 through
More informationSt Lucia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles St Lucia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationNational Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook
National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook National Interagency Fire Center Predictive Services Issued: April 1, 2008 Next Issue: May 1, 2008 Wildland Fire Outlook April 2008 through July 2008
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 18, 2017 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP,
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 18, 2017 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sroot@weatherbank.com MARCH 2017 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average contiguous
More information2015: A YEAR IN REVIEW F.S. ANSLOW
2015: A YEAR IN REVIEW F.S. ANSLOW 1 INTRODUCTION Recently, three of the major centres for global climate monitoring determined with high confidence that 2015 was the warmest year on record, globally.
More informationMalawi. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Malawi C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationGrenada. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationThai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society
Thai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society Three-month Climate Outlook For November 2017 January 2018 Issued on 31 October 2017 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018 Date issued: Oct 26, 2017 1. Overview The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues to develop towards a La Niña state, and is expected to be in at
More informationNOAA 2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA 2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Dr. Gerry Bell Lead Seasonal Forecaster Climate Prediction Center/ NOAA/ NWS Collaboration With National Hurricane Center/ NOAA/ NWS Hurricane Research
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE November 2016
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE November 2016 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in November 2016 1.1 Southwest Monsoon conditions prevailed on most days in October 2016 and the winds were
More informationThe Pennsylvania Observer
The Pennsylvania Observer September 3, 2008 Summer 2008 Weather Summary Written by: Brian Thompson The opening days of June started dry, but a warm front brought a widespread rain a couple of days into
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: NOVEMBER 16, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: NOVEMBER 16, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sales sroot@weatherbank.com OCTOBER 2015 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The
More informationAgricultural Outlook Forum Presented: February 17, 2006 THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE ATLANTIC HURRICANES AND SEASONAL PREDICTIONS
Agricultural Outlook Forum Presented: February 17, 2006 THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE ATLANTIC HURRICANES AND SEASONAL PREDICTIONS Gerald Bell Meteorologist, National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA,
More informationWhy the Atlantic was surprisingly quiet in 2013
1 Why the Atlantic was surprisingly quiet in 2013 by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach Preliminary Draft - March 2014 (Final draft by early June) ABSTRACT This paper discusses the causes of the unusual dearth
More informationZambia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Zambia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE December 2016
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE December 2016 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions in November 2016 1.1 Inter monsoon conditions prevailed in the first half of November 2016. During this
More informationClimate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015 BUSAN, 23 April 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for May - October 2015 (MJJASO) at the APEC Climate Center
More informationNorth Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Last updated: September 2008
North Pacific Climate Overview N. Bond (UW/JISAO), J. Overland (NOAA/PMEL) Contact: Nicholas.Bond@noaa.gov Last updated: September 2008 Summary. The North Pacific atmosphere-ocean system from fall 2007
More informationSummary report for Ruamāhanga Whaitua Committee The climate of the Ruamāhanga catchment
Summary report for Ruamāhanga Whaitua Committee The climate of the Ruamāhanga catchment The Tararua and Rimutaka ranges have a large influence on the climate of the Ruamāhanga catchment. The ranges shelter
More informationCuba. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Cuba C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationMPACT OF EL-NINO ON SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL OF PAKISTAN
MPACT OF EL-NINO ON SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL OF PAKISTAN Abdul Rashid 1 Abstract: El-Nino is the dominant mod of inter- annual climate variability on a planetary scale. Its impact is associated worldwide
More informationAn upper to mid level circulation (Low) in the NW Caribbean is
WEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK BELIZE, CENTRAL AMERICA PERIOD: Monday-Monday, Oct. 1 October 8, 2012 DATE ISSUED: Monday, Oct 1, 2012 6:00 am RFrutos EcoSolutions & Services SYNOPSIS: An upper to mid level circulation
More informationNIWA Outlook: October - December 2015
October December 2015 Issued: 1 October 2015 Hold mouse over links and press ctrl + left click to jump to the information you require: Overview Regional predictions for the next three months: Northland,
More information