The role of land-sea contrast in the circulation response to seasonal insolation and global warming
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1 The role of land-sea contrast in the circulation response to seasonal insolation and global warming Tiffany A. Shaw Columbia University University of Chicago Thanks to A. Voigt, I Simpson, R. Seager
2 What are the dynamical implications of thermal contrasts? What is the role of Asian land-sea contrasts in the seasonal circulation evolution? Why is the summertime circulation response to increased CO 2 not robust?
3 Dynamical Implications of thermal contrasts 1) Sea surface temperature gradients drive low-level flow (Lindzen & Nigam 1987) u gh s = 1 k r(ts ) 2 sin 2 See also Emanuel et al. (1994), Pauluis (24), Prive and Plumb (27)
4 Dynamical Implications of thermal contrasts 1) Sea surface temperature gradients drive low-level flow (Lindzen & Nigam 1987) u gh s = 1 k r(ts ) 2 sin 2 2) Moist entropy (s b = c p ln θ e* ) gradients drive flow when moist entropy is supercritical (Emanuel 1995) u s = (T s T t ) 2 sin k r(s b s bcrit ) Positive north-south thermal gradients imply eastward flow See also Emanuel et al. (1994), Pauluis (24), Prive and Plumb (27)
5 Dynamical Implications of thermal contrasts Thermally driven flow + friction = convergence s = r u s s Convergence due to energy input and gross moist stability (Neelin & Held 1987): = F net / m z Nie et al. (21)
6 Convergence drives global circulation: Monsoon-Desert relationship < H > L z s > Desert L s < Monsoon H Ocean Sverdrup balance v = f See Gill (198), Sardeskmuhk & Hoskins (1988), Wang & Ting (1999), Rodwell & Hoskins (21)
7 Thermodynamic & Dynamic Links Thermal contrast T or s b Rossby wave rotational flow, QG moisture & momentum transport (ITCZ, jet stream) Low-level convergence, Upper level divergence Poleward extent of Asian & N. American monsoons set by dynamical factors (Chou & Neelin 23)
8 July May 8 925hPa Land Cyclone Opposite pattern s b > u s > Oceanic Anticyclones Dynamical moisture transport dominates e6 1e6 1 Data source: ERA-Interim
9 September - August 8 925hPa 1e Land Anticyclone Oceanic s b < u s < Opposite pattern aloft 1e6 Data source: ERA-Interim
10 See Shaw (214), Shaw & Voigt (215) Aquaplanet model simulations of the summertime circulation MPI-ESM model Fixed sea surface temperature (SST) Background SST follows Neale & Hoskins (21) Add SST perturbation to mimic land-ocean asymmetries Sea surface temperature SST Perturbation Asia Pacific N. America Atlantic Asia Pacific N. America Atlantic
11 Test hypothesis that Asian land-sea contrasts influence Pacific and Atlantic circulations Starting from a zonally-asymmetric aquaplanet control state: - Mimic increased solar insolation by warming Asia relative to control (A2-A1) - Mimic decreased solar insolation by cooling Asia (A4-A3) Asian SST amplitude A1 A2 A3 A4
12 Response to Asian warming 8 925hPa 1e6 6 Westward shift 4 2 s b > u s > Similar to July - May e6
13 Response to Asian warming 8 925hPa 1e6 6 Westward shift 4 2 s b > Increased Asian thermal s b > u s > s < > Increased Asian Similar to July - May convergence Amplified cycloneanticyclone, poleward jet shift 1e6
14 Response to Asian warming 8 925hPa 1e Warmer Westward shift Asian Monsoon evolution suppresses N. American Monsoon (see Rodwell & Hoskins s b > u s > Similar to July - May e6
15 Response to Asian cooling 8 925hPa 1e s b < u s < Similar to September - August e6
16 Opposite responses to seasonal solar insolation July - May - Δs b maximum over Asia September - August - Δs b minimum over Asia s b > s b < - Convergence toward land - Strengthened monsoon cyclone oceanic anticyclone circulation - Poleward jet shift - Divergence from land - Weakened monsoon cyclone oceanic anticyclone circulation - Equatorward jet shift
17 Response to CO 2 increase: Thermal contrasts around Asia If land warms (fast adjustment) - Δs b maximum over land s b > - Convergence toward land - Strengthened monsoon cyclone oceanic anticyclone circulation - Poleward jet shift
18 Response to CO 2 increase: Thermal contrasts around Asia If land warms (fast adjustment) - Δs b maximum over land s b > - Convergence toward land - Strengthened monsoon cyclone oceanic anticyclone circulation - Poleward jet shift If ocean warms - Δs b maximum over ocean s b < - Divergence from land - Weakened monsoon cyclone oceanic anticyclone circulation - Equatorward jet shift Modern analogs: July May versus September August Except CO 2 is well mixed è competition
19 Idealized climate change with aquaplanet & CMIP5 models SST Perturbation Asia Pacific N. America Atlantic Asia Pacific N. America Atlantic Increased solar insolation (warm Asia) - Decreased solar insolation (cool Asia) - Land warming response to CO 2 increase (warm Asia) - Ocean warming response to CO 2 increase (warm outside black land boxes) - Global warming (warm everywhere)
20 8 Response to Asian warming 1e6 8 Response to Asian cooling 1e Stronger monsoon-anticyclone circulation, Poleward jet shift 2 1e hPa Weaker monsoon-anticyclone circulation, Equatorward jet shift 1e6
21 8 Response to Asian warming 1e6 8 Response to Asian cooling 1e Stronger monsoon-anticyclone circulation, Poleward jet shift 2 1e hPa Weaker monsoon-anticyclone circulation, Equatorward jet shift 1e6 Response to ocean warming e6 1e6 Similar circulation responses consistent s b <
22 8 Response to Asian warming 1e6 8 Response to Asian cooling 1e Stronger monsoon-anticyclone circulation, Poleward jet shift 2 1e hPa Weaker monsoon-anticyclone circulation, Equatorward jet shift 1e6 Response to ocean warming 8 1e6 Response to global θ e warming 8 1e e6 Similar response to 4xCO e6 Shaw & Voigt (215)
23 Non robust Asia-Pacific circulation response to increased CO 2 8 Color = RCP8.5 (28-299) historical ( ) 925hPa JJA 4e6 6 2e6 4 2 Non robust circulation response 2e6 Stippling = > 8% model agreement e6 Data source: CMIP5 models
24 Tug of war between radiative forcing and SST warming in CMIP5 models Increased CO2 fixed SSTs (AMIP4xCO2) 8 4e6 6 2e hPa JJA Modern analog: July-May e6 4e6
25 Tug of war between radiative forcing and SST warming in CMIP5 models Increased CO2 fixed SSTs (AMIP4xCO2) 8 6 4e6 2e hPa JJA 2 Increased SSTs fixed CO2 (AMIP4K) 8 Modern analog: July-May e6 4e6 4e6 2e e6 Shaw & Voigt (215) 2 Modern analog: Sept. Aug e6
26 Tug of war between radiative forcing and SST warming in CMIP5 models Sum of response to radiative forcing and SST warming 8 4e e6 2e6 925hPa JJA Fully-coupled model response 4e See decomposition of recent trends (Deser & Phillips 29) and future response of tropical precipitation (Bony et al. 213) 4 2 4e6 Non robust circulation response e6 2e6 4e6
27 Tug of war on the Pacific jet stream jet lat. Pacific 7hPa SST warming Radiative forcing Poleward shift Equatorward shift RCP85 AMIP4K AMIPFuture AMIP4xCO2 Shaw & Voigt (215)
28 Summary What are the dynamical implications of land-sea moist entropy contrasts? Land-sea moist entropy contrasts drive rotational flow and convergence in the presence of friction What is the role of Asian land-sea thermal contrasts in the seasonal circulation evolution? Asian land-sea moist entropy contrasts control the seasonal cycle of circulation globally (see Rodwell & Hoskins 21) Why is the Asia-Pacific summertime circulation response to climate change not robust? Tug of war on circulation between radiative forcing and sea surface warming due to opposite land-sea moist entropy contrast, analogous to seasonal evolution
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