Boundary layer Decoupling Affects on Tornadoes. Chris Karstens Meteorology 507 May 6, 2008
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1 Boundary layer Decoupling Affects on Tornadoes Chris Karstens Meteorology 507 May 6, 2008
2 Outline Background Motivation Methodology Results Conclusions References Questions
3 Blackadar (1957). Background Solar heating causes the PBL to become well mixed. Vertical transport of momentum, sub geostrophic winds. About 1 hour prior to sunset, net upward radiation flux reduces to zero. Nocturnal stable layer forms, decoupling the residual PBL from the surface.
4 Background The residual PBL is allowed to acceleration toward geostrophic balance through an inertial oscillation. Forms the low level jet. The effect of friction in the nocturnal stable layer is enhanced. Increases the ageostrophic component of the wind.
5 Background Storms developing in environments with large lowlevel shear values have a higher probability for producing tornadoes (Rasmussen and Blanchard, 1998). (Rasmussen and Blanchard, 1998)
6 Background Large spatial and temporal fluctuations in SRH can exist in the near storm environment (Markowski et al., 1998). Might offer an explanation as to why some storms produce tornadoes and why other do not. (Markowski and Richardson, 2007)
7 Background Hodograph structures from proximity soundings near significant tornadoes show similarities (Thompson and Edwards, 2000)(Miller, 2006). Kink in the hodograph, giving it a sickle shape. (Miller, 2006)
8 Motivation Theonsetofthelowleveljetcouldrapidlyalteran environment toward becoming more favorable for producing tornadoes. Is there any evidence of this phenomena? Historical tornado reports. Observed and model soundings.
9 Methodology Analysis of the historical tornado records. Each report has the location, latitude and longitude, the date, and the time (CDT) recorded. Using the lat, lon, & the date, the sunset for each location could be determined. This was used to normalized the reports. 0 = sunset 12 to 0 = before sunset 0 to 12 = after sunset Distributions were then constructed. Represented in ArcGIS, by CWA s.
10 Methodology Analysis of proximity soundings. February 5, 2008 outbreak. Analysis of 18 UTC and 00 UTC radiosondes. How the environment changed leading up to the event. Analysis of RUC and NAM model soundings. The model s depiction of how the environment changed. Hodographs from each sounding type are used to analyzed the low level shear.
11 Results Distribution of all tornado reports, normalized to sunset
12 Results 1 to 3 hours prior to sunset
13 Results 1 hour prior to 1 hour after sunset
14 Conclusions No apparent increase in the number of reports coincides with the time when the boundary layer decouples from the surface. Opposite trend is apparent. Coincides with peak solar heating. A significant number of reports occur after peak solar heat. Further investigation.
15 Results Distribution of Feb. 5, 2008 tornado reports, normalized to sunset
16 Results Little Rock, AR 18 Z Jackson, MS 18 Z
17 Results Nashville, TN 00 Z
18 Results Nashville, TN 21 Z RUC 21 UTC 22 UTC 23UTC 00 UTC
19 Conclusions Analysis of proximity soundings show supporting evidence that boundary layer decoupling could be rapidly enhancing low level shear. Could offer a possible explanation as to why the environment suddenly changes in favor of producing tornadoes. Might be particularly true for storms residing in the warm sector, where the Blackadar (1957) analytical solution of the low level jet is valid. A sickle shape hodograph is noted, but could be completely coincidental.
20 References Blackadar, A. K., 1957: Boundary layer wind maxima and their significance for the growth of nocturnal inversions, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 38, Markowski, P. M., J. M. Straka, E. N. Rasmussen, and D. O. Blanchard, 1998: Variability of storm relative helicity during VORTEX. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, Miller, D. J., 2006: Observations of low level thermodynamics and wind shear profiles on significant tornado days, Preprints, 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms, Saint Louis, MO. Rasmussen, E. N. and D. O. Blanchard, 1998: A baseline climatology of soundingderived supercell and tornado forecast parameters. Wea. Forecasting, 13, Thompson, R.L., and R. Edwards, 2000: An overview of environmental conditions and forecast implications of the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak. Wea. Forecasting, 15,
21 Questions
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