Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Mitch Moncrieff (NCAR) & Duane Waliser (JPL) Co-Chairs, YOTC Science Planning Group

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1 WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 7th Scientific Steering Committee of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and Joint Meeting with THORPEX ICSC 12 WMO Geneva, Switzerland (18-20 November 2014) CAS/WWRP/SSC7/DOC1.3 Item: 1.2 Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Mitch Moncrieff (NCAR) & Duane Waliser (JPL) Co-Chairs, YOTC Science Planning Group 1. Background Coordinated jointly by WWRP-THORPEX & WCRP, and involving institutions, research groups and individuals world-wide, the YOTC project addresses the weather-climate intersection (subseasonal timescales). The science is focused on the organization of tropical convection and its multiscale interaction. Embedded in the objectives is how insights from high-resolution global weather models, cloud-system resolving models, and theoretical insights can accelerate the development of the next-generation of global models. The YOTC project consists of three major components: a high-resolution global numerical weather prediction database or virtual global field campaign, multi-sensor satellite databases, and collaborative research. 2. Summary of Accomplishments The YOTC-ECMWF database consists of a complete global analysis, 10-day forecasts, and over 30 subgrid tendencies from the ECMWF IFS on a 25km computational mesh for the 2- year period May April The Year features El Nino, La Nina, and Arctic Oscillation conditions. The YOTC website has the YOTC Science Plan, YOTC Implementation Plan; links to data, documents, and meeting reports; and access to archived presentations. The YOTC-Giovanni satellite data analysis and dissemination system is available at this website, and the A-Train multisensor datasets at NOAA and NASA global model data are available and their websites. All data are freely available to the international community subject only to acknowledgement when used for publication purposes. YOTC science sessions have been convened at international meetings, e.g., spring AGU'09, AGU Meeting of the Americas 10, and fall AGU'08, AMS'09, AGU'10, AGU 11, AGU 12, AGU 13, and AGU 14, Over 100 formal presentations on YOTC include 3 rd THORPEX Science Symposium; 13 th Session of the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM); 2009 VAMOS Science Team meeting; 2010 North American THORPEX Workshop; 2010 MJO Task Force Workshop in Busan, Korea; 2012 Pan-GASS meeting in September 2012, 2013 GASS/MJOTF Workshop on Diabatic Processes of the MJO at CCRS, Singapore; 2014 GEWEX 7 th International Conference, Netherlands; 2014 WWRP Open Science Conference, 2014 US THORPEX Legacy Planning Workshop, NOAA Silver Spring Campus, MD. The 2011 YOTC International Science Symposium, followed by the 8th AMY International Workshop, was hosted by the CMA, Beijing, China and jointly supported by WCRP,

2 WWRP/THORPEX, GEO, CMA, THORPEX-China, and the Institute for Atmospheric Physics. A literature survey identified about 100 papers engaging the YOTC project; the complete listing is available on the YOTC website. Selected publications are itemized at the end of this report. A YOTC chapter is being prepared for the Predictability and Dynamical- Physical-Chemical Processes theme in a book based on the WWRP OSC 2104 meeting. The YOTC Project Office at NCAR has been supported by NSF, NOAA, and NASA via the US THORPEX Executive Committee (USTEC). 3. Collaborative Research YOTC/MJO Task Force/GASS multi-model project, which aims to evaluate the vertical structure of diabatic processes, has three parts: i) 20-year climate simulations; ii) 2-day hindcasts of two MJO events in El Nino climate condition during the Year ; iii) 20-day hindcasts to examine forecast skill ( The analyses of these results are led by scientists at UKMO, U. Reading and JPL. The databases will shortly be available to the external community. A hindcast of an MJO occurring during the recent DYNAMO field-campaign in the Indian Ocean has been identified as a follow-on effort. MJO Task Force (which grew out of the YOTC project and now, to retain continuity, is a Task Force of WGNE) initially focused on four subprojects: i) the above YOTC/MJO Task Force and GASS effort; ii) development of operational forecast metrics for boreal summer intraseasonal variability; iii) development and application of process-oriented diagnostics and metrics for GCM representations of the MJO; iv) development of metrics for the WGCM/WGNE Climate Metrics Panel. Papers have been written on item i) Jiang et al. (2014), Klingaman et al. (2014), Xavier et al. (2014), ii) by Lee et al. (2012), iii) Kim et al. (2014), and iv) by Sperber et al., (2012). MJO Task Force meetings were held in association with the 2011 WCRP OSC, the 2012 Pan-GASS meetings, and the 2013 International Monsoon Workshop in Macau. UK Cascade project has been completed. The results include simulations of MJO and the diurnal cycle of convection over the Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent region for the YOTC period. YOTC-ECMWF analyses were utilized for model initialization and lateral boundary conditions, and as virtual observations for comparison to model output. Results have been published by Love et al. (2011) and Holloway et al. (2012). The simulation output will be available to interested researchers. Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment, the first major multi-model hindcast experiment focused on subseasonal time scales, include hindcasts of the YOTC MJO, as a long-term hindcast dataset. This is a joint activity with the CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel (AAMP) and the Asian Monsoon Years (AMY), and is summarized at Initial papers have been completed on predictability and prediction skill for the MJO and eastern Pacific ISV, namely Neena et al. (2014 a,b). Transpose-AMIP is a joint activity between WGNE and WGCM. Hindcasts in Phase I were focused on the Southern Great Plains ARM site and the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Phase II involves the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP; cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5) and hindcasts of YOTC MJOs. DOE CAPT program led by S. Klein (PCMDI/DOE) utilizes hindcasts for the YOTC period. Xie et al. (2012) and Ma et al. ( 2012) performed 6-day hindcasts with CAM4 and CAM5. Metrics and diagnostics are being developed. Diagnosing causes of poor MJO simulation explore the ability of hindcasts with CAM5 to simulate the YOTC MJO 2

3 events (Ma et al. 2012). Aerosol-cloud interactions associated with the indirect effect have been estimated in CAM5 and field measurements (Zhao et al. 2012). 4. Research Outreach 5. NSF Science and Technology Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes (CMMAP), Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA. Center for Prototype Climate Modeling, NYU Abu Dhabi Institute, Abu Dhabi, UAE. Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (U. Melbourne, Monash University, U. New South Wales, and CAWCR). Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign in the Indian Ocean. Conclusion The YOTC project will formally end in December In view of its basic nature, and the challenge and opportunities that organized tropical convection poses for global models, collaborative efforts will continue, e.g., physical and dynamical aspects relating the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction project. The figure below summarizes the timeline and achievements of the YOTC project. Selected References Holloway, C. E., S. J. Woolnough, and G. M. S. Lister, 2012: Precipitation distributions for explicit versuss parameterized convection in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, Holloway, C. E., S. J. Woolnough, and G. M. S. Lister, 2013: The effects of explicit versus parameterized convectionn on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part I: Characterization of large-scale organization and propagation. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, Jiang, X., D. E. Waliser, P. K. Xavier, J. Petch, N. P. Klingaman, S. J. Woolnough, Bin Guan1, Gilles Bellon, T. Crueger, Charlotte DeMott, C. Hannay, H. Lin, W. Hu, D. Kim, 3

4 C.-L. Lappen, M.-M. Lu, H.-Y. Ma, T. Miyakawa, J. A. Ridout, S. D. Schubert, J. Scinocca, K.-H. Seo, E. Shindo, X. Song, C. Stan, W.-L. Tseng, W. Wang, T. Wu, K. Wyser, X. Wu, G. J. Zhang, and H. Zhu, 2014: Exploring Key Processes of the Madden- Julian Oscillation (MJO): A Joint WGNE MJO Task Force / GEWEX GASS Project on the Vertical Structure and Diabatic Processes of the MJO Part I. Climate Simulations. J. Geophys. Res., submitted. Kim, D., P. Xavier, E. Maloney, M. Wheeler, D. Waliser, K. Sperber, H. Hendon, C. Zhang, R. Neale, Y.-T. Hwang, and H. Liu (2014), Process-oriented MJO Simulation Diagnostic: Moisture Sensitivity of Simulated Convection. J. Climate, 27, Klingaman, N. P., S. J. Woolnough, X. Jiang, D. Waliser, P. K. Xavier, J. Petch, M. Caian, C. Hannay, D. Kim, H.-Y. Ma, W. J. Merryfield, T. Miyakawa, M. Pritchard, J. A. Ridout, R. Roehrig, E. Shindo, F. Vitart, H. Wang, N. R. Cavanaugh, B. E. Mapes, A. Shelly, and G. Zhang (2014), Vertical structure and diabatic processes of the Madden Julian Oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening. J. Geophys. Res., submitted. Lee, J.-Y., B. Wang, M. C. Wheeler, X. Fu, D. E. Waliser, and I.-S. Kang, 2012: Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region. Clim. Dyn.,40: DOI /s Love B.S., Matthews A. J, Lister GMS, 2011: The diurnal cycle of precipitation over the maritime continent in a high-resolution atmospheric model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, Love B.S., A.L. Matthews, A.J, and G.M.S. Lister, 2011: The diurnal cycle of precipitation over the maritime continent in a high-resolution atmospheric model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, Ma, H., S. Xie, J. Boyle, S. Klein, and Y. Zhang, 2012: Metrics and diagnostics for precipitation-related processes in climate model short-range hindcasts. J. Climate, 26, , doi: Moncrieff, M. W., 2010: The multiscale organization of moist convection and the intersection of weather and climate, in Climate Dynamics: Why Does Climate Vary?, Geophys. Monogr., 189, Amer. Geophys. Union, edited by D.-Z. Sun and F. Bryan, pp. 3 26, doi: /2008gm Moncrieff, M.W., and D.E. Waliser, 2014: The YOTC Project. Chapter in WWRP Open Science Conference book, in preparation. Moncrieff, M.W., M. Shapiro, J. Slingo, and F. Molteni, 2007: Collaborative research at the intersection of weather and climate. WMO Bulletin, 56, Moncrieff, M.W., D. E. Waliser, and J. Caughey: 2012: Progress and Direction in Tropical Convection Research, Meeting Summary, 1st YOTC Science Symposium, May 2011, Beijing, China., Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., DOI: /BAMS-D Moncrieff, M.W., D. E. Waliser, M. J. Miller, M. A. Shapiro, G. R. Asrar, J. Caughey: 2012: Multiscale convective organization and the YOTC Virtual Field Campaign, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, No 8, DOI: /BAMS-D Neena, J. M., J. Y. Lee, D. Waliser, B. Wang, and X. Jiang, 2014: Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE). J. Climate, 27, Neena, J. M., X. Jiang, D. Waliser, J. Y. Lee, and B. Wang, 2014: Eastern Pacific Intraseasonal Variability: A predictability perspective. J. Climate, in press. Oh, J-H, X. Jiang, D. E. Waliser, M.W. Moncrieff and R. H. Johnson, 2014: Convective momentum transport associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation based on a reanalysis dataset. J. Climate, in revision. 4

5 Petch, J., D. Waliser, X. Jiang, P. K. Xavier, and S. Woolnough, 2011: A Global Model Intercomparison of the Physical Processes Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. GEWEX News, August, pp 5. Sperber, K., and D. Kim, 2012: Simplified Metrics for the Identification of the Madden- Julian Oscillation in Models. Atmos. Sci. Lett, 13, DOI: /asl.378. Waliser, D.E., M.W. Moncrieff, 2008: Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Science Plan,WMO/TD-No. 1452, WCRP -130, WWRP/THORPEX- No 9, 26 pp. Waliser, D. E., and Co-authors, 2012: The "Year" of Tropical Convection (May 2008 to April 2010): Climate Variability and Weather Highlights. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, DOI: /2011BAMS Xie, S., H. Ma, J. Boyle, S. Klein, and Y. Zhang, 2012: On the Correspondence between Short- and Long- Timescale Systematic Errors in CAM4/CAM5 for the Years of Tropical Convection. J. Clim., 25, , doi: Zhao, C., S. A. Klein, S. Xie, X. Liu, J. S. Boyle, and Y. Zhang, 2012: Aerosol First Indirect effects on non-precipitating low-level liquid cloud properties as simulated by CAM5 at ARM sites, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L08806, DOI: /2012GL Zhang, C, J. Gottschalck, E. Maloney, M.W. Moncrieff, F. Vitart, M. Wheeler, D. Waliser, and B. Wang, 2013: Cracking the MJO nut. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1-8, DOI: /grl Xavier, P. K., J. C. Petch, N. P. Klingaman, S. J. Woolnough, X. Jiang, D. E. Waliser, M. Caian, S. M. Hagos, C. Hannay, D. Kim, J. Cole, T. Miyakawa, M. Pritchard, R. Roehrig, E. Shindo, F. Vitart, and H. Wang, 2014: Vertical structure and diabatic processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range. J. Geophys. Res., submitted. 5