Law of Large Numbers
|
|
- Dorothy Barber
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Toss a co tmes. Law of Large Numbers Suppose 0 f f th th toss came up H toss came up T s are Beroull radom varables wth p ½ ad E( ) ½. The proporto of heads s. Itutvely approaches ½ as. week 2
2 Markov s Iequalty If s a o-egatve radom varable wth E() < ad a >0 the, P ( a) E( ) a week 2 2
3 Chebyshev s Iequalty For a radom varable wth E() < ad V() <, for ay a >0 Proof: P ( E( ) a) V a ( ) 2 week 2 3
4 week 2 4 Back to the Law of Large Numbers Iterested sequece of radom varables, 2, 3, such that the radom varables are depedet ad detcally dstrbuted (..d). Let Suppose E( ) μ, V( ) σ 2, the ad Itutvely, as, so ( ) ( ) μ E E E ( ) ( ) V V V 2 2 σ ( ) 0 V ( ) μ E
5 Formally, the Weak Law of Large Numbers (WLLN) states the followg: Suppose, 2, 3, are..d wth E( ) μ <, V( ) σ 2 <, the for ay postve umber a as. Ths s called Covergece Probablty. Proof: ( a) 0 P μ week 2 5
6 Example Flp a co 0,000 tmes. Let f 0 f th th toss came up H toss came up T E( ) ½ ad V( ) ¼. Take a 0.0, the by Chebyshev s Iequalty P ,000 ( ) ( ) Chebyshev Iequalty gves a very weak upper boud. Chebyshev Iequalty works regardless of the dstrbuto of the s. week 2 6
7 Strog Law of Large Number Suppose, 2, 3, are..d wth E( ) μ <, the coverges to μ as wth probablty. That s P lm 2 ( + + L + ) μ Ths s called covergece almost surely. week 2 7
8 Cotuty Theorem for MGFs Let be a radom varable such that for some t 0 > 0 we have m (t) < for t ( t,t 0 0 ). Further, f, 2, s a sequece of radom varables wth () t m < ( ) ( ) ad lm m t m t for all the { } coverges dstrbuto to. t ( t,t 0 0 ) Ths theorem ca also be stated as follows: Let F be a sequece of cdfs wth correspodg mgf m. Let F be a cdf wth mgf m. If m (t) m(t) for all t a ope terval cotag zero, the F (x) F(x) at all cotuty pots of F. Example: Posso dstrbuto ca be approxmated by a Normal dstrbuto for large λ. week 2 8
9 Example to llustrate the Cotuty Theorem Let λ, λ 2, be a creasg sequece wth λ as ad let { } be a sequece of Posso radom varables wth the correspodg parameters. We kow that E( ) λ V( ). ( ) ( ) E λ Let Z the we have that E(Z ) 0, V(Z ). V λ We ca show that the mgf of Z s the mgf of a Stadard Normal radom varable. We say that Z covergece dstrbuto to Z ~ N(0,). week 2 9
10 Example Suppose s Posso(900) radom varable. Fd P( > 950). week 2 0
11 Cetral Lmt Theorem The cetral lmt theorem s cocered wth the lmtg property of sums of radom varables. If, 2, s a sequece of..d radom varables wth mea μ ad varace σ 2 ad, S the by the WLLN we have that μ probablty. The CLT cocered ot just wth the fact of covergece but how S / fluctuates aroud μ. Note that E(S ) μ ad V(S ) σ 2. The stadardzed verso of S s S Z S μ σ ad we have that E(Z ) 0, V(Z ). week 2
12 The Cetral Lmt Theorem Let, 2, be a sequece of..d radom varables wth E( ) μ < ad Var( ) σ 2 <. Suppose the commo dstrbuto fucto F (x) ad the commo momet geeratg fucto m (t) are defed a eghborhood of 0. Let The, S μ lm P σ S x Φ for - < x < where Ф(x) s the cdf for the stadard ormal dstrbuto. Ths s equvalet to sayg that S μ Z coverges dstrbuto to Z ~ N(0,). σ Also, lm P σ μ x Φ ( x).e. μ Z coverges dstrbuto to Z ~ N(0,). σ ( x) week 2 2
13 Example Suppose, 2, are..d radom varables ad each has the Posso(3) dstrbuto. So E( ) V( ) 3. ( ) ( ) The CLT says that P x 3 Φ x as. L week 2 3
14 Examples A very commo applcato of the CLT s the Normal approxmato to the Bomal dstrbuto. Suppose, 2, are..d radom varables ad each has the Beroull(p) dstrbuto. So E( ) p ad V( ) p(-p). ( ( )) ( ) The CLT says that P + + p x p p x as. + Φ L Let Y + + the Y has a Bomal(, p) dstrbuto. So for large, P ( Y y) P Y p p y p Φ y p ( p) p( p) p( p) Suppose we flp a based co 000 tmes ad the probablty of heads o ay oe toss s 0.6. Fd the probablty of gettg at least 550 heads. Suppose we toss a co 00 tmes ad observed 60 heads. Is the co far? week 2 4
Parameter, Statistic and Random Samples
Parameter, Statstc ad Radom Samples A parameter s a umber that descrbes the populato. It s a fxed umber, but practce we do ot kow ts value. A statstc s a fucto of the sample data,.e., t s a quatty whose
More informationX ε ) = 0, or equivalently, lim
Revew for the prevous lecture Cocepts: order statstcs Theorems: Dstrbutos of order statstcs Examples: How to get the dstrbuto of order statstcs Chapter 5 Propertes of a Radom Sample Secto 55 Covergece
More informationChapter 5 Properties of a Random Sample
Lecture 6 o BST 63: Statstcal Theory I Ku Zhag, /0/008 Revew for the prevous lecture Cocepts: t-dstrbuto, F-dstrbuto Theorems: Dstrbutos of sample mea ad sample varace, relatoshp betwee sample mea ad sample
More informationSpecial Instructions / Useful Data
JAM 6 Set of all real umbers P A..d. B, p Posso Specal Istructos / Useful Data x,, :,,, x x Probablty of a evet A Idepedetly ad detcally dstrbuted Bomal dstrbuto wth parameters ad p Posso dstrbuto wth
More informationContinuous Distributions
7//3 Cotuous Dstrbutos Radom Varables of the Cotuous Type Desty Curve Percet Desty fucto, f (x) A smooth curve that ft the dstrbuto 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Test scores Desty Curve Percet Probablty Desty Fucto, f
More informationChapter 8: Statistical Analysis of Simulated Data
Marquette Uversty MSCS600 Chapter 8: Statstcal Aalyss of Smulated Data Dael B. Rowe, Ph.D. Departmet of Mathematcs, Statstcs, ad Computer Scece Copyrght 08 by Marquette Uversty MSCS600 Ageda 8. The Sample
More informationChapter 4 Multiple Random Variables
Revew o BST 63: Statstcal Theory I Ku Zhag, /0/008 Revew for Chapter 4-5 Notes: Although all deftos ad theorems troduced our lectures ad ths ote are mportat ad you should be famlar wth, but I put those
More informationLecture 4 Sep 9, 2015
CS 388R: Radomzed Algorthms Fall 205 Prof. Erc Prce Lecture 4 Sep 9, 205 Scrbe: Xagru Huag & Chad Voegele Overvew I prevous lectures, we troduced some basc probablty, the Cheroff boud, the coupo collector
More informationLecture 02: Bounding tail distributions of a random variable
CSCI-B609: A Theorst s Toolkt, Fall 206 Aug 25 Lecture 02: Boudg tal dstrbutos of a radom varable Lecturer: Yua Zhou Scrbe: Yua Xe & Yua Zhou Let us cosder the ubased co flps aga. I.e. let the outcome
More informationLecture Notes to Rice Chapter 5
ECON 430 Revsed Sept. 06 Lecture Notes to Rce Chapter 5 By H. Goldste. Chapter 5 gves a troducto to probablstc approxmato methods, but s suffcet for the eeds of a adequate study of ecoometrcs. The commo
More informationClass 13,14 June 17, 19, 2015
Class 3,4 Jue 7, 9, 05 Pla for Class3,4:. Samplg dstrbuto of sample mea. The Cetral Lmt Theorem (CLT). Cofdece terval for ukow mea.. Samplg Dstrbuto for Sample mea. Methods used are based o CLT ( Cetral
More informationSimulation Output Analysis
Smulato Output Aalyss Summary Examples Parameter Estmato Sample Mea ad Varace Pot ad Iterval Estmato ermatg ad o-ermatg Smulato Mea Square Errors Example: Sgle Server Queueg System x(t) S 4 S 4 S 3 S 5
More information,m = 1,...,n; 2 ; p m (1 p) n m,m = 0,...,n; E[X] = np; n! e λ,n 0; E[X] = λ.
CS70: Lecture 21. Revew: Dstrbutos Revew: Idepedece Varace; Iequaltes; WLLN 1. Revew: Dstrbutos 2. Revew: Idepedece 3. Varace 4. Iequaltes Markov Chebyshev 5. Weak Law of Large Numbers U[1,...,] : Pr[X
More informationUNIVERSITY OF OSLO DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
UNIVERSITY OF OSLO DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Exam: ECON430 Statstcs Date of exam: Frday, December 8, 07 Grades are gve: Jauary 4, 08 Tme for exam: 0900 am 00 oo The problem set covers 5 pages Resources allowed:
More informationSummary of the lecture in Biostatistics
Summary of the lecture Bostatstcs Probablty Desty Fucto For a cotuos radom varable, a probablty desty fucto s a fucto such that: 0 dx a b) b a dx A probablty desty fucto provdes a smple descrpto of the
More informationTHE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY HIGHER CERTIFICATE
THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY 00 EXAMINATIONS SOLUTIONS HIGHER CERTIFICATE PAPER I STATISTICAL THEORY The Socety provdes these solutos to assst caddates preparg for the examatos future years ad for the
More informationLecture 3. Sampling, sampling distributions, and parameter estimation
Lecture 3 Samplg, samplg dstrbutos, ad parameter estmato Samplg Defto Populato s defed as the collecto of all the possble observatos of terest. The collecto of observatos we take from the populato s called
More informationParameter, Statistic and Random Samples
Parameter, Statistic ad Radom Samples A parameter is a umber that describes the populatio. It is a fixed umber, but i practice we do ot kow its value. A statistic is a fuctio of the sample data, i.e.,
More informationMean is only appropriate for interval or ratio scales, not ordinal or nominal.
Mea Same as ordary average Sum all the data values ad dvde by the sample sze. x = ( x + x +... + x Usg summato otato, we wrte ths as x = x = x = = ) x Mea s oly approprate for terval or rato scales, ot
More informationRandom Variables and Probability Distributions
Radom Varables ad Probablty Dstrbutos * If X : S R s a dscrete radom varable wth rage {x, x, x 3,. } the r = P (X = xr ) = * Let X : S R be a dscrete radom varable wth rage {x, x, x 3,.}.If x r P(X = x
More informationhp calculators HP 30S Statistics Averages and Standard Deviations Average and Standard Deviation Practice Finding Averages and Standard Deviations
HP 30S Statstcs Averages ad Stadard Devatos Average ad Stadard Devato Practce Fdg Averages ad Stadard Devatos HP 30S Statstcs Averages ad Stadard Devatos Average ad stadard devato The HP 30S provdes several
More informationTHE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY GRADUATE DIPLOMA
THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY 3 EXAMINATIONS SOLUTIONS GRADUATE DIPLOMA PAPER I STATISTICAL THEORY & METHODS The Socety provdes these solutos to assst caddates preparg for the examatos future years ad
More informationUNIVERSITY OF OSLO DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
UNIVERSITY OF OSLO DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Postpoed exam: ECON430 Statstcs Date of exam: Jauary 0, 0 Tme for exam: 09:00 a.m. :00 oo The problem set covers 5 pages Resources allowed: All wrtte ad prted
More informationDiscrete Mathematics and Probability Theory Fall 2016 Seshia and Walrand DIS 10b
CS 70 Dscrete Mathematcs ad Probablty Theory Fall 206 Sesha ad Walrad DIS 0b. Wll I Get My Package? Seaky delvery guy of some compay s out delverg packages to customers. Not oly does he had a radom package
More informationLecture 7. Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests in the Simple CLR Model
Lecture 7. Cofdece Itervals ad Hypothess Tests the Smple CLR Model I lecture 6 we troduced the Classcal Lear Regresso (CLR) model that s the radom expermet of whch the data Y,,, K, are the outcomes. The
More informationThe Occupancy and Coupon Collector problems
Chapter 4 The Occupacy ad Coupo Collector problems By Sarel Har-Peled, Jauary 9, 08 4 Prelmares [ Defto 4 Varace ad Stadard Devato For a radom varable X, let V E [ X [ µ X deote the varace of X, where
More informationChapter 4 Multiple Random Variables
Revew for the prevous lecture: Theorems ad Examples: How to obta the pmf (pdf) of U = g (, Y) ad V = g (, Y) Chapter 4 Multple Radom Varables Chapter 44 Herarchcal Models ad Mxture Dstrbutos Examples:
More informationIFYMB002 Mathematics Business Appendix C Formula Booklet
Iteratoal Foudato Year (IFY IFYMB00 Mathematcs Busess Apped C Formula Booklet Related Documet: IFY Mathematcs Busess Syllabus 07/8 IFYMB00 Maths Busess Apped C Formula Booklet Cotets lease ote that the
More information( ) = ( ) ( ) Chapter 13 Asymptotic Theory and Stochastic Regressors. Stochastic regressors model
Chapter 3 Asmptotc Theor ad Stochastc Regressors The ature of eplaator varable s assumed to be o-stochastc or fed repeated samples a regresso aalss Such a assumpto s approprate for those epermets whch
More informationEconometric Methods. Review of Estimation
Ecoometrc Methods Revew of Estmato Estmatg the populato mea Radom samplg Pot ad terval estmators Lear estmators Ubased estmators Lear Ubased Estmators (LUEs) Effcecy (mmum varace) ad Best Lear Ubased Estmators
More informationPoint Estimation: definition of estimators
Pot Estmato: defto of estmators Pot estmator: ay fucto W (X,..., X ) of a data sample. The exercse of pot estmato s to use partcular fuctos of the data order to estmate certa ukow populato parameters.
More informationRandom Variables. ECE 313 Probability with Engineering Applications Lecture 8 Professor Ravi K. Iyer University of Illinois
Radom Varables ECE 313 Probablty wth Egeerg Alcatos Lecture 8 Professor Rav K. Iyer Uversty of Illos Iyer - Lecture 8 ECE 313 Fall 013 Today s Tocs Revew o Radom Varables Cumulatve Dstrbuto Fucto (CDF
More informationρ < 1 be five real numbers. The
Lecture o BST 63: Statstcal Theory I Ku Zhag, /0/006 Revew for the prevous lecture Deftos: covarace, correlato Examples: How to calculate covarace ad correlato Theorems: propertes of correlato ad covarace
More informationThe expected value of a sum of random variables,, is the sum of the expected values:
Sums of Radom Varables xpected Values ad Varaces of Sums ad Averages of Radom Varables The expected value of a sum of radom varables, say S, s the sum of the expected values: ( ) ( ) S Ths s always true
More informationENGI 4421 Joint Probability Distributions Page Joint Probability Distributions [Navidi sections 2.5 and 2.6; Devore sections
ENGI 441 Jot Probablty Dstrbutos Page 7-01 Jot Probablty Dstrbutos [Navd sectos.5 ad.6; Devore sectos 5.1-5.] The jot probablty mass fucto of two dscrete radom quattes, s, P ad p x y x y The margal probablty
More informationUncertainty, Data, and Judgment
Ucertaty, Data, ad Judgmet Sesso 06 Structure of the Course Topc Sesso Probablty -5 Estmato 6-8 Hypothess Testg 9-10 Regresso 11-16 1 Mcrosoft AND Itel (50-50) You vest $,500 MSFT ad $,500 INTC X = Aual
More informationExtreme Value Theory: An Introduction
(correcto d Extreme Value Theory: A Itroducto by Laures de Haa ad Aa Ferrera Wth ths webpage the authors ted to form the readers of errors or mstakes foud the book after publcato. We also gve extesos for
More information22 Nonparametric Methods.
22 oparametrc Methods. I parametrc models oe assumes apror that the dstrbutos have a specfc form wth oe or more ukow parameters ad oe tres to fd the best or atleast reasoably effcet procedures that aswer
More informationLecture Notes Types of economic variables
Lecture Notes 3 1. Types of ecoomc varables () Cotuous varable takes o a cotuum the sample space, such as all pots o a le or all real umbers Example: GDP, Polluto cocetrato, etc. () Dscrete varables fte
More informationFunctions of Random Variables
Fuctos of Radom Varables Chapter Fve Fuctos of Radom Varables 5. Itroducto A geeral egeerg aalyss model s show Fg. 5.. The model output (respose) cotas the performaces of a system or product, such as weght,
More informationSTATISTICAL INFERENCE
(STATISTICS) STATISTICAL INFERENCE COMPLEMENTARY COURSE B.Sc. MATHEMATICS III SEMESTER ( Admsso) UNIVERSITY OF CALICUT SCHOOL OF DISTANCE EDUCATION CALICUT UNIVERSITY P.O., MALAPPURAM, KERALA, INDIA -
More informationPart I: Background on the Binomial Distribution
Part I: Bacgroud o the Bomal Dstrbuto A radom varable s sad to have a Beroull dstrbuto f t taes o the value wth probablt "p" ad the value wth probablt " - p". The umber of "successes" "" depedet Beroull
More informationBIOREPS Problem Set #11 The Evolution of DNA Strands
BIOREPS Problem Set #11 The Evoluto of DNA Strads 1 Backgroud I the md 2000s, evolutoary bologsts studyg DNA mutato rates brds ad prmates dscovered somethg surprsg. There were a large umber of mutatos
More informationTHE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY 2016 EXAMINATIONS SOLUTIONS HIGHER CERTIFICATE MODULE 5
THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY 06 EAMINATIONS SOLUTIONS HIGHER CERTIFICATE MODULE 5 The Socety s provdg these solutos to assst cadtes preparg for the examatos 07. The solutos are teded as learg ads ad should
More informationComplete Convergence and Some Maximal Inequalities for Weighted Sums of Random Variables
Joural of Sceces, Islamc Republc of Ira 8(4): -6 (007) Uversty of Tehra, ISSN 06-04 http://sceces.ut.ac.r Complete Covergece ad Some Maxmal Iequaltes for Weghted Sums of Radom Varables M. Am,,* H.R. Nl
More informationHomework 1: Solutions Sid Banerjee Problem 1: (Practice with Asymptotic Notation) ORIE 4520: Stochastics at Scale Fall 2015
Fall 05 Homework : Solutos Problem : (Practce wth Asymptotc Notato) A essetal requremet for uderstadg scalg behavor s comfort wth asymptotc (or bg-o ) otato. I ths problem, you wll prove some basc facts
More informationThis section is optional.
4 Momet Geeratig Fuctios* This sectio is optioal. The momet geeratig fuctio g : R R of a radom variable X is defied as g(t) = E[e tx ]. Propositio 1. We have g () (0) = E[X ] for = 1, 2,... Proof. Therefore
More information1 Solution to Problem 6.40
1 Soluto to Problem 6.40 (a We wll wrte T τ (X 1,...,X where the X s are..d. wth PDF f(x µ, σ 1 ( x µ σ g, σ where the locato parameter µ s ay real umber ad the scale parameter σ s > 0. Lettg Z X µ σ we
More informationChapter 3 Sampling For Proportions and Percentages
Chapter 3 Samplg For Proportos ad Percetages I may stuatos, the characterstc uder study o whch the observatos are collected are qualtatve ature For example, the resposes of customers may marketg surveys
More informationModule 7: Probability and Statistics
Lecture 4: Goodess of ft tests. Itroducto Module 7: Probablty ad Statstcs I the prevous two lectures, the cocepts, steps ad applcatos of Hypotheses testg were dscussed. Hypotheses testg may be used to
More informationRandom Variate Generation ENM 307 SIMULATION. Anadolu Üniversitesi, Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü. Yrd. Doç. Dr. Gürkan ÖZTÜRK.
adom Varate Geerato ENM 307 SIMULATION Aadolu Üverstes, Edüstr Mühedslğ Bölümü Yrd. Doç. Dr. Gürka ÖZTÜK 0 adom Varate Geerato adom varate geerato s about procedures for samplg from a varety of wdely-used
More informationLECTURE 8: ASYMPTOTICS I
LECTURE 8: ASYMPTOTICS I We are iterested i the properties of estimators as. Cosider a sequece of radom variables {, X 1}. N. M. Kiefer, Corell Uiversity, Ecoomics 60 1 Defiitio: (Weak covergece) A sequece
More informationApplication of Generating Functions to the Theory of Success Runs
Aled Mathematcal Sceces, Vol. 10, 2016, o. 50, 2491-2495 HIKARI Ltd, www.m-hkar.com htt://dx.do.org/10.12988/ams.2016.66197 Alcato of Geeratg Fuctos to the Theory of Success Rus B.M. Bekker, O.A. Ivaov
More informationM2S1 - EXERCISES 8: SOLUTIONS
MS - EXERCISES 8: SOLUTIONS. As X,..., X P ossoλ, a gve that T ˉX, the usg elemetary propertes of expectatos, we have E ft [T E fx [X λ λ, so that T s a ubase estmator of λ. T X X X Furthermore X X X From
More informationDr. Shalabh. Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur
Aalyss of Varace ad Desg of Expermets-I MODULE -I LECTURE - SOME RESULTS ON LINEAR ALGEBRA, MATRIX THEORY AND DISTRIBUTIONS Dr. Shalabh Departmet t of Mathematcs t ad Statstcs t t Ida Isttute of Techology
More informationModule 7. Lecture 7: Statistical parameter estimation
Lecture 7: Statstcal parameter estmato Parameter Estmato Methods of Parameter Estmato 1) Method of Matchg Pots ) Method of Momets 3) Mamum Lkelhood method Populato Parameter Sample Parameter Ubased estmato
More informationResearch Article A New Iterative Method for Common Fixed Points of a Finite Family of Nonexpansive Mappings
Hdaw Publshg Corporato Iteratoal Joural of Mathematcs ad Mathematcal Sceces Volume 009, Artcle ID 391839, 9 pages do:10.1155/009/391839 Research Artcle A New Iteratve Method for Commo Fxed Pots of a Fte
More informationIntroduction to Probability
Itroducto to Probablty Nader H Bshouty Departmet of Computer Scece Techo 32000 Israel e-mal: bshouty@cstechoacl 1 Combatorcs 11 Smple Rules I Combatorcs The rule of sum says that the umber of ways to choose
More informationSection 2 Notes. Elizabeth Stone and Charles Wang. January 15, Expectation and Conditional Expectation of a Random Variable.
Secto Notes Elzabeth Stoe ad Charles Wag Jauar 5, 9 Jot, Margal, ad Codtoal Probablt Useful Rules/Propertes. P ( x) P P ( x; ) or R f (x; ) d. P ( xj ) P (x; ) P ( ) 3. P ( x; ) P ( xj ) P ( ) 4. Baes
More informationBayes (Naïve or not) Classifiers: Generative Approach
Logstc regresso Bayes (Naïve or ot) Classfers: Geeratve Approach What do we mea by Geeratve approach: Lear p(y), p(x y) ad the apply bayes rule to compute p(y x) for makg predctos Ths s essetally makg
More informationbest estimate (mean) for X uncertainty or error in the measurement (systematic, random or statistical) best
Error Aalyss Preamble Wheever a measuremet s made, the result followg from that measuremet s always subject to ucertaty The ucertaty ca be reduced by makg several measuremets of the same quatty or by mprovg
More information5 Short Proofs of Simplified Stirling s Approximation
5 Short Proofs of Smplfed Strlg s Approxmato Ofr Gorodetsky, drtymaths.wordpress.com Jue, 20 0 Itroducto Strlg s approxmato s the followg (somewhat surprsg) approxmato of the factoral,, usg elemetary fuctos:
More informationNotes on Censored EL, and Harzard
Notes o Cesored EL, ad Harzard Ma Zhou I survval aalyss, the statstcs volvg the hazard fuctos are usually easer to hadle mathematcally the those volvg the dstrbutos. For example, t s easer to show the
More informationChain Rules for Entropy
Cha Rules for Etroy The etroy of a collecto of radom varables s the sum of codtoal etroes. Theorem: Let be radom varables havg the mass robablty x x.x. The...... The roof s obtaed by reeatg the alcato
More informationConstruction and Evaluation of Actuarial Models. Rajapaksha Premarathna
Costructo ad Evaluato of Actuaral Models Raapaksha Premaratha Table of Cotets Modelg Some deftos ad Notatos...4 Case : Polcy Lmtu...4 Case : Wth a Ordary deductble....5 Case 3: Maxmum Covered loss u wth
More information( ) ( ) ( ) f ( ) ( )
Idepedet Mote Carlo Iterested Approxmate E X = x dν x = µ µ wth = = x where x, x s sampled rom the probablty, measure ν ( X ). Uder certa regularty codtos, I x,, x x E X = are a d sample rom ν ( X ) x
More informationOrdinary Least Squares Regression. Simple Regression. Algebra and Assumptions.
Ordary Least Squares egresso. Smple egresso. Algebra ad Assumptos. I ths part of the course we are gog to study a techque for aalysg the lear relatoshp betwee two varables Y ad X. We have pars of observatos
More informationA Study of the Reproducibility of Measurements with HUR Leg Extension/Curl Research Line
HUR Techcal Report 000--9 verso.05 / Frak Borg (borgbros@ett.f) A Study of the Reproducblty of Measuremets wth HUR Leg Eteso/Curl Research Le A mportat property of measuremets s that the results should
More informationTESTS BASED ON MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD
ESE 5 Toy E. Smth. The Basc Example. TESTS BASED ON MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD To llustrate the propertes of maxmum lkelhood estmates ad tests, we cosder the smplest possble case of estmatg the mea of the ormal
More informationPART ONE. Solutions to Exercises
PART ONE Soutos to Exercses Chapter Revew of Probabty Soutos to Exercses 1. (a) Probabty dstrbuto fucto for Outcome (umber of heads) 0 1 probabty 0.5 0.50 0.5 Cumuatve probabty dstrbuto fucto for Outcome
More information= 2. Statistic - function that doesn't depend on any of the known parameters; examples:
of Samplg Theory amples - uemploymet househol cosumpto survey Raom sample - set of rv's... ; 's have ot strbuto [ ] f f s vector of parameters e.g. Statstc - fucto that oes't epe o ay of the ow parameters;
More informationQualifying Exam Statistical Theory Problem Solutions August 2005
Qualfyg Exam Statstcal Theory Problem Solutos August 5. Let X, X,..., X be d uform U(,),
More informationSTK4011 and STK9011 Autumn 2016
STK4 ad STK9 Autum 6 Pot estmato Covers (most of the followg materal from chapter 7: Secto 7.: pages 3-3 Secto 7..: pages 3-33 Secto 7..: pages 35-3 Secto 7..3: pages 34-35 Secto 7.3.: pages 33-33 Secto
More informationSDS 321: Introduction to Probability and Statistics
SDS 321: Itroductio to Probability ad Statistics Lecture 23: Cotiuous radom variables- Iequalities, CLT Puramrita Sarkar Departmet of Statistics ad Data Sciece The Uiversity of Texas at Austi www.cs.cmu.edu/
More informationResearch Article Some Strong Limit Theorems for Weighted Product Sums of ρ-mixing Sequences of Random Variables
Hdaw Publshg Corporato Joural of Iequaltes ad Applcatos Volume 2009, Artcle ID 174768, 10 pages do:10.1155/2009/174768 Research Artcle Some Strog Lmt Theorems for Weghted Product Sums of ρ-mxg Sequeces
More informationLecture 9. Some Useful Discrete Distributions. Some Useful Discrete Distributions. The observations generated by different experiments have
NM 7 Lecture 9 Some Useful Dscrete Dstrbutos Some Useful Dscrete Dstrbutos The observatos geerated by dfferet eermets have the same geeral tye of behavor. Cosequetly, radom varables assocated wth these
More informationSTK3100 and STK4100 Autumn 2017
SK3 ad SK4 Autum 7 Geeralzed lear models Part III Covers the followg materal from chaters 4 ad 5: Sectos 4..5, 4.3.5, 4.3.6, 4.4., 4.4., ad 4.4.3 Sectos 5.., 5.., ad 5.5. Ørulf Borga Deartmet of Mathematcs
More informationProblem Solutions for BST 695: Special Topics in Statistical Theory, Kui Zhang, Solutions from Previous Homework
Problem Solutos for BST 695: Specal Topcs Statstcal Theory, Ku Zhag, 0 Solutos from Prevous Homework Problem Solutos for BST 695: Specal Topcs Statstcal Theory, Ku Zhag, 0 000, Problem Page, Problem ()
More informationD KL (P Q) := p i ln p i q i
Cheroff-Bouds 1 The Geeral Boud Let P 1,, m ) ad Q q 1,, q m ) be two dstrbutos o m elemets, e,, q 0, for 1,, m, ad m 1 m 1 q 1 The Kullback-Lebler dvergece or relatve etroy of P ad Q s defed as m D KL
More informationFractional Brownian motion, random walks and binary market models
Face Stochast. 5, 343 355 (21) c Sprger-Verlag 21 Fractoal Browa moto, radom walks ad bary market models Tomm Sotte Departmet of Mathematcs, Uversty of Helsk, P.O. Box 4, 14 Helsk, Flad (e-mal: tomm.sotte@helsk.f)
More informationMarcinkiewicz strong laws for linear statistics of ρ -mixing sequences of random variables
Aas da Academa Braslera de Cêcas 2006 784: 65-62 Aals of the Brazla Academy of Sceces ISSN 000-3765 www.scelo.br/aabc Marckewcz strog laws for lear statstcs of ρ -mxg sequeces of radom varables GUANG-HUI
More information7. Joint Distributions
7. Jot Dstrbutos Chrs Pech ad Mehra Saham Ma 2017 Ofte ou wll work o problems where there are several radom varables (ofte teractg wth oe aother. We are gog to start to formall look at how those teractos
More informationDistribution of Random Samples & Limit theorems
STAT/MATH 395 A - PROBABILITY II UW Witer Quarter 2017 Néhémy Lim Distributio of Radom Samples & Limit theorems 1 Distributio of i.i.d. Samples Motivatig example. Assume that the goal of a study is to
More informationX X X E[ ] E X E X. is the ()m n where the ( i,)th. j element is the mean of the ( i,)th., then
Secto 5 Vectors of Radom Varables Whe workg wth several radom varables,,..., to arrage them vector form x, t s ofte coveet We ca the make use of matrx algebra to help us orgaze ad mapulate large umbers
More informationECE 330:541, Stochastic Signals and Systems Lecture Notes on Limit Theorems from Probability Fall 2002
ECE 330:541, Stochastic Sigals ad Systems Lecture Notes o Limit Theorems from robability Fall 00 I practice, there are two ways we ca costruct a ew sequece of radom variables from a old sequece of radom
More informationEconometrics. 3) Statistical properties of the OLS estimator
30C0000 Ecoometrcs 3) Statstcal propertes of the OLS estmator Tmo Kuosmae Professor, Ph.D. http://omepre.et/dex.php/tmokuosmae Today s topcs Whch assumptos are eeded for OLS to work? Statstcal propertes
More informationMathematics HL and Further mathematics HL Formula booklet
Dploma Programme Mathematcs HL ad Further mathematcs HL Formula booklet For use durg the course ad the eamatos Frst eamatos 04 Mathematcal Iteratoal Baccalaureate studes SL: Formula Orgazato booklet 0
More informationMu Sequences/Series Solutions National Convention 2014
Mu Sequeces/Seres Solutos Natoal Coveto 04 C 6 E A 6C A 6 B B 7 A D 7 D C 7 A B 8 A B 8 A C 8 E 4 B 9 B 4 E 9 B 4 C 9 E C 0 A A 0 D B 0 C C Usg basc propertes of arthmetc sequeces, we fd a ad bm m We eed
More information9 U-STATISTICS. Eh =(m!) 1 Eh(X (1),..., X (m ) ) i.i.d
9 U-STATISTICS Suppose,,..., are P P..d. wth CDF F. Our goal s to estmate the expectato t (P)=Eh(,,..., m ). Note that ths expectato requres more tha oe cotrast to E, E, or Eh( ). Oe example s E or P((,
More informationChapter 14 Logistic Regression Models
Chapter 4 Logstc Regresso Models I the lear regresso model X β + ε, there are two types of varables explaatory varables X, X,, X k ad study varable y These varables ca be measured o a cotuous scale as
More informationLecture 9: Tolerant Testing
Lecture 9: Tolerat Testg Dael Kae Scrbe: Sakeerth Rao Aprl 4, 07 Abstract I ths lecture we prove a quas lear lower boud o the umber of samples eeded to do tolerat testg for L dstace. Tolerat Testg We have
More information{ }{ ( )} (, ) = ( ) ( ) ( ) Chapter 14 Exercises in Sampling Theory. Exercise 1 (Simple random sampling): Solution:
Chapter 4 Exercses Samplg Theory Exercse (Smple radom samplg: Let there be two correlated radom varables X ad A sample of sze s draw from a populato by smple radom samplg wthout replacemet The observed
More informationThird handout: On the Gini Index
Thrd hadout: O the dex Corrado, a tala statstca, proposed (, 9, 96) to measure absolute equalt va the mea dfferece whch s defed as ( / ) where refers to the total umber of dvduals socet. Assume that. The
More informationCHAPTER 3 POSTERIOR DISTRIBUTIONS
CHAPTER 3 POSTERIOR DISTRIBUTIONS If scece caot measure the degree of probablt volved, so much the worse for scece. The practcal ma wll stck to hs apprecatve methods utl t does, or wll accept the results
More informationGOALS The Samples Why Sample the Population? What is a Probability Sample? Four Most Commonly Used Probability Sampling Methods
GOLS. Epla why a sample s the oly feasble way to lear about a populato.. Descrbe methods to select a sample. 3. Defe ad costruct a samplg dstrbuto of the sample mea. 4. Epla the cetral lmt theorem. 5.
More informationComplete Convergence for Weighted Sums of Arrays of Rowwise Asymptotically Almost Negative Associated Random Variables
A^VÇÚO 1 32 ò 1 5 Ï 2016 c 10 Chese Joural of Appled Probablty ad Statstcs Oct., 2016, Vol. 32, No. 5, pp. 489-498 do: 10.3969/j.ss.1001-4268.2016.05.005 Complete Covergece for Weghted Sums of Arrays of
More informationProbability 2 - Notes 10. Lemma. If X is a random variable and g(x) 0 for all x in the support of f X, then P(g(X) 1) E[g(X)].
Probability 2 - Notes 0 Some Useful Iequalities. Lemma. If X is a radom variable ad g(x 0 for all x i the support of f X, the P(g(X E[g(X]. Proof. (cotiuous case P(g(X Corollaries x:g(x f X (xdx x:g(x
More informationChapter 8. Inferences about More Than Two Population Central Values
Chapter 8. Ifereces about More Tha Two Populato Cetral Values Case tudy: Effect of Tmg of the Treatmet of Port-We tas wth Lasers ) To vestgate whether treatmet at a youg age would yeld better results tha
More informationLinear Regression. Hsiao-Lung Chan Dept Electrical Engineering Chang Gung University, Taiwan
Lear Regresso Hsao-Lug Cha Dept Electrcal Egeerg Chag Gug Uverst, Tawa chahl@mal.cgu.edu.tw Curve fttg Least-squares regresso Data ehbt a sgfcat degree of error or scatter A curve for the tred of the data
More informationIntroduction to local (nonparametric) density estimation. methods
Itroducto to local (oparametrc) desty estmato methods A slecture by Yu Lu for ECE 66 Sprg 014 1. Itroducto Ths slecture troduces two local desty estmato methods whch are Parze desty estmato ad k-earest
More information